Texas feeling blue or seeing red?

[President Tyrion]

In what year, if at all, do you believe Texas will shift from the Republicans to the Democrats?

[ElectionsGuy]

Who knows, however if it does go blue in the future (atlas red) then it will because the urban centers took more control over the state than suburban and rural vote. Tarrant County has been a great bellwether county in the state for years, it will be the county to watch if the states trends democratic.

Urban counties have swung democratic, while rural counties have swung republican, this is why the state is keeping still, however if urban population trends/swings democratic while rural vote stays the same, you'll see a big difference, and if that continues, it could be on its path to a leaning R/Battleground State. The gubernatorial/senatorial election in 2014 and the presidential election in 2016 are important to watch in order to see which way Texas will go in the future, whether it will stay the same, trend democratic, or trend republican (yes it's possible, democrats).

However senate and gubernatorial races don't always reflect a state's conservatism/liberalism, so we'll really have to wait until 2016 to see what the state brings us, and we can predict from there. Right now it's just too early.

[President Tyrion]

Who knows, however if it does go blue in the future (atlas red) then it will because the urban centers took more control over the state than suburban and rural vote. Tarrant County has been a great bellwether county in the state for years, it will be the county to watch if the states trends democratic.

Urban counties have swung democratic, while rural counties have swung republican, this is why the state is keeping still, however if urban population trends/swings democratic while rural vote stays the same, you'll see a big difference, and if that continues, it could be on its path to a leaning R/Battleground State. The gubernatorial/senatorial election in 2014 and the presidential election in 2016 are important to watch in order to see which way Texas will go in the future, whether it will stay the same, trend democratic, or trend republican (yes it's possible, democrats).

However senate and gubernatorial races don't always reflect a state's conservatism/liberalism, so we'll really have to wait until 2016 to see what the state brings us, and we can predict from there. Right now it's just too early.

Do you have an opinion, going forward? You seem to think 2016 won't be the year it switched over. Let's extrapolate a bit (not scientific, but whatever). Do you think it goes from R/Battleground in 2016, to a pure battleground in 2020, to a 2024 Dem/Battleground? Or is the evolution slower/faster?

[barfbag]

The next Republican president will likely make strides to reach out to the Hispanic Community or at least should. This has to be done before we can expect to have more votes from Hispanics. Once this happens, the trend will slow down or even out. This will happen before Texas has enough time to become blue.

[illegaloperation]

Tarrant County is the bellwether for Texas.

When it goes blue, so will Texas.

[illegaloperation]

I think the more appropriate question at this point is "when can Democrats win statewide elections" in Texas rather than "when can Democratic presidents win Texas".

[Orser67]

http://www.npr.org/series/196613711/texas-2020

I recommend that series of articles from NPR. It's called "Texas 2020," and my hope is that Texas will be somewhere along the lines of North Carolina (Republican-leaning but obtainable) by 2020, but imo that's probably a best-case scenario.

Democrats face a big challenge in a)getting more Hispanics to vote and b)cutting into Texas Republicans' traditional strength among Hispanics (relative to other state Republican parties). On the other hand, I could see a (potentially increasingly) conservative Texas state government helping to mobilize these minorities, and it does seem like Democrats (might) be looking into investing into the state in the long-term.

There's a bunch of interesting graphs here:
http://txredistricting.org/post/50273731090/texas-missing-18-24-year-old-voters

[pbrower2a]

Texas has something in common with Arizona and Georgia: that its suburbs are now very conservative politically. Barack Obama made huge strides in suburbs of most giant cities -- but not Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, or San Diego. It could be that those suburbs are comparatively new and have few young voters. It could also be that those suburbs reap the benefit of their comparative newness by having infrastructure in lesser need of costly renovations and repairs and that devour tax revenues. Contrast suburbs of Philadelphia that have been in existence for nearly 70 years.


In 2008 Texas went roughly 55-45 for John McCain, but voters under 30 went roughly 55-45 for Barack Obama in Texas. Such bodes ill for Republicans even in Texas. Voting patterns set early rarely change, except that people become more likely to vote as they get older. Note also that the voters for Obama are getting to the age in which they become participants in the political process as candidates.  Such candidates might successfully excite younger voters -- and few of them will be Tea Party types.

But get lots of young adults who have retail, food service, and cleaning jobs who have no obvious stake in right-wing economics... and things drift leftward.  

[eric82oslo]

There's a bunch of interesting graphs here:
http://txredistricting.org/post/50273731090/texas-missing-18-24-year-old-voters

Awesome article/statistics. It is shocking how low the turnout rate is among Texas Hispanics and in particular the young ones! While older Texans meaning voters 65+ vote at considerably higher levels than the US as a whole (!) [which is 75%+ white], the voting patterns of the 18-24 year olds is in such a stark contrast to that of the entire US, something like US youngsters 40%, Texas only 25%. It's a really sad story. And this just goes to underscore even further the importance of Hillary choosing a young latino politician to accomany her on the ticket. Preferably someone from Texas, like one of the Castro twins. Yet even the young governor of Puerto Rico could possibly be an alternative I suppose? However a Texas latino would be a smarter choice I think, for some obvious reasons.

