Democratic Lock on the Electoral College

[JFK-Democrat]

I think the Republican party as we know it today will be extinct by the 2024 elections at the latest. The simple reason is that with the massive demographic changes underway Democrats have a virtual lock on the most important states. Once Texas becomes a swing state its O-V-E-R for Republicans they will not win anymore elections. They will fracture and become two parties.

Democrats have a better than 80% chance to carry ALL of these states in the next 5 presidential elections.

California
New York
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Florida (This state is going to be the next California for Democrats)

Not to mention

Virginia
Nevada
Colorado

Final point, the best candidate the Republicans have for 2016 is essentially a centrist democrat - Chris Christie and he is still going to lose to Hillary.

[Miles]

I think the Republican party as we know it today will be extinct by the 2024 elections at the latest. The simple reason is that with the massive demographic changes underway Democrats have a virtual lock on the most important states. Once Texas becomes a swing state its O-V-E-R for Republicans they will not win anymore elections. They will fracture and become two parties.

Except for their lock on the House and several state legislatures...

[Statesman]

I agree that in its current form the Republican Party will have a very difficult time winning presidential elections, and unless they at least become more socially liberal and keep up with the times, they won't win the White House.

The next GOP President will probably be in the mid-late 2020s (after two terms of Hillary when incumbent party fatigue is really hitting), will back same-sex marriage and possibly the federal rescheduling of cannabis that (probably) happens in the late 2010s/early 2020s, and will be very careful in framing their economic message as a square deal for the middle class - they won't be like Mitt Romney. It might take losing several more consecutive elections due to terrible candidates for this to happen - a winning GOP candidate would probably have to be substantially more centrist than Christie to get enough support, because the old GOP base is dwindling and the country isn't about social conservatism.

For the GOP to be electable, they'll have to stake out more socially liberal positions while reframing their economic stances in a way that is palatable to people who aren't already wealthy, and in addition will have to assert that their new, socially... let's say, libertarian viewpoints are in keeping with a small government ethos.

I disagree with the assertion that Christie is basically a centrist Democrat - most centrist Democrats at least aren't totally anti-union, and almost all centrist Democrats would support same-sex marriage at this point. Huntsman is actually more centrist than Christie at this point, and he could win (even some of my more liberal friends would consider voting for him under the right circumstances), but the GOP probably won't think about him until they've lost two more elections.

Even if Christie gets the GOP nod and Hillary doesn't run, there are other Democrats who could give Christie a run for his money, and the Democratic camp could just play ad after ad of Christie hugging Obama, hurting Christie among the conservative base by bringing up the idea that he sabotaged Romney during Sandy. There's also the off-chance of a third party run by Rand Paul, who has made it plain that he despises Christie.

My basic prediction

2016 - Clinton defeats Christie (and maybe Paul in three-way race), GOP turns back on centrists for another cycle because they think, "Well, Romney and Christie couldn't seal the deal but they were centrists", except they weren't really that centrist.

2020 - Clinton defeats Cruz or Santorum after far-right victory in primaries, GOP does much worse than in 2012 or 2016 as President Clinton wins 40+ states, starts to look at moderates again. The GOP is not helped by the economy having recovered much more substantially by this point. Hillary will have made history not only as the first female President, but as the fourth consecutive two-term President for the first time since James Madison and the first Democrat to win 40+ states since LBJ in 1964. Texas goes very narrowly (narrower than Florida '12) to Democrats for the first time since 1976.

2024 - Huntsman-esque moderate defeats Clinton VP or other Dem, albeit narrowly as incumbent fatigue ensures that there isn't a fifth consecutive Democratic election win.

[badgate]

Even if Christie gets the GOP nod and Hillary doesn't run, there are other Democrats who could give Christie a run for his money, and the Democratic camp could just play ad after ad of Christie hugging Obama, hurting Christie among the conservative base by bringing up the idea that he sabotaged Romney during Sandy.

