US with Indian constituencies

[Хahar 🤔]

State: number of seats (average size)

California: 15 (25,36,095)
Texas: 10 (26,05,920)
New York: 8 (24,46,283)
Florida: 8 (24,14,696)
Illinois: 5 (25,75,051)
Pennsylvania: 5 (25,52,707)
Ohio: 5 (23,08,845)
Georgia: 4 (24,79,986)
Michigan: 4 (24,70,840)
North Carolina: 4 (24,38,018)
New Jersey: 3 (29,54,863)
Virginia: 3 (27,28,622)
Washington: 3 (22,99,004)
Massachusetts: 3 (22,15,381)
Arizona: 3 (21,84,418)
Indiana: 3 (21,79,111)
Tennessee: 3 (21,52,081)
Missouri: 2 (30,10,994)
Maryland: 2 (29,42,282)
Wisconsin: 2 (28,63,199)
Minnesota: 2 (26,89,570)
Colorado: 2 (25,93,791)
Alabama: 2 (24,11,012)
South Carolina: 2 (23,61,862)
Louisiana: 2 (23,00,947)
Kentucky: 2 (21,90,208)
Oregon: 2 (19,49,677)
Oklahoma: 2 (19,07,410)
Connecticut: 1 (35,90,347)
Iowa: 1 (30,74,186)
Mississippi: 1 (29,84,926)
Arkansas: 1 (29,49,131)
Kansas: 1 (28,85,905)
Utah: 1 (28,55,287)
Nevada: 1 (27,58,931)
New Mexico: 1 (20,85,538)
Nebraska: 1 (18,55,525)
West Virginia: 1 (18,55,413)
Idaho: 1 (15,95,728)
Hawaii: 1 (13,92,313)
Maine: 1 (13,29,192)
New Hampshire: 1 (13,20,718)
Rhode Island: 1 (10,50,292)
Montana: 1 (10,05,141)
Delaware: 1 (9,17,092)
South Dakota: 1 (8,33,354)
Alaska: 1 (7,31,449)
North Dakota: 1 (6,99,628)
Vermont: 1 (6,26,011)
Wyoming: 1 (5,76,412)

[Linus Van Pelt]

What's with the comma before five digits, rather than six?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Indian style numbers place the commas there.  After the thousand, the next largest named number is the lakh which is 1,00,000 and then the crore which is 1,00,00,000, the arab which is 1,00,00,00,000 and so forth.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Indian style numbers place the commas there.  After the thousand, the next largest named number is the lakh which is 1,00,000 and then the crore which is 1,00,00,000, the arab which is 1,00,00,00,000 and so forth.

Oh thanks, that's interesting. (Now that you mention it, I remember this terminology from the passages in A Suitable Boy involving the math prodigy nephew, but I didn't make the connection here, or realize it was written that way)

[minionofmidas]

While the intra-state apportionment needs to be done on 2001 numbers, the seats per state should be based on the 1961 (or 71, I forget) census.

Now draw the districts. They should be built of segments (state assembly districts) but mildly gerrymandered anyways.

[traininthedistance]

Joisey.

While the intra-state apportionment needs to be done on 2001 numbers, the seats per state should be based on the 1961 (or 71, I forget) census.

Now draw the districts. They should be built of segments (state assembly districts) but mildly gerrymandered anyways.

Whee, giant districts are easy-peasy.  Not bothering with using state assembly districts here tho since 3 doesn't divide into 40.



District 1- South (and part of Central, if you believe it exists) Jersey- is 56.4% Obama, 53.9% Dem.  Lean Dem.
District 2- Central and Northwest- is 52.4% Obama, and 49.4% Dem.  Tossup, maybe even a Pub tilt.
District 3- the urban Northeast- is 64.6% O, 63.6% Dem.  45% White VAP.  Safe D, of course.

District 1 is 111 folks overpopulated, and the others are even closer.

[traininthedistance]

Virginia, cause these districts are just that quick to draw.  



Compact and whole counties (max deviation is +904), but at the expense of separating Chesterfield from the rest of the Richmond metro.  (Which is a metro that must be split, given that NoVA and Hampton Roads are both larger, and in corners.)

Sensible min-maj districts are of course impossible at this size.  1 and 2 are both around 60 percent white, 'bout as good as you can get without heavy gerrymandering.

