PolitiJunkie's 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions (Party, Not Candidate)

[PolitiJunkie]

I have had this spreadsheet with predictions for a few months now, and I change them as new events occur, new candidates announce, and the national mood shifts. I will continue to do so, and every time I make major changes, I will post a revised screenshot here. Discuss, debate, challenge, etc.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'd assume Cuomo's running for re-election.

Although If you want to run for President that isn't a safe strategy.

[PolitiJunkie]

I'd assume Cuomo's running for re-election.

Although If you want to run for President that isn't a safe strategy.

Technically he's unconfirmed, even though it's obvious.

[ElectionsGuy]

I have had this spreadsheet with predictions for a few months now, and I change them as new events occur, new candidates announce, and the national mood shifts. I will continue to do so, and every time I make major changes, I will post a revised screenshot here. Discuss, debate, challenge, etc.

That's a nice list there, but of course, I would like to make some considerations.

1. New Mexico likely R (she has outstanding approval ratings)
2. South Carolina Lean R/Likely R (Toss-Up? lol), Connecticut Lean D
3. Michigan, Florida still Toss-Up
4. Colorado Lean D (New Poll shows close competition)
5. Texas Safe R
5. Wisconsin Lean R (if NV, OH, and IA are Lean R, so is WI), otherwise move Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa to Likely R with Wisconsin.
6. Maine Lean D

That is all. I might consider Hawaii and Maryland Safe D since its nearly impossible for republicans to get elected in those states, but I haven't learned enough about the races. Oh well, feel free to criticize.

[PolitiJunkie]

I have had this spreadsheet with predictions for a few months now, and I change them as new events occur, new candidates announce, and the national mood shifts. I will continue to do so, and every time I make major changes, I will post a revised screenshot here. Discuss, debate, challenge, etc.

That's a nice list there, but of course, I would like to make some considerations.

1. New Mexico likely R (she has outstanding approval ratings)
2. South Carolina Lean R/Likely R (Toss-Up? lol), Connecticut Lean D
3. Michigan, Florida still Toss-Up
4. Colorado Lean D (New Poll shows close competition)
5. Texas Safe R
5. Wisconsin Lean R (if NV, OH, and IA are Lean R, so is WI), otherwise move Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa to Likely R with Wisconsin.
6. Maine Lean D

That is all. I might consider Hawaii and Maryland Safe D since its nearly impossible for republicans to get elected in those states, but I haven't learned enough about the races. Oh well, feel free to criticize.

None of your suggestions are unreasonable, but it's fun to justify my choices:

1. It's still NM and Martinez is still very conservative. The 2010 candidate was weak; if her opponent is good it can be competitive.
2. Sheheen is LEADING Haley in all polls so far. Not to mention Haley was elected by a razor thin margin in a deep red state in a deep red year. This can't be anything other than a toss up. Also Malloy is sooo unpopular and losing to Foley in polls.
3. Maybe but Scott and Snyder are just so toxic.
4. Perhaps, but I still think Hickenlooper has a very substantial edge.
5. At a point it seemed like a pickup was plausible, but now that it's Abbott and not Perry ill prolly move it to safe.
6. Walker has an edge over Sandoval, Martinez, and Kasich if his approvals decline again, but yeah all four of these straddle between likely and lean.
7. All three way polling besides Michaud's internals show LePage leading; all two-ways show him losing. With Cutler and Michaud both in this LePage can still very plausibly pull it out. Pure toss up until we see if either Cutler or Michaud can rally the whole base instead of splitting it.
8. In Hawaii Abercrombie is scary unpopular, and Maryland's Republican bench is strong. Both are considered likely D in most polling.

[PolitiJunkie]

9/5/13 CHANGES:

Colorado: Likely D --------> Lean D
Massachusetts: Lean D --------> Likely D
Illinois: Lean D --------> Toss-Up
Ohio: Lean R --------> Toss-Up
Iowa: Lean R --------> Likely R

[ElectionsGuy]

I have had this spreadsheet with predictions for a few months now, and I change them as new events occur, new candidates announce, and the national mood shifts. I will continue to do so, and every time I make major changes, I will post a revised screenshot here. Discuss, debate, challenge, etc.

