1974 'Notionals'

[afleitch]

I have decided as an act of penance for some horrible thing I must have done to calculate the October 1974 ‘Notional’ results for the 1983-1992 boundaries. This stemmed from a general curiosity as the new local government boundaries came into effect in 1974 in England and Wales and 1975 in Scotland (with locals held a year before) yet didn’t come into play at Westminster until nearly a decade and three general elections later. I chose Scotland to start, which was probably the most difficult part of the UK to do of course given how drastic the changes were. I used local election results and the method described in the BBC/ITN guide for the 1979 notionals. While the actual 1979 notionals had a few errors (as they were based on 1980 local results, not 1978 locals for example), on the whole they got the picture generally right, if not some of the majorities wrong (particularly in Tayside) I deviated from the method now and then, but only in rural seats with lots of independents and differing voting patterns. I looked at results in 1983 for personal voting patterns (which ironed out some of the problems in the 1979 notionals) and Scottish Election Survey results for second preferences. For example, on paper Bob Maclennan would have lost Caithness and Sutherland in 1974 but a significant number of voters transferred in from Ross-shire would probably have switched to him.

This has taken me two weeks. I hope to get the raw figures uploaded (there is some rounding so the figures deviate from the national total by a hundred voters or so which isn’t half bad) But for now here are the majorities.

SNP seats by majority (second placed party in parenthesis)

Livingston 0.7% (LAB)
East Kilbride 1.3% (LAB)
Stirling 2% (CON)
Perth 2.2% (CON)
Clackmannan 4.2% (LAB)
Argyll and Bute 4.9% (CON)
Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber 6.1% (LIB)
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth 6.2% (LAB)
Banff and Buchan 6.2% (CON)
Moray 7.7% (CON)
Angus 10.6% (CON)
Falkirk West 11.6% (LAB)
Dundee East 15.1% (SNP)
Western Isles 36.7% (LAB)

CON seats by majority (second placed party in parenthesis)

Renfrewshire West and Inverclyde 0.6% (LAB)
Aberdeen South 1.2% (LAB)
Kincardine and Deeside 1.6% (SNP)
Ross, Cromarty and Skye 2.5% (SNP)
Cunninghame North 4.3% (LAB)
Gordon 4.8% (SNP)
North Tayside 6% (SNP)
Edinburgh Central 6% (LAB)
Roxburgh and Berwick 6.1% (LIB)
Ayr 9.8% (LAB)
Edinburgh South 10.2% (LAB)
Strathkelvin and Bearsden 10.8% (LAB)
Edinburgh Pentlands 10.9% (LAB)
Edinburgh West 12.4% (LAB)
Glasgow Cathcart 13.8% (LAB)
North East Fife 14.8% (SNP)
Eastwood 16.6% (SNP)

LIB seats by majority (second placed party in parenthesis)

Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale 7.9% (CON)
Orkney and Shetland 39% (SNP)

LAB seats by majority (second placed party in parenthesis)

Glasgow Hillhead 1.6% (CON)
Clydesdale 2.4% (SNP)
Linlithgow 2.6% (SNP)
Dumbarton 4.3% (SNP)
Paisley South 4.4% (SNP)
Falkirk East 5% (SNP)
Dundee West 5.8% (SNP)
Central Fife 8.5% (SNP)
Dunfermline West 9.1% (SNP)
Kirkcaldy 9.3% (SNP)
Caithness and Sutherland 11.1% (SNP)
Motherwell North 12.3 (SNP)
Clydebank and Milngavie 12.6% (SNP)
Edinburgh Leith 13.6% (SNP)
Kilmarnock 15.5% (SNP)
Midlothian 16.2% (SNP)
Motherwell South 16.3% (SNP)
Hamilton 16.8% (SNP)
Edinburgh East 17.7% (CON)
Glasgow Rutherglen 19.7% (SNP)
Glasgow Garscadden 19.7% (SNP)
Glasgow Pollock 20.2% (SNP)
East Lothian 21.2% (CON)
Aberdeen North 21.5% (SNP)
Glasgow Govan 21.7% (SNP)
Glasgow Maryhill 21.7% (SNP)
Glasgow Shettleston 22.9% (SNP)
Cunninghame South 23.6% (SNP)
Monklands East 26.7% (SNP)
Paisley North 27.1% (SNP)
Greenock 27.6% (SNP)
Glasgow Provan 28.3% (SNP)
Monklands West 29.3% (CON)
Dunfermline East 31.4% (SNP)
Glasgow Springburn 31.5% (SNP)
Glasgow Central 31.9% (SNP)
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 36.8% (SNP)

