From D.C. to Utah - partisan statistics on a state level from 1964 to 2012
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:27:59 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  From D.C. to Utah - partisan statistics on a state level from 1964 to 2012
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: From D.C. to Utah - partisan statistics on a state level from 1964 to 2012  (Read 1220 times)
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 23, 2013, 07:26:28 PM »
« edited: July 23, 2013, 10:34:46 PM by eric82oslo »

The past couple of days I've been ranking every state on a partisan scale from 1 (most Democratic) to 51 (most Republican) in every presidential election going back to 1964. I decided to start with 1964, since that was the first election held after Lyndon B. Johnson signed the landmark Votin Rights Act (and other civil rights legislation perhaps). As he himself stated at the time of the signing, he expected his own party to lose the south for the next generation. This means that I've analyzed 13 elections. The 1968 electio gave me a small head ache due to the third party candidacy of the infamously populist and segragationist Alabama Governor George Wallace. He received an absolute majority in 2 states (Mississippi & Alabama), came very close in Louisiana as well (48%) and won the election and thus received all the electoral votes in a total of 5 southern states. He also came close to winning in a number of other states, in particular in Tennessee, the Carolinas and Florida. He was on the ballot in every single state except for Washington D.C., where he wouldn't have won many votes in any case. Hawaii, was his weakest state, where only 1.47% of its voters approved of his provocative messaging. Maine had a similar result.

Enough of 1968. What I came to discover was a remarkably stable political landscape. 17 of the 51 states (we count D.C. as state here even though it technically isn't [yet]) have landed on the Democratic half or on the Republican half of states in every single of the 13 elections. That means one in three states, leaving only two thirds of states having some ambiguity in their voting preferences. The very most stable "state" was undoubtedly Washington D.C., which was (by far) the most Democratic leaning state in all of the 13 elections. On the other hand we have Georgia, which has fluctuated wildly. On average, talking from a historical point of view (when looking back at the last 50 years), Georgia has been one of the absolutely most moderate states in partisan politics. It has tilted only slightly Republican, on average. However, in two elections, Georgia was in fact the most Democratic voting of all states and second only to Washington D.C.. This coincided of course with the candidacy of homegrown son Jimmy Carter. However, just in the previous election, in 1972, it had in fact been the second most conservative or Republican state in the nation, only beaten by an even more staunch Mississippi. Unsurprisingly, no other state has even come close to being so reliably unreliable, and even less so between two consecutive elections. The most stable state on the Republican side, has for a long time been Utah. In fact, Utah has been the most Republican leaning state in no less than 8 of the last 13 elections.

Let's get to work and start off with some historical statistics. If anyone spot some odd and strange numbers, I promise that I will double check my data. For the sake of argument, I've divided all states into two parts, 25 states which I call Democratic leaning for each election and another 25 states which is considered Republican leaning. The leftover state, number 26 from each partisan rank, is considered the median, without partisan affiliation for that election. In fact bellwether Ohio has been the median state in 3 of the last 5 elections, including the last two elections. Impressive. A median state has almost never been the decisive state in terms of the Elector College or the popular vote though, since Democratic leaning states on average have larger population than Republican leaning states.


Average partisan voting for states in presidential elections 1964-2012
(on a scale from 1, Democratic, to 51, Republican)

