This is a technical rebound. The latest median forecast is still for Euro area GDP to fall 0.6% in 2013 whereas UK is expected to grow 1.0%. Still a long slog for Euro area to recover from the 2008 economic crisis.
It is more than a technical rebound. If you look at individual member states, you see divergent regional trends:
1. Growth in the
Baltics, which had seen substantial growth and unemployment decrease during the last years, is slowing down.
2.
Central Europe had already long ago recovered from the 2008 economic crisis (more than 1.6 million new jobs in Germany alone since December 2010), but appeared to plunge into another recession by the end of last years. That trend has reverted. The robust German labour market demonstrates that the growth here (+0.5) is more than just technical. Alongside Germany, growth in the Czech Republic (+0.7), Poland (+0.4), Slovakia (+0.3) and even Hungary (+0.1) is picking up as well. Figures for Denmark are not yet available, but I assume them also having grown.
3.
Scandinavia is pretty interesting. While non-Euro Sweden (and Norway) is stagnating, Finland is getting out of recession (+0.7). Apparently, the Euro helps to translate Central European growth impulses to them.
4.
Western Europe had been between stagnation (UK) and mild (France, Belgium) to moderate (Spain, Netherlands) recession. Now, growth has not only picked up in the UK (+ 0.6), but also in France (+0.5) and, most remarkably, in Portugal (+1.1). The recession continues, albeit at slower speed, in the Netherlands (-0.2) and in Spain (-0.1), Belgium is still stagnating. No data is yet available for Ireland, but the UK's economic upswing lets me assume a similar trend there.
5. In
south-eastern Europe, the plunge of Greece and Cyprus continues, even though first signs of recovery are getting visible for Greece. Bulgaria continues to stagnate, and growth in Romania is cooling down. Italy's economy is still shrinking, but at reduced speed (-0.2). It would be interesting to see how Slovenia and Croatia are doing in this regional context (Central European growth, Southeast European recession), however, no Q2 figures have been published for them yet.
The overall picture that emerges is a geographical shift. The US recovery is positively affecting Western and Central Europe, offsetting the slow-down in Eastern Europe and Russia. If the US pull continues, the UK should of course continue to benefit over proportion, but most Western European countries, especially France and Spain, should as well commence or continue recovery. Under such a scenario, the Euro-zone should see some growth in 2013.
What you call the impact of the 2008 crisis is in fact a recession in the Mediterranean (plus Ireland) that started in summer 2011, triggered by the Greek crisis, and enhanced by the "Arab Spring". The crisis is now gradually coming to its end, at least in the Western Mediterranean. Central Europe (plus the UK) never had a crisis, just a short dip into stagnation alongside the USA in late 2012, while parts of Eastern Europe, especially the Baltics, were booming.
