Ultra Vulnerable Mark Kirk 2016: Is he Toast?

[Dixie Reborn]

Kirk will probably be the Mark Pryor of 2016. He'll be one of the Democrats' top targets, but will still put up a fight. It's too early to write him off.

I thought you already wrote Pryor off.

You thought incorrect.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kirk has to be considered the underdog, he's running in a very democratic state, the democrats have a rather wide bench of strong potential challengers and 2016 isn't going to be like 2010. While a weak opponent, a number of mistakes by said opponent, or a republican electoral college victory of >290 could all carry Kirk over the top, for now his chances of being reelected are at best about 35%.


Here's a list of potential challengers from Wikipedia, slightly edited:

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[henster]

If Lisa Madigan is in the race is over I wouldn't be surprised if Kirk announces his retirement if she announces. Duckworth would be a good candidate as well negates the sympathy factor Kirk has because of his stroke.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Lisa Madigan the race is over I wouldn't be surprised if Kirk announces his retirement if she announces. Duckworth would be a good candidate as well negates the sympathy factor Kirk has because of his stroke.

Nah, Kirk's gonna stay in, he knows he's a far better candidate for the GOP than Rep. Adam Kinzinger or Rep. Aaron Schock. Plus if he ever decides he wants to run for governor or president, he probably doesn't want to be viewed as someone who 'gave away' a senate seat to the democrats.

[free my dawg]

The Senate needs Jan Schakowsky.

[Mister Mets]

With his stroke and all, Mark Kirk should have resigned/retired mid-term to focus on his recovery.

I wonder if his stroke and health will be brought up in 2016.

That gets complex since he got a lot of credit for the positive message of a guy going back to work after a stroke.

A lot of people know someone who has had a stroke, so concern-trolling about Kirk's health does not seem like a good strategy.

Ignoring the issue and focusing on political differences is probably the way to go.

Democrats should also make sure they have a candidate worth voting for. This has helped Al Franken and Elizabeth Warren, both of whom defeated reasonably talented moderates and gone on to be favorites of the base.

[Vega]

A couple of years ago, Rahm Emanuel could have been in contention for this seat... but I don't see that happening now. He's angered too many people.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't see Lisa Madigan running for anything except IL AG (or other statewide offices if there are term-limits) until she's ready for Governor.  Mike Quigley is definitely the best realistic candidate and could certainly beat Kirk.  I don't know why the national Democratic establishment has been so madly in love with Duckworth since she ran against Roskam in 2006.  She's okay and has a great story, but the level of national support for her has still always seemed a bit odd.  I know she was very closely aligned with Rahm Emmanuel, so that might be it.  I hope the national party doesn't force Quigley aside like they did with Krishnamorphi (or whatever his name was) in 2012.  Foster won't run and Enyart, Bustos, and the Democrat running for Treasurer are all from downstate, so they're out.  Simon strikes me as sort of the default generic candidate if none of the top-tier candidates run and besides, isn't she from Carbondale?  I think it'll be Quigley or Duckworth, hopefully the former.