1.   Washington D.C. – 1
2.   Rhode Island – 3.62
3.   Massachusetts - 4
4.   New York – 8.08
5.   Hawaii – 8.69
6.   Maryland – 10.38
7.   Minnesota – 10.92
8.   Vermont – 15.46
9.   Illinois – 15.54
10.   Maine – 15.54
11.   Connecticut – 15.69
12.   Delaware – 16.85
13.   Washington - 17
14.   California – 17.08
15.   Pennsylvania – 17.08
16.   Oregon – 17.46
17.   Michigan – 17.46
18.   Wisconsin – 18.38
19.   West Virginia – 18.46
20.   New Jersey – 20.38
21.   Iowa – 20.69
22.   Missouri – 22.31
23.   Ohio - 24
24.   New Mexico – 24.54
25.   Arkansas – 25.23
(closest to being the perennial median state)
26.   Kentucky – 28.69
27.   Louisiana – 28.85
28.   Tennessee - 29
29.   Georgia – 29.62
30.   Colorado – 30.69
31.   North Carolina – 31.15
32.   New Hampshire – 31.23
33.   Nevada – 31.31
34.   Montana – 32.46
35.   Texas – 32.62
36.   Florida – 32.92
37.   Virginia – 33.62
38.   Alabama – 34.85
39.   Mississippi – 34.92
40.   South Dakota - 35
41.   South Carolina – 35.69
42.   Indiana – 37.08
43.   Arizona – 37.92
44.   Alaska – 38.77
45.   North Dakota – 40.77
46.   Kansas – 41.38
47.   Oklahoma – 43.15
48.   Wyoming – 46.15
49.   Nebraska – 47
50.   Idaho – 48.23
51.   Utah – 49.08


As we can see from these statistics above, the three states of Arkansas, New Mexico and Ohio have been the least partisan during these 50 years of late. Missouri, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia and New Jersey should also be mentioned in this category. Neither of those have, on average, been strongly partisan.

The next statistical field that I've generated deals with the partisan makeup of the 2012 election, and how the voting on the state level compared to the average partisan voting of each states during the past 13 elections. As you will see, unsurprisingly, some states have been trending wildly lately.


States with the clearest 2012 trend relative to states’ average voting between 1964-2012

1.   West Virginia: 28.5 places more Republican
2.   Arkansas: 18.8 places more R
3.   Kentucky: 16.3 R
4.   Vermont: 12.5 places more Democratic
5.   Tennessee: 12 R
6.   Nevada: 11.3 D
7.   New Jersey: 10.4 D
8.   New Hampshire: 9.2 D
9.   Alabama: 9.15 R
10.   Louisiana: 9.15 R
11.   California: 9.1 D
12.   Missouri: 8.7 R
13.   Virginia: 8.6 D
14.   New Mexico: 8.5 D
15.   Arizona: 7.9 D
16.   Delaware: 7.8 D
17.   Minnesota: 7.1 R
18.   Colorado: 6.7 D
19.   Hawaii: 6.7 D
20.   Florida: 5.9 D
21.   Pennsylvania: 5.9 R
22.   Oklahoma: 5.8 R
23.   Indiana: 5.1 D
24.   Connecticut: 4.7 D
25.   Maryland: 4.4 D
26.   Texas: 4.4 R
27.   New York: 4.1 D
28.   South Dakota: 4 R
29.   Nebraska: 4 D
30.   Wyoming: 3.8 R
31.   Illinois: 3.5 D
32.   North Carolina: 3.1 D
33.   Washington: 3 D
34.   Massachusetts: 3 R
35.   Alaska: 2.8 D
36.   South Carolina: 2.7 D
37.   Maine: 2.5 D
38.   Oregon: 2.5 D
39.   Montana: 2.5 R
40.   Ohio: 2 R
41.   Utah: 1.9 R
42.   Rhode Island: 1.4 R
43.   Mississippi: 0.9 D
44.   North Dakota: 0.8 D
45.   Wisconsin: 0.6 R
46.   Georgia: 0.6 D
47.   Kansas: 0.6 R
48.   Michigan: 0.5 D
49.   Iowa: 0.3 R
50.   Idaho: 0.2 D
51.   Washington D.C.: No change

