Predicting the 2016 ranking of states based on 9 political & demographic factors

[eric82oslo]

I've looked at 9 different political, partisan, religious and demographic factors and ranked each of the 50 states + D.C. accordingly from 1 to 51 on each of the 9 different rankings. Once done, I added all numbers together and made a final ranking of the likelihood of each state being strongly/lean Democratic, true battleground or strongly/lean Republican. 7 of the 9 different surveys I got from Gallup, while one is based on the 2010 US Census.

These are the 9 different factors I've analyzed:

1. The outcome of the 2012 presidential election
2. Obama approval (2012)
3. Obama disapproval (2012)
4. % Non-religious (2012)
5. % Very religious (2012)
6. % Non-white (2010 Census)
7. Self-reporting LGBT population (fall 2012)
8. Partisan lean (Democratic-Republican, 2012)
9. Ideological lean (Conservative-liberal, 2012)

Once added together, I got this ranking of states, which probably will be pretty close to the final outcome of the 2016 election, I believe (going from most Democratic to most Republican):

1. Washington D.C. - 23 points (topped 6 of 9 rankings)
2. Hawaii - 41 points (topped 1 ranking)
3. Rhode Island - 69 points
4. Massachusetts - 76 points
5. New York - 78 points
6. Vermont - 79 points (topped 2 rankings, the religious ones, but almost no minorities)
7. California - 96 points
8. Connecticut - 112 points
9. Washington - 115 points
10. New Jersey - 118 points
11. Maryland - 120 points (fairly religious & few LGBT)
12. Oregon - 125 points
13. Delaware - 133 points
14. Illinois & Maine - 140 points
16. Nevada - 163 points
17. Michigan - 165 points
18. New Hampshire - 190 points
19. Florida - 194 points
20. New Mexico - 201 points
21. Minnesota - 204 points
22. Arizona - 215 points

23. Colorado - 217 points
24. Wisconsin - 225 points (#24 was the tipping point state in 2012)
25. Ohio - 228 points (#25 was the closest state to the popular vote in 2012)

26. Pennsylvania - 239 points (median)
27. Iowa - 255 points (#27 was the closest state in the voting count in 2012)
28. Virginia - 256 points
29. North Carolina - 267 points
30. Alaska - 276 points
31. Georgia - 283 points
32. Texas - 284 points
33. Indiana - 296 points
34. Missouri - 302 points
35. South Dakota - 309 points
36. Kentucky - 314 points
37. Louisiana - 324 points
38. Kansas - 328 points
39. Montana - 332 points
40. South Carolina - 333 points
41. Arkansas - 346 points
42. Mississippi - 347 points
43. Oklahoma - 355 points
44. Wyoming - 356 points (very non-religious)
45. West Virginia - 361 points
46. Tennessee - 364 points
47. Nebraska - 366 points
48. Idaho - 379 points
49. Alabama - 390 points
50. North Dakota - 392 points
51. Utah - 419 points


In bold I've highlighted 3 states which all seem, according to these 9 political and demographic factors at least, to be heading rapidly in Democratic direction.


That gives us this map (relative to the expected popular vote):

Three states are marked as toss-up: Colorado (though slightly leaning Democratic), Wisconsin and Ohio.

Without these three states, Democrats will gain 267 EVs against Republicans 234 EVs, with 37 EVs in the toss-up column.

In a less certain world, we would normally put Arizona and Pennsylvania as true toss-up states as well. So we could just as well go ahead and do that.

That's all I have for now. Do you think these predictions could be fairly reasonable come 2016? Any state you think is far off?

Most stats are taken from this Gallup page/database: http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx?ref=interactive

[eric82oslo]

Here are some stats on Florida, Arizona & Texas, the three states which seem to be heading the fastest in the Democratic direction (North Dakota seems to be the one going the fastest in the opposite direction).

Florida

2012 election: #27 (+0.9%, slightly below national average)
Obama approval: #19 (48.1%, same as national average)
Obama disapproval: #18 (44.6%, below national average)
% Non-religious: #30 (30.7%, same as national average)
% Very religious: #24 (37.6%, below national average)
% Non-white: #10 (42.1%, above national average)
Self-reporting LGBT: #22 (3.5%, same as national average)
Partisan lean: #21 (+4.5% Democratic, slightly above national average)
Ideological lean: #23 (+17.2% conservative, slightly above national average)

Almost all figures suggest that Florida is in for a Democratic tilt in the coming years. Only two stats are slightly less convincing: The fact that Florida does not have more nonreligious citizens than the nation as a whole (but neither fewer), plus the fact that a slightly higher percentage of Floridians consider themselves conservative than the nation as a whole (but just barely, the difference is not huge). It's interesting how well-liked Obama is in Florida, and how more voters consider themselves Democratic in Florida than nation-wide.

