Where do the states fall?

[barfbag]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Safe GOP          Solid GOP        Likely GOP         Leans GOP         Barely GOP

Utah                 Alabama         South Carolina    Montana            Virginia
Wyoming          Kansas            Georgia             Tennessee          Florida
Idaho               Kentucky         Arizona              Indiana
Oklahoma         South Dakota                           Missouri
Nebraska          Texas                                      North Carolina
Alaska              Mississippi
North Dakota    Louisiana
                       Arkansas
                       West Virginia


Safe Dem         Solid Dem         Likely Dem       Leans Dem               Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland          Washington      Maine                       New Mexico
Hawaii              California          New Jersey      Michigan                   Nevada
Rhode Island    Connecticut                              Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                                 Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                                     Pennsylvania
New York                                                        Wisconsin  
                                                                      Iowa
                                                                      New Hampshire

                                               Toss Up
 
                                                 Ohio
                                               Colorado

[publicunofficial]

My take:



Safe GOP               Solid GOP                Likely GOP             Leans GOP             Barely GOP
  
Utah                      South Dakota        South Carolina        Arizona                   Florida
Idaho                    Texas                     Montana                 Georgia                  North Carolina
Wyoming               Tennessee             Missouri                  Indiana
North Dakota        Kentucky                Alaska
Nebraska              Louisiana               Arkansas
Kansas                 West Virginia
Oklahoma             Mississippi
Alabama


Safe Dem             Solid Dem           Likely Dem               Leans Dem           Barely Dem

D.C.                     California            Delaware                 Minnesota            Nevada
Hawaii                 Connecticut        New Mexico              Pennsylvania       New Hampshire
Vermont              Washington        Illinois                      Iowa                    Wisconsin
Maryland             New Jersey         Maine                       Michigan
Massachusetts                               Oregon                   
New York
Rhode Island
                                                        Toss Up

                                                         Virginia
                                                           Ohio
                                                        Colorado


This is for 2012-2013. I imagine by 2016 Virginia will be Barely Dem and North Carolina will be Toss-Up. Georgia and Texas might have moved a bit more towards the middle by then as well.

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe GOP               Solid GOP                Likely GOP             Leans GOP             Barely GOP
  
Utah                      Kentucky                 West Virginia          Montana                Virginia
Wyoming               South Dakota           Louisiana                Indiana                 Florida
Idaho                    Texas                      South Carolina        Georgia                 Ohio
Oklahoma              Arkansas                 Tennessee              North Carolina
Nebraska               Mississippi               Arizona                   Missouri
Alaska
Alabama
Kansas
North Dakota


Safe Dem             Solid Dem           Likely Dem               Leans Dem           Barely Dem

D.C.                    Maryland              Delaware                 Oregon                 New Mexico          
Hawaii                 Connecticut          Illinois                     Michigan               New Hampshire
Rhode Island        California             New Jersey              Minnesota             Wisconsin
Vermont                                         Maine                      Pennsylvania         Iowa
Massachusetts                                 Washington
New York


                                                        Toss Up

                                                      Colorado 9
                                                       Nevada 6

What elections are we basing this off of? and should I do 5 categories of each party like you do?

[barfbag]

Safe GOP               Solid GOP                Likely GOP             Leans GOP             Barely GOP
  
Utah                      Kentucky                 West Virginia          Montana                Virginia
Wyoming               South Dakota           Louisiana                Indiana                 Florida
Idaho                    Texas                      South Carolina        Georgia                 Ohio
Oklahoma              Arkansas                 Tennessee              North Carolina
Nebraska               Mississippi               Arizona                   Missouri
Alaska
Alabama
Kansas
North Dakota


Safe Dem             Solid Dem           Likely Dem               Leans Dem           Barely Dem

D.C.                    Maryland              Delaware                 Oregon                 New Mexico          
Hawaii                 Connecticut          Illinois                     Michigan               New Hampshire
Rhode Island        California             New Jersey              Minnesota             Wisconsin
Vermont                                         Maine                      Pennsylvania         Iowa
Massachusetts                                 Washington
New York


                                                        Toss Up

                                                      Colorado 9
                                                       Nevada 6

What elections are we basing this off of? and should I do 5 categories of each party like you do?

