PPP-National: Paul narrowly leads

[RogueBeaver]

With 16% to 13% for Bush/Christie/Ryan, Cruz at 12 and Rubio at 10. Rubio's seen his numbers literally chopped in half since January.

[Reluctant Republican]

I'm starting to think if Rubio continues to flounder, he may decide to sit this one out after all. That probably means Bush runs, though I'd still only give him about an 80% chance of running even if Rubio deferred. Given all the opportunities he's had, I see him as more like a Fred Thompson type that has to be pushed into it. Then again, maybe he was just waiting for his brother's reputation to improve a little.

I imagine Bush is closer to Christie than someone like Paul or Cruz. Bush did say he "loved" Christie before, so he might endorse him should his own campaign falter. In any event, I can't see both Bush and Christie as being the final two on the Republican side. Imo it will be Paul, Cruz, or maybe Ryan/Walker against either Christie or Bush.

[RogueBeaver]

Extremely doubtful Bush runs, and as is always said numbers this far out don't mean anything.

[Maxwell]

If Rubio is getting crushed because of immigration, when Republicans really look into Bush, he will be crushed too.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 52%
Biden 12%
Warren 6%
Gillibrand 5%
Booker 3%
Cuomo 2%
Schweitzer 2%
O'Malley 1%
Warner 1%

If Clinton doesn't run...

Biden 34%
Warren 13%
Cuomo 10%
Booker 4%
Gillibrand 3%
O'Malley 3%
Schweitzer 2%
Warner 2%

If neither Clinton nor Biden runs...

Warren 20%
Cuomo 11%
Booker 8%
Gillibrand 5%
Schweitzer 4%
Warner 3%
O'Malley 2%

GOP

Paul 16%
Bush 13%
Christie 13%
Ryan 13%
Cruz 12%
Rubio 10%
Jindal 4%
Santorum 4%
Martinez 2%

[Mr. Morden]

On the Dem. side, Clinton of course leads among all demographics.  In the race without Biden or Clinton, Warren leads all demos except for blacks (Booker) and voters over 65 (Cuomo).

On the GOP side, who leads among....
moderates: Christie
somewhat conservative: Paul
very conservative: Cruz
men: Bush
women: Paul
age 18-45: Bush/Cruz/Paul/Ryan tie
age 46-65: Paul
age 65+: Bush

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm basically 90% sure Rubio won't run at this point.

[retromike22]

I wish polls wouldn't only have "if Blank candidate doesn't run" for the Democrats. I'd really like to see some polls without Ryan, Bush, or both.

[California8429]

Wow, Rand has the touch his father never had (only having support from white males)

[tpfkaw]

Wow, Rand has the touch his father never had (only having support from white males)

Did you miss the part where he's doing better among women than men?

[California8429]

Wow, Rand has the touch his father never had (only having support from white males)

Did you miss the part where he's doing better among women than men?

That's my point...

[tpfkaw]

Wow, Rand has the touch his father never had (only having support from white males)

Did you miss the part where he's doing better among women than men?

That's my point...

Sorry, it was unclear.

[barfbag]

Should we still have a primary election 3 years from now? Lol

[TarHeelDem]

It will be interesting to see the Bush/Christie dynamic if both run. I think it's clear we're set for a battle of the conservatives (Paul vs. Cruz vs. possibly Ryan vs. possibly Rubio), but there may very well also be a battle of the moderates.

[Maxwell]

I'd like to see one with Walker and without Bush/Ryan.

[Eraserhead]

I hope the Republican numbers stay similar to these throughout. The maps would be amazing!

[King]

I hope the Republican numbers stay similar to these throughout. The maps would be amazing!

Their delegate system in nearly every state is winner-take-all, too.  It would be hilarious if someone like Cruz or Santorum racked up delegate leads on 14% of the vote victories.

[Mr. Morden]

I hope the Republican numbers stay similar to these throughout. The maps would be amazing!

Their delegate system in nearly every state is winner-take-all, too.

Not even close to being true, at least not statewide WTA.  Though many of them are WTA by congressional district.