Czech parliamentary election 2013

[Leftbehind]

Thanks for the info - hope you keep updating this thread.

[ferenc_szombat]

Thanks for the info - hope you keep updating this thread.

It's a pleasure for me .

Today the Social Democrats started their campaign. They are continuing their tradition from previous parliamentary election and are promising the higher pensions. The new ideas are benefits for second and third child and comeback of sick benefits in first three days (canceling of it by right-wing government decreased workers sickness by half). What changed from last elections, they stopped giving free beer on their meetings .
The first meeting was in the Social Democrats stronghold Ostrava. The current leader, Bohuslav Sobotka, have probably bad memory about personal campaign - he was attacked in 2010 meeting.
The leadership send a "fashion manual" to their candidates. They are recommending suit without the tie, because "the tie is the symbol of the current (right wing) establishment". So nobody wear a tie in today's meeting - zpravy.idnes.cz/prvni-predvolebni-mitink-cssd-v-ostrave-fd4-/domaci.aspx?c=A130907_115650_domaci_kop .


The Civil Democratic Party is making a prologue to a campaign now. They get a billboards with a simple message "#Volim_pravici" ("#I_am_voting_the_right_wing") in the Twitter style. Without logo, the Civic Democrats are ashamed of their brand (in senate election a several candidates had propagation materials without logo too, ODS have reputation of the corruption party). A lot of people are confused about these billboards, because they don't know what it mean (they don't know what the Twitter is).
This messed up situation was used by small right wing party Svobodni ("The Freemans"). They steal the domain volimpravici.cz and when you search the hastag, majority of the tweets are about the Freemans.
There is picture of the billboard - i.lidovky.cz/13/091/lnorg/VAM4db61c_ODS02.jpg .

I will make the post with the posters and billboards, now I can't because limitation of the forum (no links and pics before 20 posts).

[Zanas]

What changed from last elections, they stopped giving free beer on their meetings .

That's outrageous !

[ferenc_szombat]

Finally some trustworthy poll! It was made by local office of global polling organization TNS for the Czech Television.

There is the results (in the brackets is difference from 2010 Parliamentary election):

CSSD (Social Democrat)  28% (+6%)
KSCM (Communist)  15,5% (+3,5%)
TOP09 (center-right)  13% (-3,5%)
ODS (right-wing)  9,5% (-10,5%)
ANO (populist, center-right)  7% (+7%)
USVIT (populist, center-left)  5,5% (+5,5%)
SPOZ (Social Democrat)  5,5% (+1,5%)
SZ (Greens, center)  5% (+2,5%)
KDU-CSL (Christian Democrat, center)  4,5% (0,0%)
DSSS (far-right)  2% (+1%)

(with the chart  -  pbs.twimg.com/media/BTvbVQfIMAAz1al.jpg:large )

Eight parties are above the threshold! The main surprises for me are the great result of the Green Party (they usually had 2-3% in the polls + they have a several problems now) and the bad result for the Christian Democrats (it looked that they are gaining more).
People probably forget the Public Affairs - the personal business project of millionaire Vit Barta (who corrupted his own party members btw) and want to vote the new, unverified parties again (ANO, USVIT).

The sample is 783 people, the margin of error is +- 1-3%.

[FredLindq]

Can somone give more information regarding ANO and USVIT? As I understand they are both new parties and populist. As I have understand USVIT has some former Public Affairs people inte the party (also populists).

[ferenc_szombat]

Can somone give more information regarding ANO and USVIT? As I understand they are both new parties and populist. As I have understand USVIT has some former Public Affairs people inte the party (also populists).

ok

ANO

ANO is party of billionaire of Slovak descent Andrej Babis, second wealthiest man in Czech Republic, enterpriser in agriculture, second biggest private employer. All that starts when Andrej Babis "get angry" (his own words) and paid an newspapers advertisement mobilizing people against "corruption and badly working state". Andrej Babis wanted to be just a sponsor of ANO movement at first, when he couldn't found any person for leading, he decided to be Chairman by himself.