1: NoVA. 58.7% O, 53.8% D.  Lean D.
2: Hampton Roads-Tidewater-Richmond.  55.8% O, 51.2% D.  I guess still Lean D?  Closer to Tossup though.  30 percent black, not a maxpack but pretty much the best you can do with whole counties.
3: Western.  43.6% O, 42.7% D.  Safe R.

[traininthedistance]

Once you pop you can't stop. Colorado.



Deviations are plus and minus 1,851. 

1: Denver Metro. 57.8% Obama/51.7% Dem.  Entirely within the metro, some outlying and CSA area goes to 2.  Lean D.
2:  Rest o' the state.  49.6% O/45.0% D.  Lean R.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota:



1: 59.1% O 57.6% D. Basically the metro minus exurbs. Safe D.
2: 48.8% O 50.4% D. Rest of state. Voted for McCain by about a thousand votes. Probably for Romney by about two points. Call it a Toss Up, especially with the type of candidate the GOP is likely to nominate.

[ilikeverin]

Minnesota:



1: 59.1% O 57.6% D. Basically the metro minus exurbs. Safe D.
2: 48.8% O 50.4% D. Rest of state. Voted for McCain by about a thousand votes. Probably for Romney by about two points. Call it a Toss Up, especially with the type of candidate the GOP is likely to nominate.

Wow, that maps absurdly well to my mental map of the suburb/exurb distinction in the Twin Cities Metro, except for there maybe being a little more of Washington County counted as a "suburb".

[traininthedistance]

Arizona.  For once, towns are split, because, hey, a Hispanic VAP plurality district is possible.  And given the craziness that is AZ, they deserve one.





Max deviation 102.

District 1: NON-MARICOPA.  Yeah.  44.4% O, 43.2% D.  In most states these numbers are Safe R, but of course a crazy vs. the doggiest of Blue Dogs could put it into play.
District 2: EL NORTE.  55.4% O, 55.5% D.  Hispanic-majoirty by total population, but merely plurality by VAP (44.1 to 42.7).  Safe(ish) D.
District 3: ARPAIOLAND. 39.7% O, 37.4% D.  Safe R for even the craziest.

[traininthedistance]

Tennessee.



Max deviation 463.  Obviously one starts with the Grand Divisions and then shifts the lines east, since the West needs people and the East has too many. 

1: East TN.  33.5% O, 39.2% D.  The most consistently R area of the nation, safe since Reconstruction.
2. Middle TN. 42.0% O, 47.6% D.  I assume that the ancestral Blue Dog tendencies in the rural parts are just gone, and this is probably Safe R going forward.  I mean, even Scott desJarlais got re-elected.
3. West TN. 49.9% O, 51.8% D.  West TN itself is still legitimately Dem-leaning, b/c of Memphis.  But you have to go pretty far into Middle TN.  30% Black VAP, Tossup.

[traininthedistance]

There are two basic ways to draw Maryland.  You can either split it into a Washington district and a Baltimore district, or you can try and pack blacks.



Deviations 901.

District 1: Washington Metro, South, and West.  68.2% O, 68.1% D.  Min-maj by total population but just barely white-majority by VAP.  Safe D of course.
District 2: Baltimore and Eastern Shore. 56.3% O, 57.7% D.  Lean D.

Or...

 

Deviations 250. 

District 1: South. 70.6% O, 70.5% D. Black-plurality- 44.7% VAP compared to 42.5% White VAP.  You can finesse things more if you get real ugly, but I don't think 50% is actually possible.
District 2. North.  54.0% O, 55.9% D.  Lean D, but getting closer to even. 

Obviously, I prefer the first option. 

[Brittain33]

You can't put Minneapolis and St. Paul in the same district!

[Miles]

[traininthedistance]

You knew this was coming.  New Yawk.





Max deviation 1,065.

District 1: LAWN GUYLAND.  O 53.0%, D 55.0%.  Oyster Bay town is split, something has to be in Nassau.  Lean D.

District 2: JAMAICA BAY.  O 87.6%, D 88.7%.  Before drawing this, I was thinking "there are probably only three places in the country where districts of this size can make compact black-majority districts- here in NYC, South Side Chicago, and the southern half of the Atlanta metro".  Now I'm convinced that only the Atlanta one has any chance of actually working.  This is 46.1% Black by VAP and will certainly elect an AA rep anyway (whites and Hispanics are about even at 21 percent each).  Black-majority is possible if you get real ugly... but you have to basically make a block-long snake up into Central Harlem, and I was not about to do that.  Rather keep this district strictly Brooklyn-Queens, and 4 out of Brooklyn.  Safe D obv.