Most of you will not be surprised to learn that the three states with the strongest partisan tilt in 2012 were all to be found in the Appalachian region or the more extensive south. Also it should not come as a huge surprise that Vermont has been the most Democratic trending state in the last few elections, and that includes in 2012 as well. More interesting though, is to see which states follow next to Vermont on the trendline ranking. The next Democratic trending states in 2012 were Nevada (despite an actual reverse from 2008), New Jersey (how much can this be attributed to Hurricane Sandy?), battleground New Hampshire, minority majority California (although 55% of voters were still white in 2012), the new battleground/bellwether of Virginia, latino majority New Mexico, up-and-coming Arizona, minority heavy Delaware, the highly educated swing state of Colorado, Obama's home state Hawaii, plus the "eternal" battleground of latino heavy Florida. I think it's safe to say that all, or at least close to all, of these states will continue to trend Democratic in the next few elections as well. On the Republican side, you find 6 states from the south including the Appalachians, as the heaviest trenders. Interestingly though, outside of this region, the states trending the most Republican in 2012 were Missouri (for the sake of argument I considered it outside of the south, although it is a borderline case), the once shockingly liberal Minnesota, plus the important battleground state of Pennsylvania. Four states were not trending at all in the last election, one way or the other. Those being Washington D.C., Idaho, Iowa and Michigan. Another 5 or 6 states had next to no trend. While West Virginia trended an incredible 28.5 places more Republican from its average Democratic place of 18.5.


In the 2012 election, no less than 13 states reached a new level of partisanship (or for some maintained the maximum level of partisanship) not seen before since 1964. 8 of these reached or stayed at record high Democratic levels, while the other 5 had never voted more Republican (again starting in 1964).

The 8 states with record high Democratic voting in 2012:

1. Washington D.C.
2. Hawaii
3. Vermont
4. New York
8. California
9. Delaware
16. New Mexico
25. Virginia

The 5 states with record high Republican voting in 2012:

31. Missouri
45. Kentucky
46. Arkansas
47. West Virginia
51. Utah



Topic introduction to continue in next post (maximum allowed lenght has been exceeded)...
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,611
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2013, 08:02:31 PM »

Very interesting.
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2013, 08:21:32 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2013, 09:42:32 PM by eric82oslo »

Now, let's take a look at the Partisan Voting Index, including the 17 states - 8 being Democratic and 9 Republican - which have always (since 1964) voted with the same party in presidential elections (the third party candidacy of Wallace of course not included in this two party analysis).


Partisan Voting Index 1964-2012 (number of elections state has voted with a party)

13 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Washington D.C.
2. Hawaii
3. New York
4. Rhode Island
5. Maryland
6. Massachusetts
7. Minnesota
8. Pennsylvania

12 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Wisconsin
(all Democratic but 1968, when it was the median state, thus no tilt either way that year)
2. Michigan

11 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Delaware
2. Illinois
3. Washington
4. Oregon

10 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Vermont
2. California
3. Connecticut
4. Maine
5. Iowa

9 out of 13 Democratic:

1. New Jersey
2. New Mexico
3. Missouri

8 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Ohio
2. West Virginia


7 out of 13 Republican:

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Louisiana

8 out of 13 Republican:

1. Arkansas

9 out of 13 Republican:

1. Nevada
2. Georgia
3. Tennessee
4. Kentucky

10 out of 13 Republican:

1. Florida
2. Mississippi
3. Alaska
4. Texas
5. Alabama

11 out of 13 Republican:

1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. Montana
5. South Dakota

12 out of 13 Republican:

(none)

13 out of 13 Republican:

1. Arizona
2. Indiana
3. North Dakota
4. Kansas
5. Nebraska
6. Idaho
7. Oklahoma
8. Wyoming
9. Utah


That gives ut this Partisan Percentage Voting Map (1964-2012):



EVs: 286 Democratic - 252 Republican

90% shade in this map means 100% party affiliation, meaning voting with party in 13 of 13 cases.


I've made two more maps as well, one for the Average Partisan Voting of each state, and another one for the 2012 Trend Relative to State's Partisan Average.

The Partisan Voting Average Map (1964-2012):



EVs: 292 Democratic - 246 Republican

In this map above it is the average place on the left-right/Democratic-Republican scale which has been examined. I included the entire list in the first post. For instance D.C. has an average of 1, Missouri has 22.31, while Utah has 49.08.

The only state to flip on this map compared to the last one, was Arkansas, which went from slightly Republican-leaning to even much more slightly Democratic-leaning. However, Arkansas has only 6 EVs, so it's not a big deal.


Finally, the 2012 Trendline Map (Relative to State's Historical Partisanship):



2012 Trending EVs: 324 Democratic - 201 Republican - 13 Toss-up

Again, D.C., Idaho and Iowa saw no long-term trend at all in 2012, meaning that they were less than 0.5 places away from their average historical places on the partisan scale.

