From D.C. to Utah - partisan statistics on a state level from 1964 to 2012

[eric82oslo]

The past couple of days I've been ranking every state on a partisan scale from 1 (most Democratic) to 51 (most Republican) in every presidential election going back to 1964. I decided to start with 1964, since that was the first election held after Lyndon B. Johnson signed the landmark Votin Rights Act (and other civil rights legislation perhaps). As he himself stated at the time of the signing, he expected his own party to lose the south for the next generation. This means that I've analyzed 13 elections. The 1968 electio gave me a small head ache due to the third party candidacy of the infamously populist and segragationist Alabama Governor George Wallace. He received an absolute majority in 2 states (Mississippi & Alabama), came very close in Louisiana as well (48%) and won the election and thus received all the electoral votes in a total of 5 southern states. He also came close to winning in a number of other states, in particular in Tennessee, the Carolinas and Florida. He was on the ballot in every single state except for Washington D.C., where he wouldn't have won many votes in any case. Hawaii, was his weakest state, where only 1.47% of its voters approved of his provocative messaging. Maine had a similar result.

Enough of 1968. What I came to discover was a remarkably stable political landscape. 17 of the 51 states (we count D.C. as state here even though it technically isn't [yet]) have landed on the Democratic half or on the Republican half of states in every single of the 13 elections. That means one in three states, leaving only two thirds of states having some ambiguity in their voting preferences. The very most stable "state" was undoubtedly Washington D.C., which was (by far) the most Democratic leaning state in all of the 13 elections. On the other hand we have Georgia, which has fluctuated wildly. On average, talking from a historical point of view (when looking back at the last 50 years), Georgia has been one of the absolutely most moderate states in partisan politics. It has tilted only slightly Republican, on average. However, in two elections, Georgia was in fact the most Democratic voting of all states and second only to Washington D.C.. This coincided of course with the candidacy of homegrown son Jimmy Carter. However, just in the previous election, in 1972, it had in fact been the second most conservative or Republican state in the nation, only beaten by an even more staunch Mississippi. Unsurprisingly, no other state has even come close to being so reliably unreliable, and even less so between two consecutive elections. The most stable state on the Republican side, has for a long time been Utah. In fact, Utah has been the most Republican leaning state in no less than 8 of the last 13 elections.

Let's get to work and start off with some historical statistics. If anyone spot some odd and strange numbers, I promise that I will double check my data. For the sake of argument, I've divided all states into two parts, 25 states which I call Democratic leaning for each election and another 25 states which is considered Republican leaning. The leftover state, number 26 from each partisan rank, is considered the median, without partisan affiliation for that election. In fact bellwether Ohio has been the median state in 3 of the last 5 elections, including the last two elections. Impressive. A median state has almost never been the decisive state in terms of the Elector College or the popular vote though, since Democratic leaning states on average have larger population than Republican leaning states.


Average partisan voting for states in presidential elections 1964-2012
(on a scale from 1, Democratic, to 51, Republican)

1.   Washington D.C. – 1
2.   Rhode Island – 3.62
3.   Massachusetts - 4
4.   New York – 8.08
5.   Hawaii – 8.69
6.   Maryland – 10.38
7.   Minnesota – 10.92
8.   Vermont – 15.46
9.   Illinois – 15.54
10.   Maine – 15.54
11.   Connecticut – 15.69
12.   Delaware – 16.85
13.   Washington - 17
14.   California – 17.08
15.   Pennsylvania – 17.08
16.   Oregon – 17.46
17.   Michigan – 17.46
18.   Wisconsin – 18.38
19.   West Virginia – 18.46
20.   New Jersey – 20.38
21.   Iowa – 20.69
22.   Missouri – 22.31
23.   Ohio - 24
24.   New Mexico – 24.54
25.   Arkansas – 25.23 (closest to being the perennial median state)
26.   Kentucky – 28.69
27.   Louisiana – 28.85
28.   Tennessee - 29
29.   Georgia – 29.62
30.   Colorado – 30.69
31.   North Carolina – 31.15
32.   New Hampshire – 31.23
33.   Nevada – 31.31
34.   Montana – 32.46
35.   Texas – 32.62
36.   Florida – 32.92
37.   Virginia – 33.62
38.   Alabama – 34.85
39.   Mississippi – 34.92
40.   South Dakota - 35
41.   South Carolina – 35.69
42.   Indiana – 37.08
43.   Arizona – 37.92
44.   Alaska – 38.77
45.   North Dakota – 40.77
46.   Kansas – 41.38
47.   Oklahoma – 43.15
48.   Wyoming – 46.15
49.   Nebraska – 47
50.   Idaho – 48.23
51.   Utah – 49.08


As we can see from these statistics above, the three states of Arkansas, New Mexico and Ohio have been the least partisan during these 50 years of late. Missouri, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia and New Jersey should also be mentioned in this category. Neither of those have, on average, been strongly partisan.