Yes you can do 5 categories. Some people do 3 or 4 for each party. I based it off of the averages for the 4 most recent elections in combination with some of the more noticeable trends.

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe GOP               Solid GOP                Likely GOP             Leans GOP             Barely GOP
  
Utah                      Kentucky                 West Virginia          Montana                Virginia
Wyoming               South Dakota           Louisiana                Indiana                 Florida
Idaho                    Texas                      South Carolina        Georgia                 Ohio
Oklahoma              Arkansas                 Tennessee              North Carolina
Nebraska               Mississippi               Arizona                   Missouri
Alaska
Alabama
Kansas
North Dakota


Safe Dem             Solid Dem           Likely Dem               Leans Dem           Barely Dem

D.C.                    Maryland              Delaware                 Oregon                 New Mexico          
Hawaii                 Connecticut          Illinois                     Michigan               New Hampshire
Rhode Island        California             New Jersey              Minnesota             Wisconsin
Vermont                                         Maine                      Pennsylvania         Iowa
Massachusetts                                 Washington
New York


                                                        Toss Up

                                                      Colorado 9
                                                       Nevada 6

What elections are we basing this off of? and should I do 5 categories of each party like you do?

Yes you can do 5 categories. Some people do 3 or 4 for each party. I based it off of the averages for the 4 most recent elections in combination with some of the more noticeable trends.

Since Bush's elections are almost irrelevant now when it comes to state trends, I will average 2008-2012 trends and put them into 5 categories. Completely based off numbers and no Toss-ups for most situations. After 2008-2012 I will do 2000-2012 and 2012 alone.

R/D+20.0% or more = Safe
R/D+15.0%-19.9% = Solid
R/D+10.0%-14.9% = Likely
R/D+5.0%-9.9% = Lean
R/D+0.1%-4.9% = Barely
R/D+0.0% = Toss-Up

Safe R: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, NE, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY
Solid R: MS, ND, SC, SD, TX
Likely R: AZ, GA, IN, MO, MT
Lean R: NC
Barely R: FL, OH, VA

Safe D: DC, HI, MD, NY, RI, VT
Solid D: CA, DE, IL, MA
Likely D: CT, ME, NJ, WA
Lean D: MI, NM, OR
Barely D: CO, IA, MN, NV, NH, PA, WI

Now 2000-2012 State Averages (slightly irrelevant, but still fun to do)

Safe R: AL, AK, ID, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, TX, UT, WY
Solid R: AR, LA, MS, MT, SC, SD, TN
Likely R: AZ, GA, IN
Lean R: MO, NC
Barely R: CO, FL, OH, VA

Safe D: DC, HI, MA, NY, RI, VT
Solid D: MD
Likely D: CA, CT, DE, IL, NJ
Lean D: ME, MI, OR, WA
Barely D: IA, MN, NV, NH, NM, PA, WI

And now 2012 exclusively... (the most relevant)

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, NE, ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY
Solid R: AK, MS, MT, TX
Likely R: AZ, GA, IN, MO, SC
Lean R: NC
Barely R: FL, OH

Toss-Up: VA

Safe D: DC, HI, MD, NY, RI, VT
Solid D: CA, MA
Likely D: CT, DE, IL, ME, NJ, WA
Lean D: MI, NM, OR
Barely D: CO, IA, MN, NV, NH, PA, WI

Note: Virginia was so close to the popular vote that I would consider it a true toss-up.
 

[ElectionsGuy]

In Maps:

>90% = Safe
>70% = Solid
>50% = Likely
>40% = Lean
>30% = Barely

2008-2012 Averages:

2000-2012 Averages:

2012 Ratings:

Hopefully you can see the difference between >40% and >50%.

[barfbag]

In Maps:

>90% = Safe
>70% = Solid
>50% = Likely
>40% = Lean
>30% = Barely

2008-2012 Averages:

2000-2012 Averages:

2012 Ratings:

Hopefully you can see the difference between >40% and >50%.

