Alaska: Anchorage a good bellwether? + Examination of boroughs
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Author Topic: Alaska: Anchorage a good bellwether? + Examination of boroughs  (Read 2653 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: August 17, 2013, 01:50:52 AM »
« edited: August 17, 2013, 02:49:19 AM by Waukesha County »

As far as we know Anchorage voted 50-60% Romney and 50-60% McCain. Alaska voted 50-60% Romney and 50-60% McCain. And since I have yet to find specific precinct results for Alaska (2012 presidential election, that is) its safest to assume that Anchorage is a bellwether for Alaska. It was probably high 50's in 2008 and mid 50's in 2012. It could also be lower than that (mid 50's and low 50's?) but still in the 50's for Romney/McCain.

I also read somewhere that the heavily republican Matanuska-Susitna Borough voted 77% McCain, so it probably voted low 70's Romney. Also since the Fairbanks-North Star Borough voted 60-70% McCain and 50-60% Romney, its likely that it was in the high 50's for Romney.

Anyway, with all this, its easy to see why Alaska is a pretty red state. Matanuska-Susitna makes up 12.5% of the population. The other republican suburban area, the Kenai Peninsula Borough, went 60-70% R both times, which makes up 7.8% of the population. The Fairbanks North Star Borough, which makes up 13.7% of the population, went high 50's/low 60's for republicans. And last of all, Anchorage, which makes up 41.1% of state population, likely goes with the state %. The rest of the state (24.9%) including Juneau (4.4%) has a democratic tilt to it (at least as of 2012).

So what do you think of all this?

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2013, 04:05:19 AM »

Anchorage is not far off the state mean in terms of how it votes (as a whole, including the MatSu like burbs in the northeast of the official city-borough), but it's not a bellwether in that the state doesn't swing reasonably uniformly or anything.

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/ei_return_2012_GENR.php
Was this hard to find?

Also this thread
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164339.0

(the map on wikipedia is evidently based on my math here!)

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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2013, 05:39:43 AM »
« Edited: August 17, 2013, 05:42:51 AM by FBF »

If I can recall correctly, isn't Ancorage a little erratic in it's voting patterns?  I seem to recall that Begich lost it when he unseated Stevens in the 2008 senate race.  That same year, Obama got more than 40% of the vote there, while losing the state 59%-38%.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2013, 06:39:00 AM »

If I can recall correctly, isn't Ancorage a little erratic in it's voting patterns?  I seem to recall that Begich lost it when he unseated Stevens in the 2008 senate race.  That same year, Obama got more than 40% of the vote there, while losing the state 59%-38%.

It probably has something to do with the Palin effect.

Remember, Alaska was one of the several red states that Obama was doing really well in prior to the Palin pick at least, along with MT, ND, and SD.

I think that some of Palin's intraparty actions may have had slightly negative impact on the Anchorage results relative to the rest of the state, where Palin had strong pull, especailly in places like Mat-su. If Begich lost the city, then such would indicate an affinity for the old school, establishment Republicans like Stevens, Murkowski etc, which Palin was at war with.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2013, 02:12:17 PM »

Anchorage is not far off the state mean in terms of how it votes (as a whole, including the MatSu like burbs in the northeast of the official city-borough), but it's not a bellwether in that the state doesn't swing reasonably uniformly or anything.

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/ei_return_2012_GENR.php
Was this hard to find?

Also this thread
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164339.0

(the map on wikipedia is evidently based on my math here!)



No, its not hard to find simple precinct results, but it is hard to find easy-to-read precinct results. Thanks for the map also! I would think based on the % of population in Anchorage, and how right wings some of the suburbs are, that Anchorage would be a little bit less Romney than the state itself.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2013, 02:51:57 PM »

No, its not hard to find simple precinct results, but it is hard to find easy-to-read precinct results. Thanks for the map also! I would think based on the % of population in Anchorage, and how right wings some of the suburbs are, that Anchorage would be a little bit less Romney than the state itself.

Also bear in mind how much land area is in the City of Anchorage proper. It contains a large amount of places that would be suburbs in most metropolitan areas within the city limits. I'd imagine the denser urban core part of Anchorage is significantly more Democratic than the city as a whole.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2013, 03:50:58 PM »

No, its not hard to find simple precinct results, but it is hard to find easy-to-read precinct results. Thanks for the map also! I would think based on the % of population in Anchorage, and how right wings some of the suburbs are, that Anchorage would be a little bit less Romney than the state itself.

