Using Urban County Clusters To Guide Redistricting

[jimrtex]

Metropolitan Statistical Areas with rural counties removed.  Counties without a significant population in urbanized areas (less than 25K and less than 25% of the county population are in a lighter tone and shown in red in the text.  Counties with a moderate urbanized area population are shown in green.




ARIZONA

PHOENIX-MESA-SCOTTSDALE, AZ 4193/4193 (2/2): Maricopa County (Phoenix--Mesa, AZ 3489; Avondale--Goodyear, AZ 197)  3817  3686  97% SUA;  Pinal County (Phoenix--Mesa, AZ 140; Casa Grande, AZ 51; Tucson, AZ 9)  376  200  53% SUA.

TUCSON, AZ 980/980 (1/1): Pima County (Tucson, AZ 834)  980  834  85% SUA.

PRESCOTT, AZ 211/211 (1/1): Yavapai County (Prescott Valley--Prescott, AZ 85)  211  85  40% SUA.

LAKE HAVASU CITY-KINGMAN, AZ 200/200 (1/1): Mohave County (Lake Havasu City, AZ 53)  200  53  27% SUA.

YUMA, AZ 196/196 (1/1): Yuma County (Yuma, AZ--CA 134)  196  134  69% SUA.

FLAGSTAFF, AZ 134/134 (1/1): Coconino County (Flagstaff, AZ 72)  134  72  54% SUA.

SIERRA VISTA-DOUGLAS, AZ 131/131 (1/1): Cochise County (Sierra Vista, AZ 53)  131  53  40% SUA.


CALIFORNIA

LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH-ANAHEIM, CA 12829/12829 (2/2): Los Angeles County (Los Angeles--Long Beach--Anaheim, CA 9115; Lancaster--Palmdale, CA 341; Santa Clarita, CA 259; Thousand Oaks, CA 28)  9819  9744  99% SUA;  Orange County (Los Angeles--Long Beach--Anaheim, CA 2430; Mission Viejo--Lake Forest--San Clemente, CA 576)  3010  3006  100% SUA.

SAN FRANCISCO-OAKLAND-HAYWARD, CA 4335/4335 (5/5): Alameda County (San Francisco--Oakland, CA 1306; Concord, CA 117; Livermore, CA 82)  1510  1504  100% SUA;  Contra Costa County (Concord, CA 499; Antioch, CA 278; San Francisco--Oakland, CA 250)  1049  1027  98% SUA;  San Francisco County (San Francisco--Oakland, CA 805)  805  805  100% SUA;  San Mateo County (San Francisco--Oakland, CA 684; San Jose, CA 0)  718  684  95% SUA;  Marin County (San Francisco--Oakland, CA 236)  252  236  93% SUA.

RIVERSIDE-SAN BERNARDINO-ONTARIO, CA 4225/4225 (2/2): Riverside County (Riverside--San Bernardino, CA 1072; Murrieta--Temecula--Menifee, CA 442; Indio--Cathedral City, CA 346; Hemet, CA 163)  2190  2023  92% SUA;  San Bernardino County (Riverside--San Bernardino, CA 860; Los Angeles--Long Beach--Anaheim, CA 603; Victorville--Hesperia, CA 328)  2035  1792  88% SUA.

SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD, CA 3095/3095 (1/1): San Diego County (San Diego, CA 2957; Mission Viejo--Lake Forest--San Clemente, CA 8)  3095  2965  96% SUA.

SACRAMENTO--ROSEVILLE--ARDEN-ARCADE, CA 2149/2149 (4/4): Sacramento County (Sacramento, CA 1359)  1419  1359  96% SUA;  Placer County (Sacramento, CA 255)  348  255  73% SUA;  Yolo County (Davis, CA 73; Woodland, CA 56; Sacramento, CA 48)  201  177  88% SUA;  El Dorado County (Sacramento, CA 61)  181  61  34% SUA.

SAN JOSE-SUNNYVALE-SANTA CLARA, CA 1782/1837 (1/2): Santa Clara County (San Jose, CA 1664; Gilroy--Morgan Hill, CA 98; San Francisco--Oakland, CA 0)  1782  1762  99% SUA;  San Benito County ()  55  0  0% NSUA.

FRESNO, CA 930/930 (1/1): Fresno County (Fresno, CA 655)  930  655  70% SUA.

