Conservatives have been in denial about Virginia for years

[Non Swing Voter]

http://archive.redstate.com/stories/archived/virginia_not_blue_yet

I like this part the best:

"Democratic victories in two high-profile Virginia campaigns over the last couple of years were the result of a "perfect storm" rather than a "purpling" of the Commonwealth. Any assertion that NoVA can now be reliably depended upon to deliver Democratic victories in statewide races is premature, at best."

I guess the two senate victories + two presidential victories after Webb were all perfect storms.  The weather has been real stormy here the last 6 years.

It's funny because if you recycle this article and just post it here, it's basically the same thing board conservatives are saying now.  "Obama's victory was the perfect storm because he brought out black voters... NOVA won't carry the state in future elections... etc."

[illegaloperation]

Virginia was just the tip of the iceburg.

North Carolina is sure to follow, lacking only eight years behind.

Of cause, it sure helps a lot when the NC Republicans are committing political suicides.

[ElectionsGuy]

Virginia is a true purple state, and moving to the left. This isn't news to me, Virginia's been moving the the left since the 80's, but we did see a huge jump to the left from 2004 to 2008, however I believe that is probably because Obama did better with blacks and Hispanics than Kerry, and also because he brought better turnout among those groups than Kerry did.

The article is right in the sense that it isn't blue yet. Its not a blue state, republicans can still win it if they want to, however its not a red state either and its probably farther from a red state than a blue state now. With Obama's tremendous black turnout across the country, the next election will decide whether or not Obama really did over perform there or not. Even some democrats think he over performed in North Carolina/Virginia. I'm not quite sure I agree with this article though, and think its a denial that the state is moving to the left. But thinking its a strong democratic state or strong republican state is also denial that it is currently a pure toss-up.

[illegaloperation]

In 2012, Virginia is the state closest to the national average.

There is no denying that Virginia and North Carolina are moving with great speed to the left.

[barfbag]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

[opebo]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Dude there's no reason not to feel secure about the future success of the Democratic Party in Virginia. 

[Non Swing Voter]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

[barfbag]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

[old timey villain]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Think about what you're saying!! You're totally in denial. Virginia didn't vote Obama, it voted Democratic. Don't make excuses.

Imagine we're living 25 years in the past. I say to you- "In the next 25 years there will be two Democratic presidents. One will be a moderate(ish) white governor from Arkansas, nicknamed Bubba. The other one will be a half black senator from Illinois who shares a name with a middle eastern dictator. (can you imagine describing Obama to someone back then??) Then I ask you which one will win Virginia twice. Who would you pick?

[barfbag]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Think about what you're saying!! You're totally in denial. Virginia didn't vote Obama, it voted Democratic. Don't make excuses.

Imagine we're living 25 years in the past. I say to you- "In the next 25 years there will be two Democratic presidents. One will be a moderate(ish) white governor from Arkansas, nicknamed Bubba. The other one will be a half black senator from Illinois who shares a name with a middle eastern dictator. (can you imagine describing Obama to someone back then??) Then I ask you which one will win Virginia twice. Who would you pick?

The last time I checked Obama was the Democratic nominee in each of the last two elections. Twenty-five years ago things were different and times always change. Virginia has been changing if that's your comparison. What is your point by saying Virginia is different than it was a quarter of a century ago? No one is arguing against you. It's your party making it sound like conservatives don't live in the real world. When will the left rise above partisanship? This whole thread is a red herring. It's the kind of interruption that can be compared to someone farting during a test.

[Non Swing Voter]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Bull.  Virginia could almost certainly go against a Republican winner.  It was about where the popular vote was the last election and as you've just admitted it is moving left.  Thus it follows that if it was where the country was at in 2012 but is moving left, it could very well be to the left of the country in 2016.  Which any sane, rational person would know is true. 

I don't think you actually live in Virginia.  Your avatar flipped to Virginia recently and you seem to know nothing about Virginia politics.

[barfbag]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Bull.  Virginia could almost certainly go against a Republican winner.  It was about where the popular vote was the last election and as you've just admitted it is moving left.  Thus it follows that if it was where the country was at in 2012 but is moving left, it could very well be to the left of the country in 2016.  Which any sane, rational person would know is true. 

I don't think you actually live in Virginia.  Your avatar flipped to Virginia recently and you seem to know nothing about Virginia politics.

I do live in Virginia and used to live in Florida. In 2016 I expect Virginia to be right where the national vote is give or take a point or two.

[Non Swing Voter]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Bull.  Virginia could almost certainly go against a Republican winner.  It was about where the popular vote was the last election and as you've just admitted it is moving left.  Thus it follows that if it was where the country was at in 2012 but is moving left, it could very well be to the left of the country in 2016.  Which any sane, rational person would know is true. 