There will probably be primary ads about Sandy too, especially Christie 'publicly' (I think it was leaked) declining an invite to a PA rally

[HAnnA MArin County]

I don't think they'll become extinct by then, unfortunately. Remember it was after the 2008 election that the GOP was declared "a dying breed" only to bounce back in the 2010 midterm wave election. Rather, I envision a cycle of somewhat wave elections where Democrats win the White House (higher minority turnout) in presidential years and Republicans control Congress after racking up the numbers among whites in lower turnout (midterm) elections. This is, of course, assuming that the Republicans stick to their strategy of increasing the white GOTV while ignoring the minority/demographic pandering to Hispanics/Latinos and other. I think we will continue to see divided government for quite some time now until whites become the minority and then the Democrats will start doing better at the congressional level. Ultimately it'll depend upon whom the Republicans nominate in 2016 to see how that theory pans out. If they nominate an alleged moderate or establishment Republican like Christie who is seen as a bipartisan individual, that would be a good indication that the party is finally realizing that it's not 1950 anymore where the electorate consisted mostly of angry old white men. If a far-right/Tea Party Republican like Cruz, Paul, or Rubio (to a lesser extent) is nominated, it'll show that the Republicans are not making any efforts to reach out to the median voter but instead placating to its extreme base. Some of them attribute this nominating of perceived "moderates" (McCain and Romney) to why they lost the past two elections in that they did not motivate their base of white voters to turn out to vote for them. Democrats make the same argument in midterm elections when minorities do not turn out to vote. It's an interesting theory to consider, but even if the Republicans choose to use that strategy in the future, eventually it will prove to be ineffective when, as previously mentioned, whites become the minority.

I do ultimately agree, though, that the party will either have to moderate and reach out to minorities or, as someone already said, it will fracture into two.

[Cryptic]

My basic prediction

2016 - Clinton defeats Christie (and maybe Paul in three-way race), GOP turns back on centrists for another cycle because they think, "Well, Romney and Christie couldn't seal the deal but they were centrists", except they weren't really that centrist.

2020 - Clinton defeats Cruz or Santorum after far-right victory in primaries, GOP does much worse than in 2012 or 2016 as President Clinton wins 40+ states, starts to look at moderates again. The GOP is not helped by the economy having recovered much more substantially by this point. Hillary will have made history not only as the first female President, but as the fourth consecutive two-term President for the first time since James Madison and the first Democrat to win 40+ states since LBJ in 1964. Texas goes very narrowly (narrower than Florida '12) to Democrats for the first time since 1976.

2024 - Huntsman-esque moderate defeats Clinton VP or other Dem, albeit narrowly as incumbent fatigue ensures that there isn't a fifth consecutive Democratic election win.

This is what I believe will happen too.  Maybe not necessarily Clinton, but whoever the Democrat nominee is in 2016 could have as much luck.  Time will tell, I suppose.

[retromike22]

If parties don't win, they change.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No party has a lock on anything. Period.

[Mister Mets]

I think the Republican party as we know it today will be extinct by the 2024 elections at the latest. The simple reason is that with the massive demographic changes underway Democrats have a virtual lock on the most important states. Once Texas becomes a swing state its O-V-E-R for Republicans they will not win anymore elections. They will fracture and become two parties.

Democrats have a better than 80% chance to carry ALL of these states in the next 5 presidential elections.

California
New York
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Florida (This state is going to be the next California for Democrats)

Not to mention

Virginia
Nevada
Colorado

Final point, the best candidate the Republicans have for 2016 is essentially a centrist democrat - Chris Christie and he is still going to lose to Hillary.

I don't think Democrats have an eighty percent chance of winning Florida and Pennsylvania.

There's no way Democrats have an 80% chance of winning a state they won by less than a percentage point when they had an incumbent President on the ticket.