On paper, the big winners are the SNP. With Blantyre kicked out of East Kilbride they take that seat. William Wolfe’s strong performance in West Lothian combined with the fragmentation of Midlothian into two seats gifts Livingstone to the SNP. The SNP top in Stirling and take the new seat of Cumbernauld and Kilsyth (Dumbartonshire East was a three way marginal) They also take Inverness from the Liberals (though it is possible that the personal vote here would be strong enough to keep the seat in their column) However, they would loose Galloway.

The Tories however do remarkably well winning all their 1979 notional seats except those won by the SNP and also taking Cunninghame North and Renfrewshire West which in 1979 would be notionally Labour. They loose Hillhead, just, to Labour though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Really interesting stuff; thanks.

[afleitch]

Still double checking the Scottish figures but for now, as a treat here be Wales. Figures are CON/LAB/LIB/PC/OTH

Aberavon   5085   24201   4573   3508    Alyn&D   11179   19737   5851   1155    BGwent   4465   31703   4691   3425    Brecon   12194   14325   6720   2037    Bridgend   11197   18976   5996   3145    Caernarfon   4349   11714   3732   14872    Caerphilly   5438   26647   4550   8323    CardC   13528   14878   7324   1538   17 CardN   18478   13528   7666   1583    CardS   12086   19488   1627   1108   56 CardW   13133   19951   5638   2104   2 Carmarthen   3103   19706   5479   24073   329 Ceredigion   6419   15052   18250   5805    ClwydNW   17874   11780   12367   3632   404 ClwydSW   11695   12721   9473   4230    Conwy   15614   12808   6344   4668    Cynon V   3115   25757   2888   8411   1028 Delyn   16357   15698   8987   1714    Gower   9998   22249   5240   3415    Islwyn   3637   26883   3439   3049    Llanelli   6000   29453   7087   6050   13 Merion   3558   7830   3995   9531    Merthyr   4114   31537   3071   6374   337 Monmouth   18008   14178   6817   624    Montgom   7421   5031   11280   2400    Neath   6556   26217   4670   7905    NewpE   11431   20282   6132   652    NewpW   13058   19895   6142   682    Ogmore   4723   25435   6458   2867    Pembroke   20046   19568   5478   1358    Pontypridd   8953   23303   5560   3763    Rhondda   3739   38654   2142   4173   1404 SwanE   5698   24985   5339   4115 SwanW   13953   20251   6068   1921 Torfaen   6821   25676   6083   2201 ValeG   15955   17420   7324   1728 Wrexham   10294   20145   9326   1732 Yns Mon   7975   13947   5182   6410

[afleitch]

I'm doing a quick run through of England and I'm more interested in seat tally's than numbers at this stage. I've done the South West and South East regions. The Tories are racking up the extra rural seats as expected but there are other gains. The Liberals look as if they should pick up Newbury and Labour pick up the new seats of Milton Keynes and Crawley but loose Portsmouth North to the Tories.

[afleitch]

So England is fun. I did Lancashire (post '74) as a test. Fairly desolate for Labour actually with them winning 5 seats to the Tories 11; Lancashire West, Preston, Blackburn, Hyndburn and Burnley. The Tories win Pendle and Chorley by less than 1% however.