The next statistical field that I've generated deals with the partisan makeup of the 2012 election, and how the voting on the state level compared to the average partisan voting of each states during the past 13 elections. As you will see, unsurprisingly, some states have been trending wildly lately.


States with the clearest 2012 trend relative to states’ average voting between 1964-2012

1.   West Virginia: 28.5 places more Republican
2.   Arkansas: 18.8 places more R
3.   Kentucky: 16.3 R
4.   Vermont: 12.5 places more Democratic
5.   Tennessee: 12 R
6.   Nevada: 11.3 D
7.   New Jersey: 10.4 D
8.   New Hampshire: 9.2 D
9.   Alabama: 9.15 R
10.   Louisiana: 9.15 R
11.   California: 9.1 D
12.   Missouri: 8.7 R
13.   Virginia: 8.6 D
14.   New Mexico: 8.5 D
15.   Arizona: 7.9 D
16.   Delaware: 7.8 D
17.   Minnesota: 7.1 R
18.   Colorado: 6.7 D
19.   Hawaii: 6.7 D
20.   Florida: 5.9 D
21.   Pennsylvania: 5.9 R
22.   Oklahoma: 5.8 R
23.   Indiana: 5.1 D
24.   Connecticut: 4.7 D
25.   Maryland: 4.4 D
26.   Texas: 4.4 R
27.   New York: 4.1 D
28.   South Dakota: 4 R
29.   Nebraska: 4 D
30.   Wyoming: 3.8 R
31.   Illinois: 3.5 D
32.   North Carolina: 3.1 D
33.   Washington: 3 D
34.   Massachusetts: 3 R
35.   Alaska: 2.8 D
36.   South Carolina: 2.7 D
37.   Maine: 2.5 D
38.   Oregon: 2.5 D
39.   Montana: 2.5 R
40.   Ohio: 2 R
41.   Utah: 1.9 R
42.   Rhode Island: 1.4 R
43.   Mississippi: 0.9 D
44.   North Dakota: 0.8 D
45.   Wisconsin: 0.6 R
46.   Georgia: 0.6 D
47.   Kansas: 0.6 R
48.   Michigan: 0.5 D
49.   Iowa: 0.3 R
50.   Idaho: 0.2 D
51.   Washington D.C.: No change

Most of you will not be surprised to learn that the three states with the strongest partisan tilt in 2012 were all to be found in the Appalachian region or the more extensive south. Also it should not come as a huge surprise that Vermont has been the most Democratic trending state in the last few elections, and that includes in 2012 as well. More interesting though, is to see which states follow next to Vermont on the trendline ranking. The next Democratic trending states in 2012 were Nevada (despite an actual reverse from 2008), New Jersey (how much can this be attributed to Hurricane Sandy?), battleground New Hampshire, minority majority California (although 55% of voters were still white in 2012), the new battleground/bellwether of Virginia, latino majority New Mexico, up-and-coming Arizona, minority heavy Delaware, the highly educated swing state of Colorado, Obama's home state Hawaii, plus the "eternal" battleground of latino heavy Florida. I think it's safe to say that all, or at least close to all, of these states will continue to trend Democratic in the next few elections as well. On the Republican side, you find 6 states from the south including the Appalachians, as the heaviest trenders. Interestingly though, outside of this region, the states trending the most Republican in 2012 were Missouri (for the sake of argument I considered it outside of the south, although it is a borderline case), the once shockingly liberal Minnesota, plus the important battleground state of Pennsylvania. Four states were not trending at all in the last election, one way or the other. Those being Washington D.C., Idaho, Iowa and Michigan. Another 5 or 6 states had next to no trend. While West Virginia trended an incredible 28.5 places more Republican from its average Democratic place of 18.5.


In the 2012 election, no less than 13 states reached a new level of partisanship (or for some maintained the maximum level of partisanship) not seen before since 1964. 8 of these reached or stayed at record high Democratic levels, while the other 5 had never voted more Republican (again starting in 1964).

The 8 states with record high Democratic voting in 2012:

1. Washington D.C.
2. Hawaii
3. Vermont
4. New York
8. California
9. Delaware
16. New Mexico
25. Virginia

The 5 states with record high Republican voting in 2012:

31. Missouri
45. Kentucky
46. Arkansas
47. West Virginia
51. Utah


Topic introduction to continue in next post (maximum allowed lenght has been exceeded)...

