Women in Senate

[Vern]

How many women do you think will be in the Senate after the 2014 elections?

[publicunofficial]

I've answered this in another thread before, but the maximum number of senate seats won by women comes from this scenario

In order of likelihood:

1) Susan Collins survives re-election/doesn't become DHS Secretary/does become DHS Secretary but is replaced by a woman (18)
2) Kay Hagan is re-elected/is beaten by a female candidate like Ellmers (19)
3) Mary Landrieu wins re-election (20)
4) Shelley Moore Capito/Natalie Tennant wins in West Virginia (21)
5) Colleen Hanabusa beats Brian Schatz in the primary, wins the general election in Hawaii (22)
6) Karen Handel/Michelle Nunn wins in Georgia (23)
7) Alison Lundergan Grimes beats Mitch McConnell in Kentucky (24)
8 ) Denise Juneau runs for Senate in Montana, wins the GE (25)
9) Terri Lynn Land beats Gary Peters in Michigan (26)
10) Joni Ernst wins the primary and general elections in Iowa (27)


There are other possibilities (Jane Norton beating Mark Udall, Sarah Palin being a serious politician) but they are so unlikely I won't bother listing them.

All in all I'd estimate about 19-25 women in the Senate in the 114th Senate.

[free my dawg]

I've answered this in another thread before, but the maximum number of senate seats won by women comes from this scenario

In order of likelihood:

1) Susan Collins survives re-election/doesn't become DHS Secretary/does become DHS Secretary but is replaced by a woman (18)
2) Kay Hagan is re-elected/is beaten by a female candidate like Ellmers (19)
3) Mary Landrieu wins re-election (20)
4) Shelley Moore Capito/Natalie Tennant wins in West Virginia (21)
5) Colleen Hanabusa beats Brian Schatz in the primary, wins the general election in Hawaii (22)
6) Karen Handel/Michelle Nunn wins in Georgia (23)
7) Alison Lundergan Grimes beats Mitch McConnell in Kentucky (24)
8 ) Denise Juneau runs for Senate in Montana, wins the GE (25)
9) Terri Lynn Land beats Gary Peters in Michigan (26)
10) Joni Ernst wins the primary and general elections in Iowa (27)


There are other possibilities (Jane Norton beating Mark Udall, Sarah Palin being a serious politician) but they are so unlikely I won't bother listing them.

All in all I'd estimate about 19-25 women in the Senate in the 114th Senate.

Don't forget Liz Cheney too.

[publicunofficial]

I've answered this in another thread before, but the maximum number of senate seats won by women comes from this scenario

In order of likelihood:

1) Susan Collins survives re-election/doesn't become DHS Secretary/does become DHS Secretary but is replaced by a woman (18)
2) Kay Hagan is re-elected/is beaten by a female candidate like Ellmers (19)
3) Mary Landrieu wins re-election (20)
4) Shelley Moore Capito/Natalie Tennant wins in West Virginia (21)
5) Colleen Hanabusa beats Brian Schatz in the primary, wins the general election in Hawaii (22)
6) Karen Handel/Michelle Nunn wins in Georgia (23)
7) Alison Lundergan Grimes beats Mitch McConnell in Kentucky (24)
8 ) Denise Juneau runs for Senate in Montana, wins the GE (25)
9) Terri Lynn Land beats Gary Peters in Michigan (26)
10) Joni Ernst wins the primary and general elections in Iowa (27)


There are other possibilities (Jane Norton beating Mark Udall, Sarah Palin being a serious politician) but they are so unlikely I won't bother listing them.

All in all I'd estimate about 19-25 women in the Senate in the 114th Senate.

Don't forget Liz Cheney too.

Knew I was forgetting someone.


1) Susan Collins survives re-election/doesn't become DHS Secretary/does become DHS Secretary but is replaced by a woman (18)
2) Kay Hagan is re-elected/is beaten by a female candidate like Ellmers (19)
3) Mary Landrieu wins re-election (20)
4) Shelley Moore Capito/Natalie Tennant wins in West Virginia (21)
5) Colleen Hanabusa beats Brian Schatz in the primary, wins the general election in Hawaii (22)
6) Karen Handel/Michelle Nunn wins in Georgia (23)
7) Alison Lundergan Grimes beats Mitch McConnell in Kentucky (24)
8 ) Denise Juneau runs for Senate in Montana, wins the GE (25)
9) Liz Cheney beats Michael Enzi and her GE opponent in Wyoming (26)
9) Terri Lynn Land beats Gary Peters in Michigan (27)
10) Joni Ernst wins the primary and general elections in Iowa (28)

[hurricanehink]

As reported elsewhere on the forum, Michelle Nunn (D-GA) is now officially in. We'll see in the coming weeks how/if that changes anything. Per Wikipedia, she is one of only two declared candidates (the other being a doctor), so if she remains the only candidate in and doesn't have a major primary fight, she could do well when compared to what will likely be a fierce Rupublican primary.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Updated predictions on this?

[Tender Branson]

*bump*

Updated predictions on this?

18 (minimum)
25 (maximum)

For sure:

11 - Class 1
  5 - Class 3
  2 - ME (Collins/Bellows), WV (Capito/Tennant)

Embattled Class 2:

 3 - Landrieu, Shaheen, Hagan

Potential pickups:

 4 - GA, IA, KY, MI

Unlikely pickups:

 4 - MT, OK (S), OR, SC (S)

[Talleyrand]

It'll probably stay even; Hagan and Landrieu lose, and Capito and Ernest win. Possibly a gain of one if Land wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hagan or Landrieu lose, and Capito wins.

[ElectionsGuy]

Currently, we have 20. All of these are possible changes.

Likely pickups:

West Virginia (Capito, +1) (actually this is guaranteed since Tennant is also a woman)

In contention:

Louisiana (Landrieu, -1)
North Carolina (Hagan, -1)
Iowa (Ernst, +1)
Kentucky (Grimes, +1)
Georgia (Nunn, +1)

Unlikely pickups:

Michigan (Land, +1)
New Hampshire (Shaheen, -1)

Could be anywhere from -1 to +4. My prediction is a net zero gain (Landrieu loses and Capito wins)

[IceSpear]

Don't forget Liz Cheney too.

Heh