How long does the current alignment last?

[The Free North]

We can divide the history of US politics into sections of time that pitted various sections of the country against eachother. From the federalist vs anti-federalist battles in nations infancy to the solid south period after reconstruction, the country has been fairly dynamic with how it aligns with political parties, even if the parties have held the same names over the past 150 years.


Currently, the republican party has solidified its support amongst white voters, older voters and continues to draw its support from rural communities across the country. As a result, it finds its strength in the south, interior west, plains, and parts of the midwest.

The democratic party coalition contains minority groups, women, and younger voters, centered around urban regions. This coalition has reached new heights with the nomination and subsequent election of Barack Obama who successfully united all groups the democratic party had hoped could bring them electoral success. The party draws its strength from the Northeast, West, and various states with higher minority populations and socially liberal citizens.


These trends began during the Nixon years when the republicans began to make a push for southern whites. At the same time, they continued to hold significant portions of the west coast and northeast resulting in landslide elections like 1972 and 1984. The republican stronghold on the white house began to fade with the new democratic coalitions rise following the election of Bill Clinton and to a greater extent, the election of George Bush. The new coalition has solidified in the 2008 and 2012 elections with the election of Obama.

The question then is, how long do these coalitions last, and how do you see the next alignment developing. In the past century we have seen several key changes in political alignment, so it is not unrealistic to think that we could see something else develop in the next 20-30 years. The demographic trends of the country point to a nation that is becoming less white and increasing old. For the upcoming decades, it appears that due to lower hispanic immigration and declining birth rates across the board, the racial trend will continue, but slow to a certain extent, while the country will increasing age, as again, birth rates decline.

So when and how will our next realignment come about, and will it involve a third party?

[illegaloperation]

What caused the last realignment the last time was the civil rights movement.

Race tore the New Deal Coalition apart. With the Southern Strategy, Republicans were able to exploit the crack and win the Deep South.

As of the present, I don't currently see any cracks in the Obama's coalition.

[DC Al Fine]

These things tend to come out of nowhere. No one predicted Canada's realignment in 2011, and if you had told Atlas about it before, we'd tell you you're nuts (Quebec separatists switched en masse to a rigidly federalist party/Conservatives won the immigrant vote). We can't predict the future, but eventually something will come along to crack open the coalitions and realign the various factions.

[barfbag]

It takes quite an event to spark a change in geographics. Today the parties are too different and too established in their strongholds to really see something being drastic enough to change the groups of voters who subscribe to them.

[Franknburger]

The demographic trends of the country point to a nation that is becoming less white and increasing old. For the upcoming decades, it appears that due to lower hispanic immigration and declining birth rates across the board, the racial trend will continue, but slow to a certain extent, while the country will increasing age, as again, birth rates decline.

So when and how will our next realignment come about, and will it involve a third party?

Let's add a probable third trend: Due to globalisation, population will continue to concentrate in large urban areas / agglomerations, especially at the expense of smaller towns/cities, which lie towards the periphery of global trade flows. Rising energy costs will lead to re-migration from the suburbs into the inner cities, at least in relative terms (the trend is already obvious for the UK and Germany, look at the respective demographic maps posted in the "International elections" board).
Rural/ exurban areas will maintain their population, but shift towards a more service-based economy (tourism / retirement / old age care). Age segregation will increase, pushed by increasing real estate price differentials between "hip/busy, well-connected" and "quiet, remote" areas.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't think there will be any major realignment for the next 30-40 years.  Democrats will continue to dominate the same regions and Republicans will continue to dominate certain regions.

The net effect will be that the Democratic party will be the majority party for the majority of Presidential elections (just as it has won the popular vote 5 of the last 6 times).

I don't see Republicans vastly changing even though they will increasingly become outnumbered.  I do see them shifting from a party centered around religious/social conservative views to libertarian/fiscal conservative views as an only means to remain viable.  They still won't win hardly anywhere in the Northeast or West but they will probably do better in a number of swing states based on this and cut into the Democrats inherent advantage in the popular vote.

Democrats will have a much higher floor in terms of popular vote numbers though because the country is getting more urban and Republicans are so incredibly weak among urban voters.  Whites are also moving back into a lot of big cities (see, e.g. New York, Washington) yet those cities are becoming even more Democratic.

[barfbag]

There are moderate trends in favor of Democrats in the southeast coast from D.C. to Miami with a few exceptions. Where I lived in Florida was pretty red though. At the same time we see somewhat moderate trends in favor of Republicans throughout the great lake states. They probably won't lean to the right side of the aisle for at least a decade, but they aren't where they were in the 80's and 90's. Pennsylvania may see a tide favoring the Republicans soon. That said, it will take a few decades for any regions to be different.