KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky

[Whacker77]

Mellman said today it's a perfect tie.

I read the initial story and I read the follow up that included Mellman's pushback.  However, I saw no comment suggesting he called the race a perfect tie.  Maybe I missed that though.  What I did read is he contended that "not ahead" doesn't mean "we're losing".

If we're playing with semantics, maybe that was his way of saying the race is tied.  If that is the case, why not say it's a dead heat?  Why not say it's within the margin of error?  Why not say it's trending her way?  There were a whole host of phrases he could have used that would have conveyed something more positive for her.

I would note the author of the US News and World Report piece, David Cantnese, said when he pressed Mellman for proof the race was tied, Mellman declined to offer any.  OK, that's fine.  He doesn't need to cowtow to a reporter, but I would say this.  Mellman hasn't released any internal polling in more than a month.  I think that speaks volumes, especially considering he's doing so in Udall's race.

One last piece of data.  One of the state's longtime political reporters, Ronnie Ellis, wrote a story today suggesting bad news for Grimes.  That's just his opinion, but he included this quote.  He said at a campaign rally last Friday, October 24, one of Grimes' top advisors, unprovoked, told him, “Well, whatever happens we gave him a run for his money.”

http://www.glasgowdailytimes.com/opinion/ronnie-ellis-bad-signs-for-grimes-campaign/article_22debd54-610a-11e4-8235-9bd47825df3f.html

[Whacker77]

There will be another Bluegrass/SUSA poll out today @ 7:30PM EST, I think.

Crossing my fingers. They've been Grimes' best pollster, if they show her out of it, there's probably no hope left.

Well... there's no hope left (or at least not much anyway).

Still curious to see what PPP says.

It's doubtful that this race swung 4 points in a week.

Respectfully, I think it's more likely the last two iterations of the Survey USA/Bluegrass poll weren't right.  Both showed McConnell only tied with men while other contemporary results showed him with at least a 10 point lead among the gender.

I don't have an inside source, but I do have some intel suggesting McConnell's own polling, along with polling from the NRSC and other affiliated groups, showed him pulling away after the first debate and establishing a 6-8 point lead while approaching 50.

Feel free to discount that information, but I think it's interesting Mellman hasn't released any of his own polling on the race while doing so several times for Udall.  Just as importantly, when informed of the Bluegrass Survery USA results, Grimes' campaign touted their GOTV operation.