North Carolina: Democratic Trend Slowing Down?

[illegaloperation]

It's slowing down but trends don't go on forever. It will be more interesting to see how a non-Obama candidate does. Obama did well with the African American population in the tar heel state and he won the election so those are two reasons for over performance.

North Carolina is moving slower to the left because of the recession. The pace will probably pickup again.

Also, it is incorrect to assume that it will move back because Obama is not on the ticket.

Obama may have performed well among the African Americans, but he performed poorly among Southern whites. A different Democratic candidate can improve the margin of Southern whites.

That's a great point, but Bush didn't appear to do that much worse than Romney did and he actually did better than Romney with whites in NC. Really the turnout numbers aren't stressed enough. The reason southern states trended D is because of increased black turnout, even though Whites went slightly more republican. Also let's not forget that white turnout was not fantastic this election cycle so we'll see where turnout is at.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/28/black-voter-turnout-2012-election_n_3173673.html

The reason both Virginia and North Carolina are trending left is the growth in the urban areas.

In Virginia, it's the D.C. suburb; in North Carolina, it's Charlotte and the Research Triangle.

[barfbag]

It's slowing down but trends don't go on forever. It will be more interesting to see how a non-Obama candidate does. Obama did well with the African American population in the tar heel state and he won the election so those are two reasons for over performance.

North Carolina is moving slower to the left because of the recession. The pace will probably pickup again.

Also, it is incorrect to assume that it will move back because Obama is not on the ticket.

Obama may have performed well among the African Americans, but he performed poorly among Southern whites. A different Democratic candidate can improve the margin of Southern whites.

That's a great point, but Bush didn't appear to do that much worse than Romney did and he actually did better than Romney with whites in NC. Really the turnout numbers aren't stressed enough. The reason southern states trended D is because of increased black turnout, even though Whites went slightly more republican. Also let's not forget that white turnout was not fantastic this election cycle so we'll see where turnout is at.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/28/black-voter-turnout-2012-election_n_3173673.html

The reason both Virginia and North Carolina are trending left is the growth in the urban areas.

In Virginia, it's the D.C. suburb; in North Carolina, it's Charlotte and the Research Triangle.

Very simple but very true. It's a sign of people moving to North Carolina to have a more comfortable climate and our government getting to big in D.C.

[TarHeelDem]

I don't think the trend is slowing down. As previously stated, I think a big factor is the urbanization of the Metrolina, Piedmont, and Triangle areas. Increased diversity there is trending the state farther left. If Hillary runs I think she'll take the state in 2016. A weaker Democrat, maybe not, but I do believe the state is going to remain a toss-up for several cycles.

[barfbag]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

[Smash255]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

I will give you NC at this point (though it could be a pure tossup by 2016), however VA is certainly NOT barely GOP, and it might not even be in the tossup category anymore by 2016

[barfbag]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

I will give you NC at this point (though it could be a pure tossup by 2016), however VA is certainly NOT barely GOP, and it might not even be in the tossup category anymore by 2016

Fair enough, I feel the same way about NC as I do VA though. Obama was a tremendous candidate for NC and therefore he skewed the trend even further. Let's say NC is 52-47 next time, then it will prove my theory or especially if it's something like 54-45 which is where I'd put it without Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections. On the other hand though, if we have a scenario where the Democrats win NC and still lose the election, then we'll see that Obama had very little to do with the results and that NC is clearly moving to the left. Only time will tell.

[Smash255]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

I will give you NC at this point (though it could be a pure tossup by 2016), however VA is certainly NOT barely GOP, and it might not even be in the tossup category anymore by 2016

Fair enough, I feel the same way about NC as I do VA though. Obama was a tremendous candidate for NC and therefore he skewed the trend even further. Let's say NC is 52-47 next time, then it will prove my theory or especially if it's something like 54-45 which is where I'd put it without Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections. On the other hand though, if we have a scenario where the Democrats win NC and still lose the election, then we'll see that Obama had very little to do with the results and that NC is clearly moving to the left. Only time will tell.

Obama certainly was helped by African American turnout, but the bigger picture in the state is the transplant vote.  If you look at the Triangle and Charlotte, they are going through similar changes as Northern Virginia.  Not only are they becoming more diverse, but the white vote is less and less southern, and less GOP as a result.