Also bear in mind how much land area is in the City of Anchorage proper. It contains a large amount of places that would be suburbs in most metropolitan areas within the city limits. I'd imagine the denser urban core part of Anchorage is significantly more Democratic than the city as a whole.

Yes it is. The Northern and Western Parts are much like the Matanuska-Susitna borough while the Core and Center of the city vote like a typical city, but still less so. Really in Alaska the urban areas and suburbs are more conservative because they are more white. And Anchorage as a whole is still as white as the state.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2013, 08:14:38 AM »

Here are the presidential election numbers/percentages and racial demographics (according to 2010 U.S. Census) from the Alaska boroughs in 2008 that I found. Hope this helps you. 

• Aleutians East Borough (3,141): McCain 66.53% - Obama 29.48% - Baldwin 1.79% - Nader 1.20% - Barr 1.00% = R+ 37.05
[35.98% Asian; 27.89% Native; 21.01% White; 12.26% Hispanic/Latino; 6.97% Black; 4.87% Multiracial; 2.67% Others; 0.60% Pacific Islander]


• Anchorage Consolidated City/Borough (291,826): McCain 60.68% - Obama 36.95% - Nader 1.09% - Barr 0.44% - Baldwin 0.29% - Others 0.54% = R+ 23.73
[65.96% White; 8.10% Multiracial; 8.08% Asian; 7.93% Native; 7.56% Hispanic/Latino; 5.56% Black; 2.35% Others; 2.02% Pacific Islander]


• Bristol Bay Borough (997): McCain 70.44% - Obama 26.22% - Nader 1.80% - Barr 0.77% - Baldwin 0.51% - Others 0.26% = R+ 44.22
[48.24% White; 33.50% Native; 16.75% Multiracial; 2.41% Hispanic/Latino; 0.80% Asian; 0.40% Others; 0.30% Pacific Islander; 0.00% Black]


• Denali Borough (1,826): McCain 61.85% - Obama 34.32% - Nader 2.44% - Baldwin 0.70% - Barr 0.17% - Others 0.52% = R+ 27.53
[89.65% White; 4.38% Multiracial; 3.56% Native; 2.30% Hispanic/Latino; 1.04% Asian; 0.77% Others; 0.55% Black; 0.05% Pacific Islander]


• Fairbanks North Star Borough (97,581): McCain 66.70% - Obama 30.43% - Nader 1.01% - Barr 0.61% - Baldwin 0.59% - Others 0.65% = R+ 36.27
[77.04% White; 7.05% Native; 6.84% Multiracial; 5.79% Hispanic/Latino; 4.53% Black; 2.66% Asian; 1.48% Others; 0.41% Pacific Islander]


• Haines Consolidated City/Borough (2,508): McCain 53.01% - Obama 43.31% - Nader 1.44% - Baldwin 1.35% - Barr 0.45% - Others 0.45% = R+ 9.70
[83.17% White; 9.17% Native; 5.86% Multiracial; 1.87% Hispanic/Latino; 0.84% Others; 0.56% Asian; 0.40% Black; 0.00% Pacific Islander]


• Juneau Consolidated City/Borough (31,275): Obama 54.40% - McCain 42.18% - Nader 1.66% - Baldwin 0.69% - Barr 0.63% - Others 0.44% = D+ 12.22
[69.75% White; 11.80% Native; 9.49% Multiracial; 6.14% Asian; 5.08% Hispanic/Latino; 1.23% Others; 0.89% Black; 0.70% Pacific Islander]


• Kenai Peninsula Borough (55,400): McCain 70.75% - Obama 26.13% - Nader 1.56% - Baldwin 0.58% - Barr 0.49% - Others 0.49% = R+ 44.62
[84.58% White; 7.37% Native; 5.61% Multiracial; 2.96% Hispanic/Latino; 1.14% Asian; 0.61% Others; 0.49% Black; 0.21% Pacific Islander]