When he recruited a enough people, the party have a first congress. A few weeks after the leadership was elected, there was a rebellion in the party against Andrej Babis. A coup was unsuccessful and all rebells leave the party. A ex-vice chairman said that Andrej Babis is behaving like a dictator and the party is his personal business project. Babis defended himself that the rebells wanted to "hijack the party".

It was a lesson for Andrej Babis. Now he is orienting to the celebrities for the main party posts and is harder to be accepted to the party. At this time the party have 1000 members and 5000 people is waiting to be checked.

ANO is gaining now. It is possible they get above the threshold (bookmaker odds - 1.15). The main problem could be a controversial past of Andrej Babis. Before the 1989 revolution he was a merchant in state owned company. That was a pretty prestige position in that time, a person must be absolutely loyal to the ruling regime. Andrej Babis was probably more than loyal - he was an agent of state secret police too. He is now defending himself that he didn't sign anything ("the agent contract is fake") and did not cooperate with the secret police. Who knows, he is a contestable now.

Another cons of Andrej Babis are his Slovak accent and his ignorance of some things. For illustration - in a election meeting he was asked what he thinks about a minimum wage amount. He didn't even know, what the minimum wage is!

When I'm watching Austrian politics, I see some similarities between Andrej Babis and Frank Stronach. Both are billionaires, both founded a protest vote party, both parties are based on plus-minus personal cult of the founder, both guys are repeating still the same phrases about economy etc.


About USVIT party I will write something tomorrow.

[Franknburger]

Is Babis only the Czech version of Stronach, or also a bit like Berlusconi? Well-connected part of the old regime turned wealthy businessman - there is more than just one alarm bell ringing...

[ferenc_szombat]

Is Babis only the Czech version of Stronach, or also a bit like Berlusconi? Well-connected part of the old regime turned wealthy businessman - there is more than just one alarm bell ringing...

Without involvement into communist regime he couldn't be part of state owned company management and he couldn't (or hardly could) participate in privatization of this company. He himself said that the Communist Party membership was needed.

There is another connection between Babis and Berlusconi - he is building his own medial empire. He bought two most influential newspapers in Czech Republic (one with the biggest circulation, another with the biggest moral credit). There are rumors that he want buy a television channel now.

And there are speculation, why is he doing this. Some people says that he want to ecological fuel subvention to continue (he made a bunch of money on it).

[FredLindq]

Which parties might might cooprate After the elections? It seems like CSSD and KCSM might fall behind
100 seats...

[Famous Mortimer]

My guess would be that if the Social Democrats and the Communists don't win a majority, Zeman appoints his own Social Democrat protege as PM and tries to force a grand coalition with ODS.

[FredLindq]

However i do not think that CSSD and ODS gets 100 seats either...

[ferenc_szombat]

My guess would be that if the Social Democrats and the Communists don't win a majority, Zeman appoints his own Social Democrat protege as PM and tries to force a grand coalition with ODS.

I think absolutely the same.

When CSSD+KSCM don't have 100 seats, there is option of CSSD government with support of KSCM and SPOZ (if the have a voters enough to get to parliament). That would be disaster, the government under double control of President Zeman - non-direct from the side of CSSD and direct from the SPOZ.

The same is possible with the ODS (CSSD governement with support of ODS and SPOZ). One CSSD government with support of ODS was already there - the parties signed so called "Opposition agreement". The Prime Minister of this government was Milos Zeman. He like this form of ruling.

Two new populist parties in the parliament are opening a new opportunities for coalition too.

[ferenc_szombat]

About USVIT party I will write something tomorrow.

USVIT (the full name - USVIT PRIME DEMOCRACIE - "The Direct Democracy Dawn")

I already posted here something about Tomio Okamura, the party founder.  He made a millions in tourism, was spokesperson of employers in the tourist industry, became the television's favorite talking head. He was one of the stars in one TV program in Czech Television.

