States that will never vote for either party?

[Rob]

What are the states you think will never vote for the other party again? My guesses:

States that will always go Republican:



States that will always go Democratic:



What do you guys think?

[Defarge]

NY would go Republican given the right candidate.  Rudy for instance.

[YRABNNRM]

Hawaii could also, given the right candidate.

The same could be said for Alaska, Wyoming, North Dakota,  and maybe Alabama and Mississippi for an extremely conservative democratic candidate or an independent.

[Rob]

Hawaii could also, given the right candidate.

Yeah, I was a little unsure about that one. I'll change the map.

[A18]

I honestly doubt the map will look anything like it does today 100 years into the future.

I wouldn't even go as far as to say for sure that the GOP and Democratic parties will both be in tact.

[Rob]

NY would go Republican given the right candidate.  Rudy for instance.

I think Giuliani would do amazingly well for a Republican in New York, but he'd still lose by about 8-10 percent.

[Rob]

I honestly doubt the map will look anything like it does today 100 years into the future.

True, but some states never change- Nebraska for example.

[A18]

In the past 100 years, even Nebraska voted Democratic in 1908, 1912, 1916, 1932, 1936, and 1964.

[Rob]

In the past 100 years, even Nebraska voted Democratic in 1908, 1912, 1916, 1932, 1936, and 1964.

I know, but those were during special periods- the farm crisis of the 1890's, the war crisis of the 1910's, and the Great Depression of the 1930's. The underlying Republicanism never disappeared.

1964 was a special case, and even then LBJ won by an underwhelming six points- it was one of Goldwater's best states outside the South.

[opebo]

Bob, I liked that fat guy.

Here's my map of states that won't be changing with the parties as they now are.  In other words barring a complete realignment.. and also barring any weird third party effects.

[KEmperor]

Every state has a chance to go for either party.  Since 1960, EVERY STATE has gone for both parties at least once.

[Ebowed]

Not the District of Columbia.

[Ebowed]

Bob, I liked that fat guy.

Here's my map of states that won't be changing with the parties as they now are.  In other words barring a complete realignment.. and also barring any weird third party effects.

Assuming the Democrats got a good nominee like John Breaux, every single Southern state would have a chance of voting Democratic.  Don't forget that Kentucky and Georgia also voted for Clinton recently.

[Redefeatbush04]

Bob - it is interesting that vermont, which has voted Republican 33 of the last 38 times will "never vote republican". This means that either:

A - the people of vermont have changed ideologically
B - the parties have changed ideologically
C - Vermont is not solidly democratic
D - Canadians are hopping the border

I'd say that A is possible, especially on economic issues. Vermont voted against nearly socialist FDR every time yet voted for Kerry over Bush. South Carolina did the opposite.

I'd say that B is not only possible, but likely, particularly on social issues. The republican party has always been the laissez-faire party and the democratic party has always been the party of economic reform and "progressivism". Yet the south-dominated democratic party of the 1800's was not exactly a bastion of liberalism. They were far from advocating civil rights, praising darwin and killing babies (at least the white ones)

C + D are just wrong. Actually there are problly more Vermont residents fleeing to canada than the other way around.

[skybridge]

I honestly doubt the map will look anything like it does today 100 years into the future.

I wouldn't even go as far as to say for sure that the GOP and Democratic parties will both be in tact.

Exactly. Just coast throw a history book (if you haven't already done so) and you'll be surprised at how different the parties' positions once were. Who says that couldn't happen again?

[Rob]

I honestly doubt the map will look anything like it does today 100 years into the future.

I wouldn't even go as far as to say for sure that the GOP and Democratic parties will both be in tact.

Exactly. Just coast throw a history book (if you haven't already done so) and you'll be surprised at how different the parties' positions once were. Who says that couldn't happen again?

It is possible, but highly unlikely. If it does happen, it won't be for another century- at least.