Not to mention despite trying to run considerably to the right, Romney is considerably less offensive to some upper middle class northern transplant in Cary (a swing area) than someone like Cruz (who would get obliterated there)

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

In 2012, Virginia was +0.5 while North Carolina was +4.7 (compared to the national average).

According to Nate Silver, if in 2016 Clinton can perform exactly as Obama did 2012, she will carry the state just from demographic changes.

And while it can be argue that Obama over perform among the black vote, there's also the possibility that Clinton can perform better with white vote than did Obama.

[barfbag]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

In 2012, Virginia was +0.5 while North Carolina was +4.7 (compared to the national average).

According to Nate Silver, if in 2016 Clinton can perform exactly as Obama did 2012, she will carry the state just from demographic changes.

And while it can be argue that Obama over perform among the black vote, there's also the possibility that Clinton can perform better with white vote than did Obama.

As long as the trend continues you're right. However, take into account that the Republicans could run a great nominee too. For example, Chris Christie could get the undecided whites instead of Hillary Clinton.

[illegaloperation]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

In 2012, Virginia was +0.5 while North Carolina was +4.7 (compared to the national average).

According to Nate Silver, if in 2016 Clinton can perform exactly as Obama did 2012, she will carry the state just from demographic changes.

And while it can be argue that Obama over perform among the black vote, there's also the possibility that Clinton can perform better with white vote than did Obama.

As long as the trend continues you're right. However, take into account that the Republicans could run a great nominee too. For example, Chris Christie could get the undecided whites instead of Hillary Clinton.

Maybe Republican will nominate a horrible candidate and lost Georgia for all we know.

I am a science person.

When I do my lab experiments, I have the control (what doesn't change significantly) and variable (what changes).

Obviously, if my control changes significantly, my thesis is meaningless because it's inconclusive.

Between tests, the solvent evaporates and the control slightly changes, but it's still close enough for me to make conclusive observations.

If between tests, I changes the temperate, then my observations are no longer conclusive, because the control significantly changes.

Same thing applies here. Otherwise, if the control changes, (for example, Democrats nominate a racist white candidate while Republicans nominated a charming black candidate), the observation no longer applies.

[Smash255]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

In 2012, Virginia was +0.5 while North Carolina was +4.7 (compared to the national average).

According to Nate Silver, if in 2016 Clinton can perform exactly as Obama did 2012, she will carry the state just from demographic changes.

And while it can be argue that Obama over perform among the black vote, there's also the possibility that Clinton can perform better with white vote than did Obama.

As long as the trend continues you're right. However, take into account that the Republicans could run a great nominee too. For example, Chris Christie could get the undecided whites instead of Hillary Clinton.

Chris Christie would certainly be a more acceptable candidate among the transplant vote than someone like Cruz would be.   However, that is Christie as of now.  In order for Christie to actually win the circus called the GOP Primary, he would likely have to position himself  considerably further to the right, which in turns scares the crap out of the transplant vote

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It'll pick back up for 2014 and 2016 as a backlash.  Republicans are just destroying that state.  It's really unbelievable. 

[barfbag]

North Carolina leans Republican and Virginia is barely Republican with all things being equal. In the next election, they could both be in the toss up column though.

In 2012, Virginia was +0.5 while North Carolina was +4.7 (compared to the national average).

According to Nate Silver, if in 2016 Clinton can perform exactly as Obama did 2012, she will carry the state just from demographic changes.

And while it can be argue that Obama over perform among the black vote, there's also the possibility that Clinton can perform better with white vote than did Obama.

As long as the trend continues you're right. However, take into account that the Republicans could run a great nominee too. For example, Chris Christie could get the undecided whites instead of Hillary Clinton.

Chris Christie would certainly be a more acceptable candidate among the transplant vote than someone like Cruz would be.   However, that is Christie as of now.  In order for Christie to actually win the circus called the GOP Primary, he would likely have to position himself  considerably further to the right, which in turns scares the crap out of the transplant vote

He wouldn't have to go to the right anymore than Romney did. Chris Christie is an experienced politician who will be plenty able to highlight his conservative stances when necessary and his moderate stances when necessary. No one will be scared except for the when it comes to the effects of Obamacare.