Where do the states fall?

[Nichlemn]

Re: Where do the states fall?

RED: Republican (139)
LIGHT RED: Lean Republican (52)
YELLOW: Bellwether/Battleground/Competitive (84)
LIGHT BLUE: Lean Democratic (21)
BLUE: Democratic (242)

Those with "Leans" may become flipped by the opposing party's prevailing candidate if a national margin of victory were to be strong enough to pull in ones with such opposing tilt. In an election won the party with that tilt…the state will carry.

This map is partly assuming that both parties will continue their stupid "competitive" campaigns of only focusing on perceived "battlegrounds." Since after the 1980s, the most states won a given presidential election were the 32 carried with first election, in 1992, by Bill Clinton.

Note: On the prevailing side, since the 1990s, Republicans have averaged 9 electoral votes (for George W. Bush) with all states carried; Democrats have averaged 11 (Clinton) and 13 and 12 (Barack Obama) electoral votes with all states carried. On the losing side, Republicans averaged 9 (George Bush), 8 (Bob Dole and Mitt Romney), and 7 (John McCain) electoral votes with all states carried; Democrats averaged 13 electoral votes (Al Gore and John Kerry) with all states carried.

lol @ your ridiculous emphasis on the binary outcomes of a few Presidential races. There's no other way to call PA "Democratic" but Indiana only "Leans Republican" when PA is consistently only point or two more Democratic than the national average but Indiana significantly more Republican, other than to cherrypick 1992 as a starting date and conclude the Democrats' strength since then represents somewhat more than noise.

Translation of Nichlemn's post:

Yeah well, even though Pennsylvania has been more consistently Democratic in the last several elections than Indiana has been consistently Republican, that shouldn't be reflected in the map because, well, you know...

Except... it hasn't in any other way other than narrowly voting for Obama in 08.
Even considering that Democrats have done better nationally than Republicans since 1992, Republicans have still won IN by a larger average margin than Democrats have won PA. It's silly to put so much attention on one data point, especially a binary win/loss.

Not to mention that this sort of analysis would have consistently failed in retrospect. 2008, 1992, 1984, 1980, 1972, 1964, 1952, 1932... all of which would have poorly or woefully predicted by a "who won what states recently" approach. You can't explain them away as being "exceptions" or "realignments", they occur too often. If DS0816's analysis has any predictive power, he should be able to show the correlation it has had in the past. But he won't, because it's very weak.

[barfbag]

Yes Indiana will become light red again. ^

[PolitiJunkie]

I usually just like using Safe, Likely, and Lean. I think using too many categories kind of blurs the message. But here's the map I'd make if I were using Safe, Solid, Likely, Lean, and Tilt (I tried to make an atlas map but with so many categories, it was hard to distinguish between the shading).

Safe D                     Solid D                    Likely D                  Lean D               Tilt D

Washington DC       New Jersey            Maine Statewide       ME-02                 Pennsylvania
Hawaii                    Connecticut           Oregon                     Nevada                Wisconsin
Vermont                 Illinois                   New Mexico              Michigan              New Hampshire
New York                Washington                                          Minnesota
Rhode Island           ME-01
Maryland
Massachusetts
California
Delaware

Pure Toss-Up

Virginia
Colorado
Ohio
Iowa

Tilt R                      Lean R                Likely R                Solid R                           Safe R

Florida                     Georgia              NE-02                  Texas                            Utah
North Carolina         Arizona               Indiana                Alaska                           Wyoming
                              Missouri               Montana              South Carolina              Oklahoma
                                                                                    NE-01                           Idaho
                                                                                    Mississippi                      Nebraska Statewide
                                                                                    Louisiana                       NE-03
                                                                                    North Dakota                 Alabama
                                                                                    South Dakota                 Kansas
                                                                                    West Virginia
                                                                                    Arkansas
                                                                                    Kentucky
                                                                                    Tennessee