BAKERSFIELD, CA 840/840 (1/1): Kern County (Bakersfield, CA 524; Delano, CA 54)  840  578  69% SUA.

OXNARD-THOUSAND OAKS-VENTURA, CA 823/823 (1/1): Ventura County (Oxnard, CA 367; Thousand Oaks, CA 186; Simi Valley, CA 125; Camarillo, CA 72; Los Angeles--Long Beach--Anaheim, CA 2; Santa Barbara, CA 0)  823  753  91% SUA.

STOCKTON-LODI, CA 685/685 (1/1): San Joaquin County (Stockton, CA 371; Tracy, CA 88; Manteca, CA 84; Lodi, CA 69)  685  610  89% SUA.

MODESTO, CA 514/514 (1/1): Stanislaus County (Modesto, CA 358; Turlock, CA 75)  514  433  84% SUA.

SANTA ROSA, CA 484/484 (1/1): Sonoma County (Santa Rosa, CA 308; Petaluma, CA 64)  484  372  77% SUA.

VISALIA-PORTERVILLE, CA 442/442 (1/1): Tulare County (Visalia, CA 219; Porterville, CA 70)  442  290  66% SUA.

SANTA MARIA-SANTA BARBARA, CA 424/424 (1/1): Santa Barbara County (Santa Barbara, CA 196; Santa Maria, CA 130; Lompoc, CA 52)  424  378  89% SUA.

SALINAS, CA 415/415 (1/1): Monterey County (Salinas, CA 185; Seaside--Monterey, CA 114; Watsonville, CA 7)  415  306  74% SUA.

VALLEJO-FAIRFIELD, CA 413/413 (1/1): Solano County (Vallejo, CA 146; Fairfield, CA 134; Vacaville, CA 93; Davis, CA 0)  413  372  90% SUA.

SAN LUIS OBISPO-PASO ROBLES-ARROYO GRANDE, CA 270/270 (1/1): San Luis Obispo County (El Paso de Robles (Paso Robles)--Atascadero, CA 65; San Luis Obispo, CA 59; Arroyo Grande--Grover Beach, CA 52; Santa Maria, CA 0)  270  176  65% SUA.

SANTA CRUZ-WATSONVILLE, CA 262/262 (1/1): Santa Cruz County (Santa Cruz, CA 164; Watsonville, CA 66; San Jose, CA 1)  262  231  88% SUA.

MERCED, CA 256/256 (1/1): Merced County (Merced, CA 137; Turlock, CA 25)  256  162  63% SUA.

CHICO, CA 220/220 (1/1): Butte County (Chico, CA 98)  220  98  45% SUA.

REDDING, CA 177/177 (1/1): Shasta County (Redding, CA 118)  177  118  66% SUA.

EL CENTRO, CA 175/175 (1/1): Imperial County (El Centro--Calexico, CA 108; Yuma, AZ--CA 1)  175  109  62% SUA.

YUBA CITY, CA 167/167 (2/2): Sutter County (Yuba City, CA 72)  95  72  76% SUA;  Yuba County (Yuba City, CA 45)  72  45  62% SUA.

HANFORD-CORCORAN, CA 153/153 (1/1): Kings County (Hanford, CA 88)  153  88  57% SUA.

MADERA, CA 151/151 (1/1): Madera County (Madera, CA 78; Fresno, CA 0)  151  78  52% SUA.

NAPA, CA 136/136 (1/1): Napa County (Napa, CA 84; Vallejo, CA 19)  136  103  76% SUA.


COLORADO

DENVER-AURORA-LAKEWOOD, CO 2490/2490 (6/6): Denver County (Denver--Aurora, CO 600)  600  600  100% SUA;  Arapahoe County (Denver--Aurora, CO 563)  572  563  98% SUA;  Jefferson County (Denver--Aurora, CO 484; Lafayette--Louisville--Erie, CO 0)  535  484  91% SUA;  Adams County (Denver--Aurora, CO 426)  442  426  96% SUA;  Douglas County (Denver--Aurora, CO 248; Colorado Springs, CO 0)  285  248  87% SUA;  Broomfield County (Denver--Aurora, CO 52; Lafayette--Louisville--Erie, CO 3)  56  56  99% SUA.

