KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky

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McConnell's going to win the primary and one of those three senators will likely be gone in 2017, so I don't think their "non-endorsement" will have much of an impact.  Even the Tea Party knows they'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to successfully oust their would-be Majority Leader.

I really don't think they realize that.  If not Kentucky,  they'll hand us another seat in 2014.

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McConnell's going to win the primary and one of those three senators will likely be gone in 2017, so I don't think their "non-endorsement" will have much of an impact.  Even the Tea Party knows they'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to successfully oust their would-be Majority Leader.

I really don't think they realize that.  If not Kentucky,  they'll hand us another seat in 2014.

What seat?

Who knows?  The Tea Party handed us Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado in '10 and Missouri and Indiana in '12.  I'm sure they'll hand us a couple seats in '14.  Kentucky, Georgia, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, Alaska, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Maine -- could be any of these potentially.  It's too hard to predict this far out, but I guarantee at least 1 of these states will nominate a complete buffoon as the Republican who hands the seat to the Democrat, while a more mainstream Republican who would've won loses the primary.

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OK, but you can't guarantee anything. Your assuming that there will be a bad republican candidate but no democratic slip-up, and that's simply because republicans have done bad lately. Out of the states you mentioned as possible pickups... Thinking the democrats have a chance of taking Texas or Mississippi is a bit absurd,

I think you're misunderstanding me.  Of course Texas and Mississippi are longshots.  The only way Democrats win is if Republicans nominate an off-the-deep-end Tea Party-type and Democrats run a decent candidate.  The fact that it's happened in 5 of the last 67 Senate races, and the Tea Party still doesn't get it, leads me to believe it will happen again somewhere.  Maybe not in those states, but somewhere.

West Virginia and South Dakota are almost locked in for republicans (as long as Mike Rounds and Shelley Moore Capito run and get nominated as expected),

Obviously if Rounds and Capito are the candidates, Republicans are very likely to win.  But somewhere in the country, the Tea Party is going to get some fool nominated and cause Republicans to lose a seat they otherwise would have won.  SD and WV are prime candidates.

Maine is fine as long as Collins runs (I believe she is)

The Tea Party types sure hate Collins, and if they knock her out in the primary, Democrats will probably win the seat.  Granted, I don't think it's very likely, but you just never know.  I didn't think there was any way Democrats would win Dick Lugar's seat, but then the Tea Party fixed it for us.

and the others are mostly toss-ups (GA and KY lean R).

If McConnell wins the primary, Republicans probably win.  If a non-Tea Partier in Georgia wins the nomination, Republicans are very likely to win.  But I wouldn't be surprised in the least if an Akin-type ends up being the nominee in one or both of these states.

Again, I'm not saying that Democrats will win any of these seats if Republicans run reasonable conservatives instead of Akin/Murdouch/Angle/O'Donell/Buck - types.  But there's just too much will within the Republican base to nominate that type of candidate, so somewhere they probably will.

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That's one of the most amazing political ads ever.  I like Bevin now.

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Bevin will inevitably be using this line to rile up support/fundraising:

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Mcconnell is so confident.

He's probably right, though, at least in the seriously contested states.  And even though that might hurt Democrats this November, it's definitely good for the country.

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McConnell smiles like Odo.

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Meh, dumb ad. I'm not going to be too disappointed over her loss.

Kynect is one of Obama's biggest success stories and easily the most popular Democratic achievement in the state of Kentucky. "McConnell wants to get rid of Kynect, but I support it" should be the #1 focus of her campaign.

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Of course she voted for Obama. What kind of moron ever thought that she didn't?

Maybe Obama's approval rating wouldn't be so low in the Deep South if the local Democrats weren't always so ashamed to admit they like him. How can you blame Joe Blow voters for not liking a guy they've only ever heard 100% negative things about?

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Only like 20,000 people in Kentucky actually even work in the coal industry? Why do people care so much about this? I wish Grimes had the guts to tell them that their industry is destroying the planet and the sooner is vanishes into history the better.

Or she could tactfully point out how the Democrats are going to be a lot more helpful to the suddenly-unemployed people who used to work in the coal industry once it goes away than the Republicans would be.

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@howardfineman

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This still true by any chance? Hope it is...

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All the polls say no.

Yeah, but they always did. I'm wondering if Grimes' team still thinks she's going to win.