District 3: NEW YORK HARBOR. O 69.4%, D 69.5%.  There are three all-NYC districts, each named after bodies of water for lack of a better idea, and this is obviously the "white" one.  Most of Manhattan, all of Staten Island, and the white parts of Brooklyn (minus Williamsburg/Greenpoint).  Sizable Hispanic and Asian minorities here, each about 15 percent.  Safe D.

District 4: HARLEM RIVER.  O 87.1%, D 87.8%. And this is the Hispanic district.  51.0% by VAP.  Also the smallest district in the nation, no doubt.  Safe D again.

District 5: LONG ISLAND SOUND-TAPPAN ZEE.  O 62.7%, D 64.1%.  By connecting the Nassau North Shore to (most of) Westchester/Rockland via north Queens and Bronx, we keep three all-NYC districts.  Very diverse: 52.8% VAP white, 13.1 black, 17.0 Hispanic, 15.5 Asian.  I decided I'd rather split both Westchester and Rockland than split a town.  Safe D.

District 6: HUDSON VALLEY-CATSKILLS-CAPITAL.  O 54.0%, D 55.5%.  As is says on the tin.  Schoharie County (part of 7) should be here since it's part of the Albany Metro, but hey, it keeps the 6-7 line to whole counties.  Lean D.

District 7: UPSTATE NORTH AND CENTRAL.  O 52.6% D 54.1%.  Lots o' area.  North Country, Syracuse, Rome/Utica, Binghamton, Ithaca, most of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, even encroaching into the Rochester fringe.  The most Republican district in the state, so let's say Tossup, though all of the non-NYC districts are really best described as competitive but with a Dem tilt.

District 8: WEST NY.  O 54.5%, D 52.1%.  Buffalo, Rochester, Holland Purchase, some Southern Tier.  The lower D average is largely due to the regional effect of the Carl Paladino candidacy, where he was uniquely strong here and uniquely dreadful everywhere else, so as with the other districts I'm more inclined to believe the Obama numbers.  Lean D.

[TJ in Oregon]

OH-IO:



District 1: Cincinnati and Dayton- McCain 52.9-45.9, 54.8% R

My goal here was to put Cincinnati, Dayton, and all their suburbs into one district. It turned out to be just about the right size. As expected for the SW OH district, it's quite Republican. Safe R.

District 2: Columbus and southern Ohio- Obama 50.6-47.9, 52.5% D

This is probably my least favorite district of the five as it ends up with the Columbus metro area and the leftovers in SE Ohio that don't fit anywhere else. I'd rather make this truly centered on Columbus, but the numbers don't add up that way without making another seat quite ugly. The partisan numbers here come out slightly favorable to the Republicans (the 52.5% D is from a Democratic wave) but certainly not safely Republican. Lean R.

District 3: Clevelandia- Obama 60.9-37.8, 63.8% D

I tried to make this a strictly Cleveland (not Cleveland-Akron seat) but came up 300k short so I had to include Medina County and parts of Summit and Portage. Every once in a while someone in Cleveland half-joking suggests seceding from Ohio to form Clevelandia. Here is a shrunken version of what it would look like. Safe D.

District 4: NW Ohio- McCain 52.0-46.1, 50.8% R

This is the NW OH/anything that could be attached to it without looking ridiculous seat. It includes a lot of automotive areas and a lot of super Republican rural areas. Safe R.

District 5: Akron-Canton-Youngstown-SE OH- Obama 53.7-44.3, 62.2% D

I managed to get most of the Akron area, as well as Canton and the Mahoning Valley all in this seat, but was then forced to gobble up a bit more than half of SE Ohio. It comes out to a Democratic leaning, but not overwhelmingly Democratic seat with a lot of SE OH style Dems. Lean D.

[traininthedistance]

Georgia on my mind. 



Max deviation 999.

