Testing Waters for a Timeline: Would those maps be possible? (user search)
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  Testing Waters for a Timeline: Would those maps be possible? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Testing Waters for a Timeline: Would those maps be possible?  (Read 4407 times)
Sec. of State Superique
Superique
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Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« on: August 01, 2013, 11:05:14 AM »

1976 Election (I want to do this timeline)

Mo Udall challenged Paul Fannin in 1970 and was elected in a close election. He became know for his support for environmental protection, his liberal records and his protection of native Americans. Udall Beats Carter in Iowa (40% vs 32%) and in New Hampshire with higher margins (47% vs 33%) and leads all the way down to the Democratic Convention.

President Ford fails to win the Republican Convention and decides to support Reagan that picks Schweitzer as his running mate. Things were pretty bad for Udall in the Northeast, that is why he decided to take more focus on the west and on the south, picking Bentsen. However, that wasn't enough: Udall was popular in the West but he lost some ground in the South when Reagan portrayed him as "not-tough on Crime" making some inroads in the Deep South. Bentsen was pretty valuable, crucial in the South. Idaho, Utah, Nevada were big surprises of the night because they tend to go Democrat Way only when it's going to be a landslide, many specialists told that this was a result of the power of Udall with LDS Voters.

Pretty Strange Map


Former Governor Ronald Reagan/ Senator Richard Schweiker (R) 320 EVs 49.8%
Senator Mo Udall/ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D) 218 EVs 49.4%
Former Senator Eugene McCarthy (I) 0,8%

1980 Election (I want to do this timeline)


Governor Jerry Brown/ Senator Jimmy Carter (D) 422 EVs 53.38%
President Ronald Reagan/ Vice-President Richard Schweiker 116 EVs 43,12%
Representative John B. Anderson/ Former Governor Patrick Lucey 0 EV 3,1%
Others 0,4%

To be developed. Jerry Brown goes like Reagan in real life, but his stand on issues can't allow him to destroy Reagan, that performed slightly better than real life President Carter. Oh, talikng about Carter decided to run for Senator after loosing the nomination for Mo Udall!
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2013, 11:16:23 AM »

Interesting, though those maps, especially the first one, require some work. I get the idea you're going for, but it's one of the strangest things I've ever seen.

Indeed Cathcon, Indeed...
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2013, 11:24:19 AM »

Interesting, though those maps, especially the first one, require some work. I get the idea you're going for, but it's one of the strangest things I've ever seen.

How could we improve the first map? I can see that happening in the West and In the North, but I feel that the South has been pretty awkward.
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2013, 06:23:27 PM »

BUMP!
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2013, 08:26:02 PM »

Been too lazy to tackle this, but I'll try at a later point.

You will have credit on my timeline if you help me =D
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2013, 09:32:21 PM »

While I see these maps as "do-able", I don't think they're possible for the given candidates. I tried to hazard a guess for these two scenarios.

1976:



I can see Udall potentially nabbing Texas with Bentsen on the ticket given the strength of the TXDP at the time, but I think that's where it ends. Udall's a bit of an eccentric figure and I'm not sure he'd do well on the national stage, though the unpopularity of the Republican Party and Reagan's conservatism stops it from being a blowout. Coincidentally this map is pretty close to the EV count in yours (308 - 230 Reagan.)

EDIT: Forgot Reagan had Schweicker as his running-mate in your scenario.

Schweicker would change the game in 1976, but your map looks nice as well. Regarding 1980... Imagine that Reagan presidency was not that great, simillar to Jimmy Carter one Tongue
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2013, 06:25:14 PM »

There is only way of making Reagan loose some states in the Deep South and the only way is by vote-splitting! Jesse Helms get mad that Schweizer got the VP Nomination and decides to run for President. Helms calls Schweitzer a communist just like Udall and that America needed Real Options!