[barfbag]

Remember there's a lot of Republican money in Texas.

[ElectionsGuy]

Who knows, however if it does go blue in the future (atlas red) then it will because the urban centers took more control over the state than suburban and rural vote. Tarrant County has been a great bellwether county in the state for years, it will be the county to watch if the states trends democratic.

Urban counties have swung democratic, while rural counties have swung republican, this is why the state is keeping still, however if urban population trends/swings democratic while rural vote stays the same, you'll see a big difference, and if that continues, it could be on its path to a leaning R/Battleground State. The gubernatorial/senatorial election in 2014 and the presidential election in 2016 are important to watch in order to see which way Texas will go in the future, whether it will stay the same, trend democratic, or trend republican (yes it's possible, democrats).

However senate and gubernatorial races don't always reflect a state's conservatism/liberalism, so we'll really have to wait until 2016 to see what the state brings us, and we can predict from there. Right now it's just too early.

Do you have an opinion, going forward? You seem to think 2016 won't be the year it switched over. Let's extrapolate a bit (not scientific, but whatever). Do you think it goes from R/Battleground in 2016, to a pure battleground in 2020, to a 2024 Dem/Battleground? Or is the evolution slower/faster?

With speculation and opinion, I really think it won't become blue or even competitive for the next decade or so, however I could be wrong and there could be a democratic trend starting in '16 which could rapidly change the state, I'm basing my writings off a what has happened so far, I can't predict the future.

I will guess that it will very slowly trend democratic over many years and eventually only lean republican, by that time some other leaning democratic states today should be competitive for republicans, and by the time Texas goes battleground or blue, republicans have other states to count on to make up for the huge (40+ EV's in the future) state of Texas. But hey it's just a guess.    Timeline?

2020's: Texas trends slightly democratic but still solid GOP and some now leaning democratic states become pure toss-ups
2030's: Texas moves into Lean R/Toss-Up Mode while Midwestern states like IA, WI, MN, and PA are now lean republican.
2040's: Texas is now leaning D and all those Midwestern states I mentioned are solidly republican.

Remember this is all speculation.

[Space7]

I realize that Texas has a large potential left-wing population, but even though I'm from the left I tend to agree with much of the right on this issue, or at least for now.

It is virtually a necessity that the Republicans win Texas. This alone will most likely result in the Republicans winning it because they will be sure to take steps to ensure it doesn't slip out of their grasp.

You could argue that the Democrats will lose Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and they will swap, but as of right now, it appears to me as if we have reached an electoral balancing point. The states seem to have polarized and settled since the last big realignment (when the deep south went from Democratic to Republican).

Sure you'll have a few states like Virginia and North Carolina that are trending in a certain direction because of population changes in the big cities, but overall, we've seen a great lack of movement in the recent elections, Texas included. Even if we had huge turnout increases for the potential Democrat population I think it would still fall a bit short of having a leftwards lean.

And of course, the Republicans of Texas are very powerful.

I don't think you are all wrong, I say Texas will go Democratic eventually (chaos theory), but by that time I think there will have been a new political realignment and it won't have been a trend, but an entirely new electoral jigsaw where Texas fits in someplace else.

I'm not set in my ways here though. I'd love to see Texas go Democratic, and if anyone can convince me it will that it would be great.

[Sconnie]

Democrats these days are a big cocky with regard to Texas. Texas is as Republican as it has ever been; it has yet to trend Democrat. It still has a PVI of R+10, meaning it is unlikely to be competitive for several elections if indeed it trends Democrat in the future. Hispanics are likely to trend Republican in the future as they assimilate and move up the social ladder, so Democratic gains are not guaranteed. And Republicans are countering the Democrats' efforts in Texas as we speak.

Even if Texas becomes a purple or blue state, I'm not worried about the national GOP. They will simply do better in other states, Upper Midwestern states being prime candidates. No state is dominated by one political party forever (except for Maryland, perhaps), meaning some states will shift one way and other states will shift the other way to keep presidential elections competitive.

[President Tyrion]

Democrats these days are a big cocky with regard to Texas. Texas is as Republican as it has ever been; it has yet to trend Democrat. It still has a PVI of R+10, meaning it is unlikely to be competitive for several elections if indeed it trends Democrat in the future. Hispanics are likely to trend Republican in the future as they assimilate and move up the social ladder, so Democratic gains are not guaranteed. And Republicans are countering the Democrats' efforts in Texas as we speak.