Arizona

2012 election: #30 (-9.1%, far below national average)
Obama approval: #31 (44.3%, below national average)
Obama disapproval: #31 (48.3%, somewhat above national average)
% Non-religious: #21 (33.9%, above national average)
% Very religious: #21 (36.6%, below national average)
% Non-white: #9 (42.2%, above national average)
Self-reporting LGBT: #12 (3.9%, above national average)
Partisan lean: #33 (-3.5% Democratic, below national average)
Ideological lean: #27 (+19.5% conservative, above national average)

Except for the partisan lean and the Obama disapproval, all the other numbers suggest that Arizona will gradually become a more moderate, independent state. It's fairly non-religious (more so than the nation), very gay (and supposedly openminded) and very diverse.

Texas

2012 election: #37 (-15.8%, far below national average)
Obama approval: #33 (44%, below national average)
Obama disapproval: #24 (46.6%, same as national average)
% Non-religious: #43 (21.5%, far below national average)
% Very religious: #41 (47%, above national average)
% Non-white: #5 (54.7%, far above national average)
Self-reporting LGBT: #30 (3.3%, slightly below national average)
Partisan lean: #36 (-4.5 Democratic, below national average)
Ideological lean: #35 (+23.2% conservative, considerably above national average)

The Obama approval/disapproval rating together with the increasingly non-white population suggest that Texas is heading in a less partisan, more moderate direction. However, it's still one of the most religious states.

[eric82oslo]

If this map/ranking would become the official one in 2016, these states would move the furthest number of places up and down (since 2012):

+9 Democratic: Kentucky
+8 Florida
+8 Arizona
+6 Alaska
+6 Oklahoma
+6 Wyoming
+5 Washington
+5 Texas
+5 Arkansas
+4 Nevada
+4 New Hampshire
+4 South Dakota
+4 Kansas
+3 Massachusetts
+3 Connecticut
+3 Oregon
+2 Rhode Island
+2 West Virginia
+1 California
+1 Colorado
+1 Ohio
+1 Louisiana

No change: Washington D.C., Hawaii, New Jersey, Michigan, Idaho, Utah

-1 New York (though with Hillary I'm sure it would not fall, this is all generic after all)
-1 North Carolina
-1 Indiana
-2 Illinois
-2 Maine
-2 Georgia
-3 Vermont
-3 Minnesota
-3 Pennsylvania
-3 Virginia
-3 Missouri
-4 Delaware
-4 New Mexico
-4 Montana
-4 Nebraska
-5 Maryland
-5 Wisconsin
-5 Tennessee
-5 Alabama
-6 Iowa
-7 South Carolina
-8 Mississippi
-10 Republican: North Dakota

The most affected states would be North Dakota and Kentucky in other words. Also seriously affected would be Florida, Arizona and Mississippi. Other states with big movement would be South Carolina, Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma and Wyoming. Then Wahington, Texas, Arkansas, Maryland, Wisconsin, Tennessee and Alabama.

Ohio would be the Virginia of 2012 (& 2008), while Wisconsin would be the Colorado of 2012.

If my assertation is right, the states would move according to this Trend Map (keep in mind that these are relative trends and not absolute trends, meaning that a state (like New York) could still become more Democratic even though Rhode Island and/or Massachusetts would pass it on the partisan ranking of states):

Looks like most of the West would be trending Democratic, while most of the East (both south, northeast and midwest) would trend Republican, with a few huge exceptions of course, like Florida.

[eric82oslo]

Another way to read this ranking is that Democrats will have 21 certain states in 2016, Republicans will have 23 certain states, while the remaining 7 states will be too close to call, true toss-up states that will be targeted extensively by both campaigns (or at the very least by one of them):

The seven 2016 battleground states might thus be in alphabetical order: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Once again Democrats will have the lead going in to the contest. Democrats will be secured of 256 EVs (on a generic ticket, thus excluding the possibility that Christie will steal New Jersey away from the safe corner, or Bush steal Florida away), while Republicans will start off with 195 EVs. The 7 battleground states will altogether represent 87 EVs.

[eric82oslo]

7. Self-reporting LGBT population (fall 2012)

I've had to adjust my LGBT ranking for the states after I came across the official 2010 Census numbers on the number of same sex households in each state, percentagewise, today: http://www.census.gov/hhes/samesex/files/ss-figures-and-maps.pdf

Now I'm using an average of the Gallup 2012 survey self-reporting numbers (more than 200,000 polled nationwide) and the 2010 Census numbers (including close to a million LGBT households nationwide).

