Conservatives have been in denial about Virginia for years

[illegaloperation]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

Yes but like you said it was only 0.03% and the black vote helped Obama. It will continue to vote for the winners of elections for another decade.

So what? Maybe whites hates Obama and didn't voted for him.

What are you trying to say? Please find me where we disagree?

You are telling everyone that Obama over performed in Virginia and North Carolina, because there are a bunch of African Americans that just voted for him exclusively because he is black.

For all I know, maybe Southern whites (not Northeast whites who just move there) just voted against him exclusively because he is black.

There is simply no way right now to confirm that either is true.

[barfbag]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

Yes but like you said it was only 0.03% and the black vote helped Obama. It will continue to vote for the winners of elections for another decade.

So what? Maybe whites hates Obama and didn't voted for him.

What are you trying to say? Please find me where we disagree?

You are telling everyone that Obama over performed in Virginia and North Carolina, because there are a bunch of African Americans that just voted for him exclusively because he is black.

For all I know, maybe Southern whites (not Northeast whites who just move there) just voted against him exclusively because he is black.

There is simply no way right now to confirm that either is true.

We can easily see that Obama won the African American vote overwhelmingly and whites have been voting more heavily Republican recently. This goes for the whole nation not just the south. What other evidence do we need?

[opebo]

I certainly agree that the Obama phenomenon - unprecedented and and perhaps difficult to duplicate African-American turnout + plus exacerbated poor performance with Southern/Mountain/parts of the Midwest whites - means that the 2016 results could be hard to predict.  However, to suggest that Obama is the most important or overriding factor in Virginia, as opposed to the obvious large scale demographic changes taking place there is just erroneous. 

Such an analysis would be much more likely to 'work' for North Carolina than Virginia, where the inexorable grind of demographic improvement is less advanced and perhaps slightly slower, though in that case the disastrous state government could be the local issue that decides things.

[barfbag]

I certainly agree that the Obama phenomenon - unprecedented and and perhaps difficult to duplicate African-American turnout + plus exacerbated poor performance with Southern/Mountain/parts of the Midwest whites - means that the 2016 results could be hard to predict.  However, to suggest that Obama is the most important or overriding factor in Virginia, as opposed to the obvious large scale demographic changes taking place there is just erroneous. 

Such an analysis would be much more likely to 'work' for North Carolina than Virginia, where the inexorable grind of demographic improvement is less advanced and perhaps slightly slower, though in that case the disastrous state government could be the local issue that decides things.

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

[Devils30]

The decrease in black turnout will mean something like going from 13% of the electorate to 12%. For some reason the GOP thinks its returning to 1970s levels and reality will hit in November 2016.

[illegaloperation]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

[barfbag]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

As I've said he brought out the black vote in higher numbers and his ideology of government being the answer to every toothache fits well with government employees and politicians in northern Virginia.

[illegaloperation]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

As I've said he brought out the black vote in higher numbers and his ideology of government being the answer to every toothache fits well with government employees and politicians in northern Virginia.

You've just disregarded everything I've just said.

[barfbag]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

As I've said he brought out the black vote in higher numbers and his ideology of government being the answer to every toothache fits well with government employees and politicians in northern Virginia.

You've just disregarded everything I've just said.

How could you think Obama didn't benefit in Virginia from being black?

[Devils30]

Barfbag is a good case study of someone who probably reads only conservative or right leaning blogs.

[barfbag]

Barfbag is a good case study of someone who probably reads only conservative or right leaning blogs.

What makes you say that?

[Non Swing Voter]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

As I've said he brought out the black vote in higher numbers and his ideology of government being the answer to every toothache fits well with government employees and politicians in northern Virginia.

You've just disregarded everything I've just said.

How could you think Obama didn't benefit in Virginia from being black?

It's safe to see that his ground game and probably race as well helped boost black turnout in some of the downstate precincts.  I also think the reverse was true in southwestern Virginia... white voters probably turned out against him in greater numbers than if Hillary was the nominee.

But that wasn't the tipping point, there simply was not that much greater turnout of black voters to be the only factor...

The bigger issue is Northern Virginia's population gains and Southwestern Virginia's population losses.  Obama racked up huge margins in NOVA counties that aren't even that black.  It is the growth of the DC suburbs that is absolutely killing the GOP in Virginia and it's happening faster than you think.