In 2012, Pennsylvania was 1.5 points more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the nation, a decline from 2008 which was a decline from 2004. A swing state Republicans should win if they have a two point margin in the popular vote is hardly an example of a Democratic Lock on the electoral college.

Check out old election results and see what happens to the states won by incumbent Presidents by five points in the next election.

[emailking]

Hillary will have made history not only as the first female President, but as the fourth consecutive two-term President for the first time since James Madison

??

Adams was one term. Jefferson, Madison, & Monroe were two terms. Adams Jr. was one term.

I don't think four consectuvie two terms has happened unless you count FDR through Johnson or Nixon (either way) but it has to be at the party level since deaths spoil it.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Some parties just control the white house for long periods of time.   The public view at this time is probably closer to the Democratic party.   But the Republicans returned from Roosevelt's landslides, and the Democrats recovered from Nixon and Reagan's landslides.  The Democrats have no lock on the Presidency.  Things change quickly. 

[DrScholl]

Republicans have alienated a lot of swing voters and if they continue to do so (no signs that they will stop anytime soon), then Democrats do have a lock on the electoral college.

[Statesman]

Hillary will have made history not only as the first female President, but as the fourth consecutive two-term President for the first time since James Madison

??

Adams was one term. Jefferson, Madison, & Monroe were two terms. Adams Jr. was one term.

I don't think four consectuvie two terms has happened unless you count FDR through Johnson or Nixon (either way) but it has to be at the party level since deaths spoil it.

Ah yes, you're right, I did overlook that. Still, it'll be the third consecutive two-term president for the first time since James Monroe.

I'm not guaranteeing that the Democrats have an absolute lock, and my predictions may not happen. However, it seems to me that Democrats will have a more favorable electoral climate in the next few cycles if the Republican Party does not change. It seems that with the more-or-less consistently negative view the electorate has had of the Republican Party as of the better part of the last decade, and with a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy (the former Secretary is in a much more formidable position now than in 2008 as a general election candidate), the conditions may favor a third or possibly fourth consecutive Democratic election win more than at any time since the 1940s, never mind that by some interpretations, 2000 actually was a third consecutive Democratic election win (except for the Gore becoming President part).

[milhouse24]

even if Hillary wins in 2016, I think she will have a very difficult time winning re-election in 2020. 
Economic cycles will likely mean a downturn during her first term.
There might be other external or internal issues that decrease her popularity. 

I think its absolutely silly and uneducated to say that one political party is dead while discounting the significant probability that the incubement party over-reaches. 

You could have said the Democrat Party was dead after Gore lost, since that meant the GOP won in 7 out of the last 10 elections. 

The Vietnam War just about killed the Democrat Party for the rest of the 1900's.  I don't know if the Iraq War will kill the Republican Party for that long, but its likely the Democrats will face another issue or other wars that become unpopular and allow the Republicans back into the White House.

[Likely Voter]

The Democrats have an 'advantage' but not a 'lock.' In an election with generic Dem vs. Generic GOP candidate with conditions being within normal parameters the Dem should win 285 EV (w/ PA, NV, CO, VA, WI, IA, NH) to GOP 253 (w/ NC, FL, OH).  But economic conditions and/or weak Dem Candidate or strong GOP candidate can easily overcome that advantage.

Certainly if FL trends to the Dem side things get very ugly for the GOP but that assumes that states like PA and WI stay on the Dem side of the 50/50 mark.

I do believe that in 20 years the GOP will be different than it is today. It can no longer be the party of southern white men in the future. It may take a couple of cycles for that to sink in but it will.

[milhouse24]

It really just takes one good GOP candidate to secure 8 years by beating a old, bad, gaffe-prone Democratic candidate. 

Whoever does the best to secure the Hispanic vote will win the election. 

[Devils30]

Democrats have much more room to grow in Florida as the GOP vote in the northern part is more or less maxed out, while the Hispanic vote around Tampa/Orlando continues to grow. Not to mention Hillary will be better in Palm Beach than Obama. I would expect 2016 to have a near even PVI in FL but the state is not becoming the next California. Whites are not as liberal and if a Democratic lean is coming it will still take years to sink in.