There are two regions on the map which stand out as either particularily trending or almost not trending at all. The upper west, including Utah and Nebraska, is almost not trending at all. This non-trending region actually goes all the way to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio, with the big exception of Minnesota. On the other side, there's a continuous belt of about 18 states from west to east which are all trending heavily either towards Democrats or Republicans. This belt starts in the west with five latino states heavily trending towards Democrats. California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. (To this 5 state latino gang in the west, can be added Hawaii as well, although there's an ocean between them.) Then the belt continues through 9 states in and around the south, mostly in or near the Appalachian mountains, which all are trending heavily towards GOP. These nine states are Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. At the tail or the end of the belt, we find 4 states which are trending rapidly towards the Democrats; Florida, Virginia, Delaware and New Jersey. Outside of this long belt, in other words in the far north, there are only three states trending heavily; the aforementioned GOP-friendly Minnesota, plus the neighbouring states of Vermont and New Hampshire, both with a population which has taken a strong liking to the Democratic message lately.

If these long term trends will continue in the next few elections, it's certainly looking good for the Democratic prospects. Although it should be noted that Texas long term trend was still a fairly clear Republican one in 2012. On the other side, that was one of very few points of optimism for GOP in the 2012 election. GOP could find other positive signs in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, both quite EV heavy states. Oh, there's one more good news for GOP: The previously bellwether & battleground state of Missouri, part of the Bible Belt, has also been trending heavily towards the GOP lately, and unlike the Texas trend, this is one trend that is quite likely to last. The other states trending heavily towards GOP haven't been competitive since the 1990s or earlier.


End of rant. Smiley
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2013, 12:59:21 AM »

Good Effort EricOslo! This is very interesting and might come back to this several times. It's really hard to believe Massachusetts has gone to the right. It used to be one of the most liberal states 1960-2004 but lately its actually been pretty moderate considering how much this country is skewed towards the democrats at the moment so I guess it has gone to the right. Idaho has always been the same and probably will be for a long time.
Logged
retromike22
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,433
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2013, 03:31:29 PM »

Looking at the 2012 Trendline Map (Relative to State's Historical Partisanship), I notice that many of the states that have trended most Democratic and Republican tended to be won by Clinton in the 2008 primary, and those that have trended the least tended to have been won by Obama in the 2008 primary.

I took the top 27 states of the list on "States with the clearest 2012 trend relative to states’ average voting between 1964-2012" and colored them Red, and colored the rest of the states Green, to match the Atlas' 2008 primary colors:



Clinton Obama Primary Map:
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,181


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2013, 05:27:18 PM »

Looks like 3 Democratic states have become lean Republican:

19.   West Virginia – 18.46
22.   Missouri – 22.31
25.   Arkansas – 25.23 (closest to being the perennial median state)

While 4 Republican states have become lean Democrat:

30.   Colorado – 30.69
32.   New Hampshire – 31.23
33.   Nevada – 31.31
37.   Virginia – 33.62
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2013, 09:41:04 PM »

Good work here. At first sight I would have questioned whether the appropriate contrast was between a blowout (1964) and the one election that most fits the mean in electoral votes (2012)... and at that, 2012 is the freak election because there is no other election since 1900 in which the winner got between 57.1% and 66.5% of the electoral vote.

(I confess to one of the worst predictions of the 2012 election -- all year I was forecasting that Barack Obama would get either fewer than 308 or more than 358 electoral votes because Romney was going to use a strategy to give himself more of a chance to win but a chance to lose big. He lost one state [Florida] late  with a campaign pitch that tried to connect President Obama with Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez).   2012 was the election with the results closest to the mean in electoral votes... by far.

As is my tendency I will be creating a map in an effort to show any regional and strong state tendencies.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2013, 12:43:30 AM »

THE DRIFT

Blue toward Republicans, red toward Democrats. Individual districts of Nebraska not shown.



