The future of the two parties

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't see the Republican party lasting too much longer in its current form (super-religious, super white, etc.).

Therefore, I think the two party system will have to split along different lines (i.e. gay marriage will be legalized and become a non-issue... other social issues will move in that direction too)...

Republican Party = Libertarian, fiscally conservative, socially libertarian live and let live.

Democratic Party = Fiscally liberal, not socialist but moving in that direction, socially still more liberal and using the government to solve social problems.

I could actually see Republicans becoming competitive in states like New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa again... and Democrats becoming competitive in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, etc.

[Space7]

I don't see the Republican party lasting too much longer in its current form (super-religious, super white, etc.).

Therefore, I think the two party system will have to split along different lines (i.e. gay marriage will be legalized and become a non-issue... other social issues will move in that direction too)...

Republican Party = Libertarian, fiscally conservative, socially libertarian live and let live.

Democratic Party = Fiscally liberal, not socialist but moving in that direction, socially still more liberal and using the government to solve social problems.

I could actually see Republicans becoming competitive in states like New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa again... and Democrats becoming competitive in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, etc.

Doubtful. The opposition to those issues is based on religious conviction, which is not something that will be eroded over time.

If I'm not mistaken (I'm no religion expert) I think that more progressive Christians are attempting to "read between the lines" of the Bible, looking for ways to make room for new concepts such as gay marriage. Also, (again I'm not sure about this) I think that partially because of this, Christians in general are warming up to the idea of gay marriage and other mildly heretical socially liberal ideas.

Also, in first world countries (I'm not suggesting the whole world), religion does appear to be slowly "eroding". The religious category "None" which includes non-specific-theism, atheism, and agnosticism, is the fastest growing category in the US.

No matter which way I look at the picture I don't see particularly good medium-to-long term prospects for the Republicans unless they shuffle themselves a little bit closer to the center of the spectrum.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't see the Republican party lasting too much longer in its current form (super-religious, super white, etc.).

Therefore, I think the two party system will have to split along different lines (i.e. gay marriage will be legalized and become a non-issue... other social issues will move in that direction too)...

Republican Party = Libertarian, fiscally conservative, socially libertarian live and let live.

Democratic Party = Fiscally liberal, not socialist but moving in that direction, socially still more liberal and using the government to solve social problems.

I could actually see Republicans becoming competitive in states like New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa again... and Democrats becoming competitive in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, etc.

Every post of yours has been about the republican parties failure and the democratic parties success. I'm getting pretty sick of this, the politics of each party change over time, democrats in the 60's and 70's were definitely more conservative than they are now. I've talked about this before and I'll explain it again, the republican party will not die, no political parties ever die and I'm sick of partisans from both parties getting all confident that their party will dominate simply because they win a few presidential elections.

I do see different states moving in different directions in the future, as states always have moved in different directions throughout history. Who would've predicted 70 years ago that Vermont out of all states would become perhaps the most democratic state after a long transformation in New England? The notion that republicans will have to go to the left on social issues simply because there not doing good and the trends are against them is ridiculous and unlikely (at the moment), but in return, they could go to the right on economics and fiscal issues.

Republicans shouldn't have to go to the left on any issues, they should simply make common sense arguments and maybe they'll do better than they are now. I'm also noticing that both political parties are going to their extremes (anybody who says they're not are obviously partisans) and I feel (at the moment) that only republicans are really getting the blame for being far right. I remember democrats being accused of being "far left" in the Bush years, its all just the same garbage posted over again.

Anyways, if you ask me, Yes, I would support a revival and a new version of the GOP. But that's me, that's not the GOP. And its way to early to start talking about GOP reform and shifting states until we have concrete evidence of trend affects in 2016.