The more interesting conversation is what will change over the next decade or two. My take is that Virginia and Colorado will shift left from pure toss-up to Tilt/Lean D. Florida and North Carolina will shift left to pure toss-up, while Pennsylvania will shift right to pure toss-up. Without Hillary or other regional favorites on the ballot, most of the Solid R states will shift right to Safe R: Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, and the Dakotas. Mississippi, South Carolina, and Louisiana will shift slightly left to Likely R, whereas Alaska and Texas will shift a bit more left, eventually landing at Lean R and Tilt R respectively. I don't think Indiana, Montana, or Missouri will move much, remaining as Likely R, Likely R, and Lean R respectively, but Georgia and Arizona will, becoming Tilt R for a while and eventually pure toss-up. New Hampshire will gradually shift leftward from column to column, flirting with Lean D for a while, but eventually shoring up the Democratic coalition with social liberals in the Northeast as Likely or Solid D. Wisconsin will probably remain in Tilt D, but Minnesota and Michigan will shift rightward to join it in Tilt D, whereas Nevada and New Mexico will shift leftward to end up in Likely/Solid D. Oregon and Maine will also shift leftward a bit to cozy up with the likes of Connecticut and Washington in Solid D. Illinois will shift rightward a bit, out of Solid D into Likely/Lean D. Of course, all of this is barring a massive realignment, in which case everything I just said is irrelevant.

So based on that paragraph, here is the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

And also based on that paragraph (and this is a bit less accurate/important), here is the map of whether states are shifting just a little bit/one category (lightly shaded), or substantially/2+ categories (darkly shaded):

Don't read too much into the second map though.

[DS0816]

Except... [Indiana] hasn't in any other way other than narrowly voting for Obama in 08.
Even considering that Democrats have done better nationally than Republicans since 1992, Republicans have still won IN by a larger average margin than Democrats have won PA. It's silly to put so much attention on one data point, especially a binary win/loss.

And, yet, you just did that with the previous sentence, "Republicans have still won IN by a larger average margin than Democrats have won PA."

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What?

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You did attempt to explain away 2008 Indiana as an "exception."

AND…

Realigning presidential elections do not "occur too often."

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I am not concerned about "predictive power," Nichelmn. This thread's OP asked a question, and I answered it.

Does "predictive power" mean for you, Nichlemn, that you will be taking everything you have absorbed here and nest at your computer for each of the next 40 years—anxiously anticipating and awaiting the U.S. presidential election outcomes for 2016, 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048, and 2052? And will you be taking those results and return here to find out who best showed "predictive power"?

I laugh at your emotional responses.


Keep yourself better disciplined with giving a person a chance to respond before assuming whether that individual would be willing. (I may have more to say. Later.)

[Nichlemn]

Except... [Indiana] hasn't in any other way other than narrowly voting for Obama in 08.
Even considering that Democrats have done better nationally than Republicans since 1992, Republicans have still won IN by a larger average margin than Democrats have won PA. It's silly to put so much attention on one data point, especially a binary win/loss.

And, yet, you just did that with the previous sentence, "Republicans have still won IN by a larger average margin than Democrats have won PA."

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You did attempt to explain away 2008 Indiana as an "exception."

AND…

Realigning presidential elections do not "occur too often."

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I am not concerned about "predictive power," Nichelmn. This thread's OP asked a question, and I answered it.

Does "predictive power" mean for you, Nichlemn, that you will be taking everything you have absorbed here and nest at your computer for each of the next 40 years—anxiously anticipating and awaiting the U.S. presidential election outcomes for 2016, 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048, and 2052? And will you be taking those results and return here to find out who best showed "predictive power"?

I laugh at your emotional responses.


Keep yourself better disciplined with giving a person a chance to respond before assuming whether that individual would be willing. (I may have more to say. Later.)

Of course "predictive power" matters. You've ranked the states and giving them ratings as a projection of how you think future Presidential elections will turn out. If your ratings have no predictive power then they're pretty stupid.

If you're coming up with some kind of model or prediction, it should at the very least have been able to do significantly better than chance when applied retrospectively. It's not meaningless that Obama won Indiana, but it should be considered in light of all other information. If you're going to say that Obama winning Indiana is a really important data point, outweighing all the other data that point to PA being more competitive, then you should be able to point to evidence that the numbers of wins notched up by a party in recent years is significant.