• Ketchikan Gateway Borough (13,477): McCain 61.28% - Obama 35.67% - Nader 1.23% - Baldwin 0.81% - Barr 0.51% - Others 0.51% = R+ 25.61
[68.09% White; 14.17% Native; 9.28% Multiracial; 7.00% Asian; 3.99% Hispanic/Latino; 0.69% Others; 0.58% Black; 0.20% Pacific Islander]


• Kodiak Island Borough (13,592): McCain 64.12% - Obama 32.85% - Nader 1.38% - Baldwin 0.56% - Barr 0.48% - Others 0.61% = R+ 31.27
[55.34% White; 19.57% Asian; 13.22% Native; 7.63% Multiracial; 7.33% Hispanic/Latino; 2.92% Others; 0.68% Black; 0.64% Pacific Islander]


• Lake & Peninsula Borough (1,631): McCain 60.74% - Obama 35.58% - Baldwin 1.23% - Nader 1.23% - Barr 0.31% - Others 0.92% = R+ 25.16
[65.05% Native; 23.30% White; 10.06% Multiracial; 2.64% Hispanic/Latino; 0.55% Black; 0.37% Asian; 0.37% Others; 0.31% Pacific Islander]


• Matanutska-Susitna Borough (88,995): McCain 76.85% - Obama 20.40% - Nader 1.24% - Baldwin 0.50% - Barr 0.41% - Others 0.60% = R+ 56.45
[84.88% White; 6.45% Multiracial; 5.51% Native; 3.71% Hispanic/Latino; 1.23% Asian; 0.96% Black; 0.72% Others; 0.25% Pacific Islander]


• North Slope Borough (9,430): McCain 52.80% - Obama 43.43% - Baldwin 1.50% - Nader 1.45% - Barr 0.57% - Others 0.26% = R+ 9.37
[54.08% Native; 33.37% White; 5.23% Multiracial; 4.51% Asian; 2.64% Hispanic/Latino; 1.10% Pacific Islander; 1.00% Black; 0.71% Others]


• Northwest Arctic Borough (7,523): McCain 56.23% - Obama 39.88% - Baldwin 2.02% - Nader 0.93% - Barr 0.67% - Others 0.26% = R+ 16.35
[81.36% Native; 11.25% White; 5.96% Multiracial; 0.77% Hispanic/Latino; 0.56% Asian; 0.49% Black; 0.23% Others; 0.16% Pacific Islander]


• Sitka Consolidated City/Borough (8,881): Obama 49.44% - McCain 47.31% - Nader 1.69% - Baldwin 0.53% - Barr 0.44% - Others 0.59% = D+ 2.13
[65.29% White; 16.81% Native; 9.81% Multiracial; 5.96% Asian; 4.92% Hispanic/Latino; 1.27% Others; 0.53% Black; 0.34% Pacific Islander]


• Skagway Consolidated City/Borough (968): Obama 54.45% - McCain 39.44% - Nader 3.56% - Baldwin 1.27% - Barr 0.51% - Others 0.76% = D+ 15.01
[91.43% White; 4.03% Multiracial; 3.51% Native; 2.17% Hispanic/Latino; 0.52% Asian; 0.41% Others; 0.10% Pacific Islander; 0.00% Black]


• Unorganized Borough (78,149): McCain 53.96% - Obama 42.46% - Baldwin 1.31% - Nader 1.27% - Barr 0.60% - Others 0.40% = R+ 11.50
[54.44% Native; 34.64% White; 5.85% Multiracial; 3.17% Asian; 2.70% Hispanic/Latino; 0.80% Others; 0.78% Black; 0.32% Pacific Islander]


• Wrangell-Petersburg Borough (6,184): McCain 61.54% - Obama 35.29% - Nader 1.40% - Baldwin 0.86% - Barr 0.59% - Others 0.32% = R+ 26.25
[71.64% White; 16.14% Native; 8.88% Multiracial; 2.70% Hispanic/Latino; 2.15% Asian; 0.76% Others; 0.31% Black; 0.13% Pacific Islander]


• Yakutat Consolidated City/Borough (662): Obama 49.03% - McCain 47.08% - Nader 1.95% - Baldwin 1.17% - Barr 0.39% - Others 0.39 = D+ 1.95
[42.45% White; 35.80% Native; 15.41% Multiracial; 4.08% Asian; 2.57% Hispanic/Latino; 1.81% Pacific Islander; 0.30% Black; 0.15% Others)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2013, 02:11:19 PM »

I think these are day-only. Since the 2000s 3rd and 4th district were identical in territory to the city of Juneau as it stood then, we know the correct 2008 result for Juneau, and it's 56.0% to 40.9%.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2013, 02:11:49 PM »

Here are the presidential election numbers/percentages and racial demographics (according to 2010 U.S. Census) from the Alaska boroughs in 2008 that I found. Hope this helps you. 