[TNF]

The suggestion that the Republicans are suddenly going to be what liberals want them to be is mind-boggling. If anything, the Republican Party will become even less attractive to Internet liberals, as it's probably going down the road to become a sort of Third Positionist political outfit. As it declines in numbers, the GOP will become more, not less, extreme in its rhetoric and policy positioning. As more and more Hispanic immigrants make it to the polls and the country becomes majority-minority, the Republican Party will be more of a 'white man's party' than the vast majority of liberals can scarcely imagine. I'm talking about a party that will openly advocate closing the borders outright. This of course will likely alienate the business community from the GOP, which will continue moving towards the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party on the other hand will morph into a weird kind of 'market social democracy' party which enacts social democratic ends by market means. Thus it'll kind of be a crony capitalist party with a lot of big friends on Wall Street that it funnels state funds as the state itself becomes a sort of middleman between corporate America and literally everyone else. We'll have universal healthcare, higher education, all that, but it'll be thoroughly corporatized; that is, we'll have them on the terms of the massive international corporations that control our politics, not on the terms of a democratic citizenry. Imagine Obamacare, but replicated on a massive scale. It won't be a traditional 20th century welfare state (because organized labor will be essentially neutralized), but rather a massive, bloated middleman state where tax dollars are shifted through various corporate organs to deliver the public a product, rather than a public service. There will still be a 'pity-charity' welfare state, but it'll be on the terms of the corporate elite that runs the country and the Democratic Party, not the public at-large. Food stamps* will still exist, as will traditional welfare, but these programs will be changed beyond recognition; Social Security will be privatized, turned into something that some parasitic Wall Street middleman can turn a profit off of, and Medicare will likewise be the same, turned into a functional extension of Obamacare by enterprising Democratic politicians.



*Food Stamps will very likely be limited in nature to promote 'healthy diets,' aka no more using food stamps to buy soda and potato chips, you must buy organic arugula or something.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some form of third party llibertarian mov't will eventually splinter off the GOP if they don't get the prez  w Christie. They will become a major thorn in the side of the GOP as they are now and as a third party in 2020.

[Franknburger]

Some form of third party llibertarian mov't will eventually splinter off the GOP if they don't get the prez  w Christie. They will become a major thorn in the side of the GOP as they are now and as a third party in 2020.

I could equally imagine a 'red vs. green" split of the current DEM coalition, in 21st century 'pirate' style, i.e. driven by internet freedom / privacy issues. To gain traction, such a split would have to economically moderate. Judged by European experience, the split is unlikely to emerge to political relevance in DEM strongholds. Instead, it should first become politically significant in smaller (=less populated) states that are GOP strongholds and undergoing demographic and economic transition. Such transition, combined with voter fatigue with local GOP establishment, and traditional reservations towards the Democrats, provides the ideal breeding ground.
As such, it would probably emerge in UT/ID/MT, maybe NE or NH (though the latter two are more likely to mark the first stage of regional expansion), spill over into the major "techy" urban centres (Boston, NYC, Chicago, Seattle, Bay area) and from there gain national relevance. Ethnically, such a movement should include a strong Asian base. If it also manages to organise and appeal to Latinos, I could well imagine Texas to be the first major state where it becomes significant.

An interesting question is to which extent the US' two-party system will promote, maybe even require the Libertarian GOP split and the "green/pirate" DEM split to integrate. The result could be something similar to Scandinavian centrist parties.

[Phony Moderate]

My feelings on the Democratic Party are somewhat similar to Peter Hitchens' feelings on the Conservative Party. For the most part it is utterly useless from a meaningful leftist point of view. The way it effed-up healthcare reform was perhaps the most painfully obvious example. I really would love to see an alternative (and viable) left-wing party (such as is the case in, you know, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, Netherlands, Sweden....), just as many on the right would love to see an alternative to the Republican Party, but given how the American political system works, it's not going to happen in the near future. But there would be some hope if the party regisration nonsense were done away with.

Funnily enough, I used to hold the idiotic belief (back during Obamamania in 2008/2009) that the Democratic Party (and Obama) was the best thing since sliced bread.

Anyway, as for the future of the two parties, I suspect that they'll both continue to (gradually) move with the times, just as they have done throughout their histories.

[barfbag]

I think both parties will splinter off into third parties which will hurt them evenly. In another decade or two it maybe hard for either candidate to get 50% of the popular vote. Socialists like Bernie Sanders, Dennis Kucinich, and Howard Dean will splinter off into socialists. The tea party movement may very well splinter off into the Libertarian Party. Tea Partiers such as Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, and Michelle Bachmann will pose a serious threat to our party. Independents like Michael Bloomberg will still be insignificant because they're copouts and don't really matter.