Yellow -- no drift (applies only to DC)

20% -- less than 1.5 either way

30%  --  1.9 to 3.1

40%  --  3.5 to 5.1

50%  --  5.8 to 7.1

70%  --  7.8 to 11.4

80%  -- 12 to 18.8

90%  --  28.8 (West Virginia)
Logged
Space7
Rookie
**
Posts: 154
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2013, 12:59:46 AM »

The 1968 electio gave me a small head ache due to the third party candidacy of the infamously populist and segragationist Alabama Governor George Wallace. He received an absolute majority in 2 states (Mississippi & Alabama), came very close in Louisiana as well (48%) and won the election and thus received all the electoral votes in a total of 5 southern states. He also came close to winning in a number of other states, in particular in Tennessee, the Carolinas and Florida. He was on the ballot in every single state except for Washington D.C., where he wouldn't have won many votes in any case. Hawaii, was his weakest state, where only 1.47% of its voters approved of his provocative messaging. Maine had a similar result.

I presume you used something like this to account for it?
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
That's what I used in my State Trend Chart to superimpose the D/R ratio over the non-Democrats and non-Republicans.

In any case, you must have taken a while on these. You could almost start your own website with all this information in it!

That's a weird... coincidence?... for the Clinton primary maps. Any idea what may have caused this? Reminds me of the 2012 mass swing state "0" gravitation. An inexplicable pattern found in trend maps.

Or maybe they both have clear explanations and I'm just missing them.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2013, 03:01:25 AM »

A few musings on the drift:

1. Very small drifts (3 or fewer) may be relative positioning of similar states. So Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming change places. It's statistical noise. 

Of course it is a big deal if the state is toward the median and mean in partisanship and has 18 electoral votes (Ohio) and can decide the Presidential election as a large swing state.

2. Some of it looks like reversion to the mean. Indiana and Minnesota are prime examples. States get neglected because they are understood to be 'solid' and 'immovable'... and all of a sudden Barack Obama wins Indiana in 2008.

3. Favorite Son effects should not be discounted. Figure that Barry Goldwater barely won Arizona yet lost Colorado and Nevada, both of which were then similarly conservative. Figure also that LBJ won Texas by a comparatively small margin in a blowout election in his own state. Put Goldwater in Texas and LBJ in Arizona, and the states switch.  Those are two of the more likely distortions in 1964. It is hard to figure which state has Romney as a Favorite Son so I will say nothing of him, but take away Barack Obama from Illinois and Illinois would probably be much closer than it was in 2012. VP nominees don't matter that much.

4. LBJ was a loud proponent of desegregation and voting rights for blacks; Goldwater was comparatively silent. Much of the vote for Goldwater was a protest vote against LBJ on race.  In 1964 the Republican nominee got pulled into the racial divide that re-emerged in 2008 and 2012 because one of the nominees was someone with much more melanin than the usual American candidate for President.   

eric82oslo, you made a very good call. 

5. I would have probably avoided 1968 because of George Wallace.

Now for the big changes:

6. For those going decidedly D we have several categories. First, states that once had strong 'liberal Republican' politicians like Oregon and Vermont, the disappearance of those politicians marks the decisive drift of the states from strongly R to decidedly D. Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, and New York are likely in that category.  Another is those with huge migrations of likely-D voters. For California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and California such is largely the Hispanic (in those cases, Mexican-American) voters that the Republican Party has offended with xenophobic appeals as red meat to bigots that they think necessary for winning the current election. But with a popular shift, those bigots can no longer make enough of a difference.

In Virginia it is an inflow of liberal-leaning government employees to the suburbs of Washington DC. PPP had a study of baseball loyalties as a measure of where people were really from -- and baseball loyalties don't change easily. That many voters in Virginia identified themselves as fans of the "Red Sox", "Yankees", "Phillies", and "Cubs" -- maybe "Tigers", "Pirates", and "Indians" if such choices were available if the question were asked -- indicated that many Virginia voters were connected to the Northeast and Midwest, and likely to the Democratic Party.    "Orioles" are or were local favorites before the Nationals came in and started winning, and "Braves" and "Reds" have a following on southern and western Virginia.  Florida and North Carolina are almost the same. 