I could come up with hard evidence that it's not as significant as other factors, but that'd be time consuming, so let's just try some intuition first. When predicting how say, RI or MA would vote in 1988, do you think it was more important that they each voted Republican in 2 of the previous 4 elections, or that they had consistently voted considerably more Democratic than the country as a whole for decades prior?

If you still don't get it, I recommend this post, this Nate Silver post, Nate Silver's book, and indeed just about every one of his theoretical blog posts. Over time, you should develop a better sense of what makes for superficial data and models.

[barfbag]

I was more getting at the recent elections rather than polling or trends. There will come a day when these categories don't apply to some of the states anymore. However, there's nothing better to analyze than real votes.

[opebo]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

[PolitiJunkie]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

I agree with MI but I have no idea about MN. I also think that MS won't see much of a D trend other than slight changes in the makeup of the electorate.

[PolitiJunkie]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

I agree with MI but I have no idea about MN. I also think that MS won't see much of a D trend other than slight changes in the makeup of the electorate.

I messed up Louisiana by the way; I see it going slowly and slightly left with Mississippi.

[barfbag]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

I agree with MI but I have no idea about MN. I also think that MS won't see much of a D trend other than slight changes in the makeup of the electorate.

So PA is further to the left than MS is to the right?

[opebo]

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

Ah, ok, so no huge threat.

[PolitiJunkie]

the map of whether states are shifting to the left (red), right (blue), or staying mostly static (grey):

Nice work, though I remain a little bit sceptical we'll see much of a rightward shift in MI-MN-PA or in IL.

I think MI and MN will make it to where Wisconsin is now.

I agree with MI but I have no idea about MN. I also think that MS won't see much of a D trend other than slight changes in the makeup of the electorate.

So PA is further to the left than MS is to the right?

Where in the WORLD did I imply that? MS is further right than PA is left. I'm predicting MS will move a bit to the left, and PA will move a bit to the right. MS will remain further right than PA is left.

[CnstutnlCnsrvatv]

INA  AWORLLD WHERE THERE WASNT THE VOTER FRAUDS< AND WHERE ELECTIONS WERE DECIDED BY TAHE VOTERS RATHER THAN MOTORCYCLE GANGS INTRIMIDATING GOD-FEARING CONSERVATIVES AT TEH POLLS, AND BROWN ONES BEING BUSSED IN FROM SOUTH SIDE & QUEENS TO ALL THE STATES TO CHANGE THE VOTE!!!

Safe R: Georgia       Texas               Utah  North Carolina         Arizona               Indiana                Alaska                           Wyoming
                              Missouri               Montana              South Carolina              Oklahoma
                                                                                                            Idaho
                                                                                    Mississippi                      Nebraska
                                                                                    Louisiana                 
                                                                                    North Dakota                 Alabama
                                                                                    South Dakota                 Kansas
                                                                                    West Virginia
                                                                                    Arkansas
                                                                                    Kentucky
                                                                                    Tennessee

Likely R: Floriada, Iowa, Ohiom, Colorado, Virginia

Lean R: PAenslyvania, WI, NH,

Toss-Up : Nevad,a Micihgan, maine, minnesota, oregon, new mexico, new jersey, washington, connecticut

Lean Democrap: Illinois, Delawae,' hode island,

Likely D: DC, hawaii, enw york, maryland, califronia, machusets

safe D: Vermont

[Gass3268]

INA  AWORLLD WHERE THERE WASNT THE VOTER FRAUDS< AND WHERE ELECTIONS WERE DECIDED BY TAHE VOTERS RATHER THAN MOTORCYCLE GANGS INTRIMIDATING GOD-FEARING CONSERVATIVES AT TEH POLLS, AND BROWN ONES BEING BUSSED IN FROM SOUTH SIDE & QUEENS TO ALL THE STATES TO CHANGE THE VOTE!!!