[HansOslo]

I can imagine the parties moving in entirely different directions as well. The GOP might turn towards more populist or even protectionist economic policies, “Main Street” and the small business owners in the Heartland, as opposed to Wall Street and globalist capitalism. I assume such a GOP would still be very culturally conservative. Issues like immigration are already creating fissures between the Wall Street donors and the core voters in the South and the Midwest. This wouldn’t necessarily be an all-white party either. I can imagine a party based along these lines could also draw a lot of votes from working class Blacks and Hispanics as well.


This would leave the Democratic Party as the party of social liberalism, globalization and  capitalism. That is a mix that work for a lot of European parties, and it fits with a Democratic party that draws most of its votes from the big cites. There are of course parts of the current Democratic coalition that would object to this (unionized workers in the private sector), but I think the Democrats can afford to lose them.

[DC Al Fine]

The suggestion that the Republicans are suddenly going to be what liberals want them to be is mind-boggling. If anything, the Republican Party will become even less attractive to Internet liberals, as it's probably going down the road to become a sort of Third Positionist political outfit. As it declines in numbers, the GOP will become more, not less, extreme in its rhetoric and policy positioning. As more and more Hispanic immigrants make it to the polls and the country becomes majority-minority, the Republican Party will be more of a 'white man's party' than the vast majority of liberals can scarcely imagine. I'm talking about a party that will openly advocate closing the borders outright. This of course will likely alienate the business community from the GOP, which will continue moving towards the Democratic Party.

This.

[hopper]

I see the GOP becoming more reform minded by the time the 2024 Presidential Elections come around. The GOP will calm its rhetoric on social issues. The Tea Party influence will be gone by 2020 but not in time to knock off the Dems for the White House. I do think the Dems will win with Hillary in 2016 based on demography alone if Christie is the GOP nominee. Christie will be tough in the "Rust Belt" but I don't think he will beat Hillary in the end.

[barfbag]

I see the Republicans becoming the party of the common man with the way Democrats abandoned seniors on social security and Medicare in order to concoct Obamacare. They're also becoming more and more the party of minorities and the youth which is a turn off to the elderly. It would be a reverse effect of the great depression.

[DC Al Fine]

I see the Republicans becoming the party of the common man with the way Democrats abandoned seniors on social security and Medicare in order to concoct Obamacare. They're also becoming more and more the party of minorities and the youth which is a turn off to the elderly. It would be a reverse effect of the great depression.

Umm..

[Orser67]

I see the Democratic Party remaining about where it is now. As young (mostly) white liberals get older, they'll put pressure on the Democratic Party to move in a libertarian direction.

I predict that the GOP going through the "wilderness" for several years, nominating extreme presidential candidates and clinging to power in the House. Of course, even if they nominate extreme candidates, they could still win the election given the right set of events. The GOP might adapt to changing demographics, but I think many underestimate how difficult that will be. Republicans will face a quandary, as the ideological purists will try to push them away from the center, which will turn off swing voters. But if the GOP tries to stick to the center, conservatives could very well start a third party.

While I would bet against it, there's no guarantee the GOP will be around throughout our lifetimes. Just because a major party hasn't disappeared in 150 years doesn't mean that it will never happen again. The Democrats could also disappear as a major party, but the GOP faces much larger problems than the Democrats, at least right now.

[barfbag]

I see the Republicans becoming the party of the common man with the way Democrats abandoned seniors on social security and Medicare in order to concoct Obamacare. They're also becoming more and more the party of minorities and the youth which is a turn off to the elderly. It would be a reverse effect of the great depression.

Umm..

Yes?

[DC Al Fine]

I see the Republicans becoming the party of the common man with the way Democrats abandoned seniors on social security and Medicare in order to concoct Obamacare. They're also becoming more and more the party of minorities and the youth which is a turn off to the elderly. It would be a reverse effect of the great depression.

Umm..

Yes?

Perhaps I'm reading you wrong but you said the GOP is the party of minorities eh?

If anything we're bottoming out in our performance among minorities.

[ElectionsGuy]

I see the Republicans becoming the party of the common man with the way Democrats abandoned seniors on social security and Medicare in order to concoct Obamacare. They're also becoming more and more the party of minorities and the youth which is a turn off to the elderly. It would be a reverse effect of the great depression.

Umm..

Yes?

Perhaps I'm reading you wrong but you said the GOP is the party of minorities eh?