• Aleutians East Borough (3,141): McCain 66.53% - Obama 29.48% - Baldwin 1.79% - Nader 1.20% - Barr 1.00% = R+ 37.05
[35.98% Asian; 27.89% Native; 21.01% White; 12.26% Hispanic/Latino; 6.97% Black; 4.87% Multiracial; 2.67% Others; 0.60% Pacific Islander]


• Anchorage Consolidated City/Borough (291,826): McCain 60.68% - Obama 36.95% - Nader 1.09% - Barr 0.44% - Baldwin 0.29% - Others 0.54% = R+ 23.73
[65.96% White; 8.10% Multiracial; 8.08% Asian; 7.93% Native; 7.56% Hispanic/Latino; 5.56% Black; 2.35% Others; 2.02% Pacific Islander]


• Bristol Bay Borough (997): McCain 70.44% - Obama 26.22% - Nader 1.80% - Barr 0.77% - Baldwin 0.51% - Others 0.26% = R+ 44.22
[48.24% White; 33.50% Native; 16.75% Multiracial; 2.41% Hispanic/Latino; 0.80% Asian; 0.40% Others; 0.30% Pacific Islander; 0.00% Black]


• Denali Borough (1,826): McCain 61.85% - Obama 34.32% - Nader 2.44% - Baldwin 0.70% - Barr 0.17% - Others 0.52% = R+ 27.53
[89.65% White; 4.38% Multiracial; 3.56% Native; 2.30% Hispanic/Latino; 1.04% Asian; 0.77% Others; 0.55% Black; 0.05% Pacific Islander]


• Fairbanks North Star Borough (97,581): McCain 66.70% - Obama 30.43% - Nader 1.01% - Barr 0.61% - Baldwin 0.59% - Others 0.65% = R+ 36.27
[77.04% White; 7.05% Native; 6.84% Multiracial; 5.79% Hispanic/Latino; 4.53% Black; 2.66% Asian; 1.48% Others; 0.41% Pacific Islander]


• Haines Consolidated City/Borough (2,508): McCain 53.01% - Obama 43.31% - Nader 1.44% - Baldwin 1.35% - Barr 0.45% - Others 0.45% = R+ 9.70
[83.17% White; 9.17% Native; 5.86% Multiracial; 1.87% Hispanic/Latino; 0.84% Others; 0.56% Asian; 0.40% Black; 0.00% Pacific Islander]


• Juneau Consolidated City/Borough (31,275): Obama 54.40% - McCain 42.18% - Nader 1.66% - Baldwin 0.69% - Barr 0.63% - Others 0.44% = D+ 12.22
[69.75% White; 11.80% Native; 9.49% Multiracial; 6.14% Asian; 5.08% Hispanic/Latino; 1.23% Others; 0.89% Black; 0.70% Pacific Islander]


• Kenai Peninsula Borough (55,400): McCain 70.75% - Obama 26.13% - Nader 1.56% - Baldwin 0.58% - Barr 0.49% - Others 0.49% = R+ 44.62
[84.58% White; 7.37% Native; 5.61% Multiracial; 2.96% Hispanic/Latino; 1.14% Asian; 0.61% Others; 0.49% Black; 0.21% Pacific Islander]


• Ketchikan Gateway Borough (13,477): McCain 61.28% - Obama 35.67% - Nader 1.23% - Baldwin 0.81% - Barr 0.51% - Others 0.51% = R+ 25.61
[68.09% White; 14.17% Native; 9.28% Multiracial; 7.00% Asian; 3.99% Hispanic/Latino; 0.69% Others; 0.58% Black; 0.20% Pacific Islander]


