Why does Arizona vote so differently than Nevada?

[retromike22]

Southwestern location, most population concentrated in one urban area (Las Vegas and Phoenix) similar racial demographics (Arizona actually has more Hispanics), etc. It's not a Mormon difference: In Arizona it's 6.32% of the population while in Nevada it's 6.41%.

But looking at the 2012 exit polls, Arizona whites voted more Republican than Nevada whites. Why? Is it because Arizona's a border state?

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a really good question, I wonder the same thing. Lets review the exit polls and the demographics.

Arizona:

57.1% White, 30.2% Hispanic, Everything other group <6% of population.

Nevada:

52.9% White, 27.3% Hispanic, 8.9% Black, 7.9% Asian, Every other group <4% of population

Arizona Exit Polls:

White (74%) = 66% Romney, 32% Obama
Hispanic (18%) = 74% Obama, 25% Romney

Nevada Exit Polls:

White (64%) = 56% Romney, 43% Obama
Black (9%) = 92% Obama, 6% Romney
Hispanic (19%) = 71% Obama, 24% Romney

Nevada seems to be much more diverse overall, having a lot more blacks, asians, and less white than Arizona. Its a combination of whites being more republican in Arizona and Hispanics in Nevada turning out better. I have no idea why whites in Arizona are more republican, but I do have a theory. Arizona in the Phoenix area is much more suburbanized. Nevada's Reno and Vegas metro areas are mostly urbanized, and even the suburbanized areas are toss-up areas, unlike Arizona's heavily republican suburbanized areas. Not only that, but Arizona seems to have much more rural white areas than Nevada. Rural white counties in Nevada make up about 10% of the population, but in Arizona they make up about 25% of the population.

These are just themes but It definitely explains something. In 2008 John McCain's result almost mirrored Romney's result, but he got better Hispanic vote and worse white vote than Romney. I'm thinking it has to do something with the republican trend of white voters and something that affected Arizona that didn't affect Nevada.

[barfbag]

Demographics aren't quite the same. Internally the states differ as well. Nevada also has a libertarian leaning population which isn't friendly to social conservatives.

[Non Swing Voter]

A few differences I see:

The black population is sizeable in Nevada, that supplies democrats with a solid boost.

Nevada seems to have a lot more liberal California/West Coast transplants (it is a state known for gambling and other non-family friendly things...) whereas Arizona has West Coast transplants that seem to move there for the cheaper lifestyle and want low taxes, less government, etc.

Because Nevada has been better suited for a democratic win for years, I'm assuming democrats invested a lot more in infrastructure there.  Even though Arizona is not Alabama, I don't think the national party has really wanted to waste money contesting the state yet, so it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy that Arizona votes more Republican.

Also, I'd imagine, the Hispanic voters themselves are more conservative in Arizona than Nevada.

I actually think the relatively sizeable non-Hispanic minority population is the biggest factor though.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Another factor to consider is that Nevada actually has some organized labor, while Arizona has none to speak of.

[barfbag]

Arizona knows more what it's like to have problems with immigration. I'm not saying Nevada is safe from it, but Arizona sees the problems of illegal immigration first hand and knows what is needed in order to deal with such a threat. The answer is Republicans. We are Republicans! We are one!

[opebo]

Also, I'd imagine, the Hispanic voters themselves are more conservative in Arizona than Nevada.

That's not showing up in the voting - according the the figures posted above, a higher percentage of Hispanics in Arizona voted Obama than did Hispanics in Nevada.  Rather, what is likely happening is that Arizona Hispanics are significantly poorer (and thus disenfranchised) than those in Nevada.

[stevekamp]

Before air conditioning in the late Forties, Arizona and Nevada were both southern expatriate Democratic -- Truman in 1948 carried every county in Arizona, and Clark in Nevada.  Between 1948 and 1952, midwestern migrants moved to Arizona and elected a Republican Governor in 1950, the first ever Republican Congressman in 1952 (John Rhodes) and of course Barry Goldwater to his first Senate seat. The Republican vote more than doubled (from 77K to 152 K) whereas the D vote only moved from 95 K to 108 K, and this basic trend has remained, althougfh LBJ in 1964 came within 4,782 raw votes of beating Goldwater.  The Cluinton 1996 win was a Perot-siphoned plurality.