Even if Texas becomes a purple or blue state, I'm not worried about the national GOP. They will simply do better in other states, Upper Midwestern states being prime candidates. No state is dominated by one political party forever (except for Maryland, perhaps), meaning some states will shift one way and other states will shift the other way to keep presidential elections competitive.

Texan Hispanics already vote for Republicans at the highest rate. Not only do you think that's sustainable, with current Republican immigration policy the way that it is, but you think Republicans will make gains?

[eric82oslo]

Democrats these days are a big cocky with regard to Texas. Texas is as Republican as it has ever been; it has yet to trend Democrat. It still has a PVI of R+10, meaning it is unlikely to be competitive for several elections if indeed it trends Democrat in the future. Hispanics are likely to trend Republican in the future as they assimilate and move up the social ladder, so Democratic gains are not guaranteed. And Republicans are countering the Democrats' efforts in Texas as we speak.

Even if Texas becomes a purple or blue state, I'm not worried about the national GOP. They will simply do better in other states, Upper Midwestern states being prime candidates. No state is dominated by one political party forever (except for Maryland, perhaps), meaning some states will shift one way and other states will shift the other way to keep presidential elections competitive.

Texan Hispanics already vote for Republicans at the highest rate. Not only do you think that's sustainable, with current Republican immigration policy the way that it is, but you think Republicans will make gains?

Texas Hispanics are extremely young, so it's silly to expect that Republicans will make any gains with them at all. Only the money machine could potentially do that job and even that won't be cheap. There's just no way Hispanic women in Texas will go Republican. According to reports, male Texas Republican politicians are the most immature and sexist in the US. The few congressional women in Austin, even the Republican women, are really upset about them.

[President Tyrion]

Democrats these days are a big cocky with regard to Texas. Texas is as Republican as it has ever been; it has yet to trend Democrat. It still has a PVI of R+10, meaning it is unlikely to be competitive for several elections if indeed it trends Democrat in the future. Hispanics are likely to trend Republican in the future as they assimilate and move up the social ladder, so Democratic gains are not guaranteed. And Republicans are countering the Democrats' efforts in Texas as we speak.

Even if Texas becomes a purple or blue state, I'm not worried about the national GOP. They will simply do better in other states, Upper Midwestern states being prime candidates. No state is dominated by one political party forever (except for Maryland, perhaps), meaning some states will shift one way and other states will shift the other way to keep presidential elections competitive.

Texan Hispanics already vote for Republicans at the highest rate. Not only do you think that's sustainable, with current Republican immigration policy the way that it is, but you think Republicans will make gains?

Texas Hispanics are extremely young, so it's silly to expect that Republicans will make any gains with them at all. Only the money machine could potentially do that job and even that won't be cheap. There's just no way Hispanic women in Texas will go Republican. According to reports, male Texas Republican politicians are the most immature and sexist in the US. The few congressional women in Austin, even the Republican women, are really upset about them.

Agreed on the youth. Plus, the money train is a bit of a misleading fact, as the Democrats are obviously capable of spending, too. No amount of spending will change Republican policy, however, and that frankly will be a turnoff to the Hispanic population.

[opebo]

Its gonna be Dem winnable tossup by 2024 or 2028.  Those old white people are dying off in droves every year.

[badgate]

The first time will be the hardest. Once we get democrats in office statewide, those morons that refuse to consider voting D will realize our policies actually help them.

[President Tyrion]

The first time will be the hardest. Once we get democrats in office statewide, those morons that refuse to consider voting D will realize our policies actually help them.

Well, first of all, that's what she said.

Secondly, I wouldn't be so presumptuous to call an entire bloc of voters "morons" and then assume they will see the light. You can't have it both ways. Either they're morons, or they're capable of acting in what you believe to be rational self interest.

[barfbag]

Democrats these days are a big cocky with regard to Texas. Texas is as Republican as it has ever been; it has yet to trend Democrat. It still has a PVI of R+10, meaning it is unlikely to be competitive for several elections if indeed it trends Democrat in the future. Hispanics are likely to trend Republican in the future as they assimilate and move up the social ladder, so Democratic gains are not guaranteed. And Republicans are countering the Democrats' efforts in Texas as we speak.

Even if Texas becomes a purple or blue state, I'm not worried about the national GOP. They will simply do better in other states, Upper Midwestern states being prime candidates. No state is dominated by one political party forever (except for Maryland, perhaps), meaning some states will shift one way and other states will shift the other way to keep presidential elections competitive.

Democrats are cocky about everything. They call those who disagree with them morons as if they know what's right for others more than others know what's right for themselves which is very elitist. Sure Republicans might be elitist about their country and throughout the private sector, but when it comes to political ideas it's uncalled for. If you don't believe me, then look at badgate's comments a few posts up.