• Kodiak Island Borough (13,592): McCain 64.12% - Obama 32.85% - Nader 1.38% - Baldwin 0.56% - Barr 0.48% - Others 0.61% = R+ 31.27
[55.34% White; 19.57% Asian; 13.22% Native; 7.63% Multiracial; 7.33% Hispanic/Latino; 2.92% Others; 0.68% Black; 0.64% Pacific Islander]


• Lake & Peninsula Borough (1,631): McCain 60.74% - Obama 35.58% - Baldwin 1.23% - Nader 1.23% - Barr 0.31% - Others 0.92% = R+ 25.16
[65.05% Native; 23.30% White; 10.06% Multiracial; 2.64% Hispanic/Latino; 0.55% Black; 0.37% Asian; 0.37% Others; 0.31% Pacific Islander]


• Matanutska-Susitna Borough (88,995): McCain 76.85% - Obama 20.40% - Nader 1.24% - Baldwin 0.50% - Barr 0.41% - Others 0.60% = R+ 56.45
[84.88% White; 6.45% Multiracial; 5.51% Native; 3.71% Hispanic/Latino; 1.23% Asian; 0.96% Black; 0.72% Others; 0.25% Pacific Islander]


• North Slope Borough (9,430): McCain 52.80% - Obama 43.43% - Baldwin 1.50% - Nader 1.45% - Barr 0.57% - Others 0.26% = R+ 9.37
[54.08% Native; 33.37% White; 5.23% Multiracial; 4.51% Asian; 2.64% Hispanic/Latino; 1.10% Pacific Islander; 1.00% Black; 0.71% Others]


• Northwest Arctic Borough (7,523): McCain 56.23% - Obama 39.88% - Baldwin 2.02% - Nader 0.93% - Barr 0.67% - Others 0.26% = R+ 16.35
[81.36% Native; 11.25% White; 5.96% Multiracial; 0.77% Hispanic/Latino; 0.56% Asian; 0.49% Black; 0.23% Others; 0.16% Pacific Islander]


• Sitka Consolidated City/Borough (8,881): Obama 49.44% - McCain 47.31% - Nader 1.69% - Baldwin 0.53% - Barr 0.44% - Others 0.59% = D+ 2.13
[65.29% White; 16.81% Native; 9.81% Multiracial; 5.96% Asian; 4.92% Hispanic/Latino; 1.27% Others; 0.53% Black; 0.34% Pacific Islander]


• Skagway Consolidated City/Borough (968): Obama 54.45% - McCain 39.44% - Nader 3.56% - Baldwin 1.27% - Barr 0.51% - Others 0.76% = D+ 15.01
[91.43% White; 4.03% Multiracial; 3.51% Native; 2.17% Hispanic/Latino; 0.52% Asian; 0.41% Others; 0.10% Pacific Islander; 0.00% Black]


• Unorganized Borough (78,149): McCain 53.96% - Obama 42.46% - Baldwin 1.31% - Nader 1.27% - Barr 0.60% - Others 0.40% = R+ 11.50
[54.44% Native; 34.64% White; 5.85% Multiracial; 3.17% Asian; 2.70% Hispanic/Latino; 0.80% Others; 0.78% Black; 0.32% Pacific Islander]


• Wrangell-Petersburg Borough (6,184): McCain 61.54% - Obama 35.29% - Nader 1.40% - Baldwin 0.86% - Barr 0.59% - Others 0.32% = R+ 26.25
[71.64% White; 16.14% Native; 8.88% Multiracial; 2.70% Hispanic/Latino; 2.15% Asian; 0.76% Others; 0.31% Black; 0.13% Pacific Islander]


• Yakutat Consolidated City/Borough (662): Obama 49.03% - McCain 47.08% - Nader 1.95% - Baldwin 1.17% - Barr 0.39% - Others 0.39 = D+ 1.95
[42.45% White; 35.80% Native; 15.41% Multiracial; 4.08% Asian; 2.57% Hispanic/Latino; 1.81% Pacific Islander; 0.30% Black; 0.15% Others)


This is really helpful, thanks! I can't wait till the day where we have county/borough results for Alaska with official results, if we ever have it.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2013, 02:22:20 AM »

With This and This I can tell.

I did two calculations, one with all house districts 12-27 (all the districts completely inside Anchorage), and one with house districts 11-27. House District 11 is involved in Anchorage, but it most (I would say 65%) of the population in that district is in Matanuska-Susitna.