If anything we're bottoming out in our performance among minorities.

I think he meant the democrats.

[DC Al Fine]

I see the Republicans becoming the party of the common man with the way Democrats abandoned seniors on social security and Medicare in order to concoct Obamacare. They're also becoming more and more the party of minorities and the youth which is a turn off to the elderly. It would be a reverse effect of the great depression.

Umm..

Yes?

Perhaps I'm reading you wrong but you said the GOP is the party of minorities eh?

If anything we're bottoming out in our performance among minorities.

I think he meant the democrats.

Whoops, my mistake

[ElectionsGuy]

I see the Republicans becoming the party of the common man with the way Democrats abandoned seniors on social security and Medicare in order to concoct Obamacare. They're also becoming more and more the party of minorities and the youth which is a turn off to the elderly. It would be a reverse effect of the great depression.

Umm..

Yes?

Perhaps I'm reading you wrong but you said the GOP is the party of minorities eh?

If anything we're bottoming out in our performance among minorities.

I think he meant the democrats.

Whoops, my mistake

No, it OK, I got confused too. He said what the republican party might be becoming and mentioned the democratic party in that sentence, and then probably said what the democratic party is becoming, so I believe it was just fast typing in which you can leave out words that make sense. And generally it makes sense that the democratic party is becoming a more minority party. If he meant the republicans, then he's probably talking about a scenario that would be improbable now but is still possible in a few decades.

[Vern]

Both parties will be fine and will win more elections. They both will find new issues to fight over and to divide the nation on. No thrid party will come up and take over any party, that's a pipe dream.

[Vosem]

I predict that the GOP going through the "wilderness" for several years...clinging to power in the House.

You just contradicted yourself. A party going through the wilderness is not a party that controls a branch of the legislature.

[TDAS04]

Both parties will be fine and will win more elections. They both will find new issuers to fight over and to divide the nation on. There will not be any thrid party come up and take over any other either party, that's a pipe dream.

This.

The Republican Party is not dead.  The Democrats were not dead in 1920, the Republicans were not dead in 1936, and there is no way that a party that currently controls the House is dead today.  The two-party system will always revive itself.  The Republicans will eventually figure out how to avoid alienating youth and minorities as much as they have been. 

[barfbag]

Both parties will be fine and will win more elections. They both will find new issuers to fight over and to divide the nation on. There will not be any thrid party come up and take over any other either party, that's a pipe dream.

This.

The Republican Party is not dead.  The Democrats were not dead in 1920, the Republicans were not dead in 1936, and there is no way that a party that currently controls the House is dead today.  The two-party system will always revive itself.  The Republicans will eventually figure out how to avoid alienating youth and minorities as much as they have been. 

Yes finally

[eric82oslo]

I see the GOP becoming more reform minded by the time the 2024 Presidential Elections come around. The GOP will calm its rhetoric on social issues. The Tea Party influence will be gone by 2020 but not in time to knock off the Dems for the White House. I do think the Dems will win with Hillary in 2016 based on demography alone if Christie is the GOP nominee. Christie will be tough in the "Rust Belt" but I don't think he will beat Hillary in the end.

I agree on this.

[Person Man]

Both parties will be fine and will win more elections. They both will find new issuers to fight over and to divide the nation on. There will not be any thrid party come up and take over any other either party, that's a pipe dream.

This.

The Republican Party is not dead.  The Democrats were not dead in 1920, the Republicans were not dead in 1936, and there is no way that a party that currently controls the House is dead today.  The two-party system will always revive itself.  The Republicans will eventually figure out how to avoid alienating youth and minorities as much as they have been. 

Well, in 2005, the issue was whether Democrats would eventually figure out how to avoid alienating middle-aged 30K or 40K something earning white people who needed help living better but didn't like change. If there's another disaster that Obama is blamed for or somehow Obama irreversibly pisses people off that voted for him last year, Republicans will probably find a way to win without college kids and Mexicans. If not, the Democrats will probably narrowly keep the senate and the white house in 2014 and 2016 but by 2020, the Republicans will probably take full control when they convince enough young rural people and moderate minorities to bring back the Bush coalition the way Clinton did with the New Dealers in the 90s. It won't last and generally it will be easier for Democrats to win until the Republicans can sweep up enough of the Democratic coalition to reclaim things.