Thus this is the estimated ranking of the highest percentage of LGBT population and same sex households in the US as of 2010/12:

1. Washington D.C.
2. Vermont
3. Oregon
4. Massachusetts
5. Hawaii
6. Maine
7. California
8. Rhode Island
9. Nevada
10. Washington
11. New York
12. Arizona
13. New Hampshire
14. Delaware
15. Florida
16. New Jersey
17. Georgia
18. Kentucky
19. New Mexico
20. Illinois
21. Connecticut
22. Maryland
23. Texas
24. Colorado
25. North Carolina
26. Alaska
27. Indiana
28. Oklahoma
29. Louisiana
30. South Dakota (number 8 according to Gallup, 2nd last according to the Census)
31. Ohio
32. Michigan
33. West Virginia
34. Arkansas
35. Virginia
36. Kansas
37. Missouri
38. Minnesota
39. Pennsylvania
40. South Carolina
41. Utah
42. Wisconsin
43. Alabama
44. Tennessee
45. Wyoming
46. Mississippi
47. Iowa
48. Idaho
49. Nebraska
50. Montana
51. North Dakota

Btw, both Gallup and the Census had Washington D.C. (by a mile) on top and North Dakota (by far) bottom last, so at least they agreed on those two.

[eric82oslo]

These are the 9 different factors I've analyzed:

1. The outcome of the 2012 presidential election
2. Obama approval (2012)
3. Obama disapproval (2012)
4. % Non-religious (2012)
5. % Very religious (2012)
6. % Non-white (2010 Census)
7. Self-reporting LGBT population (fall 2012)
8. Partisan lean (Democratic-Republican, 2012)
9. Ideological lean (Conservative-liberal, 2012)

That gives us this updated ranking:

1. Washington D.C. - 23 points
2. Hawaii - 44 points
3. Rhode Island - 71 points
4. Massachusetts - 73 points
5. New York - 75 points
6. Vermont - 77 points
7. California - 93 points
8. Connecticut - 106 points
9. Maryland - 110 points
10. Washington - 114 points
11. New Jersey - 117 points
12. Delaware - 121 points
13. Oregon - 125 points
14. Maine - 141 points
15. Illinois - 145 points
16. Nevada - 163 points
17. Michigan - 181 points
18. New Mexico - 183 points
19. New Hampshire - 184 points
20. Florida - 187 points
21. Minnesota - 203 points
22. Colorado - 207 points

23. Arizona - 215 points
24. Wisconsin - 225 points
25. Pennsylvania - 234 points
26. Ohio - 238 points
27. Virginia - 255 points
28. Iowa - 259 points
29. North Carolina - 263 points

30. Alaska - 274 points
31. Georgia - 277 points
31. Texas - 277 points
33. Indiana - 287 points
34. Missouri - 296 points
35. Kentucky - 319 points
36. Louisiana - 320 points
37. South Dakota - 331 points
38. Montana - 332 points
39. South Carolina - 335 points
40. Kansas - 344 points
41. Mississippi - 345 points
42. Arkansas - 356 points
43. Oklahoma - 358 points
44. Tennessee - 359 points
44. West Virginia - 359 points
46. Wyoming - 361 points
47. Nebraska - 370 points
48. Idaho - 380 points
49. North Dakota - 392 points
49. Alabama - 392 points
51. Utah - 414 points


Which gives us this final (updated) map:

Safe Democratic (22 states): 265 EVs
Safe Republican (22 states): 180 EVs
Toss-up (7 states): 93 EVs

[SPC]

Just by analyzing the swing over the past 9 elections, the general tendency of states is to continue to vote the same way they did in the previous election, relative to the NPV, with a standard deviation of ~6.5%. Thus, here is a chart reflecting the probability of each state voting that way relative to the NPV:

[opebo]

Which gives us this final (updated) map:

Safe Democratic (22 states): 265 EVs
Safe Republican (22 states): 180 EVs
Toss-up (7 states): 93 EVs

That's a fine and nice map, but it isn't any different than what anybody could have come up with without all that dubious figurin'... except for Arizona, which is probably overly optimistic on your program's part anyway.

[barfbag]

It sounds like a very complicated way of ranking states but the data is interesting. Who a state votes for at the presidential level is the biggest indicator, but not everything to a state's politics. I rank the states based on a combination these factors.

taxes
corporate taxes
gun laws
do they have school vouchers
do they allow gambling
do they allow same sex marriage
do they allow marijuana or for medicinal purposes
do they have the death penalty
what are the smoking laws

From these factors we can analyze conservatism, liberalism, and libertarianism. While the data is informative, it doesn't give a clear indicator as to which states are the furthest to the left or right if that's what you want to do. Another one of my favorite ways is to add up the averages from the least amount of elections where the parties have won the same number of elections. This means either the past two or four elections depending on which term we're in.

