Italian Election Series - 1995 General Elections

[Antonio the Sixth]

Important Note: Since the outcome of the consultative referendum on electoral reform isn't yet known, you guys will have to vote without knowing for sure what electoral system will be in place. All my apologies for this inconvenience. I will specify by the end of this write-up the "coalitions" that have been formed. Depending on the electoral system, these coalitions would be official or unofficial. You are free to vote based on your own assumptions. And by the way: don't forget to vote in the FINAL ROUND of the consultative referendum!!!

The Thirteenth Legislature which began in 1990 proved to be one of the most tumultuous in the country's history. Soon after its first meeting, Claudio Martelli had managed to renew its leadership over the government. The coalition was extended to the PDP, the big winner of the election, which entered in the government (notably, Orlando became minister of Justice). In February 1991, the PCI achieved its transformation process and became the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS). The minority of the party which disapproved of that turn left and formed the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC), which went to opposition. Despite this split, the new Martelli government enjoyed a majority even without the Greens' support. Its agenda was still dominated by fiscal and criminal issues. Regarding the former, concern started mounting over the ballooning public debt, which went from 100% to 120% between 1990 and 1992. In order to be admitted in the newly founded European Monetary System, Italy had to conform to the criteria set by the Maastricht Treaty. The 1992 budget contained the first emergency austerity measures, notably cuts to retirement pensions and various tax hikes, which PDS begrudgingly accepted to support. Meanwhile, the fight against mafia started to produce tangible results, with a growing number of arrests and guilt sentences, but also a growing death count. The assassination of top antimafia judges Giovanni Falcone and Paolo Borsellino, in the summer of 1992, shocked the entire country.

It was for different reasons, however, that the year 1992 became a turning point in the history of the country. A judicial inquiry opened in February of that year against Mario Chiesa, a minor PSI politician, soon began exposing widespread corruption within the "established" parties (notably PSI, PDP and PLI, and to a lesser extent PDS). The scandal, soon nicknamed Tangentopoli ("Bribe City") took proportions never seen before, directly involving the country's most prominent political leaders. PSI leader Bettino was the subject of the most damaging revelations, putting the government in serious difficulties. While Martelli initially attempted to distance himself from Craxi, his position soon became untenable, and he was forced to resign in May. Only a couple days later, after lightning consultations with PDS, PDP and deputies from other parties, President Iotti made Martelli's resignation effective by appointing Leoluca Orlando to Prime Ministership. By the next day, Orlando had formed his government, which excluded most of the party bigwigs and politicians involved in the scandals, but instead favored younger and more independent politicians from the traditional parties, such as PSI's Ottaviano del Turco or PDP's Mariotto Segni, while giving most key portfolios to PDS members (Ochetto was deputy PM). Craxi had not given up the fight, and vowed to prevent this government from receiving confidence, so as to force the other parties to negotiate. However, despite Craxi's efforts, Orlando easily won the parliament's confidence, with overwhelming support from PDS but also PRC, the Greens and the Radicals. Surprisingly, a significant share of the PDP abstained, showing the political class' discomfort toward Orlando's calls for transparency. Conversely, some backbenchers from PSI and PLI disobeyed their parties and came out in support of the government.

The following months saw the brutal downfall of the old establishment parties. In March 1993, Craxi, involved in 11 different investigations, was finally forced to resign from the party's leadership. Martelli himself, who has been mounting a challenge against him, had to step down after being targeted by a judicial inquiry. In may 1993, the leadership of the party eventually went to the reformer Ottaviano Del Turco, but constant squabbles with the still-powerful craxist wing of the party prevented him from succeeding in his goal, and by the end of the year the party disbanded, with its left-wing, under Del Turco's lead, joined PDS. Craxi himself fled Italy a few days before his formal indictment, and went to "exile" in Tunisia. The Liberal Party was met with a similar fate, as its leader Renato Altissimo was also charged with corruption in 1993, and the party, unable to reform itself, also disbanded. PDP's downfall was even more brutal: indeed, by early 1993, Orlando and his reformist allies (notably Mariotto Segni, Mino Martinazzoli, Ciriaco De Mita and Giorgio Bogi) left a party crippled by scandals and founded the Italian People's Party. What was left of the PDP disbanded later that year. By the end of the legislature, independents without a prospect for reelection made up more than one fifth of the Parliament. PDS was also hurt by some scandals, but far less than the three other parties, and it was able to emerge from the scandal with little damage.

