Maybe, Warner should run against Allen...

[nick]

A recent Emerson college poll has Warner leading 48% to 41% against incumbent George Allen.

Governor Mark Warner (D) has a decent shot at ousting US Senator George Allen (R) in 2006.  The numbers: Warner-48%, Allen-41%. A re-election defeat for Allen would certainly derail his 2008 Presidential ambitions.

http://www.politics1.com/

[nini2287]

That's surprising, I thought a Senate matchup would produce results in the ballpark of Allen 53 Warner 47.  I also thought Kaine would be ahead of Kilgore.  Oh well, it's still almost 2 years until the Senate race and 8 months until the governor one

[nick]

That's surprising, I thought a Senate matchup would produce results in the ballpark of Allen 53 Warner 47.  I also thought Kaine would be ahead of Kilgore.  Oh well, it's still almost 2 years until the Senate race and 8 months until the governor one

Yeah, 2 years is a long time away.  Still, I thought Allen was extremley popular in  VA.  I guess Warner is just as popular.

[nini2287]

That's surprising, I thought a Senate matchup would produce results in the ballpark of Allen 53 Warner 47.  I also thought Kaine would be ahead of Kilgore.  Oh well, it's still almost 2 years until the Senate race and 8 months until the governor one

Yeah, 2 years is a long time away.  Still, I thought Allen was extremley popular in  VA.  I guess Warner is just as popular.

I thought that Allen would win because of the power of incumbency.  If Warner held the seat and Allen ran against him, I'd think Warner would win.

[MHS2002]

An Emerson College poll conducted 2/13-16; surveyed 420 likely VA voters (margin of error +/- 4.8%).

Sen. General Matchup                              Warner Fav/Unfav
                        All    Dem  GOP  Ind         Fav                71%
Warner           48% 93%  11% 73%        Unfav             15
Allen               41      5      81    14
Undec/Oth      11      2        8    14

A couple of problems with this poll:
1. Who/what is Emerson College? No Emerson Colleges anywhere near VA as far as I know. There's one near Boston, fwiw.
2. Warner getting 73% of independents? Allen getting only 81% of Republicans? Forgive me if I am a little skeptical of those numbers.

My feelings: this poll kinda sucks. Plus, Allen is quite popular here, as you guys have stated. It won't be easy for Warner to win; he'll be fighting both incumbency and a popular Senator. Is it possible? Yes. Probable? I would say no.

[nick]

I think Allen is popular, but if Warner finishes his last year as Governor strong I see no reason why he wouldnt be completley neutral with Allen in a 2006 Senate race.  By the way, the thing that caught my attention was Allen isnt even within the margin of error of beating Warner.  That really suprised me.  Maybe we are overestimating Allen and underestimating Warner?

[MHS2002]

Allen was a popular governor in the mid 90s as well as a popular Senator today. Combine those factors with the fact that Virginia still leans a little to the right and it's my belief that Allen probably has about 3-4 points on Warner right now, IMO.

[nick]

Your making some good points MHS, but Warners approval ratings are hard to over look.  The one thing catches my eye about this poll is Kilgore is leading Kaine by a pretty big margin.  I figured Kaine would be leading Kilgore.  Sort of a riding on Warners coattails type of thing.

[MHS2002]

You are right, according to that poll Warner has some high approval ratings. That poll also says he would grab 7 of every 10 independents in a head to head matchup, which is not going to happen.

As far as the gubernatorial race goes, I'm skeptical of the Senate poll that was done, so I am skeptical of their gubernatorial poll as well. Also, there's a very good chance my state Senator, Russ Potts, may run as an "independent Republican" 3rd party candidate and throw the whole race out of whack. I confess I haven't followed this race as closely (I don't think many Virginians have either), so the Kilgore lead over Kaine may just be knee-jerk responses to the (R) and (D) next to the candidate's names.