That's a nice list there, but of course, I would like to make some considerations.

1. New Mexico likely R (she has outstanding approval ratings)
2. South Carolina Lean R/Likely R (Toss-Up? lol), Connecticut Lean D
3. Michigan, Florida still Toss-Up
4. Colorado Lean D (New Poll shows close competition)
5. Texas Safe R
5. Wisconsin Lean R (if NV, OH, and IA are Lean R, so is WI), otherwise move Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa to Likely R with Wisconsin.
6. Maine Lean D

That is all. I might consider Hawaii and Maryland Safe D since its nearly impossible for republicans to get elected in those states, but I haven't learned enough about the races. Oh well, feel free to criticize.

None of your suggestions are unreasonable, but it's fun to justify my choices:

1. It's still NM and Martinez is still very conservative. The 2010 candidate was weak; if her opponent is good it can be competitive.
2. Sheheen is LEADING Haley in all polls so far. Not to mention Haley was elected by a razor thin margin in a deep red state in a deep red year. This can't be anything other than a toss up. Also Malloy is sooo unpopular and losing to Foley in polls.
3. Maybe but Scott and Snyder are just so toxic.
4. Perhaps, but I still think Hickenlooper has a very substantial edge.
5. At a point it seemed like a pickup was plausible, but now that it's Abbott and not Perry ill prolly move it to safe.
6. Walker has an edge over Sandoval, Martinez, and Kasich if his approvals decline again, but yeah all four of these straddle between likely and lean.
7. All three way polling besides Michaud's internals show LePage leading; all two-ways show him losing. With Cutler and Michaud both in this LePage can still very plausibly pull it out. Pure toss up until we see if either Cutler or Michaud can rally the whole base instead of splitting it.
8. In Hawaii Abercrombie is scary unpopular, and Maryland's Republican bench is strong. Both are considered likely D in most polling.

1. OK, I suppose that's fine for now
2. Still despite the polls right now, the states electorate is powerful in both and most people aren't paying attention right now in the summer time SC-Toss-Up/Lean R. CT-Toss-Up/Lean D
3. Polls aren't good right now, but incumbent advantages make these two still toss-ups (against generic candidates).
4. Lean D period.
5. Abbott is running, Its been at least 20 years since any democrat has won statewide. Safe R
6. Fine either way Lean R/Likely R
7. I would either call it a Toss-Up or Lean D. Some polls have him leading by a tiny bit, some of them have Michaud leading by a tiny bit. I think the blue state will choose a blue candidate in the end (not to mention LePage is a gaffe-machine) but it depends how Cutler affects the race (in yet another 3-way race).
8. OK, both I suppose are Likely D.

[PolitiJunkie]

I have had this spreadsheet with predictions for a few months now, and I change them as new events occur, new candidates announce, and the national mood shifts. I will continue to do so, and every time I make major changes, I will post a revised screenshot here. Discuss, debate, challenge, etc.

That's a nice list there, but of course, I would like to make some considerations.

1. New Mexico likely R (she has outstanding approval ratings)
2. South Carolina Lean R/Likely R (Toss-Up? lol), Connecticut Lean D
3. Michigan, Florida still Toss-Up
4. Colorado Lean D (New Poll shows close competition)
5. Texas Safe R
5. Wisconsin Lean R (if NV, OH, and IA are Lean R, so is WI), otherwise move Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa to Likely R with Wisconsin.
6. Maine Lean D

That is all. I might consider Hawaii and Maryland Safe D since its nearly impossible for republicans to get elected in those states, but I haven't learned enough about the races. Oh well, feel free to criticize.

None of your suggestions are unreasonable, but it's fun to justify my choices:

1. It's still NM and Martinez is still very conservative. The 2010 candidate was weak; if her opponent is good it can be competitive.
2. Sheheen is LEADING Haley in all polls so far. Not to mention Haley was elected by a razor thin margin in a deep red state in a deep red year. This can't be anything other than a toss up. Also Malloy is sooo unpopular and losing to Foley in polls.
3. Maybe but Scott and Snyder are just so toxic.
4. Perhaps, but I still think Hickenlooper has a very substantial edge.
5. At a point it seemed like a pickup was plausible, but now that it's Abbott and not Perry ill prolly move it to safe.
6. Walker has an edge over Sandoval, Martinez, and Kasich if his approvals decline again, but yeah all four of these straddle between likely and lean.
7. All three way polling besides Michaud's internals show LePage leading; all two-ways show him losing. With Cutler and Michaud both in this LePage can still very plausibly pull it out. Pure toss up until we see if either Cutler or Michaud can rally the whole base instead of splitting it.
8. In Hawaii Abercrombie is scary unpopular, and Maryland's Republican bench is strong. Both are considered likely D in most polling.