COLORADO SPRINGS, CO 622/646 (1/2): El Paso County (Colorado Springs, CO 559)  622  559  90% SUA;  Teller County ()  23  0  0% NSUA.

FORT COLLINS, CO 300/300 (1/1): Larimer County (Fort Collins, CO 251)  300  251  84% SUA.

BOULDER, CO 295/295 (1/1): Boulder County (Boulder, CO 115; Longmont, CO 87; Lafayette--Louisville--Erie, CO 67; Denver--Aurora, CO 0)  295  268  91% SUA.

GREELEY, CO 253/253 (1/1): Weld County (Greeley, CO 118; Fort Collins, CO 13; Lafayette--Louisville--Erie, CO 10; Longmont, CO 4; Denver--Aurora, CO 1)  253  146  58% SUA.

PUEBLO, CO 159/159 (1/1): Pueblo County (Pueblo, CO 137)  159  137  86% SUA.

GRAND JUNCTION, CO 147/147 (1/1): Mesa County (Grand Junction, CO 128)  147  128  87% SUA.


HAWAII

Not shown.

URBAN HONOLULU, HI 953/953 (1/1): Honolulu County (Urban Honolulu, HI 802; Kailua (Honolulu County)--Kaneohe, HI 114)  953  916  96% SUA.

KAHULUI-WAILUKU-LAHAINA, HI 155/155 (1/1): Maui County (Kahului, HI 56)  155  56  36% SUA.


NEVADA

LAS VEGAS-HENDERSON-PARADISE, NV 1951/1951 (1/1): Clark County (Las Vegas--Henderson, NV 1886)  1951  1886  97% SUA.

RENO, NV 421/421 (1/1): Washoe County (Reno, NV--CA 392)  421  392  93% SUA.

CARSON CITY, NV 55/55 (1/1): Carson City (Carson City, NV 53)  55  53  95% SUA.


NEW MEXICO

ALBUQUERQUE, NM 871/871 (3/3): Bernalillo County (Albuquerque, NM 635)  663  635  96% SUA;  Sandoval County (Albuquerque, NM 107)  132  107  81% SUA;  Valencia County (Los Lunas, NM 64)  77  64  83% SUA.

LAS CRUCES, NM 209/209 (1/1): Doña Ana County (Las Cruces, NM 129; El Paso, TX--NM 31)  209  159  76% SUA.

SANTA FE, NM 144/144 (1/1): Santa Fe County (Santa Fe, NM 89)  144  89  62% SUA.

FARMINGTON, NM 130/130 (1/1): San Juan County (Farmington, NM 53)  130  53  41% SUA.


UTAH

SALT LAKE CITY, UT 1030/1088 (1/2): Salt Lake County (Salt Lake City--West Valley City, UT 1020)  1030  1020  99% SUA;  Tooele County ()  58  0  0% NSUA.

OGDEN-CLEARFIELD, UT 588/588 (3/3): Davis County (Ogden--Layton, UT 304; Salt Lake City--West Valley City, UT 0)  306  304  99% SUA;  Weber County (Ogden--Layton, UT 218)  231  218  94% SUA;  Box Elder County (Ogden--Layton, UT 25)  50  25  49% SUA.

PROVO-OREM, UT 517/517 (1/1): Utah County (Provo--Orem, UT 483; Salt Lake City--West Valley City, UT 1)  517  484  94% SUA.

ST. GEORGE, UT 138/138 (1/1): Washington County (St. George, UT 98)  138  98  71% SUA.

LOGAN, UT-ID 113/113 (1/1): Cache County (Logan, UT 95)  113  95  84% SUA.

[jimrtex]

There is only one edge case in the southwestern US.  Larger counties tends to limit spillover of urbanized areas.  It the next county is 25 miles away, it requires a large city to reach that county.   

There was less intense agricultural development in the West, so that there are fewer small towns or farm houses to supply housing that are within commuting distance of large cities.  Instead when an urbanized area reaches an adjacent county, a large share of the population of the county lives in the immediate spillover area, and will live in the urbanized area.

Arizona: 8 metropolitan counties, 8 counties in UCC.
California: 37 metropolitan counties, 36 in UCC, 1 no significant urbanized area population.
Colorado: 17 metropolitan counties, 12 in UCC, 1 no significant urbanized area, and 4 rural.
Hawaii: 2 metropolitan counties, 2 in UCC.
Nevada: 4 metropolitan counties, 3 in UCC, 1 rural.
New Mexico: 7 metropolitan counties, 6 in UCC, 1 rural.
Utah: 10 metropolitan counties, 7 in UCC, including one edge case, 1 no significant urbanized area, and 2 rural counties.

