Average Distance From Center in the 21st Century

[barfbag]

This is the states' average margin from being the national average. I'm going to bed so we'll discuss in the morning.

Utah 71-28
Wyoming 70-29
Idaho 68-32
Nebraska 63-36
North Dakota 61-38
Alabama 61-38
Kansas 61-38
Alaska 61-38
Oklahoma 61-39
Kentucky 60-39
South Dakota 60-40
Texas 60-40
Arkansas 59-41
Mississippi 59-41
West Virginia 58-41
Louisiana 58-41
Montana 58-41
Tennessee 58-42
South Carolina 58-42
Indiana 57-43
Georgia 56-43
Arizona 55-44
North Carolina 54-45
Missouri 54-46
Virginia 52-48
Florida 51-48
Ohio 51-49
Colorado 51-49
Nevada 50-50 (D)
New Hampshire 49-51
Iowa 49-51
Wisconsin 48-51
Pennsylvania 48-51
New Mexico 48-52
Minnesota 48-52
Washington 45-54
Michigan 47-53
Oregon 47-53
Maine 45-55
New Jersey 44-56
Illinois 43-57
Delaware 43-57
Connecticut 42-57
California 42-57
Maryland 41-59
New York 39-61
Massachusetts 38-61
Rhode Island 38-62
Vermont 38-62
Hawaii 37-63
D.C. 11-88

[opebo]

Which gives us something like this:

Obviously not wildly off, but also obviously overestimating Republican strength at the late date of 2016.  The electorate is quite different 16 years into the twenty-first century, simply due to death.

[barfbag]

Which gives us something like this:

Obviously not wildly off, but also obviously overestimating Republican strength at the late date of 2016.  The electorate is quite different 16 years into the twenty-first century, simply due to death.

Yes because the map has trended but the Democrats have won the last two elections so possibly not off by much at all. I agree this model doesn't show where trends would end up, but just their distance from center. It was very late and I didn't do that map yet.

[opebo]

Anyway its a good effort and useful to think about.  The only state on that map I'd definitely color red would be Nevada.

[barfbag]

Anyway its a good effort and useful to think about.  The only state on that map I'd definitely color red would be Nevada.

If we were to continue instead of average trends, then Nevada would be barely Democrat. However, Nevada did trend a couple points closer to the middle in 2012. I think it will stay as a close battleground state and 2008 was an anomaly due to the housing market collapse.