1. OK, I suppose that's fine for now
2. Still despite the polls right now, the states electorate is powerful in both and most people aren't paying attention right now in the summer time SC-Toss-Up/Lean R. CT-Toss-Up/Lean D
3. Polls aren't good right now, but incumbent advantages make these two still toss-ups (against generic candidates).
4. Lean D period.
5. Abbott is running, Its been at least 20 years since any democrat has won statewide. Safe R
6. Fine either way Lean R/Likely R
7. I would either call it a Toss-Up or Lean D. Some polls have him leading by a tiny bit, some of them have Michaud leading by a tiny bit. I think the blue state will choose a blue candidate in the end (not to mention LePage is a gaffe-machine) but it depends how Cutler affects the race (in yet another 3-way race).
8. OK, both I suppose are Likely D.

Just so you know, I've moved Colorado to Lean D. I'm leaving Maine, South Carolina, and Connecticut as toss-ups, but I think your arguments for each are reasonable and the possibility that Michaud, Haley, and Malloy all come out victorious is certainly plausible.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just so you know, I've moved Colorado to Lean D. I'm leaving Maine, South Carolina, and Connecticut as toss-ups, but I think your arguments for each are reasonable and the possibility that Michaud, Haley, and Malloy all come out victorious is certainly plausible.

Alright then, we're good.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think Connecticut is Lean D, albeit slightly.  Democratic incumbents losing reelection at a state level is almost unheard of, and polls taken here aren't usually very good.

[GAworth]

Agree on Georgia. It would take a lot for GA to go Democratic

[LeBron]

I agree on most of that especially moving Ohio and Illinois to tossups given the current standings with both of those. Although Nevada and Kansas seem a little bit out of order.

Nevada's polling shows Sandoval beating any plausible Democratic opponent by double digits. He is a Republican in a state that leans Democratic, but granted, is certainly moderate enough to easily win re-election. It's probably a likely Republican hold rather than lean R.

And Kansas might seem like a solid Republican hold, but his approval is really low and if someone who could be competitive against him like Carl Brewer decides to run, this race could get interesting. It's certainly not a lean R, but maybe a likely Republican now from safe.

[PolitiJunkie]

I agree on most of that especially moving Ohio and Illinois to tossups given the current standings with both of those. Although Nevada and Kansas seem a little bit out of order.

Nevada's polling shows Sandoval beating any plausible Democratic opponent by double digits. He is a Republican in a state that leans Democratic, but granted, is certainly moderate enough to easily win re-election. It's probably a likely Republican hold rather than lean R.

And Kansas might seem like a solid Republican hold, but his approval is really low and if someone who could be competitive against him like Carl Brewer decides to run, this race could get interesting. It's certainly not a lean R, but maybe a likely Republican now from safe.

Brewer has declined to run, as have most of the other candidates that would keep the race in single digits. I get that Brownback is unpopular and all, but with Kansas being as red as it as and no strong Democrat running, I'm keeping this at Safe R. Nevada and New Mexico will probably move to Likely R soon, but I just want to wait and see what happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinn will close the gap in Illinois eventually as he picks a Lt gov. Co and Ohio are the states to watch out for as each might change places.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If Perry had ran again, he likely would have WON by double digits (57-39 over Davis).

Now that he's retiring, I still say Abbott wins BIG over whoever the Democrats nominate (likely Davis): 65-33

[PolitiJunkie]

9/13/13 CHANGES:

Texas: Likely R -------> Safe R

[ElectionsGuy]

If Perry had ran again, he likely would have WON by double digits (57-39 over Davis).