Districts 12-27:

Romney: 63,989 (53.0%)
Obama: 53,110 (44.0%)
Others: 3,575 (3.0%)

Districts 11-17:

Romney: 70,046 (54.2%)
Obama: 55,332 (43.0%)
Others: 3,825 (2.8%)

Conclusion: Romney is somewhere between 53.0-54.2% in Anchorage, likely closer to 53.0% than 54.2%. Obama is somewhere in between 44.0% and 43.0% (closer to 44.0%, again). Obama excels in the Northern part of the "city" part of the Municipality. Romney won in the southern part of the "city" part of the Municipality. Generally margins are much more moderate in this city than in most American cities. In the suburban western and northern parts of the municipality, Romney won overwhelmingly, basically an extension of Matanuska-Susitna.

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The Free North
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2013, 06:07:15 PM »

Dont mean to be blunt, but Anchorage is a good bellwether because over 1/3rd of the state lives there
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barfbag
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2013, 06:10:40 PM »

Dont mean to be blunt, but Anchorage is a good bellwether because over 1/3rd of the state lives there

That's a good point.  I still don't think Alaska will move any further to the middle than likely Republican or light red though.
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The Free North
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2013, 06:12:08 PM »

Dont mean to be blunt, but Anchorage is a good bellwether because over 1/3rd of the state lives there

That's a good point.  I still don't think Alaska will move any further to the middle than likely Republican or light red though.

I'm not arguing either way, simply pointing out that its pretty obvious that Anchorage will go the way the rest of the state goes given the cities large population.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2013, 05:05:00 PM »

Dont mean to be blunt, but Anchorage is a good bellwether because over 1/3rd of the state lives there

OK, a decent point, but sort of wrong. New York City is >40% of the population of New York and yet it went 81% for Obama when the state went 63% for him. Anchorage also has >40% of the population, but it doesn't mean its always a good bellwether. What it means is that it has a huge impact on how the state votes. That section of the state and the rest could vote entirely different, but they still hold a huge impact on each other. True, the bigger a city is of the state (% wise) it has a greater chance of being a bellwether in probability but its not always true. The reason I thought Anchorage was a good bellwether is because I've seen maps that have it 50-60% republican each time when the state was 50-60% republican, not necessarily because it makes up a huge portion of the states population.
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JacobNC
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2013, 05:11:10 PM »

Here are the presidential election numbers/percentages and racial demographics (according to 2010 U.S. Census) from the Alaska boroughs in 2008 that I found. Hope this helps you. 

• Aleutians East Borough (3,141): McCain 66.53% - Obama 29.48% - Baldwin 1.79% - Nader 1.20% - Barr 1.00% = R+ 37.05
[35.98% Asian; 27.89% Native; 21.01% White; 12.26% Hispanic/Latino; 6.97% Black; 4.87% Multiracial; 2.67% Others; 0.60% Pacific Islander]


• Anchorage Consolidated City/Borough (291,826): McCain 60.68% - Obama 36.95% - Nader 1.09% - Barr 0.44% - Baldwin 0.29% - Others 0.54% = R+ 23.73
[65.96% White; 8.10% Multiracial; 8.08% Asian; 7.93% Native; 7.56% Hispanic/Latino; 5.56% Black; 2.35% Others; 2.02% Pacific Islander]


• Bristol Bay Borough (997): McCain 70.44% - Obama 26.22% - Nader 1.80% - Barr 0.77% - Baldwin 0.51% - Others 0.26% = R+ 44.22
[48.24% White; 33.50% Native; 16.75% Multiracial; 2.41% Hispanic/Latino; 0.80% Asian; 0.40% Others; 0.30% Pacific Islander; 0.00% Black]


• Denali Borough (1,826): McCain 61.85% - Obama 34.32% - Nader 2.44% - Baldwin 0.70% - Barr 0.17% - Others 0.52% = R+ 27.53
[89.65% White; 4.38% Multiracial; 3.56% Native; 2.30% Hispanic/Latino; 1.04% Asian; 0.77% Others; 0.55% Black; 0.05% Pacific Islander]