Safe R: Georgia       Texas               Utah  North Carolina         Arizona               Indiana                Alaska                           Wyoming
                              Missouri               Montana              South Carolina              Oklahoma
                                                                                                            Idaho
                                                                                    Mississippi                      Nebraska
                                                                                    Louisiana                 
                                                                                    North Dakota                 Alabama
                                                                                    South Dakota                 Kansas
                                                                                    West Virginia
                                                                                    Arkansas
                                                                                    Kentucky
                                                                                    Tennessee

Likely R: Floriada, Iowa, Ohiom, Colorado, Virginia

Lean R: PAenslyvania, WI, NH,

Toss-Up : Nevad,a Micihgan, maine, minnesota, oregon, new mexico, new jersey, washington, connecticut

Lean Democrap: Illinois, Delawae,' hode island,

Likely D: DC, hawaii, enw york, maryland, califronia, machusets

safe D: Vermont

trolololololololol

[PolitiJunkie]

INA  AWORLLD WHERE THERE WASNT THE VOTER FRAUDS< AND WHERE ELECTIONS WERE DECIDED BY TAHE VOTERS RATHER THAN MOTORCYCLE GANGS INTRIMIDATING GOD-FEARING CONSERVATIVES AT TEH POLLS, AND BROWN ONES BEING BUSSED IN FROM SOUTH SIDE & QUEENS TO ALL THE STATES TO CHANGE THE VOTE!!!

Safe R: Georgia       Texas               Utah  North Carolina         Arizona               Indiana                Alaska                           Wyoming
                              Missouri               Montana              South Carolina              Oklahoma
                                                                                                            Idaho
                                                                                    Mississippi                      Nebraska
                                                                                    Louisiana                 
                                                                                    North Dakota                 Alabama
                                                                                    South Dakota                 Kansas
                                                                                    West Virginia
                                                                                    Arkansas
                                                                                    Kentucky
                                                                                    Tennessee

Likely R: Floriada, Iowa, Ohiom, Colorado, Virginia

Lean R: PAenslyvania, WI, NH,

Toss-Up : Nevad,a Micihgan, maine, minnesota, oregon, new mexico, new jersey, washington, connecticut

Lean Democrap: Illinois, Delawae,' hode island,

Likely D: DC, hawaii, enw york, maryland, califronia, machusets

safe D: Vermont

I tried to go through and bold the funniest parts, but it ended up being that only like 10 states were non-bolded.

[barfbag]

INA  AWORLLD WHERE THERE WASNT THE VOTER FRAUDS< AND WHERE ELECTIONS WERE DECIDED BY TAHE VOTERS RATHER THAN MOTORCYCLE GANGS INTRIMIDATING GOD-FEARING CONSERVATIVES AT TEH POLLS, AND BROWN ONES BEING BUSSED IN FROM SOUTH SIDE & QUEENS TO ALL THE STATES TO CHANGE THE VOTE!!!

Safe R: Georgia       Texas               Utah  North Carolina         Arizona               Indiana                Alaska                           Wyoming
                              Missouri               Montana              South Carolina              Oklahoma
                                                                                                            Idaho
                                                                                    Mississippi                      Nebraska
                                                                                    Louisiana                 
                                                                                    North Dakota                 Alabama
                                                                                    South Dakota                 Kansas
                                                                                    West Virginia
                                                                                    Arkansas
                                                                                    Kentucky
                                                                                    Tennessee

Likely R: Floriada, Iowa, Ohiom, Colorado, Virginia

Lean R: PAenslyvania, WI, NH,

Toss-Up : Nevad,a Micihgan, maine, minnesota, oregon, new mexico, new jersey, washington, connecticut

Lean Democrap: Illinois, Delawae,' hode island,

Likely D: DC, hawaii, enw york, maryland, califronia, machusets

safe D: Vermont

I tried to go through and bold the funniest parts, but it ended up being that only like 10 states were non-bolded.

I've adjusted the categories for me.