When he got really famous, he candidate for a senator in the Zlin region. He won with a great result. So he decided he will candidate in presidential elections. He had problem with collected signs - he had signs from people who died a years ago - and was disqualified. He don't give up and he want to candidate in the parliamentary elections with his own movement.

His election program is: referendums, removability of politicians, presidential system. He said that his inspiration was a book "The Dawn" by Pavel Kohout (communist in 50's, reform communist in 60's, anti-communist dissident in 70's, sh**tty writer by the way). The book is "collection of ideas by Benjamin Franklin, George Washington and Charles Montesquieu".

His movement is wide coalition - Public Affairs, Moravians, other parties deserters (predominantly ex-ODS), anti-(previous)-government demonstrators, some crazy people etc.

It will be funny to watch this movement. Probably they dissolve or discredit themselves before election.

[FredLindq]

What is happening in the Czech republic?! Was on vacation in Prague two years ago and loved it. Could not imagine that this stable democracy with a stable two party system would turn into a joke?!

[ferenc_szombat]

What is happening in the Czech republic?! Was on vacation in Prague two years ago and loved it. Could not imagine that this stable democracy with a stable two party system would turn into a joke?!

Czech politics is in long-term crisis, almost every Prime Minister after the year 2002 had some kind of scandal, disloyalty of party members is broad phenomenon. Czech sociologist Jan Herzman said in one interview this year that "There is lack of trust in party system between the people." This is opening the doors for movements and parties, which have programs built on rejecting the parties at all, on anti-politics. The ideal illustration for the politics, which is dissing the politics, is the ANO party billboard slogan - "We are not like the politicians - We are working" (img.ct24.cz/cache/291x517/article/51/5024/502330.jpg). Disgust of the politics is probably in every country, but in Czech Republic is specially deep.

[ferenc_szombat]

The newest pre-election poll by CVVM:

CSSD 30,5%
KSCM 19,5%
ANO 14%
TOP09 12,5%
ODS 7%
SPOZ 5,5%
KDU-CSL 4,5%

The charts and trend - novinky.cz/domaci/314219-podpora-cssd-klesa-babisovo-hnuti-se-dostalo-na-treti-pricku.html .

[Leftbehind]

KSCM look set to poll into the twenties on that trend.

That ANO figure is profoundly disappointing, but if they can drag ODS out of parliament that'd make up for it. Looks like CSSD have took a significant hit, although not enough to stop the possibility of a CSSD-KSCM coalition?

[ferenc_szombat]

KSCM look set to poll into the twenties on that trend.

That ANO figure is profoundly disappointing, but if they can drag ODS out of parliament that'd make up for it. Looks like CSSD have took a significant hit, although not enough to stop the possibility of a CSSD-KSCM coalition?

I think there is a move from CSSD to KSCM. Partially it's caused by instability of CSSD (fight for a power between Hasek and Sobotka), partially by situation in Moravskoslezky region - the important underground mine is going to be closed and CSSD don't have any stance about it. Yes, commies could have 20%.

It's surprising for me how much is the ANO party gaining. When they are such a strong, it's opening possibility of coalition with CSSD. I will look for any statement of CSSD about ANO.

In the article there is not calculated the distribution of the seats. I think CSSD+KSCM would have the seats enough, but I'm not sure.

[ferenc_szombat]

Latest poll (TNS Aisa for Czech Television)

CSSD 29%
ANO 13%
KSCM 11%
TOP09 9,5%
ODS 8,5%
KDU-CSL 6,5%
SPOZ 5%
USVIT 4,5%
SZ 3,5%

(ceskatelevize.cz/ct24/domaci/244831-pruzkum-pro-ct-cssd-drzi-prvenstvi-ano-odsunulo-komunisty/)

I don't know, why KSCM fall so significantly. Maybe it is caused by calming down the situation in Ostrava region - not the all miners will be fired (only half of them) and it's still a time enough to resolve it. KDU-CSL gaining and ANO stabilized at +-13%.