• Fairbanks North Star Borough (97,581): McCain 66.70% - Obama 30.43% - Nader 1.01% - Barr 0.61% - Baldwin 0.59% - Others 0.65% = R+ 36.27
[77.04% White; 7.05% Native; 6.84% Multiracial; 5.79% Hispanic/Latino; 4.53% Black; 2.66% Asian; 1.48% Others; 0.41% Pacific Islander]


• Haines Consolidated City/Borough (2,508): McCain 53.01% - Obama 43.31% - Nader 1.44% - Baldwin 1.35% - Barr 0.45% - Others 0.45% = R+ 9.70
[83.17% White; 9.17% Native; 5.86% Multiracial; 1.87% Hispanic/Latino; 0.84% Others; 0.56% Asian; 0.40% Black; 0.00% Pacific Islander]


• Juneau Consolidated City/Borough (31,275): Obama 54.40% - McCain 42.18% - Nader 1.66% - Baldwin 0.69% - Barr 0.63% - Others 0.44% = D+ 12.22
[69.75% White; 11.80% Native; 9.49% Multiracial; 6.14% Asian; 5.08% Hispanic/Latino; 1.23% Others; 0.89% Black; 0.70% Pacific Islander]


• Kenai Peninsula Borough (55,400): McCain 70.75% - Obama 26.13% - Nader 1.56% - Baldwin 0.58% - Barr 0.49% - Others 0.49% = R+ 44.62
[84.58% White; 7.37% Native; 5.61% Multiracial; 2.96% Hispanic/Latino; 1.14% Asian; 0.61% Others; 0.49% Black; 0.21% Pacific Islander]


• Ketchikan Gateway Borough (13,477): McCain 61.28% - Obama 35.67% - Nader 1.23% - Baldwin 0.81% - Barr 0.51% - Others 0.51% = R+ 25.61
[68.09% White; 14.17% Native; 9.28% Multiracial; 7.00% Asian; 3.99% Hispanic/Latino; 0.69% Others; 0.58% Black; 0.20% Pacific Islander]


• Kodiak Island Borough (13,592): McCain 64.12% - Obama 32.85% - Nader 1.38% - Baldwin 0.56% - Barr 0.48% - Others 0.61% = R+ 31.27
[55.34% White; 19.57% Asian; 13.22% Native; 7.63% Multiracial; 7.33% Hispanic/Latino; 2.92% Others; 0.68% Black; 0.64% Pacific Islander]


• Lake & Peninsula Borough (1,631): McCain 60.74% - Obama 35.58% - Baldwin 1.23% - Nader 1.23% - Barr 0.31% - Others 0.92% = R+ 25.16
[65.05% Native; 23.30% White; 10.06% Multiracial; 2.64% Hispanic/Latino; 0.55% Black; 0.37% Asian; 0.37% Others; 0.31% Pacific Islander]


• Matanutska-Susitna Borough (88,995): McCain 76.85% - Obama 20.40% - Nader 1.24% - Baldwin 0.50% - Barr 0.41% - Others 0.60% = R+ 56.45
[84.88% White; 6.45% Multiracial; 5.51% Native; 3.71% Hispanic/Latino; 1.23% Asian; 0.96% Black; 0.72% Others; 0.25% Pacific Islander]


• North Slope Borough (9,430): McCain 52.80% - Obama 43.43% - Baldwin 1.50% - Nader 1.45% - Barr 0.57% - Others 0.26% = R+ 9.37
[54.08% Native; 33.37% White; 5.23% Multiracial; 4.51% Asian; 2.64% Hispanic/Latino; 1.10% Pacific Islander; 1.00% Black; 0.71% Others]


• Northwest Arctic Borough (7,523): McCain 56.23% - Obama 39.88% - Baldwin 2.02% - Nader 0.93% - Barr 0.67% - Others 0.26% = R+ 16.35
[81.36% Native; 11.25% White; 5.96% Multiracial; 0.77% Hispanic/Latino; 0.56% Asian; 0.49% Black; 0.23% Others; 0.16% Pacific Islander]


• Sitka Consolidated City/Borough (8,881): Obama 49.44% - McCain 47.31% - Nader 1.69% - Baldwin 0.53% - Barr 0.44% - Others 0.59% = D+ 2.13
[65.29% White; 16.81% Native; 9.81% Multiracial; 5.96% Asian; 4.92% Hispanic/Latino; 1.27% Others; 0.53% Black; 0.34% Pacific Islander]


