How much of the white vote in these Southern cities did Obama receive in 2008?
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  How much of the white vote in these Southern cities did Obama receive in 2008?
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Author Topic: How much of the white vote in these Southern cities did Obama receive in 2008?  (Read 910 times)
TDAS04
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« on: August 12, 2013, 10:54:28 AM »

We all know pretty well at this forum that Southern whites are quite conservative, with blacks providing the bulk of Democratic voters in many areas.  How much of this is a rural/suburban phenomenon?  How liberal are whites in the cities proper?  Is there a big difference?

Estimate how much of the white vote Obama received in 2008 (when there were exit polls for all states) in the following Southern cities:

Austin, TX
Dallas, TX
Houston, TX
New Orleans, LA
Birmingham, AL
Atlanta, GA
Jacksonville, FL
Charlotte, NC
Raleigh, NC
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN

I would guess that Obama won the white vote only in Austin and maybe Raleigh.  He could easily have received less than 1/3 of white voters in Jacksonville and Memphis, and less than 1/4 in Birmingham.
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2013, 12:05:09 PM »

A while ago in DRA, I made a district of all the white-majority precincts in Orleans Parish; Obama won them by something like 57-41.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2013, 12:26:41 PM »

A while ago in DRA, I made a district of all the white-majority precincts in Orleans Parish; Obama won them by something like 57-41.

Wow, that's certainly distinguishes the city limits of New Orleans from the rest of the Louisiana, since Obama received only 14% of the white vote statewide.  I knew that Orleans was quite different, but I didn't know that the contrast was that stark. 
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2013, 12:38:07 PM »

A while ago in DRA, I made a district of all the white-majority precincts in Orleans Parish; Obama won them by something like 57-41.

Wow, that's certainly distinguishes the city limits of New Orleans from the rest of the Louisiana, since Obama received only 14% of the white vote statewide.  I knew that Orleans was quite different, but I didn't know that the contrast was that stark. 

Well the neighborhood where I'm from (in western Orleans Parish) is virtually all white and votes like the rest of the state. My neighborhood is much more the exception that the rule though. There is a good number of white liberal precincts downtown where he got 65-75%.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2013, 09:16:19 PM »

Obama received 80.7% of the overall vote in Atlanta. If we assume non-whites went for Obama 90/10 (very likely considering the demographic weight of AAs; 51% of population versus 9% for other non-whites), then Obama would have received about 66% of the white vote in 2008.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2013, 01:34:41 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2013, 01:38:04 AM by GM Griffin »

I should probably mention that the numbers above (and below) are inferred from DR data solely. In most cases, I'd think 2008 was a relatively good year in terms of electorate resembling VAP, or as good as it could get given the circumstances. Estimates shouldn't be off by any large amount, so...

Atlanta, GA: 65-70%
New Orleans, LA: 55-60%
Raleigh, NC: 50-55%

Charlotte, NC: 40-45%
Nashville, TN: 40-45%
Birmingham, AL: 30-35%
Memphis, TN: 25-30%
Jacksonville, FL: 20-25%
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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2013, 11:16:08 PM »

Based on what I calculated off DRA, it is more like 44-48% in the city of Nashville. It is important to remember that not all of Davidson County is Nashville, and the parts that aren't Nashville are usually very Republican.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2013, 05:33:08 AM »

Based on what I calculated off DRA, it is more like 44-48% in the city of Nashville. It is important to remember that not all of Davidson County is Nashville, and the parts that aren't Nashville are usually very Republican.

Well darn. Sad It looked fishy but I didn't really want to try to splice it all together not knowing the exact circumstances. Augusta and Columbus are the same way - what about Jacksonville?

From what I gather, everyone in Duval County (including the four other municipalities) still gets to vote in Jacksonville elections and receives select public services from the city.
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