The Orlando government displayed firmness in dealing with corruption cases, although despite the efforts for political renewal it was suspected that a few cabinet ministers were not completely extraneous to them. Still, the government enacted a major judicial reform by the end of 1992, which toughened penalties, reinforced prosecution powers and limited the status of parliamentary immunity. The fight against criminality also made significant progresses, and in January 1993 Toto' Riina, the Sicilian mafia boss largely responsible for the escalation of violence, was finally arrested. But more than ever, the 1993-1995 period was dominated by economic emergency, as the government struggled to rein in the country's ballooning debt. New austerity measures were passed in March 1993, November 1993 and September 1994. PDS managed to limit as much as possible the damage to the poorest Italians, by shifting the tax burden more on the wealthiest and by limiting cuts to the welfare state. Notably, the March 1993 financial law for the first time established a wealth tax (though its impact on budget was relatively minimal) and the subsequent laws closed many loopholes and included measures to fight tax evasion. Also, substantial cuts were made to the money allotted to elected officials or high civil servants, and a special board was created to identify waste in the bureaucracy. Thanks to these measures, by 1994, the debt had finally begun to shrink. However, this came at a high cost for the Italian economy, as the economic boom of the 1980s came to an end and the country plunged into recession in 1993 and 1994. By 1995, the first signs of a recovery were visible.

Somewhat by miracle, the legislature managed to last for its full term, despite serious tensions sometimes emerging within the government. Certainly, this political stability helped Italy overcome a phase of major political upheaval and economic difficulties. Still, the legislature came to its term in October 1995. Emboldened by its status as the only "survivor" among the major government parties, PDS formed a coalition with PRC and the Greens under the name "Alliance of the Progressives". The campaign heated up early in 1995, when entrepreneur and TV magnate Silvio Berlusconi started from scratch his own party, Forza Italia, and in a short period of time managed to establish it as the central political force of the Italian right. Around FI, Berlusconi forged a coalition called "Pole of Freedoms/Pole of Good Government" with Fini's National Alliance and the Northern League, which directly challenged the left-wing alliance. Concurretly with the elections are also held new abrogative referendums.

[Antonio the Sixth]

List of parties:

Communist Refoundation Party (PRC) The party formed by the left-wing of the former PCI which refused its transformation into the PDS (notably Armando Cossutta, Sergio Garavini and Fausto Bertinotti). The party seeks to reclaim and preserve the communist identity, which the PDS has abandoned. Its holds radically left-wing, if not far-left positions on most issues, and has stood in opposition to the government's austerity measures. Still, it has accepted the alliance with PDS for the upcoming election, based on a program of progressive reform.

Democratic Party of the Left (PDS) The new party born from the ashes of PCI, which under Ochetto's lead concluded its transformation process. Later, it also received the influx of many former socialists from the anti-Craxi left of the party. The PDS now presents itself as a modern progressive party, seeking to bring about social change through democratic reform within a broad left-wing coalition. Though the party, in government, has implemented harsh austerity measures, it has worked to limit the damage to the working class, and with the emergency now over, Ochetto now promises to recreate the conditions for economic growth and ensure that the working class gets its fair share of it.

Federation of the Greens (FV) While the party has not played a major role in this legislature, it has kept slowly promoting its ecologist agenda, with some modest successes. Now inside the new left-wing coalition, it seeks to use its leverage in the future majority to push for new environmental legislation.

Pannella List (Pan.) Pannella is running once again, with his platform inspired by the Radicals' views. It has decided to run on its own, independently from any coalition.

Italian People's Party (PPI) Strong with an impressive record during his 3 years in power, Orlando is leading his new political party along with several other centrist reformists. He has refused to join any of the two coalition, and instead is presenting Italians his own political program based on fiscal responsibility, relentless fight against corruption, and otherwise pragmatic and consensus-based political action.

Forza Italia (FI) The new party founded by Silvio Berlusconi, FI has drawn considerable support and established itself as a major player in the upcoming election. Berlusconi, who owns the country's largest private broadcast corporation Mediaset, is heavily campaigning on television, where he is by far the savviest and most charismatic politician of this generation. He is reenergizing an Italian right which has largely been excluded from power since the 1980s, promising a "liberal revolution" to massively reduce the government's weigh through tax and spending cuts. Forza Italia has attracted many former PLI members, but also, more surprisingly, PSI members close to Craxi (who is said to be a close friend of Berlusconi). Now leading a brand new right-wing coalition with AN and LN, Berlusconi is energetically campaigning to become Italy's next PM.

