Why Oregon is a swing state

[Suburbia]

I think the GOP can win Oregon in 2016 if they run a smart, conservative campaign.

[bobloblaw]

Oregon is not a swing state and it's trending Democratic.  Plus, the Republican areas of the state are losing population or about static.  Meanwhile, metro Portland is growing.

Maybe if Republican can get more ironic votes from hipsters.

Trending Dem means its PVI is become more D. Is thsat the case?

Actually the GOP does well until Multomah County begin reporting.

BTW OR voters are getting exactly what they deserve with the current Gov

[ag]

Actually the GOP does well until Multomah County begin reporting.

So, if only you could get rid of the Multnomah county and its 20% of the state population, you´d be fine.

[bedstuy]

Oregon is not a swing state and it's trending Democratic.  Plus, the Republican areas of the state are losing population or about static.  Meanwhile, metro Portland is growing.

Maybe if Republican can get more ironic votes from hipsters.

Trending Dem means its PVI is become more D. Is thsat the case?

Actually the GOP does well until Multomah County begin reporting.

BTW OR voters are getting exactly what they deserve with the current Gov

I know 20 years ago Republicans had 2 US Senators, controlled the state house and had a 2/3 split in US House seats.  Now, Democrats have 2 Senators, control the State house and have a a 4/1 split in US House seats.

And as I said, the most Republican areas of the state are emptying out or growing very slowly.  The Portland Metro, meanwhile, is expanding.  So you do the math.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Yes Oregon has not elected nothing since 2002 but keep this in mind. Obama has been horrific on civil liberties and Rand Paul like Ron Paul is much better on this issue than Obama and Clinton. Add that with Oregon being unstable economically I really do believe it will be close for this election.

Rand Paul won't be the nominee, and even if he is, he'll only do a point or two better than a generic R. Perhaps enough to force the Dem to spend money in the state, but not enough to realistically win it.

[henster]

If scandal plagued Kitzhaber could win easily in a midterm year then how could a Republican realistically win in a presidential year?

[5280]

The only way for Oregon to be a swing state is to remove the western part of the Cascades.

[andrew_c]

No, then it becomes a GOP state.  Oregon would have been a swing state last election without Portland.

[KingSweden]

No, then it becomes a GOP state.  Oregon would have been a swing state last election without Portland.

And that's the key - WITHOUT Portland. Which is growing, fast, along with the rest of Multnomah and Washington.

However, Oregon is not quite as polarized as WA and has elected Republicans to statewide office more recently than WA, so the premise that it is an easier gain for the GOP holds some merit, but only in comparison to its northern and southern neighbors.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow, my comment on here 1 and a half years ago was so cringe worthy I had to delete it.

And yeah, you would have to remove Portland, more than 15% of the state's population, in order to be a swing state. Not to say that a Republican can't win there, they would just need to rack up votes in the suburbs and everywhere else besides Eugene.

[andrew_c]

The only way a Republican wins statewide in Oregon is if the Democrat is deeply unpopular outside of the Portland area.

[Sumner 1868]

The only way a Republican wins statewide in Oregon is if the Democrat is deeply unpopular outside of the Portland area.

This was exactly the case with Ted Kulongoski in 2002 and 2006, yet he won anyway. The latter victory can be dismissed as national climate, but the former indicates a long-term problem for the GOP.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In 2012 Oregon was closer than New Mexico

It could actually get worse for Republicans if Democrats start hitting the 60s in Washington county and Marion county begins to lean-D.

Safe to say, things actually got worse for Republicans relatively swiftly.


Washington County
2016: Clinton 56.9 - Trump 30.9
2020: Biden 65.5 - Trump 30.9

Marion County
2016: Trump 46.3 - Clinton 42.2
2020: Biden 48.9 - Trump 47.7

Deschutes County
2016: Trump 46.4 - Clinton 43.1
2020: Biden 52.7 - Trump 44.4

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I was expecting the OP to be from before 2008.