The one edge case:

Ogden-Clearfield, UT/Box Elder 25K/49%

Though the county extends to the Nevada and Idaho borders, most of the population is north of Ogden, and the Ogden urbanized area extends into the county along I-15/I-84 for about 13 miles.   This strip includes 49% of the county's population in 0.18% of the county area.  The urbanized area populations is just short of 25,000 (rounded to 25K).

Summary through 44 states (southeast, northeast, and southwest)

1089 metropolitan counties.
290 rural.
637 pass 50K/50% test.
59 are edge cases.
103 fail 25K/25% test.

[muon2]

I've been thinking about this in light of the discussions on chops sizes. 5% of a district seems to be a threshold between smaller and larger chops. Rather than use 25K, it seems that 5% of a CD would be a more rational measure. Below that threshold it would only take a small chop to excise the urbanized area, but beyond that it takes a larger chop. A 5% cut varies from state to state but it would be typically around 35K. I've highlighted the counties in the above list that would survive that or 40% urbanized area. To my eyes this seems like a reasonable separation of the edge counties.

I'm not sure that chop size is applicable.

What I've tried to do is include counties that are structurally part of the core of a metropolitan area.

The Census Bureau definition of central counties is too inclusive in some cases, and too exclusive in others. 

...

When the Census Bureau was considering new definitions for 2000, they had proposed three classes of CBSA, metro-, meso-, and micro-, but would have defined metropolitan statistical areas first.  In the name of simplicity, they ended up using a single standard.   25,000 is half of the size of a minimum urbanized area, and seems like a reasonable standard for defining a core county of an MSA

I don't think that it makes sense to say that such a county is not a core county of a metropolitan statistical area,

I started by looking at your list of edge counties to see if they should all be in. In my initial look, coupled with the MCC threshold, 40% seemed like a better number. So, I recently went back to look at the edge county list to see if there were counties that seemed like they should be in a UCC that would be dropped by a 40% cut that I would want to keep. With a 25K threshold there are four that would survive in the SE despite being under 40%.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

These two cases were both ones that I agree should count.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Your comments suggest that this isn't a great fit, and I would be prone to exclude it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This one looks is tricky. Like Walton, GA the Wetumptka UC is separate from the Montgomery UA. It has an even larger rural pop than Walton, though some of that is due to bedroom communities for Montgomery. I expect the Montgomery UA will eventually pick up enough of those communities to eventually move Elmore easily over 40%, but I'm reluctant to count it today with its given numbers.

The reference to chop size was just my attempt to reference as few different numbers for thresholds as possible. If 5% was relevant for other aspects of redistricting, it seemed reasonable to use that here as opposed to some other standard to keep track of. In any case both Walton and Elmore will have to be treated the same unless there is some other relevant factor to descriminate between the two.

[jimrtex]

ALASKA

Not Shown.

ANCHORAGE, AK 292/381 (1/2): Anchorage Municipality (Anchorage, AK 251)  292  251  86% SUA;  Matanuska-Susitna Borough ()  89  0  0% NSUA.

FAIRBANKS, AK 98/98 (1/1): Fairbanks North Star Borough (Fairbanks, AK 65)  98  65  66% SUA.


IDAHO

BOISE CITY, ID 581/581 (2/2): Ada County (Boise City, ID 350; Nampa, ID 0)  392  350  89% SUA;  Canyon County (Nampa, ID 151)  189  151  80% SUA.

COEUR D'ALENE, ID 138/138 (1/1): Kootenai County (Coeur d'Alene, ID 98)  138  98  71% SUA.

IDAHO FALLS, ID 104/104 (1/1): Bonneville County (Idaho Falls, ID 91)  104  91  87% SUA.

POCATELLO, ID 83/83 (1/1): Bannock County (Pocatello, ID 70)  83  70  84% SUA.

LEWISTON, ID-WA 39/39 (1/1): Nez Perce County (Lewiston, ID--WA 32)  39  32  81% SUA.

LOGAN, UT-ID 0/0 (0/0): None.