National Alliance (AN) Accessing to DN's leadership in 1991, Gianfranco Fini vowed to end the political isolation that had characterized his party from the beginning. After slowly beginning to drop the most virulently nationalistic and populist rhetoric, Fini has fulfilled his party's turn toward respectability in a 1995 congress. The party's name was changed to "National Alliance" and the party adopted planks explicitly condemning fascism and the 1970-1973 regime. Fini is trying to position AN as a mainstream conservative political force, free of of the controversies of the past and ready to participate in government. Thus, he accepted the alliance with Berlusconi's new party in the hope to finally access government responsibility. On the other hand, many in the party disapprove of this sharp turn, and view Fini with hostility.

Northern League (LN) The Northern populist party has finally managed to break its political isolation by taking part in Berlusconi's new coalition. It hopes to become the cornerstone of the new right-wing government, so as to promote initiatives favorable to the interests of Northern Italy.

[tpfkaw]

Bunga bunga!

[H. Ross Peron]

PDS

[TDAS04]

I'll go with the PDS.

[DC Al Fine]

National Alliance.

[Lumine]

Berlusconi is here! The real fun begins now...

[Supersonic]

Honestly undecided who to go for (on the right).

[Dereich]

I would normally like to vote for PPI (or for FI if I didn't know how that turned out), but with the referendum possibly creating coalition bonuses I'll go for a more respectable AN. Poor Berlusconi, from the way you described him and from how he probably looked at the time he'd win a lot of votes, but he's too tainted by what happened in the real timeline. I'll be surprised if he ever gets above 10%.

EDIT: 3 minutes later and he's tied for first. I should stop trying to make predictions.

[Goldwater]

Forza Italia. [/losesallrespect]

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would normally like to vote for PPI (or for FI if I didn't know how that turned out), but with the referendum possibly creating coalition bonuses I'll go for a more respectable AN. Poor Berlusconi, from the way you described him and from how he probably looked at the time he'd win a lot of votes, but he's too tainted by what happened in the real timeline. I'll be surprised if he ever gets above 10%.

EDIT: 3 minutes later and he's tied for first. I should stop trying to make predictions.

Yeah, between trolls and neoliberals who shrug off Berlusconi's personal details, I fear FI will do depressingly well.

[TNF]

Ugh what a terrible set of choices.

[RogueBeaver]

National Alliance.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

The fact that FI is ahead--even if it doesn't stay ahead, the fact that it will have been ahead for any part of the voting--is just...dear Lord, what an indictment of the priorities some of us apparently have. I suppose if these votes are meant to be understood as being without hindsight then it's more understandable.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The fact that FI is ahead--even if it doesn't stay ahead, the fact that it will have been ahead for any part of the voting--is just...dear Lord, what an indictment of the priorities some of us apparently have. I suppose if these votes are meant to be understood as being without hindsight then it's more understandable.

I always vote imagining without hindsight on these things.

[Goldwater]

The fact that FI is ahead--even if it doesn't stay ahead, the fact that it will have been ahead for any part of the voting--is just...dear Lord, what an indictment of the priorities some of us apparently have. I suppose if these votes are meant to be understood as being without hindsight then it's more understandable.

I always vote imagining without hindsight on these things.

[DC Al Fine]

This is the closest thing we've had to a realistic result in quite a while.

[Leftbehind]

This is the closest thing we've had to a realistic result in quite a while.

lol early days yet, but if it took Berlusconi to make the Italian Right competitive I wouldn't blame Antonio for dropping it in disgust.

[traininthedistance]

This is the closest thing we've had to a realistic result in quite a while.

lol early days yet, but if it took Berlusconi to make the Italian Right competitive I wouldn't blame Antonio for dropping it in disgust.

TBF it was competitive back in the '50s, too, when PCI was still hard-line Marxist.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The fact that FI is ahead--even if it doesn't stay ahead, the fact that it will have been ahead for any part of the voting--is just...dear Lord, what an indictment of the priorities some of us apparently have. I suppose if these votes are meant to be understood as being without hindsight then it's more understandable.

I always vote imagining without hindsight on these things.

In fairness, I did vote for Craxi's PSI a couple times, so I won't lecture you. Even though Craxi certainly can't be considered Berlusconi's moral equivalent, and a vote for him in hindsight is still much more justifiable than a vote for Berlusconi in hindsight

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is the closest thing we've had to a realistic result in quite a while.

lol early days yet, but if it took Berlusconi to make the Italian Right competitive I wouldn't blame Antonio for dropping it in disgust.

Don't worry about that. I certainly didn't imagine FI would be leading (!), but when I was writing the party description I knew it sounded like something which would appeal to a lot of forumites...

[Donerail]

Voted Pannella, hoping for a Pannella-PPI coalition, doesn't look like I'll get one, though it does look like the List may be one of the power brokers here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

National Alliance.

Considered voting for FI, but given what happened to Berlusconi IRL...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Re-bump. These threads are getting to the bottom of the page much too fast.