Safe GOP      Solid GOP         Likely GOP         Leans GOP     Barely GOP

Utah             North Dakota    Louisiana           Montana        Missouri 
Wyoming      Kansas             West Virginia      Tennessee     North Carolina
Idaho           Alabama           Arkansas                                Indiana
Oklahoma     Kentucky          South Carolina
Nebraska      Mississippi        Georgia
Alaska          Texas               Arizona
                   South Dakota

Safe Dem         Solid Dem      Likely Dem    Leans Dem       Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland       Washington    Maine              New Mexico
Hawaii              California                           Michigan          New Hampshire
Rhode Island    Connecticut                        Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                           Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                              Wisconsin
New York          New Jersey                        Pennsylvania
                                                                Iowa


                                                        Toss Up

                                                        Virginia
                                                        Florida
                                                        Ohio
                                                        Colorado
                                                        Nevada

[ElectionsGuy]

INA  AWORLLD WHERE THERE WASNT THE VOTER FRAUDS< AND WHERE ELECTIONS WERE DECIDED BY TAHE VOTERS RATHER THAN MOTORCYCLE GANGS INTRIMIDATING GOD-FEARING CONSERVATIVES AT TEH POLLS, AND BROWN ONES BEING BUSSED IN FROM SOUTH SIDE & QUEENS TO ALL THE STATES TO CHANGE THE VOTE!!!

Safe R: Georgia       Texas               Utah  North Carolina         Arizona               Indiana                Alaska                           Wyoming
                              Missouri               Montana              South Carolina              Oklahoma
                                                                                                            Idaho
                                                                                    Mississippi                      Nebraska
                                                                                    Louisiana                 
                                                                                    North Dakota                 Alabama
                                                                                    South Dakota                 Kansas
                                                                                    West Virginia
                                                                                    Arkansas
                                                                                    Kentucky
                                                                                    Tennessee

Likely R: Floriada, Iowa, Ohiom, Colorado, Virginia

Lean R: PAenslyvania, WI, NH,

Toss-Up : Nevad,a Micihgan, maine, minnesota, oregon, new mexico, new jersey, washington, connecticut

Lean Democrap: Illinois, Delawae,' hode island,

Likely D: DC, hawaii, enw york, maryland, califronia, machusets

safe D: Vermont

Rhode Island "Lean D"
DC "Likely D"
New Jersey "Toss-Up"
Wisconsin "Lean R"
Iowa "Likely R"
North Carolina "Safe R"

lol.

[opebo]

I've adjusted the categories for me.

Safe GOP      Solid GOP         Likely GOP         Leans GOP     Barely GOP

Utah             North Dakota    Louisiana           Montana        Missouri 
Wyoming      Kansas             West Virginia      Tennessee     North Carolina
Idaho           Alabama           Arkansas                                Indiana
Oklahoma     Kentucky          South Carolina
Nebraska      Mississippi        Georgia
Alaska          Texas               Arizona
                   South Dakota

Safe Dem         Solid Dem      Likely Dem    Leans Dem       Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland       Washington    Maine              New Mexico
Hawaii              California                           Michigan          New Hampshire
Rhode Island    Connecticut                        Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                           Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                              Wisconsin
New York          New Jersey                        Pennsylvania
                                                                Iowa


                                                        Toss Up

                                                        Virginia
                                                        Florida
                                                        Ohio
                                                        Colorado
                                                        Nevada

I agree, except as I've added color: move each one category as indicated and you have my best guess.

[barfbag]

I've adjusted the categories for me.

Safe GOP      Solid GOP         Likely GOP         Leans GOP     Barely GOP

Utah             North Dakota    Louisiana           Montana        Missouri 
Wyoming      Kansas             West Virginia      Tennessee     North Carolina
Idaho           Alabama           Arkansas                                Indiana
Oklahoma     Kentucky          South Carolina
Nebraska      Mississippi        Georgia
Alaska          Texas               Arizona
                   South Dakota

Safe Dem         Solid Dem      Likely Dem    Leans Dem       Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland       Washington    Maine              New Mexico
Hawaii              California                           Michigan          New Hampshire
Rhode Island    Connecticut                        Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                           Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                              Wisconsin
New York          New Jersey                        Pennsylvania
                                                                Iowa


                                                        Toss Up

                                                        Virginia
                                                        Florida
                                                        Ohio
                                                        Colorado
                                                        Nevada

I agree, except as I've added color: move each one category as indicated and you have my best guess.