[eric82oslo]

Now, let's take a look at the Partisan Voting Index, including the 17 states - 8 being Democratic and 9 Republican - which have always (since 1964) voted with the same party in presidential elections (the third party candidacy of Wallace of course not included in this two party analysis).


Partisan Voting Index 1964-2012 (number of elections state has voted with a party)

13 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Washington D.C.
2. Hawaii
3. New York
4. Rhode Island
5. Maryland
6. Massachusetts
7. Minnesota
8. Pennsylvania

12 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Wisconsin (all Democratic but 1968, when it was the median state, thus no tilt either way that year)
2. Michigan

11 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Delaware
2. Illinois
3. Washington
4. Oregon

10 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Vermont
2. California
3. Connecticut
4. Maine
5. Iowa

9 out of 13 Democratic:

1. New Jersey
2. New Mexico
3. Missouri

8 out of 13 Democratic:

1. Ohio
2. West Virginia


7 out of 13 Republican:

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Louisiana

8 out of 13 Republican:

1. Arkansas

9 out of 13 Republican:

1. Nevada
2. Georgia
3. Tennessee
4. Kentucky

10 out of 13 Republican:

1. Florida
2. Mississippi
3. Alaska
4. Texas
5. Alabama

11 out of 13 Republican:

1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. Montana
5. South Dakota

12 out of 13 Republican:

(none)

13 out of 13 Republican:

1. Arizona
2. Indiana
3. North Dakota
4. Kansas
5. Nebraska
6. Idaho
7. Oklahoma
8. Wyoming
9. Utah


That gives ut this Partisan Percentage Voting Map (1964-2012):

EVs: 286 Democratic - 252 Republican

90% shade in this map means 100% party affiliation, meaning voting with party in 13 of 13 cases.


I've made two more maps as well, one for the Average Partisan Voting of each state, and another one for the 2012 Trend Relative to State's Partisan Average.

The Partisan Voting Average Map (1964-2012):

EVs: 292 Democratic - 246 Republican

In this map above it is the average place on the left-right/Democratic-Republican scale which has been examined. I included the entire list in the first post. For instance D.C. has an average of 1, Missouri has 22.31, while Utah has 49.08.

The only state to flip on this map compared to the last one, was Arkansas, which went from slightly Republican-leaning to even much more slightly Democratic-leaning. However, Arkansas has only 6 EVs, so it's not a big deal.


Finally, the 2012 Trendline Map (Relative to State's Historical Partisanship):

2012 Trending EVs: 324 Democratic - 201 Republican - 13 Toss-up

Again, D.C., Idaho and Iowa saw no long-term trend at all in 2012, meaning that they were less than 0.5 places away from their average historical places on the partisan scale.

There are two regions on the map which stand out as either particularily trending or almost not trending at all. The upper west, including Utah and Nebraska, is almost not trending at all. This non-trending region actually goes all the way to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio, with the big exception of Minnesota. On the other side, there's a continuous belt of about 18 states from west to east which are all trending heavily either towards Democrats or Republicans. This belt starts in the west with five latino states heavily trending towards Democrats. California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. (To this 5 state latino gang in the west, can be added Hawaii as well, although there's an ocean between them.) Then the belt continues through 9 states in and around the south, mostly in or near the Appalachian mountains, which all are trending heavily towards GOP. These nine states are Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. At the tail or the end of the belt, we find 4 states which are trending rapidly towards the Democrats; Florida, Virginia, Delaware and New Jersey. Outside of this long belt, in other words in the far north, there are only three states trending heavily; the aforementioned GOP-friendly Minnesota, plus the neighbouring states of Vermont and New Hampshire, both with a population which has taken a strong liking to the Democratic message lately.

If these long term trends will continue in the next few elections, it's certainly looking good for the Democratic prospects. Although it should be noted that Texas long term trend was still a fairly clear Republican one in 2012. On the other side, that was one of very few points of optimism for GOP in the 2012 election. GOP could find other positive signs in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, both quite EV heavy states. Oh, there's one more good news for GOP: The previously bellwether & battleground state of Missouri, part of the Bible Belt, has also been trending heavily towards the GOP lately, and unlike the Texas trend, this is one trend that is quite likely to last. The other states trending heavily towards GOP haven't been competitive since the 1990s or earlier.


End of rant.