Now that he's retiring, I still say Abbott wins BIG over whoever the Democrats nominate (likely Davis): 65-33

I don't think it will be that big. I mean this is Texas, its safe, but not ultra super duper safe. Not even George W. Bush could get that big of a win in 2004 (but he did get 68% in 1998 gubernatorial election). If I would have to predict right now, something like 59-40 seems reasonable.

[pbrower2a]

I have had this spreadsheet with predictions for a few months now, and I change them as new events occur, new candidates announce, and the national mood shifts. I will continue to do so, and every time I make major changes, I will post a revised screenshot here. Discuss, debate, challenge, etc.

That's a nice list there, but of course, I would like to make some considerations.

1. New Mexico likely R (she has outstanding approval ratings)
2. South Carolina Lean R/Likely R (Toss-Up? lol), Connecticut Lean D
3. Michigan, Florida still Toss-Up
4. Colorado Lean D (New Poll shows close competition)
5. Texas Safe R
5. Wisconsin Lean R (if NV, OH, and IA are Lean R, so is WI), otherwise move Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa to Likely R with Wisconsin.
6. Maine Lean D

That is all. I might consider Hawaii and Maryland Safe D since its nearly impossible for republicans to get elected in those states, but I haven't learned enough about the races. Oh well, feel free to criticize.

The incumbent Governors of Florida and Michigan are extremely unpopular in states that go about 50-50 in normal elections. The Governors of Ohio and Wisconsin goes do if the Democrats have effective GOTV program in those states.

Texas has effectively a single-Party system, and the chance of a Democrat winning the Governorship is about as likely as the SED losing a meaningful election in East Germany between 1950 and 1988, no matter how unpopular it is. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk Dillard who will face Daley or Quinn committed a gaffe in tv today. He said it will hurt business to raise min wage.

[PolitiJunkie]

10/8/13 Changes:

Nevada: Lean R ---> Likely R
New Mexico: Lean R ---> Likely R
South Carolina: Toss-Up ---> Lean R
Florida: Lean D ---> Toss-Up

Pondered moving Wisconsin from Likely R to Lean R, and moving Connecticut from Toss-Up to Lean D, but I decided against both. I will keep my eyes open though.

Updated Image:

[ElectionsGuy]

10/8/13 Changes:

Nevada: Lean R ---> Likely R
New Mexico: Lean R ---> Likely R
South Carolina: Toss-Up ---> Lean R
Florida: Lean D ---> Toss-Up

Pondered moving Wisconsin from Likely R to Lean R, and moving Connecticut from Toss-Up to Lean D, but I decided against both. I will keep my eyes open though.

Updated Image:

Looks Good.

[publicunofficial]

10/8/13 Changes:

Nevada: Lean R ---> Likely R
New Mexico: Lean R ---> Likely R
South Carolina: Toss-Up ---> Lean R
Florida: Lean D ---> Toss-Up

Pondered moving Wisconsin from Likely R to Lean R, and moving Connecticut from Toss-Up to Lean D, but I decided against both. I will keep my eyes open though.

Updated Image:

What development made you shift Florida to Toss-Up?

[PolitiJunkie]

10/8/13 Changes:

Nevada: Lean R ---> Likely R
New Mexico: Lean R ---> Likely R
South Carolina: Toss-Up ---> Lean R
Florida: Lean D ---> Toss-Up

Pondered moving Wisconsin from Likely R to Lean R, and moving Connecticut from Toss-Up to Lean D, but I decided against both. I will keep my eyes open though.

Updated Image:

What development made you shift Florida to Toss-Up?

Not so much a development as realizing that I never really should have placed it in Lean D in the first place. If Crist enters, it will probably go back to Lean D, but it's not a sure thing.

[PolitiJunkie]

10/13/13 Changes:

Georgia: Likely R ---> Lean R

[ElectionsGuy]

I made a similar table in Excel here similar to yours.



Let me know if you have any concerns about these. There's a few here I'm debating. Like whether Wisconsin is is Lean R or Likely R or whether Rhode Island is Likely D or Safe D. Mostly though the reason why there are so many "Likely D's" and not as many "Safe D's" is because of Open Seats (MD, MA, RI) and unpopular incumbents (HI), the rest (MN, NH) are normal.