Could 1984 ever happen again?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Could 1984 ever happen again?
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Author Topic: Could 1984 ever happen again?  (Read 3039 times)
MHS2002
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« on: April 04, 2004, 02:38:07 PM »

Just curious...does anyone think a scenario like 1984 could ever happen again, where a candidate carries all but 1 or 2 states? My guess would be no, South and Northeast don't look like they would change any time soon.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2004, 02:43:45 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2004, 02:46:54 PM by supersoulty »

I suppose if the Democrats ever take complete power again then....  

Ohhhh, wait you mean the election, not the book.

Smiley
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klrbzzz
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2004, 02:48:06 PM »

Just curious...does anyone think a scenario like 1984 could ever happen again, where a candidate carries all but 1 or 2 states? My guess would be no, South and Northeast don't look like they would change any time soon.
    A candidate would really have to screw-up, and even then, some of the far-right or far-left states would probably still vote for their "screw-up" candidate.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2004, 03:02:26 PM »

Will Hawaii ever go Republican again?
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2004, 03:07:06 PM »

Will Hawaii ever go Republican again?

Sure.  2008
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StatesRights
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2004, 03:07:43 PM »

Super IM me?
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zachman
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2004, 07:59:11 PM »

I don't think its possible for the Democrats to essentially sweep the electorate. I think the Republicans could, but no one could from the Bush generation.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2004, 08:09:12 PM »

It would be tough, even Dean would have won a handful of states.
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zachman
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2004, 08:22:01 PM »

Dean would have came close to Bush. The margin would have been only about +5 for Bush. You were a former Deaniac, BossTweed?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2004, 08:31:01 PM »

Dean would have came close to Bush. The margin would have been only about +5 for Bush. You were a former Deaniac, BossTweed?

Yes, but I realized he would have been trashed in the general, and went to edwards 5 days before Iowa.
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KEmperor
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« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2004, 11:55:33 PM »

Could it happen anytime soon?  No, the country is too divided.  Could it happen ever?  Sure, I'm sure it will eventually.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2004, 08:30:01 AM »

This isn't 40-50 years ago where the winner would get 10-12% more then the second runner up. I just don't see it happening for a long time. The country is to divided by North/South, East/West. I mean look, we can't even unite enough to fight a common enemy. Thank God that enemy isn't a stronger force like China.
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themadmac
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2004, 04:09:02 PM »

Sure it could, but only if...

The Republicans nominated a David Duke-like figure, or

The Democrats nominated a Lyndon LaRouche-like candidate.

And if both occurred in the same election, we'd have our first "third party" winner since 1860.
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2004, 04:28:07 PM »

I think it takes a real special case to win (or lose) in that fashion. I think if you unabashedly represent the edge of a weak-appearing party and are running against a strong opponent or incumbent, you'll get it handed to you like that, like McGovern and Mondale. As to will it ever happen again, I'd say yeah, it'll happen eventually. Not now or in the near future as I can't think of anyone who could carry MA, MN, CA, WA, TX, OK, GA, and SC right now, to name a handful, but it could happen a good ways down the road, sure.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2004, 06:39:02 PM »

It could only happen if either:

1. A crisis was in swing and the current president was the only one trusted to end it. (1936)

2. The president was popular and there was a good economy. (1984)
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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2004, 02:26:00 PM »

Well, if the Repubs nominated a guy like Rick Santorum (A bigoted man, and Prince Charles look-alike who can't carry his homestate), or someone like him, or we Dems nominated a guy like Lyndon LaRouche, whom I wouldn't even vote for.... It could happen, but I doubt it.
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