[eric82oslo]

3. Favorite Son effects should not be discounted. Figure that Barry Goldwater barely won Arizona yet lost Colorado and Nevada, both of which were then similarly conservative. Figure also that LBJ won Texas by a comparatively small margin in a blowout election in his own state. Put Goldwater in Texas and LBJ in Arizona, and the states switch.  Those are two of the more likely distortions in 1964. It is hard to figure which state has Romney as a Favorite Son so I will say nothing of him, but take away Barack Obama from Illinois and Illinois would probably be much closer than it was in 2012. VP nominees don't matter that much.

There's no doubt that Utah saw Romney as their favourite son, since two out of three Utahans are Mormons. Thus the Republican margin over Democrats in Utah increased from 28% in 2008 to 48% in 2012, an amazing shift towards GOP of 20%. No other state came even close to such a shift towards GOP. The only somewhat comparable shift, would be Alaska's large shift towards the Democrats. Other Mormon heavy states also had nice shifts, but nothing like the shift in Utah.

[eric82oslo]

The list of most and least very religious states look a bit similar to the list of most Republican and most Democratic states. These are the 2012 numbers from Gallup.

The 10 most religious states:

1. Mississippi - 58%
2. Utah & Alabama - 56%
4. Louisiana - 53%
5. Arkansas & South Carolina - 52%
7. Tennessee & North Carolina - 50%
9. Oklahoma & Georgia - 48%


The 10 least religious states:

1. Vermont - 19% (!)
2. New Hampshire - 23%
3. Maine - 24%
4. Massachusetts - 27%
5. Rhode Island & Oregon - 29%
7. Washington D.C. - 30%
8. Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Washington, Connecticut & New York - 31%

Source: Huffington Post & Gallup (http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/02/14/gallup-these-are-the-10-most-and-least-religious-states-in-america/)

Gallup collected the results of this study from Jan. 1 – Dec. 31, 2012, interviewing a random sample of 348,306 adults ages 18 and older.

Does this mean that Alaska will become increasingly Democratic in the next few years? It should seem rather likely, since no state trended more Democratic in the 2012 election than actually Alaska. Yet still, Alaska actually increased its very religious rate from 28% to 31% in the latest Gallup yearly poll. While Vermont sank fra 23% to just 19%.


Heck, why tease you like that? Here is the entire list in fact (from least religious):

1. Vermont - 19.1%
2. New Hampshire - 23.4%
3. Maine - 24.4%
4. Massachusetts - 26.5%
5. Oregon - 28.8%
6. Rhode Island - 29.1%
7. Washington D.C. - 30%
8. Washington & Connecticut - 30.5%
10. Alaska - 31.3%
11. Nevada & Hawaii - 31.4%
13. New York - 31.5%
14. Wyoming - 32.8% (!)
15. Colorado - 33.5%
16. Montana - 34%
17. California - 34.5%
18. New Jersey - 34.7%
19. Delaware - 35.2%
20. Michigan - 36.5%
21. Arizona - 36.6%
22. Maryland & Wisconsin - 36.7%
24. Florida - 37.6%
25. Illinois - 38%

26. Minnesota & Ohio - 38.2%
28. Pennsylvania - 39.5%
29. Virginia - 41.1%
30. Iowa - 41.3%
31. Idaho - 41.5%
32. North Dakota - 41.6%
33. West Virginia - 41.9%
34. Missouri - 42.1%
35. Indiana - 42.7%
36. New Mexico - 43.2%
37. Nebraska - 44.2%
38. Kansas - 45.1%
39. Kentucky - 45.4%
40. South Dakota - 45.6%
41. Texas - 47%
42. Oklahoma - 47.6%
43. Georgia - 47.9%
44. North Carolina - 49.5%
45. Tennessee - 50.3%
46. South Carolina - 51.9%
47. Arkansas - 52.3%
48. Louisiana - 53.5%
49. Alabama - 55.7%
50. Utah - 56%
51. Mississippi - 58.4%

Some Republican states are surprisingly non-religious, in particular Alaska and Wyoming, but also Montana, Arizona and to a lesser extent, Florida. While some Democratic states are in fact considerably more religious than one perhaps might think. That's the case with New Mexico, Iowa, Pennsyvania and Minnesota. Illinois is in fact just as religious as Ohio and Minnesota, and more so than Florida and Arizona. Oh, the battleground state of Virginia is still fairly religious, coming in as numer 29. One of the things that surprised me the most was that the Bible Belt state of Missouri isn't in fact more religious. It only comes in at number 34, which is in fact higher than Indiana. Maybe religion is in fact starting to lose its grip on Missouri too? However Texas is still very much of a religious state! Which must be a big challenge to those trying to make it into a purple battleground state.

On a map, it looks like this:

EVs: Democrats 280 - Republicans 258

Not too bad for Republicans actually.