How did Ted Strickland lose reelection with this map?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Ohio gubernatorial election, 2010


United States presidential election, 2012 - Ohio


Something curious I noticed.  Judging by these maps, it appears that either Strickland should have won convincingly or Obama should have lost decisively.

[Person Man]

Stickland lost in the burbs but somehow did better with rural voters?

[Kevin]

Losing big in the burbs like indeed suggested combined with a low urban turnout?  Ether of which meant perhaps that doing better in the Appalachian sections of the state wasn't enough for Strickland.

[Person Man]

Losing big in the burbs like indeed suggested combined with a low urban turnout?  Ether of which meant perhaps that doing better in the Appalachian sections of the state wasn't enough for Strickland.

Indeed. Three arguments could be made. Those three arguments were "Strickland wasn't liberal enough" or "Strickland was a horrible campaigner" or he had the right message and communicated it well but turnout was low because people that would never vote R but were pissed at the Obama just gave up.

[ElectionsGuy]

The Southeastern Counties are very sparsely populated and they had some backlash against Obama for his anti-coal policies where as they didn't with Strickland. + Obama did much better in urban and suburban areas.

[old timey villain]

In 2012 Cuyahoga county had over 654K votes and Obama won it with 69% of the vote

In 2010 Cuyahoga had 414K votes and Strickland only win it with 61% of the vote

It probably has a lot to do with a big voter drop off in the big cities and a much smaller drop off in suburban areas. You combine that with Kasich's improved performance in most areas of the state and you have an R victory, even though Strickland won more rural counties than Obama.

[minionofmidas]

Obama outperformed Strickland by several points in almost all the major population centers in the state - which a shrewd eye should out even on the op map, tho the details get hazy that way - performed rougly even with him in the greater part of rural Ohio. A paltry ten point swing in the core of Strickland's old congressional district is not nearly enough to overcome that.

For demonstration purposes, all counties, Obama vs Strickland, votes cast 2012 in brackets for counties of over 50k votes
Cuyahoga +8.7 (645k)
Franklin +7.4 (572k)
Hamilton +6.0 (419k)
Lorain +5.9 (143k)
Delaware +5.7 (99k)
Erie +5.6
Lake +5.5 (119k)
Portage +5.3 (76k)
Licking +5.1 (82k)
Huron +5.0
Medina +5.0 (91k)
Summit +5.0 (268k)
Union +4.4
Ashtabula +4.2
Fairfield +4.1 (72k)
Lucas +4.0 (211k)
Clermont +3.9 (97k)
Stark +3.6 (182k)
Marion +3.2
Madison +3.1
Montgomery +3.1 (267k)
Butler +3.0 (170k)
Geauga +3.0 (51k)
Logan +2.9
Sandusky +2.9
Muskingum +2.8
Morrow +2.6
Knox +2.4
Wood +2.4 (64k)
Wyandot +2.0
Fayette +1.9
Wayne +1.8 (51k)
Greene +1.7 (84k)
Warren +1.7
Clark +1.6 (64k)
Coshocton +1.4
Pickaway +1.2
Ottawa +1.1
Hancock +0.7
Seneca +0.7
Fulton +0.6
Williams +0.5
Henry +0.3
Clinton +0.2
Ashland +0.1
Champaign +0.1
Perry +0.1
Crawford -0.1
Miami -0.1
Brown -0.2
Highland -0.4
Morgan -0.7
Richland -0.7 (58k)
Defiance -0.8
Hocking -0.9
Trumbull -1.0 (102k)
Carroll -1.2
Tuscarawas -1.3
Ross -1.4
Van Wert -1.5
Allen -1.6
Guernsey -1.8
Paulding -1.9
Hardin -2.0
Adams -2.4
Mahoning -2.4 (122k)
Holmes -3.1
Shelby -3.6
Auglaize -4.1
Columbiana -4.1
Preble -4.2
Athens -4.5
Darke -4.6
Jefferson -5.4
Mercer -5.6
Pike -7.3
Belmont -7.9
Harrison -8.9
Lawrence -9.1
Washington -9.6
Meigs -9.9
Putnam -10.1
Vinton -10.3
Gallia -11.4
Scioto -11.8
Monroe -12.8
Jackson -13.1
Noble -13.6

[Miles]

DKE had a good diary on this a few years ago.

This is Strickland vs Obama 2008:



Strickland's overperformance in Appalachia wasn't enough to cancel out the swings the major cities.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Kasich did better than Romney in Lake County and a few others.  I saw at least one county on there (near Toledo) that went for Kasich in 2010 and Obama in 2012.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think it's because the urban/rural split is wider in presidential elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think it's because the urban/rural split is wider in presidential elections.

Higher turnout among working class due to loss of manufacturing in 10. Rebounding economy helped the Obama voters negate the effect in 12.

[barfbag]

Have we forgotten how bad the Democrats were just 3 short years ago? We might as well ask how Rick Santorum lost in 2006.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think it's because the urban/rural split is wider in presidential elections.

Higher turnout among working class due to loss of manufacturing in 10. Rebounding economy helped the Obama voters negate the effect in 12.

Manufacturing has started to rebound, too, so that should have helped to an extent... just not in Appalachia.

EDIT: Scratch that, actually.  Obama did improve in Appalachian Ohio somewhat, in the southern portion of the state.

[Devils30]

The rural counties he won are mostly in his old congressional district OH-6, that explains most.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lucas county, which houses Toledo was the margin of difference.

[stevekamp]

The off year turnout gap between 2008 and 2010 explains everything.  You can also see this in the rare Ohio AG special election in 2008 (won by Richard Cordray) and the Cordray loss in 2010.

Democratic raw vote in 2008 -- 2,940,044 (all time high) R 2,677,820

Democratic raw vote in 2010 -- 1,812,047                        R 1,889,180

Shift                                  D minus 1,127,997                   R minus 788,640

Democratic raw vote 2012 D 2,827,709 ( + 1,015,662)    R 2,661,437 (R + 772,257)

The Kasich margin was only 77,133 -- if 10 percent of the 2008 Dems who did not voted in 2010 had voted, Strickland would have won