New Hampshire used to be an anomalously right-wing state for the area. It had crusty right-winters like Gordon Humphrey and Meldrim Humphrey as high-profile figures. They typically used "Taxachusetts" as a bogey... but the state eventually became politically more like Massachusetts. It remains the least D-leaning state northeast of the Potomac, but it isn't going to vote for an R nominee for President unless "D" stands for disaster.

As late as 1964, fellows in ghostly attire helped ensure that blacks did not vote in some states.  Such is no longer true in Georgia and Mississippi.



On the other side...

7. The Appalachians and Ozarks used to be more D-leaning than they are now... much more! States that have significant  territory in the Appalachians have seen these areas go decidedly R. This reflects the weakening of the influence of the United Mine Workers' Union as coal seams are exhausted. Coal barons have largely broken the union, once a powerful force for economic and political liberalism. I have heard visitors to Appalachia show shock at the extent of gutter racism in the area to the extent that it is now much worse than in the Deep South. (In the Deep South there are at least power-sharing arrangements and people learn at the least to modulate their language).

Unions are strong supporters of racial equality, union officials typically going on marches with Dr. Martin Luther King in the 1960s. Union officials considered racism a threat to unity within unions and supported legislation that specifically prohibited unions from signing agreements that allowed unequal pay based on race and against discrimination against people on the basis of race.  But when unions are broken, the conduit for liberal ideas through the union paper disappears. FoX Propaganda Channel fills the ideological vacuum.

West Virginia  is the extreme. It used to be much more liberal-leaning than the rest of America; in 1980 it gave Jimmy Carter six of his paltry 49 electoral votes, and in 1988 it stood out as the one state to vote for Dukakis despite its neighbors all voting for the elder Bush. That is over.

One commentator noted in 2008 that in proportion to use of the internet, West Virginians were most likely to search for a word often used as a smear for black people. How far can a state fall?

.............

Of course some things will be different in 2016. The Democratic nominee for President will be white -- if that makes a difference. Barack Obama may have been an inordinately good match for the political values of some states and a horrible one for some others.   

             
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2013, 10:20:08 AM »

3. Favorite Son effects should not be discounted. Figure that Barry Goldwater barely won Arizona yet lost Colorado and Nevada, both of which were then similarly conservative. Figure also that LBJ won Texas by a comparatively small margin in a blowout election in his own state. Put Goldwater in Texas and LBJ in Arizona, and the states switch.  Those are two of the more likely distortions in 1964. It is hard to figure which state has Romney as a Favorite Son so I will say nothing of him, but take away Barack Obama from Illinois and Illinois would probably be much closer than it was in 2012. VP nominees don't matter that much.

There's no doubt that Utah saw Romney as their favourite son, since two out of three Utahans are Mormons. Thus the Republican margin over Democrats in Utah increased from 28% in 2008 to 48% in 2012, an amazing shift towards GOP of 20%. No other state came even close to such a shift towards GOP. The only somewhat comparable shift, would be Alaska's large shift towards the Democrats. Other Mormon heavy states also had nice shifts, but nothing like the shift in Utah. Smiley
Logged
Fritz
JLD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2013, 12:01:47 AM »
« Edited: July 26, 2013, 01:11:54 AM by Fritz »

Okay, I am really confused here.  You lost me in reply #2, wherein there is a Partisan Voting Index, listing 8 states that voted 13 out of 13 elections for the Democrats.  HUH?? WHAT?? There is only one "state" that has voted for the Democrat in all 13 elections since 1964, and that is Washington D.C.  There are 2 states that have voted for the Democrat in 12 of the past 13 elections, and those are Minnesota (voted Republican only in 1972) and Massachusetts (voted Republican only in 1984).

Am I misunderstanding something, or do you not have your facts straight?

Edit: I realize eric82oslo could not have put such time and effort into this, and make such obvious factual errors.  Clearly I am misunderstanding something, if someone could explain it to me I'd appreciate it!

Edit 2: I think I'm understanding now...you are counting a state as "Democratic" if it lands in positions 1-25 in your 51-state ranking for that election (even if the state actually voted Republican).  Got it.
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2013, 07:21:40 PM »
« Edited: July 26, 2013, 08:20:53 PM by eric82oslo »

The list of most and least very religious states look a bit similar to the list of most Republican and most Democratic states. Smiley These are the 2012 numbers from Gallup.