In 1952, the Democratic vote remained at 31 K (same as 1948), but the Republican jumped from 29 K to 50 K, not quite the Arizona leap. Nevada after 1952 still had Democratic pockets.  Stevenson in 1956 flipped Clark County, and Kennedy in 1960 won Nevada by 2,493 votes.  Post-1964, Nevada was no worse for Ds than any other western state.  In 2004, Republicans peaked at 418 K versus the Kerry 397 K.  In 2008, Obama added 136,000 new votes, whereas McCain lost 6,000.  Romney added 50 K, but Obama only lost 3 K.  Clark County Democratic vote between 2004 and 2008 jumped 99 K, a 

[stevekamp]

and between 2004 and 2008, Clark County Dem vote jumped 99 K whereas Republican moved only 2 K.  Romney added 32 K, but Obama 2012 added 90 K.

Much of Clark County is Filipino, African American, Hispanic, Jewish and casino workers (unionized).

[Person Man]

Arizona knows more what it's like to have problems with immigration. I'm not saying Nevada is safe from it, but Arizona sees the problems of illegal immigration first hand and knows what is needed in order to deal with such a threat. The answer is Republicans. We are Republicans! We are one!

Before air conditioning in the late Forties, Arizona and Nevada were both southern expatriate Democratic -- Truman in 1948 carried every county in Arizona, and Clark in Nevada.  Between 1948 and 1952, midwestern migrants moved to Arizona and elected a Republican Governor in 1950, the first ever Republican Congressman in 1952 (John Rhodes) and of course Barry Goldwater to his first Senate seat. The Republican vote more than doubled (from 77K to 152 K) whereas the D vote only moved from 95 K to 108 K, and this basic trend has remained, althougfh LBJ in 1964 came within 4,782 raw votes of beating Goldwater.  The Cluinton 1996 win was a Perot-siphoned plurality.

In 1952, the Democratic vote remained at 31 K (same as 1948), but the Republican jumped from 29 K to 50 K, not quite the Arizona leap. Nevada after 1952 still had Democratic pockets.  Stevenson in 1956 flipped Clark County, and Kennedy in 1960 won Nevada by 2,493 votes.  Post-1964, Nevada was no worse for Ds than any other western state.  In 2004, Republicans peaked at 418 K versus the Kerry 397 K.  In 2008, Obama added 136,000 new votes, whereas McCain lost 6,000.  Romney added 50 K, but Obama only lost 3 K.  Clark County Democratic vote between 2004 and 2008 jumped 99 K, a 

So, its just that Arizona whites are a larger proportion of unreconstructed Southerners? Though, I would say that it is more likely just modest retirees that live on a fixed income and can't afford good public services. If they had money, hey would move to more liberal places.

[barfbag]

Keep in mind Arizona has a conservative internal history.

[MalaspinaGold]

Did anyone mention the Reid Machine yet?

[barfbag]

Did anyone mention the Reid Machine yet?

The one that plugs into the wall and quotes Democratic talking points?

[MalaspinaGold]

No, I mean one of the most ruthless political machines in the country, the one that gets the one that plugs into the wall reelected every single year. I'm sure that plays a minor role.

Reid is a political genius mind you, somwhat similar to the artist plugged into a Louisville wall and recites Republican talking points.

[barfbag]

No, I mean one of the most ruthless political machines in the country, the one that gets the one that plugs into the wall reelected every single year. I'm sure that plays a minor role.

Reid is a political genius mind you, somwhat similar to the artist plugged into a Louisville wall and recites Republican talking points.

