Missouri, Arkansas, & Louisiana

[illegaloperation]

Why are Missouri, Arkansas, & Louisiana moving far rightward?

None of these states are in the Appalachians.

[DS0816]

Why are Missouri, Arkansas, & Louisiana moving far rightward?

None of these states are in the Appalachians.

Theories

Arkansas rejected Barack Obama. It's where the PUMAs were. In 2004 and 2008, men's Democratic votes were the same. Women went from giving John Kerry 49 percent to reducing Obama's first-election victory with just 39 percent.

Louisiana's population loss in New Orleans is what transformed its status. (It and Ark. voted for all winners in nine election of 1972 to 2004.) Just 14 percent of whites supported Obama in 2008.

Missouri had underperformances with female vote vs. national outcome. In 2008, Obama carried women with 56 percent. In Mo., he won them but just with 50 percent. Men that year were 48 percent in Mo. vs. 49 percent nationally. With re-election, the women of Mo. went down to 44 percent support for Obama despite his national carriage of females with 55 percent. The men were closer to the national number. So, this was good enough already to knock Mo. off its former pedestal and no longer refer to it as a bellwether state.


If you're wanting a different answer … we'll leave it up to someone else to field your question.

[TDAS04]

The Ozarks of MO & AR are very similar culturally and politically to Appalachia.

As for Louisiana, it's mostly a Deep South state.  It swung against Obama in 2008 due to the Katrina impact in New Orleans, and also because the people in Cajun Country swung against Obama like many whites in Arkansas did.  However, Louisiana did swing a little bit back towards Obama in 2012, likely due to the New Orleans recovery from Katrina.

[ElectionsGuy]

They're adapting to the south. These are not the Bill Clinton years anymore. They have been moving rightward for some time and unfortunately for Dems don't look like they will go back. Although I don't know why in particular the've moved rightward, white voters in these states didn't always used to be as right wing as the deep south, now they're almost as right wing as the deep south with >80% in Louisiana, >70% in Arkansas, and >70% in southern Missouri (>60% overall).

There must have been some backlash with white voters and I'm guessing a lot of that has to do with the party moving farther to the left. Just like there is backlash with Virginians with the republican party moving further to the right, etc. This looks like it will stay this way and some democrats have got to accept it as they have dominance over the republicans at the moment (You guys should be happy). Thinking AR, LA, and MO are going to move leftward again is the same as thinking OK, and eastern rural Texas will move leftward. Whites in OK, and eastern rural TX took similar trends as whites in AR, LA, and MO.

Bottom line: These trends are part of the democrats problems with white voters, here's a great article to read here. Just like republicans have a massive problem with non-white voters, democrats have a problem with white voters, but their problems are under emphasized because they're currently winning.

Here's another article here on a republican strategy to "double down" on white voters.