MONTANA

BILLINGS, MT 148/148 (1/1): Yellowstone County (Billings, MT 115)  148  115  78% SUA.

MISSOULA, MT 109/109 (1/1): Missoula County (Missoula, MT 82)  109  82  75% SUA.

GREAT FALLS, MT 81/81 (1/1): Cascade County (Great Falls, MT 65)  81  65  80% SUA.


OREGON

PORTLAND-VANCOUVER-HILLSBORO, OR-WA 1641/1790 (3/5): Multnomah County (Portland, OR--WA 725)  735  725  99% SUA;  Washington County (Portland, OR--WA 500)  530  500  94% SUA;  Clackamas County (Portland, OR--WA 265)  376  265  70% SUA;  Yamhill County ()  99  0  0% NSUA;  Columbia County (Longview, WA--OR 2)  49  2  5% NSUA.

SALEM, OR 391/391 (2/2): Marion County (Salem, OR 211; Albany, OR 3; Portland, OR--WA 0)  315  214  68% SUA;  Polk County (Salem, OR 26)  75  26  35% SUA.

EUGENE, OR 352/352 (1/1): Lane County (Eugene, OR 247)  352  247  70% SUA.

MEDFORD, OR 203/203 (1/1): Jackson County (Medford, OR 154; Grants Pass, OR 5)  203  159  78% SUA.

BEND-REDMOND, OR 158/158 (1/1): Deschutes County (Bend, OR 84)  158  84  53% SUA.

ALBANY, OR 117/117 (1/1): Linn County (Albany, OR 47)  117  47  40% SUA.

CORVALLIS, OR 86/86 (1/1): Benton County (Corvallis, OR 62; Albany, OR 7)  86  70  81% SUA.

GRANTS PASS, OR 83/83 (1/1): Josephine County (Grants Pass, OR 46)  83  46  55% SUA.


WASHINGTON

SEATTLE-TACOMA-BELLEVUE, WA 3440/3440 (3/3): King County (Seattle, WA 1849)  1931  1849  96% SUA;  Pierce County (Seattle, WA 738)  795  738  93% SUA;  Snohomish County (Seattle, WA 471; Marysville, WA 145)  713  616  86% SUA.

SPOKANE-SPOKANE VALLEY, WA 471/471 (1/1): Spokane County (Spokane, WA 388)  471  388  82% SUA.

PORTLAND-VANCOUVER-HILLSBORO, OR-WA 425/425 (1/1): Clark County (Portland, OR--WA 360)  425  360  85% SUA.

KENNEWICK-RICHLAND, WA 253/253 (2/2): Benton County (Kennewick--Pasco, WA 146)  175  146  83% SUA;  Franklin County (Kennewick--Pasco, WA 64)  78  64  81% SUA.

OLYMPIA-TUMWATER, WA 252/252 (1/1): Thurston County (Olympia--Lacey, WA 177)  252  177  70% SUA.

BREMERTON-SILVERDALE, WA 251/251 (1/1): Kitsap County (Bremerton, WA 199; Seattle, WA 2)  251  201  80% SUA.

YAKIMA, WA 243/243 (1/1): Yakima County (Yakima, WA 130)  243  130  53% SUA.

BELLINGHAM, WA 201/201 (1/1): Whatcom County (Bellingham, WA 114)  201  114  57% SUA.

MOUNT VERNON-ANACORTES, WA 117/117 (1/1): Skagit County (Mount Vernon, WA 63)  117  63  54% SUA.

WENATCHEE, WA 111/111 (2/2): Chelan County (Wenatchee, WA 39)  72  39  54% SUA;  Douglas County (Wenatchee, WA 28)  38  28  73% SUA.

LONGVIEW, WA 102/102 (1/1): Cowlitz County (Longview, WA--OR 62)  102  62  60% SUA.

WALLA WALLA, WA 59/59 (1/1): Walla Walla County (Walla Walla, WA--OR 47; Kennewick--Pasco, WA 2)  59  49  83% SUA.

LEWISTON, ID-WA 22/22 (1/1): Asotin County (Lewiston, ID--WA 20)  22  20  93% SUA.


WYOMING

CHEYENNE, WY 92/92 (1/1): Laramie County (Cheyenne, WY 74)  92  74  80% SUA.

CASPER, WY 75/75 (1/1): Natrona County (Casper, WY 65)  75  65  86% SUA.