District 1: SOUTH GEORGIA.  O 46.4%, D 49.2%.  34.7% Black VAP; Georgia affords a pretty unique opportunity to have two districts with a substantial AA percentage, and it only seemed right to take it.  Lean R anyway, though of course there's an opening for a Blue Dog.
District 2: METRO ATLANTA SOUTH-MACON.  O 67.8%, D 66.3%.  54% Black VAP, without a doubt this is the most heavily-black constituency to be found in America.  Is it the only black-majority district to be made at all?  We'll see what happens in Illinois.  Cobb, Fulton, and DeKalb are all split to facilitate this, as well as the arm down to Macon.  Safe D.
District 3: METRO ATLANTA NORTH.  O 43.0%, D 39.1%.  The Atlanta metro extends out to ginormous exurban lengths, but this district has the core of it, or at least its non-black parts.  Probably trending D, but still Safe R for awhile.
District 4: NORTH GEORGIA. O 30.1%, D 34.7%.  And the rest.  Safe R.

[traininthedistance]

Lookie here, it's South Carolina in whole counties and a whopping deviation of fifteen!



District 1: LOWCOUNTRY.  O 52.6%, D 49.0%.  33.6% Black VAP.  I wasn't even trying for an Obama district, honest officer!  Tossup.
District 2: UPCOUNTRY.  O 37.1%, D 35.5%.  Safe R, duh.

Of course I don't see the Republicans going for this (not that they'd go for a lot of the other fair maps, but they might even be able to convince an independent panel on this one), and it does have the legitimate disadvantage of slicing right through the heart of the Columbia metro.  So here's an alternate:



Deviations 2,437.

Lowcountry is now 48.6% Obama/44.8% Dem, 30% black VAP, and let's say lean R.  Upcountry is 41.1% O/39.6% D, less black, and safe R still.  The Columbia metro is still technically split, but the central urbanized area is whole at least.

[traininthedistance]

Ha, an appropriate use of LSU colors!

There isn't any way to get a compact(ish) black-plurality district in LA with districts this size, is there?

[Miles]

Ha, an appropriate use of LSU colors!

There isn't any way to get a compact(ish) black-plurality district in LA with districts this size, is there?

Haha

I probably should have had a bit of analysis of my maps when I posted them. For LA, my first draft had Baton Rouge and New Orleans in the same district for an east-west split:



I guess there is some precedent for that, given the current LA-02. The black population in the eastern district would be 32%.

I think there would be some local pushback to putting New Orleans and Baton Rouge in the same district. Also given the state's cultural geography, it made more sense to put New Orleans with Acadiana (for a 'Catholic' district) and Baton Rouge with the rest of the north.

[Franknburger]

Great job so far, guys! Curious to see what you will do with California and Texas.

To continue the thought experiment a bit further: How about assigning the constituencies in Japanese or Luxembourg style, i.e. having several seats per constituency (say 4 in the larger states/constituencies, down to 1-2 in the smaller ones). The first seat would be allocated FPTP, the remaining ones could either be PR (Luxembourg), or by some multiple-vote FPTP mechanism as applied in Japan, Malta and probably a few other places. Wouldn't that put an end to most of the gerrymandering debate, and promote electoral competition even within the "safe" constituencies?

[traininthedistance]

Flo Rida.



Max deviation 779.  The northern 4 districts are one group, the southern 4 another.  No cities are split.  The black population is too spread out to get a district here, but you can bet there's a Hispanic district.

District 1: NORTHWEST-PANHANDLE.  O 40.6%.  Pensacola, Tallahassee, Gulf Coast some areas north of Tampa Bay, etc.  The northernmost, and therefore, most "Southern" district here.  Safe R.
District 2: JACKSONVILLE-NORTH CENTRAL.  O 46.3%.  Jax, St. Augustine, Gainesville, Ocala, Daytona Beach, etc.  A lot closer (and 17% Black VAP FWIW, second-highest in the state), but still Safe R.
District 3: ORLANDO METRO.  O 53.6%.  All of the Orlando MSA, and entirely within the Orlando CSA.  Basically just takes all of Deltona from Volusia for its one county split.  Only 59% White VAP, with 13% Black and 22% Hispanic.  Tossup.
District 4: TAMPA BAY.  O 53.6%.  Tampa, St. Pete, and the most urban part of Pasco, entirely within the metro.  70% White, 11% Black, 15% Hispanic.  Another Tossup, fitting for the I-4 Corridor, the state's prime swing region.
District 5: LAKE-SUNCOAST.  O 46.0%.  Lakeland/Winter Haven, Sarasota, Cape Coral, Ft. Myers, Naples.  Safe R.
District 6: SPACE COAST-TREASURE COAST-PALM BEACH.  O 54.1%.  72% White, 12% Black, 13% Hispanic.  Down the developed coast.  Sort of on the border between Tossup and Lean D.
District 7: BROWARD-LAKE OKECHOBEE.  O 65.5%.  Only 45% White VAP, with 24% black and 26% Hispanic.  The decision to put the Florida Heartland here instead of in 6, and to split Palm Beach east-west rather than north-south, was out of a desire to get the Okechobee area in one district, and a realization that the inevitable Collier split fit better here, and also the fact that there is actually quite a large minority population inland in places like Belle Glade and Immokalee, so best to put them in this min-maj district.  Anyway, Safe D, the only one in the state.
District 8: MIAMI-DADE-KEYS.  O 55.5%.  Monroe and the vast majority of Miami-Dade.  67% Hispanic VAP!  (18% White and 13% Black.)  Of course, a lot of that is Cubans, and it will be beaten in South Texas anyway.  I wonder about possibly splitting 7 and 8 so that 7 takes Monroe and western Dade, while 8 stays entirely within the county; there are multiple possibilities.  Anyway, Lean D.