The 10 most religious states:

1. Mississippi - 58%
2. Utah & Alabama - 56%
4. Louisiana - 53%
5. Arkansas & South Carolina - 52%
7. Tennessee & North Carolina - 50%
9. Oklahoma & Georgia - 48%


The 10 least religious states:

1. Vermont - 19% (!)
2. New Hampshire - 23%
3. Maine - 24%
4. Massachusetts - 27%
5. Rhode Island & Oregon - 29%
7. Washington D.C. - 30%
8. Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Washington, Connecticut & New York - 31%

Source: Huffington Post & Gallup (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/02/14/gallup-these-are-the-10-most-and-least-religious-states-in-america/)

Gallup collected the results of this study from Jan. 1 – Dec. 31, 2012, interviewing a random sample of 348,306 adults ages 18 and older.

Does this mean that Alaska will become increasingly Democratic in the next few years? It should seem rather likely, since no state trended more Democratic in the 2012 election than actually Alaska. Smiley Yet still, Alaska actually increased its very religious rate from 28% to 31% in the latest Gallup yearly poll. While Vermont sank fra 23% to just 19%.


Heck, why tease you like that? Tongue Here is the entire list in fact (from least religious):

1. Vermont - 19.1%
2. New Hampshire - 23.4%
3. Maine - 24.4%
4. Massachusetts - 26.5%
5. Oregon - 28.8%
6. Rhode Island - 29.1%
7. Washington D.C. - 30%
8. Washington & Connecticut - 30.5%
10. Alaska - 31.3%
11. Nevada & Hawaii - 31.4%
13. New York - 31.5%
14. Wyoming - 32.8% (!)
15. Colorado - 33.5%
16. Montana - 34%
17. California - 34.5%
18. New Jersey - 34.7%
19. Delaware - 35.2%
20. Michigan - 36.5%
21. Arizona - 36.6%
22. Maryland & Wisconsin - 36.7%
24. Florida - 37.6%
25. Illinois - 38%

26. Minnesota & Ohio - 38.2%
28. Pennsylvania - 39.5%
29. Virginia - 41.1%
30. Iowa - 41.3%
31. Idaho - 41.5%
32. North Dakota - 41.6%
33. West Virginia - 41.9%
34. Missouri - 42.1%
35. Indiana - 42.7%
36. New Mexico - 43.2%
37. Nebraska - 44.2%
38. Kansas - 45.1%
39. Kentucky - 45.4%
40. South Dakota - 45.6%
41. Texas - 47%
42. Oklahoma - 47.6%
43. Georgia - 47.9%
44. North Carolina - 49.5%
45. Tennessee - 50.3%
46. South Carolina - 51.9%
47. Arkansas - 52.3%
48. Louisiana - 53.5%
49. Alabama - 55.7%
50. Utah - 56%
51. Mississippi - 58.4%

Some Republican states are surprisingly non-religious, in particular Alaska and Wyoming, but also Montana, Arizona and to a lesser extent, Florida. While some Democratic states are in fact considerably more religious than one perhaps might think. That's the case with New Mexico, Iowa, Pennsyvania and Minnesota. Illinois is in fact just as religious as Ohio and Minnesota, and more so than Florida and Arizona. Oh, the battleground state of Virginia is still fairly religious, coming in as numer 29. One of the things that surprised me the most was that the Bible Belt state of Missouri isn't in fact more religious. It only comes in at number 34, which is in fact higher than Indiana. Maybe religion is in fact starting to lose its grip on Missouri too? However Texas is still very much of a religious state! Which must be a big challenge to those trying to make it into a purple battleground state.

On a map, it looks like this:



EVs: Democrats 280 - Republicans 258

Not too bad for Republicans actually. Tongue
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2013, 09:47:56 PM »

The list of most and least very religious states look a bit similar to the list of most Republican and most Democratic states. Smiley These are the 2012 numbers from Gallup.