Democrats weren't able to do much until Obama was president and once they lost their majority two years later, he became ineffective again. All he ever does is talk about how terrible everything is in our nation. He's also a cranky old man who hates his fellow Mormons. We'll be the ones laughing when his term is over.

[greenforest32]

Arizona Exit Polls/b]

White (74%) = 66% Romney, 32% Obama
Hispanic (18%) = 74% Obama, 25% Romney

Nevada Exit Polls:

White (64%) = 56% Romney, 43% Obama
Black (9%) = 92% Obama, 6% Romney
Hispanic (19%) = 71% Obama, 24% Romney

The interesting thing is that in 2008 Obama got 40% of AZ whites (Kerry got 41% in 2004) and 56% of AZ hispanics. Maybe there was a negative reaction among whites there to the federal government suing over SB1070?

That 8% difference (32% v. 40%) on a base of 74% is worth about 6 points. A Democrat could get to 50% in Arizona in 2016 with 40% of the white vote provided they could simultaneously maintain those margins with minorities.

[illegaloperation]

No, I mean one of the most ruthless political machines in the country, the one that gets the one that plugs into the wall reelected every single year. I'm sure that plays a minor role.

Reid is a political genius mind you, somwhat similar to the artist plugged into a Louisville wall and recites Republican talking points.

Democrats weren't able to do much until Obama was president and once they lost their majority two years later, he became ineffective again. All he ever does is talk about how terrible everything is in our nation. He's also a cranky old man who hates his fellow Mormons. We'll be the ones laughing when his term is over.

What does this have to do with Reid's machine?

[Person Man]

My explanation that there are more affordable retirement communities in Arizona is a better explanation why Arizona is 55% Republican and Nevada is 51% Democrat than to simply say the average Arizonan is a segregationist or that Harry Reid farts a lot.

[barfbag]

My explanation that there are more affordable retirement communities in Arizona is a better explanation why Arizona is 55% Republican and Nevada is 51% Democrat than to simply say the average Arizonan is a segregationist or that Harry Reid farts a lot.

It's true Arizona attracts more conservative voters. Las Vegas is really the only place people live in Nevada and it's not very livable.

[Person Man]

My explanation that there are more affordable retirement communities in Arizona is a better explanation why Arizona is 55% Republican and Nevada is 51% Democrat than to simply say the average Arizonan is a segregationist or that Harry Reid farts a lot.

It's true Arizona attracts more conservative voters. Las Vegas is really the only place people live in Nevada and it's not very livable.

And it's not that people just get up one day, decide they don't like abortion or Mexicans and then decide they want to move to Arizona.

[barfbag]

My explanation that there are more affordable retirement communities in Arizona is a better explanation why Arizona is 55% Republican and Nevada is 51% Democrat than to simply say the average Arizonan is a segregationist or that Harry Reid farts a lot.

It's true Arizona attracts more conservative voters. Las Vegas is really the only place people live in Nevada and it's not very livable.

And it's not that people just get up one day, decide they don't like abortion or Mexicans and then decide they want to move to Arizona.

Lol whoever suggested such things?

[Person Man]

I am trying to nip in the bud that Arizonans or those who move there vote the way they do "just 'cuz" or some racist idea that there are "too many Mexicans" in Arizona.

[barfbag]

I am trying to nip in the bud that Arizonans or those who move there vote the way they do "just 'cuz" or some racist idea that there are "too many Mexicans" in Arizona.

Me too. It's Sunday morning and there's a lot of hung over partisans. It's becoming a western Florida for retirees due to what it has to offer.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also, I'd imagine, the Hispanic voters themselves are more conservative in Arizona than Nevada.

That's not showing up in the voting - according the the figures posted above, a higher percentage of Hispanics in Arizona voted Obama than did Hispanics in Nevada.  Rather, what is likely happening is that Arizona Hispanics are significantly poorer (and thus disenfranchised) than those in Nevada.

That is because of the AZ Immigration Law. In 2004, 47% or so of Hispanics voted to eliminate benefits for illegals, basically the equivalent of CA Prop 187.