[FredLindq]

It seems like both CSSD and KSCM is losing support. If they fail to get 101 seats might there be an anti CSSD alliance? If SPOZ does not get 5%, might ANO join TOP09, ODS and KDU-CSL?! Might USVIT join them or are they closer to CSSD?

[Leftbehind]

Latest poll (TNS Aisa for Czech Television)

CSSD 29%
ANO 13%
KSCM 11%
TOP09 9,5%
ODS 8,5%
KDU-CSL 6,5%
SPOZ 5%
USVIT 4,5%
SZ 3,5%

Disaster.

[ferenc_szombat]

It seems like both CSSD and KSCM is losing support. If they fail to get 101 seats might there be an anti CSSD alliance? If SPOZ does not get 5%, might ANO join TOP09, ODS and KDU-CSL?! Might USVIT join them or are they closer to CSSD?

ANO have conflict with TOP09 party (personal insults included), that decrease a possibility of ANO+TOP09+ODS+KDU-CSL. But after the election it will be a different situation - I don't reject idea of this coalition. Babis (the party leader-owner) would negotiate with CSSD too (he said it in one interview). The main obstruction would be the CSSD chairman Sobotka.

USVIT is closer to CSSD, I think. They are too much toxic for the open coalition - they could offer a non-formal support only.

Disaster.

Sort of. And the election campaign is enormously weak, the parties doesn't have any strong topics....

[ferenc_szombat]

Today I will introduce you to position of Karel Schwanzenberg in Czech politics. Karel Schwanzenberg is member of old Austrian-Hungarian aristocratic family. He was a consultant of first Czech president Vaclav Havel, then he had been minister of foreign affairs for Green Party and TOP09 (which he is founding member). He is something like mascot of TOP09 party, he is making the good opposite to bad men Miroslav Kalousek (the non-formal leader of the party, not so much popular).

Like a mascot he is the main person in every party campaign. In the presidential campaign he was stylized like "Karel is a punker".



Now he is stylized in James Bond



TOP09 campaigns are aiming to the younger voters. There is video from some pre-election meeting (street art action) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dO3GBI1Cr44 (that rap is senseless Karel Schwanzenberg adoration). And here is a very bad video with one Czech internet celebrity - https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1jYhgEiWL1U - interview in Czenglish (poor English spoken by Czech native).

It is not respectful for this old aristocrat. TOP09 is openly "using" him for their campaign.

[Zanas]

There's also a new poll out. TNS Aisa again. Between brackets, variation since last week.

CSSD 28.5% (-0.5)
ANO 12.5% (-0.5)
KSCM 12.5% (+1.5)
TOP09 11% (+1.5)
ODS 6.5% (-2)
KDU-CSL 6% (-0.5)
SPOZ 4.5% (-0.5)
USVIT 5% (+0.5)
SZ 3.5% (0)

There's a tight race for second place. Always glad to see ODS crashing like this, now they're at the same level as KDU-CSL. I don't think either of them will fall below 5% though.

[ferenc_szombat]

The left is without majority.



the parliamentary seats projection

the poll:

CSSD 25,9
ANO 16,1
KSCM 13,3
TOP 09 11,5
ODS 8,6
Usvit 5,9
KDU-CSL 4,5
SZ 2,6
SPOZ 2,6

the polling agency: STEM/MARK.
source: http://www.novinky.cz/domaci/316652-obrat-levice-bez-vetsiny-ano-na-druhem-miste-a-zemanovci-mimo-hru-uvadi-pruzkum.html

bonuses:

the video of the Green Party leader Liska doing rap - https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ppcuYt198gI

the election results maps from the past years - http://data.blog.ihned.cz/c1-61020360-oranzova-modra-i-ruda-republika-podrobne-mapy-s-vysledky-voleb-1996-2010