The 10 most religious states:

1. Mississippi - 58%
2. Utah & Alabama - 56%
4. Louisiana - 53%
5. Arkansas & South Carolina - 52%
7. Tennessee & North Carolina - 50%
9. Oklahoma & Georgia - 48%


The 10 least religious states:

1. Vermont - 19% (!)
2. New Hampshire - 23%
3. Maine - 24%
4. Massachusetts - 27%
5. Rhode Island & Oregon - 29%
7. Washington D.C. - 30%
8. Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Washington, Connecticut & New York - 31%

Source: Huffington Post & Gallup (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/02/14/gallup-these-are-the-10-most-and-least-religious-states-in-america/)

Gallup collected the results of this study from Jan. 1 – Dec. 31, 2012, interviewing a random sample of 348,306 adults ages 18 and older.

Does this mean that Alaska will become increasingly Democratic in the next few years? It should seem rather likely, since no state trended more Democratic in the 2012 election than actually Alaska. Smiley Yet still, Alaska actually increased its very religious rate from 28% to 31% in the latest Gallup yearly poll. While Vermont sank fra 23% to just 19%.


Heck, why tease you like that? Tongue Here is the entire list in fact (from least religious):

1. Vermont - 19.1%
2. New Hampshire - 23.4%
3. Maine - 24.4%
4. Massachusetts - 26.5%
5. Oregon - 28.8%
6. Rhode Island - 29.1%
7. Washington D.C. - 30%
8. Washington & Connecticut - 30.5%
10. Alaska - 31.3%
11. Nevada & Hawaii - 31.4%
13. New York - 31.5%
14. Wyoming - 32.8% (!)
15. Colorado - 33.5%
16. Montana - 34%
17. California - 34.5%
18. New Jersey - 34.7%
19. Delaware - 35.2%
20. Michigan - 36.5%
21. Arizona - 36.6%
22. Maryland & Wisconsin - 36.7%
24. Florida - 37.6%
25. Illinois - 38%

26. Minnesota & Ohio - 38.2%
28. Pennsylvania - 39.5%
29. Virginia - 41.1%
30. Iowa - 41.3%
31. Idaho - 41.5%
32. North Dakota - 41.6%
33. West Virginia - 41.9%
34. Missouri - 42.1%
35. Indiana - 42.7%
36. New Mexico - 43.2%
37. Nebraska - 44.2%
38. Kansas - 45.1%
39. Kentucky - 45.4%
40. South Dakota - 45.6%
41. Texas - 47%
42. Oklahoma - 47.6%
43. Georgia - 47.9%
44. North Carolina - 49.5%
45. Tennessee - 50.3%
46. South Carolina - 51.9%
47. Arkansas - 52.3%
48. Louisiana - 53.5%
49. Alabama - 55.7%
50. Utah - 56%
51. Mississippi - 58.4%

Some Republican states are surprisingly non-religious, in particular Alaska and Wyoming, but also Montana, Arizona and to a lesser extent, Florida. While some Democratic states are in fact considerably more religious than one perhaps might think. That's the case with New Mexico, Iowa, Pennsyvania and Minnesota. Illinois is in fact just as religious as Ohio and Minnesota, and more so than Florida and Arizona. Oh, the battleground state of Virginia is still fairly religious, coming in as numer 29. One of the things that surprised me the most was that the Bible Belt state of Missouri isn't in fact more religious. It only comes in at number 34, which is in fact higher than Indiana. Maybe religion is in fact starting to lose its grip on Missouri too? However Texas is still very much of a religious state! Which must be a big challenge to those trying to make it into a purple battleground state.

On a map, it looks like this:



EVs: Democrats 280 - Republicans 258

Not too bad for Republicans actually. Tongue

New Mexico is more religious than Arizona? Also states like Wyoming and Montana vote GOP on economic freedom and libertarianism, while most of the southern states are generic and establishment type republicans. More religion makes you more socially conservative, less religion makes you more socially liberal. Just look at Vermont and Mississippi. I don't have a specific religion, now that doesn't mean at all that I'm an atheist but I don't attend religious services, and I happen to be very liberal socially.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.126 seconds with 12 queries.