• Skagway Consolidated City/Borough (968): Obama 54.45% - McCain 39.44% - Nader 3.56% - Baldwin 1.27% - Barr 0.51% - Others 0.76% = D+ 15.01
[91.43% White; 4.03% Multiracial; 3.51% Native; 2.17% Hispanic/Latino; 0.52% Asian; 0.41% Others; 0.10% Pacific Islander; 0.00% Black]


• Unorganized Borough (78,149): McCain 53.96% - Obama 42.46% - Baldwin 1.31% - Nader 1.27% - Barr 0.60% - Others 0.40% = R+ 11.50
[54.44% Native; 34.64% White; 5.85% Multiracial; 3.17% Asian; 2.70% Hispanic/Latino; 0.80% Others; 0.78% Black; 0.32% Pacific Islander]


• Wrangell-Petersburg Borough (6,184): McCain 61.54% - Obama 35.29% - Nader 1.40% - Baldwin 0.86% - Barr 0.59% - Others 0.32% = R+ 26.25
[71.64% White; 16.14% Native; 8.88% Multiracial; 2.70% Hispanic/Latino; 2.15% Asian; 0.76% Others; 0.31% Black; 0.13% Pacific Islander]


• Yakutat Consolidated City/Borough (662): Obama 49.03% - McCain 47.08% - Nader 1.95% - Baldwin 1.17% - Barr 0.39% - Others 0.39 = D+ 1.95
[42.45% White; 35.80% Native; 15.41% Multiracial; 4.08% Asian; 2.57% Hispanic/Latino; 1.81% Pacific Islander; 0.30% Black; 0.15% Others)


This is not necessarily accurate as an indicator of which areas of Alaska are Republican and which are Democratic.  In 2012, many rural boroughs swung hard towards Obama.  Probably a Palin effect.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163216/-Which-county-had-the-biggest-shift-towards-Obama-from-2008-to-2012-The-answer-might-surprise-you
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2013, 08:48:46 AM »

Nope, that's not what happened. It's a classic case of GOP scaring away its last minority voters.
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barfbag
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2013, 07:32:53 PM »

Dont mean to be blunt, but Anchorage is a good bellwether because over 1/3rd of the state lives there

That's a good point.  I still don't think Alaska will move any further to the middle than likely Republican or light red though.

I'm not arguing either way, simply pointing out that its pretty obvious that Anchorage will go the way the rest of the state goes given the cities large population.

Probably but has Anchorage itself voted Republican in the past?
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Sol
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2013, 04:43:45 PM »

Dont mean to be blunt, but Anchorage is a good bellwether because over 1/3rd of the state lives there

That's a good point.  I still don't think Alaska will move any further to the middle than likely Republican or light red though.

I'm not arguing either way, simply pointing out that its pretty obvious that Anchorage will go the way the rest of the state goes given the cities large population.

Probably but has Anchorage itself voted Republican in the past?
I'm not super sure, but it seems likely that Anchorage was historically Republican. That's just a guess though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2013, 04:46:56 PM »

Dont mean to be blunt, but Anchorage is a good bellwether because over 1/3rd of the state lives there

That's a good point.  I still don't think Alaska will move any further to the middle than likely Republican or light red though.

I'm not arguing either way, simply pointing out that its pretty obvious that Anchorage will go the way the rest of the state goes given the cities large population.

Probably but has Anchorage itself voted Republican in the past?

Yes it has, it likely voted republican every time since 1968 given that Alaska has been a solidly safe state for a most of its statehood. 1964 is the only time it went D and probably the only time Anchorage went D.
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barfbag
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2013, 09:30:48 PM »

Dont mean to be blunt, but Anchorage is a good bellwether because over 1/3rd of the state lives there

That's a good point.  I still don't think Alaska will move any further to the middle than likely Republican or light red though.

It's funny to think of a city being so red, but it is Alaska where things are wild.

I'm not arguing either way, simply pointing out that its pretty obvious that Anchorage will go the way the rest of the state goes given the cities large population.

Probably but has Anchorage itself voted Republican in the past?

Yes it has, it likely voted republican every time since 1968 given that Alaska has been a solidly safe state for a most of its statehood. 1964 is the only time it went D and probably the only time Anchorage went D.
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