[opebo]

Democrats have much more room to grow in Florida as the GOP vote in the northern part is more or less maxed out, while the Hispanic vote around Tampa/Orlando continues to grow. Not to mention Hillary will be better in Palm Beach than Obama. I would expect 2016 to have a near even PVI in FL but the state is not becoming the next California. Whites are not as liberal and if a Democratic lean is coming it will still take years to sink in.

They say the current generation of olds is unusually Republican (the Silent Generation I think they call it, the Greatest having nearly all died off now), and thus as they die off the replacement generation of old should be slightly less Republican.

[Cory]

Some parties just control the white house for long periods of time.   The public view at this time is probably closer to the Democratic party.   But the Republicans returned from Roosevelt's landslides, and the Democrats recovered from Nixon and Reagan's landslides.  The Democrats have no lock on the Presidency.  Things change quickly. 

[barfbag]

Wow! I couldn't disagree more because in order to have a lock on the electoral college, you have to win enough states first I'd put D.C., MA, RI, VT, HI, NY, MD, CA, CT, DE, NJ, IL, WA, and possibly ME as their likely states as of now. The rest are in play until the year of the election. If Christie runs, then New Jersey would swing.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I think the Republican party as we know it today will be extinct by the 2024 elections at the latest.
As we know it, quite possibly. By then it will no longer be the southern white men party.
The simple reason is that with the massive demographic changes underway Democrats have a virtual lock on the most important states.
Like what? Ohio?
Once Texas becomes a swing state its O-V-E-R for Republicans they will not win anymore elections.
No. Either Republicans will adapt to demographic changes or make up for it with wins elsewhere, like the Rust Belt. And don't underestimate the Republican machine in Texas. Democrats have not won a single statewide race there since 1994.
They will fracture and become two parties.
No. No. Absolutely not. This is pure wishful thinking. Did the Democratic party fracture in the 1870's? Did the Republican party fracture in the 1930's? The last time a party collapsed was in the years leading up to the greatest crisis in American history-the Civil War.
Democrats have a better than 80% chance to carry ALL of these states in the next 5 presidential elections.

California
New York
Illinois
Agreed on these three.
Pennsylvania
No. This state is inches away from the national tipping point, and with Colorado moving left it could easily be the tipping point in 2016 or 2020.
Florida (This state is going to be the next California for Democrats)
Absolutely not. The state is completely controlled by Republicans at the state level and has shown zero indication of moving left. Any assumptions otherwise are pure fantasy.

Not to mention

Virginia
Moving left, yes, but still very much a swing state.
Nevada
Not a Democratic lock but this state is almost gone for Republicans.
Colorado
See Virginia.

Final point, the best candidate the Republicans have for 2016 is essentially a centrist democrat - Chris Christie and he is still going to lose to Hillary.
Remember the talk about McCain in 2005? Yeah. Look what happened. It is too far out to tell.

[ElectionsGuy]

Would people stop hyping this up? Please this is getting annoying and repulsive now. I'm sick of this "lock" bullsh*t that the democrats are doing now simply because they win a few presidential elections and the trend of the country favors them. The republicans also thought they had a "lock" after the 1984 election. Please tell me what happened to that. The notion that the republican party will die is overrated and hopeful thinking and speculation. No political party is going to die anytime soon if they both survived 1856-present day. Can we stop this?

[President von Cat]

The republicans also thought they had a "lock" after the 1984 election. Please tell me what happened to that.

They won again four years later.

[barfbag]

Idiots who think they have a lock on the electoral college are lying to themselves.

[sentinel]

Idiots who think they have a lock on the electoral college are lying to themselves.

Lolz no one has a lock on the electoral college. Some have a lock on losing the electoral college though (Socialist Party for example)