Not only are the suburbs growing, they are leaning more and more heavily towards the democratic party.  I don't think Republicans have a single senate seat in NOVA anymore and I think the house members are pretty vulnerable. 

Additionally, when the silver line (finally) gets completed, I expect even bigger and more rapid growth in the further out parts of Fairfax.  It will make Fairfax more appealing to city-dwellers who lean far to the left.

So while I won't deny that black turnout was probably pretty good in Virginia last year, you're missing the bigger picture here.  NOVA is growing rapidly, 2016 will be a totally different electorate than 2012.

[barfbag]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

As I've said he brought out the black vote in higher numbers and his ideology of government being the answer to every toothache fits well with government employees and politicians in northern Virginia.

You've just disregarded everything I've just said.

How could you think Obama didn't benefit in Virginia from being black?

It's safe to see that his ground game and probably race as well helped boost black turnout in some of the downstate precincts.  I also think the reverse was true in southwestern Virginia... white voters probably turned out against him in greater numbers than if Hillary was the nominee.

But that wasn't the tipping point, there simply was not that much greater turnout of black voters to be the only factor...

The bigger issue is Northern Virginia's population gains and Southwestern Virginia's population losses.  Obama racked up huge margins in NOVA counties that aren't even that black.  It is the growth of the DC suburbs that is absolutely killing the GOP in Virginia and it's happening faster than you think.

Not only are the suburbs growing, they are leaning more and more heavily towards the democratic party.  I don't think Republicans have a single senate seat in NOVA anymore and I think the house members are pretty vulnerable. 

Additionally, when the silver line (finally) gets completed, I expect even bigger and more rapid growth in the further out parts of Fairfax.  It will make Fairfax more appealing to city-dwellers who lean far to the left.

So while I won't deny that black turnout was probably pretty good in Virginia last year, you're missing the bigger picture here.  NOVA is growing rapidly, 2016 will be a totally different electorate than 2012.

I never said Virginia isn't trending Democratic. It's been noticeable for a quarter of a century.

[hopper]

Obama being black is not a big selling point for a majority of black voters. I mean even John Kerry got 88% of the Black Vote in 2004 nationally. The Republicans usually get 9-12% of the Black Vote in Presidential Elections in the last 30+ years. So Obama got 95% and 93% of the Black Vote in 2008 and 2012 respectively nationally. So a difference of maybe +5-7 percentage points in 2008 and in 2012 3-5 points of what the Dems get of the Black Vote usually  in the past 30+ years of presidential elections.

[barfbag]

Obama being black is not a big selling point for a majority of black voters. I mean even John Kerry got 88% of the Black Vote in 2004 nationally. The Republicans usually get 9-12% of the Black Vote in Presidential Elections in the last 30+ years. So Obama got 95% and 93% of the Black Vote in 2008 and 2012 respectively nationally. So a difference of maybe +5-7 percentage points in 2008 and in 2012 3-5 points of what the Dems get of the Black Vote usually  in the past 30+ years of presidential elections.

My point is it helped not that it won him Virginia.

[roadkill]

The Republicans having all statewide offices (except the 2 Senators), controlling both houses of the state legislature, a large (8-3) US House delegation majority, and Virginia having been more Republican than the nation in every election since I believe 1964 isn't cause for concern?

Virginia is trending Democratic, but it definitely still has a long ways to go before you can say the state Democrats are more powerful than Republicans.

That's true, but Virginia is falling into the same pattern that a lot of swing states do.  That county by county they are a conservative or Republican state, which leads to many Republican victories within the state.  However, on a statewide population basis, they are now more likely to vote Democrat, especially in national elections, than Republican.  And, that trend is only going to strengthen as the population centers that are more likely to vote Democrat grow at a faster rate than the more rural parts that tend to vote for Republicans.

[DesertGator23]

We'll see in 2016 when the Democratic Nominee will be somebody else besides Obama. I do believe the high turnout of the African-American community in Virginia and North Carolina led to Democratic success in 2008, and again in Virginia in 2012. I don't think Hillary would bring the kind of turnout that Obama did, but she'll help swing moderates to vote Dem.

 

[roadkill]

We'll see in 2016 when the Democratic Nominee will be somebody else besides Obama. I do believe the high turnout of the African-American community in Virginia and North Carolina led to Democratic success in 2008, and again in Virginia in 2012. I don't think Hillary would bring the kind of turnout that Obama did, but she'll help swing moderates to vote Dem.