[traininthedistance]

Several alternate versions of South Florida are possible (I'm pretty satisfied with Districts 1 through 5).  Here's three of them.

First, you can keep 7 within the Miami metro, and give the rural parts to 6.  This is the Pub-favoring alternative.



6: SPACE COAST-TREASURE COAST-OKECHOBEE is now 51.8% Obama, 69W/12B/16H by VAP.  Still Tossup, but more Pub than before.
7: BROWARD-BOCA is 67.2% Obama, and still min-maj at 48W/23B/24H.  Super safe D.
8: MIAMI-DADE-KEYS takes in some empty land but remains basically unchanged, heavily-Hispanic and Lean D.

The Dems would prefer a change that kept 8 entirely within Miami-Dade instead:



6 is the same as the original, an arguably Dem-tilting Tossup.
7: BROWARD-OKECHOBEE-EVERGLADES is down to 63.2% Obama, and 48W/21B/26H. Still Safe D of course.
8: MIAMI-DADE is now 58.1% Obama, and is now 15W/16B/67H.  Still plenty Hispanic, and still Lean D, but a very strong lean now, closer to safe.


Or, you can keep Okechobee in 6 and split Palm Beach north-south, but also have a Miami-Dade district.  In this case it probably makes more sense for the remainder of Collier to go in 7 to unite the Everglades along I-75 and the Tamiami Trail.



6: SPACE COAST-TREASURE COAST-OKECHOBEE is 52.9% Obama, 70W/13B/15H.  Still a tossup.
7: BROWARD-BOCA-EVERGLADES-KEYS is now 64.1% Obama, 50W/20B/25H.  Still min-maj by total population, but no longer by VAP.  Safe D as always.
8: MIAMI-DADE remains 58.1% O, 15W/16B/67H.  Strong Lean D.

…

All four of these alternatives are reasonable.  I think I still like the original version best, though the last one has some appeal as well.

[traininthedistance]

Penn's Woods.



Max deviation 802.

District 1: PHILLY-DELCO-CHESTER.  O 72.3%, D 70.6%.  55% White VAP, 29% Black.  The Philly-Reading CSA plus the Lehigh Valley is pretty close to two districts, and is definitely the logical way to combine SEPA.  The most compact and county-conserving way to split them is north-south, so here you have it.  Safe D.
District 2: MONTCO-BUCKS-READING-LEHIGH.  O 56.4%, D 53.7%.  The rest of the Delaware Valley, etc.  Carbon is the best split (and it's a small split, less than 10K) on the grounds that it's part of the Allentown-Bethlehem metro, but it's also outlying and of a piece with NE Pennsylvania as well.  Lean D.
District 3: SOUTH CENTRAL.  O 42.3%, D 39.6%.  Harrisburg-York-Lancaster, Altoona, Johnstown, the southern bits of the T.  Safe R of course.
District 4: NORTHERN PA.  O 49.9%, D 48.7%.  Northeast PA, State College, Northern Tier, Erie.  Obama won this narrowly in 2008, certainly not in 2012, Lean R sounds right.
District 5: PITTSBURGH-SOUTHWEST.  O 50.7%, D 54.6%.  Romney probably narrowly won this in 2012, it's an interesting question whether the ancestral Dem strength here can bounce back or not.  Tossup.