You're saying I moved them too close to the middle.

[opebo]

I've adjusted the categories for me.

Safe GOP      Solid GOP         Likely GOP         Leans GOP     Barely GOP

Utah             North Dakota    Louisiana           Montana        Missouri 
Wyoming      Kansas             West Virginia      Tennessee     North Carolina
Idaho           Alabama           Arkansas                                Indiana
Oklahoma     Kentucky          South Carolina
Nebraska      Mississippi        Georgia
Alaska          Texas               Arizona
                   South Dakota

Safe Dem         Solid Dem      Likely Dem    Leans Dem       Barely Dem

D.C.                 Maryland       Washington    Maine              New Mexico
Hawaii              California                           Michigan          New Hampshire
Rhode Island    Connecticut                        Oregon
Vermont           Delaware                           Minnesota
Massachusetts   Illinois                              Wisconsin
New York          New Jersey                        Pennsylvania
                                                                Iowa


                                                        Toss Up

                                                        Virginia
                                                        Florida
                                                        Ohio
                                                        Colorado
                                                        Nevada

I agree, except as I've added color: move each one category as indicated and you have my best guess.

You're saying I moved them too close to the middle.

Yeah I would have classified them as leaning harder in their respective directions.  Your analysis is quite cautious.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I just tried to rank the states and then divide them, so that the electoral votes have a ratio of 2:1:1:2.



Solid Republican - 175 EV
Lean Republican - 98 EV
Lean Democratic - 86 EV
Solid Democratic - 179 EV

Pennsylvania is the bubble state.

This could very well be the future of categories. It's exciting to wait and see.

This will not very well be the future of categories. By the time Pennsylvania and Ohio have become Lean R, North Carolina and Florida will be as Democratic as Virginia is now, and Georgia and Arizona will be toss-ups leaning D. All he was doing was trying to get a map where there was a 2:1:1:2 ratio.

Not a chance Florida moves left of center. It's pretty much the same center right state it's been for 50 years. It's light red when Republicans win and toss up when Democrats win. Arizona and Georgia are also the same as where they were 20 years ago. There are demographic changes which could shake things up but the other side of the argument is that Georgia has never been that far to the right and a one freaking point trend shouldn't be enough to make the left giddy. We've seen potential in Arizona for a long time and it's never happened. It's always "just a couple elections away." North Carolina should become a toss up before too long and Virginia will become purplish blue to light blue.

Florida has definitely not stayed the same over the past 50 years. It went from strong D as part of the solid south to very strong R up until 1988 (with the exception of 1976) , then lean R in the 90s, then totally even in 2000 and since then it's been slightly lean R.

A state that will continue to grow and evolve as much as Florida will definitely see changes in its partisan make up in the future.

Florida's growth in the non-Cuban Hispanic population has pushed it toward the Democrats.  Florida's Cuban vote has also shifted toward the Democrats; younger Cubans do not have the hard anti-Castro Republican views that their parents and grandparents have had, at least not to the point where it manifests itself in strong GOP partisanship.

The GOP has managed to offend Latinos of all stripes with it's anti-immigrant posturing to the point where they are closed-minded toward the GOP.  This is despite a degree of cultural conservatism and stronger than average family values amongst most Hispanic groups.  It's certainly not wrong to consider illegal immigration a problem and to proactively deal with it, but the GOP has gone about it in such a ham-handedly offensive way as to offend voters that they need.  Latino voters offered the GOP a chance to avoid the "Old White Guy Party" label.  This is something the Bushes get right.  The offense caused by not just the Tancredos, but the Mitt Romneys (Self-Deporation?) have caused damage amongst Hispanic voters who might otherwise lean Republican that will take at least a decade to begin to reverse.