In 2012 Obama got 93% of the black vote in Virginia.  If you compare that to the 87% that Kerry got in 2004, the difference is less than the margin Obama won by.  Meaning ... if Obama would have gotten the same percentages in turnout and votes of the black community that Kerry got, he would have still won the state.

Also with Hillary as a candidate, even if the share of the black vote she got dropped by 10%, a slight 3%-4% increase in the women's vote would more than cover the difference.

[barfbag]

We'll see in 2016 when the Democratic Nominee will be somebody else besides Obama. I do believe the high turnout of the African-American community in Virginia and North Carolina led to Democratic success in 2008, and again in Virginia in 2012. I don't think Hillary would bring the kind of turnout that Obama did, but she'll help swing moderates to vote Dem.

In 2012 Obama got 93% of the black vote in Virginia.  If you compare that to the 87% that Kerry got in 2004, the difference is less than the margin Obama won by.  Meaning ... if Obama would have gotten the same percentages in turnout and votes of the black community that Kerry got, he would have still won the state.

Also with Hillary as a candidate, even if the share of the black vote she got dropped by 10%, a slight 3%-4% increase in the women's vote would more than cover the difference.

It's definitely in jeopardy of falling to the dark side.

[Non Swing Voter]

In the future democrats won't have to do as well with the black vote to win Virginia.  Most of their increased support (even in 2008 and 2012) was among their urban coalition, which was mostly highly educated whites and minorities of various racial groups.  If you look at most of the precincts in Fairfax, Alexandria, Arlington that Obama got huge margins in, they are mostly very affluent and have a black population lower than the state average of 20%.  Those areas are growing at a higher rate than the rest of the state (by far) and they are giving democrats larger margins.  So it's safe to assume that the trendlines for democratic growth in Virginia have little to do with the black population and all to do with educated DC suburban voters increasing as a share of the state population.

The black population is a key part of the state coalition, but it's becoming a smaller and smaller part of it.  The democrats just need to maintain solid numbers among that group and not let their turnout fall to dismal levels.  There is no evidence that either event will happen even with Obama off the ticket.  As others have mentioned, even Kerry got solid margins among black voters and their turnout level was fine as well. 

What democrats do need to focus on is turning out Asians and Hispanics in Northern Virginia in greater numbers, especially in the counties right outside Fairfax.  If the democrats can get NOVA to supply 40% of the statewide vote in the future, there is almost no conceivable way Republicans can win a statewide race.  NOVA (at 40%) + College Towns + Richmond + Black downstate counties = an insurmountable margin for Republicans to overcome under the current political alignments.

If I were the Virginia GOP, I would give up on social issues (immediately) and focus on local issues like traffic congestion, taxes, schools, things suburbanites care about.

[barfbag]

In the future democrats won't have to do as well with the black vote to win Virginia.  Most of their increased support (even in 2008 and 2012) was among their urban coalition, which was mostly highly educated whites and minorities of various racial groups.  If you look at most of the precincts in Fairfax, Alexandria, Arlington that Obama got huge margins in, they are mostly very affluent and have a black population lower than the state average of 20%.  Those areas are growing at a higher rate than the rest of the state (by far) and they are giving democrats larger margins.  So it's safe to assume that the trendlines for democratic growth in Virginia have little to do with the black population and all to do with educated DC suburban voters increasing as a share of the state population.

The black population is a key part of the state coalition, but it's becoming a smaller and smaller part of it.  The democrats just need to maintain solid numbers among that group and not let their turnout fall to dismal levels.  There is no evidence that either event will happen even with Obama off the ticket.  As others have mentioned, even Kerry got solid margins among black voters and their turnout level was fine as well. 

What democrats do need to focus on is turning out Asians and Hispanics in Northern Virginia in greater numbers, especially in the counties right outside Fairfax.  If the democrats can get NOVA to supply 40% of the statewide vote in the future, there is almost no conceivable way Republicans can win a statewide race.  NOVA (at 40%) + College Towns + Richmond + Black downstate counties = an insurmountable margin for Republicans to overcome under the current political alignments.

If I were the Virginia GOP, I would give up on social issues (immediately) and focus on local issues like traffic congestion, taxes, schools, things suburbanites care about.