[J.R. Brown]

Those numbers are very strange. But, Warner's popularity could have something to do with him actually being in Virginia and Allen is in Washington, Oh never mind, Washington is in Virginia. Those numbers are weird and its still pretty early.

[AuH2O]

OK, let me just tell it like it is: Mark Warner cannot beat George Allen head-to-head. Further, Mark Warner knows that and will not run, period. And, no, I haven't heard of Emerson College either, if it even exists.

He will probably run for President, though.

As far as the Governor's race, Kilgore is a strong candidate, and I think Potts can annoy Kilgore but not bring him down. Kaine only won the Lt. Gov. post on Warner's coattails, and even then he won by a much narrower margin against a decent, but not great opponent.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It was the sole Republican Senate  pickup for 2000, which was a bad election for the Republicans, aside from election stealing.

[Frodo]

there are certain groups of politicians that can cater well only on the state or national levels -Mark Warner is such a politician who will only do well on a statewide setting.  he would be a fool to pass up this opportunity to take on George Allen -unless, of course, he is gunning for John Warner's seat once he retires in 2008.  the polls show that that is within reach of a governor as popular as he is.   

consider the fact that he will never win the Democratic Party nomination given his overly centrist views which will not play well with the Democratic Party base.  i'll be honest -i am quite happy with him as governor here within the confines of the Old Dominion, and i want him to continue serving this state as he has done so well since he was first elected in 2001.   if it were possible for him to run for a second term, i would vote for him in a heart-beat (and if i hadn't changed my voter registration in 2001, i would have voted for him then).

but if he were to run for the Democratic Party nomination for president, i will work to ensure he never gets even close to winning.  i want him to stay here in Virginia, and should he feel the need to run a national office, the Senate is the highest office he should ever run for.  he is only popular within Virginia, and he should realize that before embarassing himself in the primaries. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Warner would be a fool to pass up this opportunity to take on George Allen -unless, of course, he is gunning for John Warner's seat once he retires in 2008.  the polls show that that is within reach of a governor as popular as he is.   

consider the fact that he will never win the Democratic Party nomination given his overly centrist views which will not play well with the Democratic Party base.  i'll be honest -i am quite happy with him as governor here within the confines of the Old Dominion, and i want him to continue serving this state as he has done so well since he was first elected in 2001.   if it were possible for him to run for a second term, i would vote for him in a heart-beat (and if i hadn't changed my voter registration in 2001, i would have voted for him then).

but if he were to run for the Democratic Party nomination for president, i will work to ensure he never gets even close to winning.  i want him to stay here in Virginia, and should he feel the need to run a national office, the Senate is the highest office he should ever run for.  he is only popular within Virginia, and he should realize that before embarassing himself in the primaries. 

He'd be a good Presidential or VP candidate.

[Frodo]

Warner would be a fool to pass up this opportunity to take on George Allen -unless, of course, he is gunning for John Warner's seat once he retires in 2008.  the polls show that that is within reach of a governor as popular as he is.   

consider the fact that he will never win the Democratic Party nomination given his overly centrist views which will not play well with the Democratic Party base.  i'll be honest -i am quite happy with him as governor here within the confines of the Old Dominion, and i want him to continue serving this state as he has done so well since he was first elected in 2001.   if it were possible for him to run for a second term, i would vote for him in a heart-beat (and if i hadn't changed my voter registration in 2001, i would have voted for him then).

but if he were to run for the Democratic Party nomination for president, i will work to ensure he never gets even close to winning.  i want him to stay here in Virginia, and should he feel the need to run a national office, the Senate is the highest office he should ever run for.  he is only popular within Virginia, and he should realize that before embarassing himself in the primaries. 

He'd be a good Presidential or VP candidate.

...which he'll never get, as i explained earlier.  which is why i am advocating he run for the Senate instead. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

...which he'll never get, as i explained earlier.  which is why i am advocating he run for the Senate instead. 

Someone at Tradesports thinks he has a good chance.

