KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky
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  KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky
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Author Topic: KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky  (Read 57311 times)
Marston
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« Reply #425 on: October 30, 2014, 02:33:54 PM »

There will be another Bluegrass/SUSA poll out today @ 7:30PM EST, I think.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #426 on: October 30, 2014, 02:43:55 PM »

Mellman said today that Grimes is behind.
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Marston
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« Reply #427 on: October 30, 2014, 02:59:18 PM »

Mellman said today that Grimes is behind.

He's calling that inaccurate now, apparently.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #428 on: October 30, 2014, 04:05:00 PM »

Mellman said today it's a perfect tie.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #429 on: October 30, 2014, 04:14:41 PM »

There will be another Bluegrass/SUSA poll out today @ 7:30PM EST, I think.

Crossing my fingers. They've been Grimes' best pollster, if they show her out of it, there's probably no hope left.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #430 on: October 30, 2014, 10:34:12 PM »

There will be another Bluegrass/SUSA poll out today @ 7:30PM EST, I think.

Crossing my fingers. They've been Grimes' best pollster, if they show her out of it, there's probably no hope left.

Well... there's no hope left (or at least not much anyway).

Still curious to see what PPP says.
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KCDem
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« Reply #431 on: October 30, 2014, 11:13:44 PM »

There will be another Bluegrass/SUSA poll out today @ 7:30PM EST, I think.

Crossing my fingers. They've been Grimes' best pollster, if they show her out of it, there's probably no hope left.

Well... there's no hope left (or at least not much anyway).

Still curious to see what PPP says.

It's doubtful that this race swung 4 points in a week.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #432 on: October 31, 2014, 09:07:19 AM »

lol

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/mitch-mcconnells-campaign-event-proves-sleepy-underwhelming?adbid=763319030431018&adbpl=fb&adbpr=273864989376427&cid=sm_m_main_1_20141031_34713147
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Whacker77
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« Reply #433 on: October 31, 2014, 01:10:51 PM »


I read the initial story and I read the follow up that included Mellman's pushback.  However, I saw no comment suggesting he called the race a perfect tie.  Maybe I missed that though.  What I did read is he contended that "not ahead" doesn't mean "we're losing".

If we're playing with semantics, maybe that was his way of saying the race is tied.  If that is the case, why not say it's a dead heat?  Why not say it's within the margin of error?  Why not say it's trending her way?  There were a whole host of phrases he could have used that would have conveyed something more positive for her.

I would note the author of the US News and World Report piece, David Cantnese, said when he pressed Mellman for proof the race was tied, Mellman declined to offer any.  OK, that's fine.  He doesn't need to cowtow to a reporter, but I would say this.  Mellman hasn't released any internal polling in more than a month.  I think that speaks volumes, especially considering he's doing so in Udall's race.

One last piece of data.  One of the state's longtime political reporters, Ronnie Ellis, wrote a story today suggesting bad news for Grimes.  That's just his opinion, but he included this quote.  He said at a campaign rally last Friday, October 24, one of Grimes' top advisors, unprovoked, told him, “Well, whatever happens we gave him a run for his money.”

http://www.glasgowdailytimes.com/opinion/ronnie-ellis-bad-signs-for-grimes-campaign/article_22debd54-610a-11e4-8235-9bd47825df3f.html
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Whacker77
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« Reply #434 on: October 31, 2014, 01:15:40 PM »

There will be another Bluegrass/SUSA poll out today @ 7:30PM EST, I think.

Crossing my fingers. They've been Grimes' best pollster, if they show her out of it, there's probably no hope left.

Well... there's no hope left (or at least not much anyway).

Still curious to see what PPP says.

It's doubtful that this race swung 4 points in a week.

Respectfully, I think it's more likely the last two iterations of the Survey USA/Bluegrass poll weren't right.  Both showed McConnell only tied with men while other contemporary results showed him with at least a 10 point lead among the gender.

I don't have an inside source, but I do have some intel suggesting McConnell's own polling, along with polling from the NRSC and other affiliated groups, showed him pulling away after the first debate and establishing a 6-8 point lead while approaching 50.

Feel free to discount that information, but I think it's interesting Mellman hasn't released any of his own polling on the race while doing so several times for Udall.  Just as importantly, when informed of the Bluegrass Survery USA results, Grimes' campaign touted their GOTV operation.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #435 on: October 31, 2014, 01:25:42 PM »

Long story short, the whole thing hinges on turnout. Entirely.

Good turnout means Grimes wins.

Bad turnout means 6 more years of Howdy Doody.
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jfern
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« Reply #436 on: October 31, 2014, 04:09:49 PM »

Republicans are mailing official seeming letters with "ELECTION VIOLATING NOTICE" that are of course attacking Grimes. Kentycky Republican party and McConnell campaign = total scumbags.



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/31/1340676/-McConnell-s-Kentucky-GOP-threatens-Grimes-voters-with-fraud-charges-just-for-listening-to-Grimes
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #437 on: October 31, 2014, 04:13:13 PM »

Republicans are mailing official seeming letters with "ELECTION VIOLATING NOTICE" that are of course attacking Grimes. Kentycky Republican party and McConnell campaign = total scumbags.



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/31/1340676/-McConnell-s-Kentucky-GOP-threatens-Grimes-voters-with-fraud-charges-just-for-listening-to-Grimes


Obviously sketchy as hell, but that's actually a great idea, tbh.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #438 on: October 31, 2014, 04:20:43 PM »

Republicans are mailing official seeming letters with "ELECTION VIOLATING NOTICE" that are of course attacking Grimes. Kentycky Republican party and McConnell campaign = total scumbags.



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/31/1340676/-McConnell-s-Kentucky-GOP-threatens-Grimes-voters-with-fraud-charges-just-for-listening-to-Grimes

Who cares? Grimes won't say who she voted for. Disqualified!
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« Reply #439 on: November 02, 2014, 12:48:27 PM »


This still true by any chance? Hope it is...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #440 on: November 02, 2014, 12:50:01 PM »


All the polls say no.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #441 on: November 02, 2014, 12:56:34 PM »


What I see on the ground says it is. But polls don't back it up.
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Harry
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« Reply #442 on: November 02, 2014, 12:59:02 PM »


Yeah, but they always did. I'm wondering if Grimes' team still thinks she's going to win.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #443 on: November 02, 2014, 01:08:36 PM »


Yeah, but they always did. I'm wondering if Grimes' team still thinks she's going to win.

I think they do.
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KCDem
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« Reply #444 on: November 02, 2014, 01:19:42 PM »


Yeah, but they always did. I'm wondering if Grimes' team still thinks she's going to win.

I think they do.

She will lose but not by 8 points.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #445 on: November 02, 2014, 02:22:23 PM »

If KCDem is saying she's going to lose, I think it's safe to say it's over.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #446 on: November 02, 2014, 07:19:12 PM »

If KCDem is saying she's going to lose, I think it's safe to say it's over.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #447 on: November 03, 2014, 12:16:40 AM »

If KCDem is saying she's going to lose, I think it's safe to say it's over.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #448 on: November 03, 2014, 09:43:45 AM »


Yeah, but they always did. I'm wondering if Grimes' team still thinks she's going to win.

I think they do.

If they still think that, she needs a better team Tongue
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KCDem
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« Reply #449 on: November 03, 2014, 09:50:59 AM »

^^^they probably think they have a path to victory, which they do if turnout is exceptional and McConnell's ground game phones it in.
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