Conservatives have been in denial about Virginia for years

[opebo]

Yeah but unfortunately for your side, the opposite trends are manifesting themselves, and more importantly, whites are declining significantly as a share of the electorate everywhere and particularly in states like Nevada.

Whites are becoming increasingly unimportant and also becoming more conservative, or as you would put it "more racist". The emphasis for Hispanics will increase year by year for a while. And while it does, its important that either they vote more republican or whites vote republican enough to make up for their losses in the electorate.

The problem for you is this is extremely unlikely - like competing in a footrace where you have to go uphill and the other fellow is going downhill.

[barfbag]

A combination of whites getting more republican and Hispanics getting more republican will make Nevada a true swing state against like it was for the Bush elections.

Yeah but unfortunately for your side, the opposite trends are manifesting themselves, and more importantly, whites are declining significantly as a share of the electorate everywhere and particularly in states like Nevada.

Whites are becoming increasingly unimportant and also becoming more conservative, or as you would put it "more racist". The emphasis for Hispanics will increase year by year for a while. And while it does, its important that either they vote more republican or whites vote republican enough to make up for their losses in the electorate.

Very true and conservative doesn't mean racist.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah but unfortunately for your side, the opposite trends are manifesting themselves, and more importantly, whites are declining significantly as a share of the electorate everywhere and particularly in states like Nevada.

Whites are becoming increasingly unimportant and also becoming more conservative, or as you would put it "more racist". The emphasis for Hispanics will increase year by year for a while. And while it does, its important that either they vote more republican or whites vote republican enough to make up for their losses in the electorate.

The problem for you is this is extremely unlikely - like competing in a footrace where you have to go uphill and the other fellow is going downhill.

were talking about a simulation/speculation here if Nevada were to become a battleground again. I am not saying at all this is likely to happen.

[ElectionsGuy]

A combination of whites getting more republican and Hispanics getting more republican will make Nevada a true swing state against like it was for the Bush elections.

Yeah but unfortunately for your side, the opposite trends are manifesting themselves, and more importantly, whites are declining significantly as a share of the electorate everywhere and particularly in states like Nevada.

Whites are becoming increasingly unimportant and also becoming more conservative, or as you would put it "more racist". The emphasis for Hispanics will increase year by year for a while. And while it does, its important that either they vote more republican or whites vote republican enough to make up for their losses in the electorate.

Very true and conservative doesn't mean racist.

It does for Opebo

[Oldiesfreak1854]

They've been in denial about a lot of other things for a lot longer, though.

[barfbag]

They've been in denial about a lot of other things for a lot longer, though.

like what

[Devils30]

2000 was actually a subtle warning to the Virginia GOP. Despite an easy Bush victory, Gore did better than Clinton in Fairfax, Henrico, Chesterfield, Richmond City and barely lost ground in Prince William and Loudoun despite an 8 point national swing right.

[barfbag]

2000 was actually a subtle warning to the Virginia GOP. Despite an easy Bush victory, Gore did better than Clinton in Fairfax, Henrico, Chesterfield, Richmond City and barely lost ground in Prince William and Loudoun despite an 8 point national swing right.

I think the trend actually goes back to 1988. Here are the estimates I came up with. Keep in mind that in 1984 Reagan won by enough that trends aren't necessarily indicative. You're right about 2000 being the first noticeable sign. Bush actually won by about the same amount in 2004 as he did in 2000 even though he did better nationally.

1980 R +21
1984 R +7
1988 R +12
1992 R +11
1996 R +10
2000 R +9
2004 R +6
2008 R<1
2012 D<1

[Devils30]

VA was R+3 in 1980 not R+21. The demographic changes began well before the 2000s though and similar trend in the Atlanta suburbs down in Georgia should be a warning sign for the GOP too.

[barfbag]

VA was R+3 in 1980 not R+21. The demographic changes began well before the 2000s though and similar trend in the Atlanta suburbs down in Georgia should be a warning sign for the GOP too.

I look bad now. I was thinking of the margin of victory in the other direction.

[Non Swing Voter]

They've been in denial about a lot of other things for a lot longer, though.

like what

Evolution for one.  Which is probably why they don't understand changing demographics either.

[Non Swing Voter]

VA was R+3 in 1980 not R+21. The demographic changes began well before the 2000s though and similar trend in the Atlanta suburbs down in Georgia should be a warning sign for the GOP too.

I've come to the conclusion that the [fill in the blank suburbs] in [fill in almost any state with a large urban center] should be a warning sign for the GOP.  I'm convinced that the GOP as a party is simply screwed everywhere unless they radically change their message. 

[Non Swing Voter]

VA was R+3 in 1980 not R+21. The demographic changes began well before the 2000s though and similar trend in the Atlanta suburbs down in Georgia should be a warning sign for the GOP too.

prescient