Outstanding work!

[ElectionsGuy]

In Maps:

>90% = Safe
>70% = Solid
>50% = Likely
>40% = Lean
>30% = Barely

2008-2012 Averages:

2000-2012 Averages:

2012 Ratings:

Hopefully you can see the difference between >40% and >50%.

Outstanding work!

Thanks.

[barfbag]

My take:



Safe GOP               Solid GOP                Likely GOP             Leans GOP             Barely GOP
  
Utah                      South Dakota        South Carolina        Arizona                   Florida
Idaho                    Texas                     Montana                 Georgia                  North Carolina
Wyoming               Tennessee             Missouri                  Indiana
North Dakota        Kentucky                Alaska
Nebraska              Louisiana               Arkansas
Kansas                 West Virginia
Oklahoma             Mississippi
Alabama


Safe Dem             Solid Dem           Likely Dem               Leans Dem           Barely Dem

D.C.                     California            Delaware                 Minnesota            Nevada
Hawaii                 Connecticut        New Mexico              Pennsylvania       New Hampshire
Vermont              Washington        Illinois                      Iowa                    Wisconsin
Maryland             New Jersey         Maine                       Michigan
Massachusetts                               Oregon                   
New York
Rhode Island
                                                        Toss Up

                                                         Virginia
                                                           Ohio
                                                        Colorado


This is for 2012-2013. I imagine by 2016 Virginia will be Barely Dem and North Carolina will be Toss-Up. Georgia and Texas might have moved a bit more towards the middle by then as well.

I like your lists.

[barfbag]

Safe GOP          Solid GOP        Likely GOP         Leans GOP         Barely GOP

Utah                 Alabama         South Carolina    Montana            Virginia
Wyoming          Kansas            Georgia             Tennessee          Florida
Idaho               Kentucky         Arizona              Indiana
Oklahoma         South Dakota                           Missouri
Nebraska          Texas                                      North Carolina
Alaska              Mississippi
North Dakota    Louisiana
                       Arkansas
                       West Virginia


Safe Dem         Solid Dem         Likely Dem       Leans Dem               Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland          Washington      Maine                       New Mexico
Hawaii              California          New Jersey      Michigan                   Nevada
Rhode Island    Connecticut                              Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                                 Minnesota
Massachusetts                                                 Pennsylvania
New York                                                        Wisconsin   
                                                                      Iowa
                                                                      New Hampshire

                                               Toss Up
 
                                                 Ohio
                                               Colorado

[barfbag]

Is my coloring distinct enough?

[Skill and Chance]

It's very hard to imagine a Democrat winning Ohio while losing Virginia going forward.

[kcguy]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

[barfbag]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

[opebo]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

How did you make that nifty non-Atlas map?  I'd like to make one.  Actually I'd just make the same thing except PA leans D.

[PolitiJunkie]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

[barfbag]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

[old timey villain]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years. It went from strong D as part of the solid south to very strong R up until 1988 (with the exception of 1976) , then lean R in the 90s, then totally even in 2000 and since then it's been slightly lean R.

A state that will continue to grow and evolve as much as Florida will definitely see changes in its partisan make up in the future.

[barfbag]

Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years. It went from strong D as part of the solid south to very strong R up until 1988 (with the exception of 1976) , then lean R in the 90s, then totally even in 2000 and since then it's been slightly lean R.

A state that will continue to grow and evolve as much as Florida will definitely see changes in its partisan make up in the future.
[/quote]

I see what you're saying but other than 1976, Florida has been right of center in all of the last 16 elections.

2000 +1
2004 +2
2008 +4
2012 +3

There's hardly any movement to speak of.