[eric82oslo]

These are the 9 different factors I've analyzed:

1. The outcome of the 2012 presidential election
2. Obama approval (2012)
3. Obama disapproval (2012)
4. % Non-religious (2012)
5. % Very religious (2012)
6. % Non-white (2010 Census)
7. Self-reporting LGBT population (fall 2012)
8. Partisan lean (Democratic-Republican, 2012)
9. Ideological lean (Conservative-liberal, 2012)

I've added two more demographic and electoral factors to my analysis. The two most recent ones are these:

10. % with Bachelor's Degree (2007-2011)
11. Long term Electoral Trend (1972-2012)

With these two additions to the 9 previous ones, we get this reviewed ranking:

1. Washington D.C. - 54 points (no change from 2012)
2. Hawaii - 73 points (no change)
3. Vermont - 86 points (no change)
4. New York - 101 points (no change)
5. Massachusetts - 113 points (up 2 places)
6. California - 113 points (up 2)
7. Rhode Island - 119 point (down 2)
8. Connecticut - 125 points (up 3)
9. New Jersey - 126 points (up 1)
10. Maryland - 129 points (down 4)
11. Washington - 146 points (up 3)
12. Delaware - 151 points (down 3)
13. Oregon - 168 points (up 2)
14. Illinois - 176 points (down 2)
15. Maine - 189 points (down 2)
16. New Hampshire - 197 points (up 6)
17. Nevada - 210 points (up 3)

18. Colorado - 220 points (up 6)
19. New Mexico - 225 points (down 3)
20. Florida - 231 points (up 7)
21. Michigan - 237 points (down 4)
22. Arizona - 252 points (up 8 )
23. Minnesota - 268 points (down 5)
24. Virginia - 268 points (up 1)
25. Wisconsin - 288 points (down 6)
26. Pennylvania - 303 points (down 3)
27. North Carolina - 310 points (up 1)
28. Ohio - 313 points (down 2)
29. Alaska - 319 points (up 7)
30. Iowa - 321 points (down 9)
31. Georgia - 327 points (down 2)

32. Indiana - 344 points (no change)
33. Texas - 348 points (up 4)
34. Missouri - 375 points (down 3)
35. Montana - 389 points (no change)
36. Kansas - 393 points (up 6)
37. South Carolina - 398 points (down 4)
38. South Dakota - 404 points (up 1)
39. Nebraska - 409 points (up 4)
40. Louisiana - 413 points (down 2)
41. Kentucky - 416 points (up 4)
42. Mississippi - 419 points (down 8 )
43. Wyoming - 440 points (up 7)
44. Oklahoma - 442 points (up 5)
45. North Dakota - 445 points (down 5)
46. Idaho - 447 points (up 2)
47. Tennessee - 450 points (down 6)
48. Arkansas - 456 points (down 2)
49. West Virginia - 461 points (down 2)
50. Utah - 466 points (up 1)
51. Alabama - 485 points (down 7)


I'm kind and including as many as 14 battleground states this time. Though neither Georgia, Iowa, Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida nor Michigan look like the most natural tipping point states at this point. I think it's fascinating how "well" Alaska is doing. On the other side, that can explain why Alaska has tilted so very quickly from solidly Republican 10-15 years ago, to much less so in this last election. And Obama is an extremely bad fit for Alaska judging his approval ratings there, which are amongst the 4 worst of any state in the nation. Thus Alaska could potentially be much closer in a future election with a more fitting Democratic candidate, perhaps already with Hilary? Polls have shown her being surprisingly competitive there.

If my calculations are right, Alabama might indeed becoming even stronger territory for Republican candidates than Utah by 2020 or 2024, perhaps already in 2016 (although I doubt it can happen that fast due to the vast number of its Hispanic population possibly being illegal immigrants and turning out at fairly low numbers). The main reason why Alabama should be a better fit for Republicans than Utah, is because Utah has the 17th highest educated population of any state, while Alabama is in the bottom 5. On the other side of the coin though, Alabama is still much more diverse than Utah and those minorities vote at a very high level, so I believe we'll still have to wait another decade or so before  Alabama may start to challenge Utah for its bottom last position on the electoral ranking.

Do you guys agree with me/my ranking that New Hampshire and Nevada might no longer be considered as true battleground states in presidential elections? Although I suppose they might be just as close - perhaps even closer - than Georgia in the next election, a state I've included as battleground above. It just felt weird including Alaska as swing state yet not Georgia.

I just took a look at my document now and realized that Utah was only 6.6% more Republican than Alabama in 2008. So if Republicans start nominating non-Mormons again , blacks turnout in lower numbers again and the current demographic trends continue at high speed, I guess it wouldn't be impossible that Alabama might vote more conseratively than Utah by 2020 actually. Thoughts? By 2016 however, I still doubt it.