He picks a very conservative VP and runs mainly in the Deep South. Then, he splits voting on NC, SC, LA, AR, AL, MS and GE. Third place on Democratic Primaries, behind Udall and Brown, Jimmy Carter makes a victory possible in Georgia!
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2013, 11:49:01 AM »

bump
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2013, 07:41:44 AM »

Bump!
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2013, 04:23:41 PM »

Please folks! More ideas!
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2014, 06:49:05 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2014, 08:47:01 PM by SoIA Superique »

New idea...

Former Governor Ronald Reagan/ Senator Richard Schweiker (R) 291 EVs 48.2%
Senator Mo Udall/ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D) 247 EVs 47.8%
Senator Jesse Helms/ Lt.Gov Lester Maddox (AI) 0 EVs 3.4%
Senator Eugene McCarthy  (I) 0,6%

North Carolina:
Morris Udall (D) 40.31%
Jesse Helms (AI) 31.58%
Ronald Reagan (R) 28.11%

Georgia:
Morris Udall (D) 43.26%
Ronald Reagan (R) 32.53%
Jesse Helms (AI) 24.21%

Oklahoma:
Morris Udall (D) 44.89%
Ronald Reagan (R) 43.51%
Jesse Helms (AI) 11.6%

Ballot Access (AI)Sad


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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2014, 12:05:25 PM »

Jesse Helms withdrew his support for Reagan in the Convention when he picked Schweiker. I could expect something like that happening...
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2014, 07:31:15 PM »




Former Governor Ronald Reagan/ Senator Richard Schweiker (R) 287 EVs 49.1%
Senator Mo Udall/ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D) 251 EVs 48.6%
Senator Eugene McCarthy  (I) 0 EVs 1.7%
Roger MacBride / David Bergland (L) 0 EVs 0,6%

That is the way that looks the best =P
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #13 on: January 06, 2014, 06:08:53 PM »

Why would Reagan be unable to get OH when he won a majority in IL? Several of the factors of the '76 election were specific to those two candidates. IL and OH are good examples of such.

Ford won IL and loose OH. Reagan would not have this great appeal on that region, would him?

It was a close state anyway but I can change that....
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #14 on: December 14, 2014, 09:59:05 PM »

BUMP Tongue
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2014, 10:28:59 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2014, 10:59:52 PM by Citizen Superique »





Former Governor Ronald Reagan/ Senator Richard Schweiker (R) 309 EVs 49.8%
Senator Mo Udall/ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D) 229 EVs 48.1%
Senator Eugene McCarthy  (I) 0 EVs 1.5%
Roger MacBride / David Bergland (L) 0 EVs 0,6%

This is an alternative....
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Sec. of State Superique
Superique
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,305
Brazil


« Reply #16 on: December 18, 2014, 01:30:11 PM »
« Edited: December 18, 2014, 03:46:28 PM by Citizen Superique »


Former Governor Ronald Reagan/ Senator Richard Schweiker (R) 309 EVs 49.8%
Senator Mo Udall/ Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D) 229 EVs 48.1%
Senator Eugene McCarthy  (I) 0 EVs 1.5%
Roger MacBride / David Bergland (L) 0 EVs 0,6%

This is an alternative....

Udall is too liberal to win Oklahoma, particularly against a candidate of Reagan's ability. I'd have NJ as being at least as Republican as PA, even with Schweiker, and switch CT and IA.  Otherwise it looks good - though Udall taking TX is going to be tough.

I tend to agree with you. In my recent works, I'm removing Oklahoma and putting Iowa in place.  Now, I was taking a look at Connecticut and New Jersey, would Reagan conservatism fit well those places well? It seems to me that we are going to be very kind to Reagan by giving 300+ EVs in a 1976 context. I don't know but it seems to me that results in Illinois, Ohio and New Jersey and Connecticut would be extremely close, Reagan would be very lucky anyway Tongue

South Dakota is also an interesting place, maybe it would find a closer match with Udall, although we cannot forget that Mondale, despite his proximity, has not helped Carter there...
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