I don't think you actually live in Virginia.  Your avatar flipped to Virginia recently and you seem to know nothing about Virginia politics.

I do live in Virginia and used to live in Florida. In 2016 I expect Virginia to be right where the national vote is give or take a point or two.

So in other words you are retracting your prior statement that Virginia will not go against a Republican winner... since you are saying that it could be a point or two left of the national vote...

[barfbag]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Bull.  Virginia could almost certainly go against a Republican winner.  It was about where the popular vote was the last election and as you've just admitted it is moving left.  Thus it follows that if it was where the country was at in 2012 but is moving left, it could very well be to the left of the country in 2016.  Which any sane, rational person would know is true. 

I don't think you actually live in Virginia.  Your avatar flipped to Virginia recently and you seem to know nothing about Virginia politics.

I do live in Virginia and used to live in Florida. In 2016 I expect Virginia to be right where the national vote is give or take a point or two.

So in other words you are retracting your prior statement that Virginia will not go against a Republican winner... since you are saying that it could be a point or two left of the national vote...

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

[illegaloperation]

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

How did he do that?

[barfbag]

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

How did he do that?

He brought out a higher black vote compared to most states.

[illegaloperation]

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

How did he do that?

He brought out a higher black vote compared to most states.

Southern whites dislike him and Hillary can improve the margin with Southern Whites for all we know.

[Non Swing Voter]

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

How did he do that?

He brought out a higher black vote compared to most states.

Do you honestly think upwards of 150,000 black people in Virginia would not have voted but for Obama being on the ballot?  You don't think Democrats would have pushed their turnout knowing 9 out of 10 would vote Democrat?

Even if black turnout goes down in next few cycles, it won't matter.  Republican parts of the state are shrinking.  Democratic parts are expanding.  In fact, a lot of growth is among black people getting priced out of DC and moving to the cheaper parts of NOVA.

[Vosem]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Dude there's no reason not to feel secure about the future success of the Democratic Party in Virginia. 

The Republicans having all statewide offices (except the 2 Senators), controlling both houses of the state legislature, a large (8-3) US House delegation majority, and Virginia having been more Republican than the nation in every election since I believe 1964 isn't cause for concern?

Virginia is trending Democratic, but it definitely still has a long ways to go before you can say the state Democrats are more powerful than Republicans.

[barfbag]

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

How did he do that?

He brought out a higher black vote compared to most states.

Do you honestly think upwards of 150,000 black people in Virginia would not have voted but for Obama being on the ballot?  You don't think Democrats would have pushed their turnout knowing 9 out of 10 would vote Democrat?

Even if black turnout goes down in next few cycles, it won't matter.  Republican parts of the state are shrinking.  Democratic parts are expanding.  In fact, a lot of growth is among black people getting priced out of DC and moving to the cheaper parts of NOVA.

I'm not in denial about any of this. Do you not agree Obama was helped with the black vote in Virginia?

[Devils30]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

[barfbag]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

Yes but like you said it was only 0.03% and the black vote helped Obama. It will continue to vote for the winners of elections for another decade.

[illegaloperation]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

Yes but like you said it was only 0.03% and the black vote helped Obama. It will continue to vote for the winners of elections for another decade.

So what? Maybe whites hates Obama and didn't voted for him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

Yes but like you said it was only 0.03% and the black vote helped Obama. It will continue to vote for the winners of elections for another decade.

So what? Maybe whites hates Obama and didn't voted for him.

I could argue that Obama got way more (like 6% more) white vote than Kerry or Gore did in Virginia, and also that white turnout in that state has gone down while non-white turnout has gone up under Obama, and not to mention Obama getting a higher percentage of non-white vote. But I hope we can just agree that the state is trending significantly democratic no matter where you look.

The theory of Obama getting less white vote than he should only really works in certain areas of the south and even then, Bush got almost the same white vote as Romney except in these states: Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Republican % of the vote for whites has gone down significantly (like 5%!) in North Carolina, and Virginia. Even in South Carolina the white vote might be trending D. And then we have these discussions about future trends for these states and hear the same excuses.

Republican Excuse: Obama brought up greater black vote
Democrat Excuse: Obama got less white vote than he should've.

We will find out if the republican excuse is true in 2016 if a white candidate runs. But right now its still somewhat probable considering that he did much better than Gore/Kerry with black vote and had greater turnout among blacks. The democrat excuse has been debunked, at least for Virginia/North Carolina. And only the parts of the deep south, the Ozarks, and Appalachia had a true white rejection of Obama.

[barfbag]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

Yes but like you said it was only 0.03% and the black vote helped Obama. It will continue to vote for the winners of elections for another decade.

So what? Maybe whites hates Obama and didn't voted for him.

What are you trying to say? Please find me where we disagree?