True and at the federal level focus on school vouchers, lower taxes, and infrastructure.

[DesertGator23]

We'll see in 2016 when the Democratic Nominee will be somebody else besides Obama. I do believe the high turnout of the African-American community in Virginia and North Carolina led to Democratic success in 2008, and again in Virginia in 2012. I don't think Hillary would bring the kind of turnout that Obama did, but she'll help swing moderates to vote Dem.

In 2012 Obama got 93% of the black vote in Virginia.  If you compare that to the 87% that Kerry got in 2004, the difference is less than the margin Obama won by.  Meaning ... if Obama would have gotten the same percentages in turnout and votes of the black community that Kerry got, he would have still won the state.

Also with Hillary as a candidate, even if the share of the black vote she got dropped by 10%, a slight 3%-4% increase in the women's vote would more than cover the difference.

Obama won Virginia by roughly the same amount he won the national vote. I think the turnout of african-americans would have been around 3-4 percent lower if he wasnt the nominee, which would swing the election. But i agree Hillary would pull the women vote in, which is the majority of the electorate.

But, Hillary is not guaranteed the nomination in 2016. If she does get nominated, shell have alot of dirt she'll have a tough go. Plus, her age and health problems might be a factor for a presidential run. I think the Republicans need to have people like Jindal and Martinez on the ticket in 2016 to have a serious shot at taking back the white house.

[roadkill]

Obama won Virginia by roughly the same amount he won the national vote. I think the turnout of african-americans would have been around 3-4 percent lower if he wasnt the nominee, which would swing the election.

The weird thing is that while more african-americans voted in Virginia in 2008 and 2012 than they did in 2004, they made up a slightly smaller percentage of the electorate.  In both 2008 and 2012 they accounted for 20% of the vote, but in 2004 it was 21%.  But putting that to the side.  Even if in 2012 the african-american vote in Virginia was only 18% instead of 20% and Obama got 87% of the vote instead of 93% ... he still would have won.  It would have been like Florida in 2000, but unless something would have changed during the recount, he would have still won.

The one factor I never hear in the whole "Obama won Virginia because the black community came out and voted in large numbers" theory is the reverse side.  That a part of the white community came out and voted in large numbers against Obama.  Therefore reducing the effects of a large african-american turnout.

[NHI]

In the future democrats won't have to do as well with the black vote to win Virginia.  Most of their increased support (even in 2008 and 2012) was among their urban coalition, which was mostly highly educated whites and minorities of various racial groups.  If you look at most of the precincts in Fairfax, Alexandria, Arlington that Obama got huge margins in, they are mostly very affluent and have a black population lower than the state average of 20%.  Those areas are growing at a higher rate than the rest of the state (by far) and they are giving democrats larger margins.  So it's safe to assume that the trendlines for democratic growth in Virginia have little to do with the black population and all to do with educated DC suburban voters increasing as a share of the state population.

The black population is a key part of the state coalition, but it's becoming a smaller and smaller part of it.  The democrats just need to maintain solid numbers among that group and not let their turnout fall to dismal levels.  There is no evidence that either event will happen even with Obama off the ticket.  As others have mentioned, even Kerry got solid margins among black voters and their turnout level was fine as well. 

What democrats do need to focus on is turning out Asians and Hispanics in Northern Virginia in greater numbers, especially in the counties right outside Fairfax.  If the democrats can get NOVA to supply 40% of the statewide vote in the future, there is almost no conceivable way Republicans can win a statewide race.  NOVA (at 40%) + College Towns + Richmond + Black downstate counties = an insurmountable margin for Republicans to overcome under the current political alignments.

If I were the Virginia GOP, I would give up on social issues (immediately) and focus on local issues like traffic congestion, taxes, schools, things suburbanites care about.

True and at the federal level focus on school vouchers, lower taxes, and infrastructure.

Yes to both.

[DS0816]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Think about what you're saying!! You're totally in denial. Virginia didn't vote Obama, it voted Democratic. Don't make excuses.

Imagine we're living 25 years in the past. I say to you- "In the next 25 years there will be two Democratic presidents. One will be a moderate(ish) white governor from Arkansas, nicknamed Bubba. The other one will be a half black senator from Illinois who shares a name with a middle eastern dictator. (can you imagine describing Obama to someone back then??) Then I ask you which one will win Virginia twice. Who would you pick?

Fantastic!