Here's the Dems:
H. Clinton 41.8
Warner 10.2
Bayh 10.0
Gore 7.2
Edwards 6.3
Kerry 5.8
Richardson 5.3
Rendell 4.1
Biden 4.0

And GOP:
McCain 22.0
Giulani 19.4
Frist 15.3
Jeb 11.2
Owens 9.9
Rice 9.0
Romney 8.1
Allen 5.9





http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?grpID=95

[Frodo]

...which he'll never get, as i explained earlier.  which is why i am advocating he run for the Senate instead. 

Someone at Tradesports thinks he has a good chance.

Here's the Dems:
H. Clinton 41.8
Warner 10.2
Bayh 10.0
Gore 7.2
Edwards 6.3
Kerry 5.8
Richardson 5.3
Rendell 4.1
Biden 4.0

And GOP:
McCain 22.0
Giulani 19.4
Frist 15.3
Jeb 11.2
Owens 9.9
Rice 9.0
Romney 8.1
Allen 5.9





http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?grpID=95

that site is a joke.  Hillary Clinton, obviously, has the greatest chance of winning the nomination, but i don't think Mark Warner even fits there.  you look at the base of the Democratic Party, and look at the candidates, and you tell me which is more likely to win its nomination. 

and notice how, on the GOP side, it gives Rudy Giuliani a decent chance of winning.  ridiculous.   don't take everything you find on the internet seriously.  if i were a Republican, i would be pressing very hard on Jeb Bush to run for president -all the others are mediocre, without charisma, or overly divisive.  Jeb Bush is their best bet for keeping the presidency in Republican hands -provided voters are not suffering from Bush fatigue by 2008.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

...which he'll never get, as i explained earlier.  which is why i am advocating he run for the Senate instead. 

Someone at Tradesports thinks he has a good chance.

Here's the Dems:
H. Clinton 41.8
Warner 10.2
Bayh 10.0
Gore 7.2
Edwards 6.3
Kerry 5.8
Richardson 5.3
Rendell 4.1
Biden 4.0

And GOP:
McCain 22.0
Giulani 19.4
Frist 15.3
Jeb 11.2
Owens 9.9
Rice 9.0
Romney 8.1
Allen 5.9





http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?grpID=95

that site is a joke.  and notice how, on the GOP side, it gives Rudy Giuliani a decent chance of winning.  ridiculous.   don't take everything you find on the internet seriously. 

Yeah, it's weird that he's given such a good chance, since he tend to not poll well in primary polls (0% or 1%), but that could just be low name recognition.

[nick]

Warner would be a fool to pass up this opportunity to take on George Allen -unless, of course, he is gunning for John Warner's seat once he retires in 2008.  the polls show that that is within reach of a governor as popular as he is.   

consider the fact that he will never win the Democratic Party nomination given his overly centrist views which will not play well with the Democratic Party base.  i'll be honest -i am quite happy with him as governor here within the confines of the Old Dominion, and i want him to continue serving this state as he has done so well since he was first elected in 2001.   if it were possible for him to run for a second term, i would vote for him in a heart-beat (and if i hadn't changed my voter registration in 2001, i would have voted for him then).

but if he were to run for the Democratic Party nomination for president, i will work to ensure he never gets even close to winning.  i want him to stay here in Virginia, and should he feel the need to run a national office, the Senate is the highest office he should ever run for.  he is only popular within Virginia, and he should realize that before embarassing himself in the primaries. 

He'd be a good Presidential or VP candidate.

...which he'll never get, as i explained earlier.  which is why i am advocating he run for the Senate instead. 

The base of the party was saying the same thing about Bill Clinton back in 1992.  They had a whole buffet of progressive/liberal candidates, Harkin, Brown, Tsongas.  Guess who came out on top?  That southern, centrist, Governor.

[MHS2002]

...he is gunning for John Warner's seat once he retires in 2008. 

Don't be so sure Warner retires in 2008. I haven't heard anything that would suggest this is his last term.

[Sibboleth]

Senators for one of the Virginia's just don't retire. It's become traditional