Ultra Vulnerable Mark Kirk 2016: Is he Toast?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

He could, but he would have to campaign for Senate while still serving as the President. That would be bad.

Remember, he campaigned for President while serving as President.

[badgate]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

He could, but he would have to campaign for Senate while still serving as the President. That would be bad.

Down in Texas we call it "tacky." Hence my belief that it'd diminish his influence.

[publicunofficial]

It'd be cool if Obama ran in 2020 when Durbin likely retires, but that's off topic.

[Ogre Mage]

I don't think Michelle Obama will run for Senate either.  However, a PPP poll had her leading Sen. Kirk 51-40, which suggests Kirk's political standing is not very strong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Simon or Quigley will run a spirited campaign against Kirk in a lean state like Illinois prez. Madigan will run if Hillary sees herself having to put resources in Illinois for prez. But Hillary herself is the only one that can get Madigan to run and that would be my dream ticket. Obamas will work on their prez library for the foreseeable future in Hyde Patk. Whoever big name doesn't run this time will run against a tea party candidate when Durbin retires.

[Aliens]

I'm a fan of Quigley but I think it would be a very close race against Kirk.

[PolitiJunkie]

In the timeline I'm writing, Shaun Donovan is offered is offered a professorship at Harvard in 2015, his alma mater, and Obama, looking to demonstrate bipartisanship without sacrificing ideals by appointing a moderate Republican to his cabinet, taps Mark Kirk for HUD Secretary. Governor Madigan (beat Daley in the Democratic Primary when Quinn declined to seek reelection) appoints Sheila Simon as a placeholder for the rest of the term who won't seek reelection in 2016, and then Michelle Obama defeats Aaron Schock for the seat 61-39 in the regular 2016 election. Sounds like a long-winded chain of events, but I wanted a way for that seat to be a Democratic pickup without having to actually defeat Mark Kirk, one of the few tolerable Republicans in the Senate (he's just so nice and moderate).

[publicunofficial]

Kirk plans on running in 2016, but acknowledges it will be a tough race and states that Scott Brown's loss is fresh in his mind.

[sg0508]

The odds are certainly against him and his health won't help matters. 

1) Presidential year
2) More democrats will be going to the polls
3) He BARELY won in 2010 in a strong GOP year with a very weak democratic challenger.
4) IL is almost certainly to go democratic at the top of the ticket and likely by at least 12-13 points.

It's going to be very, very tough.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't think he should run again. I would rather see him retire and run for Governor in 2018 if the climate is more friendly to the GOP.

[sg0508]

One thing he does have going for him is that he was from the "collar" counties (I believe), the key swing counties and he does have good name recognition in the state, which could help him.  Unlike Fitzgerald whom many didn't know when he ran and won, I would think most people in IL know who Mark Kirk is.

[eric82oslo]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

I think he'd rather want to be Secretary of State to be honest.

[eric82oslo]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

He could. Andrew Johnson did it, and John Quincy Adams served in the House. However, it's not going to happen. I also think Michelle running is a liberal dream too. It'd be nice, and someone of her statue could probably win, but also extremely wishful thinking.

She won't run in 2016 obviously, but maybe at the next crossroads? 2020 is it? Just like Hillary ran for the Senate in 2002.

[badgate]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

He could. Andrew Johnson did it, and John Quincy Adams served in the House. However, it's not going to happen. I also think Michelle running is a liberal dream too. It'd be nice, and someone of her statue could probably win, but also extremely wishful thinking.

She won't run in 2016 obviously, but maybe at the next crossroads? 2020 is it? Just like Hillary ran for the Senate in 2002.

Hillary ran in 2000.

[Vosem]

Can't Obama come back and run? Does he want to?

He could. Andrew Johnson did it, and John Quincy Adams served in the House. However, it's not going to happen. I also think Michelle running is a liberal dream too. It'd be nice, and someone of her statue could probably win, but also extremely wishful thinking.

She won't run in 2016 obviously, but maybe at the next crossroads? 2020 is it? Just like Hillary ran for the Senate in 2002.

Hillary ran in 2000, and for a very brief period in January 2001 (because the new Congress is sworn in before the new President) served as Senator and First Lady simultaneously.

[Aliens]

In terms of candidates we haven't mentioned yet, I really wouldn't be surprised if Dan Hynes or Debbie Halvorson ran for it.

[badgate]

I could support Robin Kelly. She's lost statewide before for Treasurer but not by a lot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Halverson is pro 2nd amendment, Kirk voted for the Background check compromise. Kelly is too fresh a face to run. It is gonna be, in order of interest: Duckworth, Simon(should she lose to Topinka), Quigley, or Madigan.

[Suburbia]

I think Alexi Giannoulias should run again. He's young, looks like a future leader, and is vetted. Attorney General Madigan may run for governor in 2018 or 2022 (depending on whether Gov. Quinn is re-elected in 2014)

[Pandaguineapig]

While the state demographics are against Kirk, it is important to realize that all of the potential D challengers are seriously flawed

[Dixie Reborn]

Kirk will probably be the Mark Pryor of 2016. He'll be one of the Democrats' top targets, but will still put up a fight. It's too early to write him off.

[illegaloperation]

Kirk will probably be the Mark Pryor of 2016. He'll be one of the Democrats' top targets, but will still put up a fight. It's too early to write him off.

I thought you already wrote Pryor off.

[IceSpear]

I think Alexi Giannoulias should run again. He's young, looks like a future leader, and is vetted. Attorney General Madigan may run for governor in 2018 or 2022 (depending on whether Gov. Quinn is re-elected in 2014)

Uh, what? Giannoulias's corruption is the only reason this seat went Republican to begin with (well, that and the GOP wave).

Also, I don't know where this myth came from that Kirk is some uber popular and beloved figure. The guy got hammered for lying about his military record in 2010 and had a horrible favorability rating. He won as the lesser two evils, not as an above the fray moderate hero.

[Vega]

With his stroke and all, Mark Kirk should have resigned/retired mid-term to focus on his recovery.

I wonder if his stroke and health will be brought up in 2016.

[Free Bird]

Ahh, beaten to the punch by Sawx.

But yeah pretty much that. At the moment there are no major candidates that could jump in and wreak havoc, like Russ Feingold very well may do with Johnson in WI. Since it's such a Democratic state, I'll put this as a Lean D state, but Kirk is a moderate and hasn't done much to anger the electorate.

Yeah, he really has done things for his state and been moderate, after all he was on of the few R's to vote for background checks.

He's also pro-gay marriage and pro-immigration reform. It's a shame he's in Illinois because he's one of the few Republicans I'm sad to see become vulnerable.

Good for him, unfortunately when it comes 2016 it'll be Chicago vs. Rest of State just like 2010.

And every Presidential election in the past 20 years