[illegaloperation]

Note: non-Atlas colors

[Devils30]

   For right now Florida is still right of center but there are reasons to believe Dems can make it the opposite. The 2000-2012 trend toward the GOP was mostly from GOP gains in northern FL (and a few old people who voted Gore in Palm Beach) but now they are mostly maxed out here.
The electorate was 67% white in 2012 but the Census had the population at 57% white. Unlike Texas, FL doesnt have that many ineligible to vote immigrants b/c Cubans and Puerto Ricans. If FL is 64% white and whites vote for Hillary like they did for Kerry (42%) of vote, the Dems are looking at a 7-9% victory.
   The real lesson is that the GOP needs to make gains with Hispanics or else Florida could slip away long-term. Obama definitely underperformed in these counties and still won: Volusia, Flagler, Palm Beach. Of course Rubio could likely improve with Hispanics here (as could Christie). The wrong candidate could easily turn FL into an easy Hillary victory.

This article described it well: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics

Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years. It went from strong D as part of the solid south to very strong R up until 1988 (with the exception of 1976) , then lean R in the 90s, then totally even in 2000 and since then it's been slightly lean R.

A state that will continue to grow and evolve as much as Florida will definitely see changes in its partisan make up in the future.

I see what you're saying but other than 1976, Florida has been right of center in all of the last 16 elections.

2000 +1
2004 +2
2008 +4
2012 +3

There's hardly any movement to speak of.
[/quote]

[barfbag]

  For right now Florida is still right of center but there are reasons to believe Dems can make it the opposite. The 2000-2012 trend toward the GOP was mostly from GOP gains in northern FL (and a few old people who voted Gore in Palm Beach) but now they are mostly maxed out here.
The electorate was 67% white in 2012 but the Census had the population at 57% white. Unlike Texas, FL doesnt have that many ineligible to vote immigrants b/c Cubans and Puerto Ricans. If FL is 64% white and whites vote for Hillary like they did for Kerry (42%) of vote, the Dems are looking at a 7-9% victory.
   The real lesson is that the GOP needs to make gains with Hispanics or else Florida could slip away long-term. Obama definitely underperformed in these counties and still won: Volusia, Flagler, Palm Beach. Of course Rubio could likely improve with Hispanics here (as could Christie). The wrong candidate could easily turn FL into an easy Hillary victory.

This article described it well: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics

Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years. It went from strong D as part of the solid south to very strong R up until 1988 (with the exception of 1976) , then lean R in the 90s, then totally even in 2000 and since then it's been slightly lean R.

A state that will continue to grow and evolve as much as Florida will definitely see changes in its partisan make up in the future.

I see what you're saying but other than 1976, Florida has been right of center in all of the last 16 elections.

2000 +1
2004 +2
2008 +4
2012 +3

There's hardly any movement to speak of.

[/quote]

I'm not arguing Clinton could win at all. If Florida were going that way soon though we would've seen Obama winning by more. In another decade what you're saying is possible, but only time will tell.

[Non Swing Voter]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Safe GOP          Solid GOP        Likely GOP         Leans GOP         Barely GOP

Utah                 Alabama         South Carolina    Montana            Virginia
Wyoming          Kansas            Georgia             Tennessee          Florida
Idaho               Kentucky         Arizona              Indiana
Oklahoma         South Dakota                           Missouri
Nebraska          Texas                                      North Carolina
Alaska              Mississippi
North Dakota    Louisiana
                       Arkansas
                       West Virginia


Safe Dem         Solid Dem         Likely Dem       Leans Dem               Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland          Washington      Maine                       New Mexico
Hawaii              California          New Jersey      Michigan                   Nevada
Rhode Island    Connecticut                              Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                                 Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                                     Pennsylvania
New York                                                        Wisconsin  
                                                                      Iowa
                                                                      New Hampshire

                                               Toss Up
 
                                                 Ohio
                                               Colorado

Virginia = barely GOP...  after all the stuff you said in the other threads.  You're a lunatic.

[Non Swing Voter]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

I love it...

Barfag's next post: "Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years."

[old timey villain]

I can literally do very simple math to determine Florida's PVI in each election since 1964 (almost 50 years) to prove it has moved a lot

1964: -18
1968: -9 (just Nixon vs Humphrey)
1972: -21
1976: +3
1980: -7
1984: -12
1988: -15
1992: -7
1996: -3
2000: -0.5
2004: -3
2008: -4
2012: -3

Maybe it has remained stable since 2000 but dramatic shifts can happen here- like 72 to 76 or 88 to 92