A realistic Clinton/Cruz election

[Unimog]

I want Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton to be the candidates in 2016. And three weeks before the election i want to come back to this discussion.

Many of you are overestimating Hillary Clintons chances in the five Pomney/B.Clinton states.

Arizona won't turn blue.

I see Clinton winning with the 2012 results, adding NC and making MO and GA competitive, but nothing more.

[IceSpear]

Clinton - 402
Cruz - 136

[Liberalrocks]

Clinton - 402
Cruz - 136

Pretty much this, on a very good day and complete implosion of Cruz I could see Montana and possibly the Dakotas also going to Clinton but overall those states are not fertile ground for her and tougher to campaign in. So Cruz likely holds onto them even in a blowout. Louisiana and Kentucky would also be very close and likely could go eithier way. I do see Clinton hitting the magic 400 electoral count that you have here against him. Cruz would be a complete disaster nomination for the GOP, similiar to what a rehabilitated nomination of Sarah Palin would be.

[Suburbia]

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM)-343 EV
Texas Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)/South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)-145 EV
This map can change, but that's how I see it now.

[daveosupremo]

Once he gets in, Cruz will get a lot of devoted fans, and will be the second choice for Paul, Huckabee and Carson voters, both of Santorums voters, and a lot of Walker voters. He's also relatively unlikely to make a serious mistake.  Atlas is seriously underestimating his chances in the primary, and, I believe, in the general.

[Devils30]

Cruz is not sniffing the White House in the general. He will be lucky to get above 45% in Ohio and Virginia.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I've been bullish on Ted Cruz's chances lately. I don't particularly like Cruz, but we have to keep in mind that he isn't Sarah Palin or Rick Perry. He's pretty smart, and he has a background similar to the guy who beat Hillary Clinton in a presidential election.

Jonathan Bernstein presented a few of the arguments about why he thinks Cruz could beat Hillary.

http://www.salon.com/2013/07/20/ted_cruz_could_beat_hillary/

2016 could end up being a cycle in which a Republican is favored over the Democrat. Eight years ago, what would we have thought that a realistic Obama/ McCain matchup would be like?

And Ted Cruz is superficially an attractive candidate. It isn't clear that the fights he's picked have been bad ones.

Honestly, on paper this election looks a lot like Obama vs. McCain would have in March 2007.

Clearly, Obama proved himself to be a far better campaigner than Cruz has shown in his time so far, but this isn't one of those match ups where I would say one candidate essentially can't win. Cruz is a candidate who could win if the politics of the election are heavily in his favor.

That being said, I think his ceiling is roughly 300 EVs, and hers is close to 400, so the odds would be against him.

[IceSpear]

Clinton - 402
Cruz - 136

Still agree with this, though I'd probably switch AR to Cruz now.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton - 402
Cruz - 136

Still agree with this, though I'd probably switch AR to Cruz now.

Flip AR and IN to Cruz, MT to Clinton.

[Blair]

Indiana is a ery of state, electoral wise

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Clinton - 402
Cruz - 136

Flip Arizona, Georgia, Arkansas, Indiana, NE-2, and Missouri to Cruz, and change Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Virginia to tossup (CO, VA, IA, and NC tilt-Cruz, FL tilt-Hillary).

But I reject the premise that a Clinton-Cruz map can ever be realistic since it presumes Ted Cruz could realistically be the Republican nominee.

[Xing]

Considering how polarized this country is, Cruz would still win all of the traditionally Republican states. He may be extremely conservative, but he's not completely unqualified like Ben Carson, or as much of a joke as Huckabee or Santorum. There wouldn't be a large "Republicans for Hillary" coalition. However, he wouldn't do well among independents, which is why I don't think he'd carry any swing states.

Maybe if Obama is less popular, he gets NC. GA could potentially flip if it's a good enough year for Democrats, but it's unlikely.

[IceSpear]

So is it now in vogue to act like Cruz is anything other than a joke candidate? Virginia wouldn't even be a battleground state, much less "tilt Cruz."

[Mr. Illini]

A solid Clinton victory but not the blowout some are thinking. States like Georgia and Missouri do not have the types of Republicans that will cross over because of Cruz's fundamentalism. They are still very polarized states. Georgia turning Dem over time will be a result of Atlanta's growth, not moderate Republicans protesting by voting Dem.

Where you will see shifts is you'll have Connecticut, New Jersey, ME-1, etc. going >60% Dem because GOPers in those places detest Cruz and will indeed vote for Clinton over him.

348 - 190

[King]

Cruz would really be a gift to Hillary.

Obama's only personality weakness was being perceived out of touch with blue collar America. Romney neutralized it completely by being even more out of touch.

Clinton's only personality weakness is being seen as being sometimes too shrill and confrontational. Nobody is more shrill, arrogant, and confrontational than Ted Cruz.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Hillary will mop up the floor with him!

Making such predictions for any candidate with the election still more than year and a half away is at very least silly. There's always a possibility of something happening and Hillary crashing in flames, like Dukakis who, after all, hold a double-digits lead over Bush until summer just to lose by a high double digits.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but when will you guys learn how unpredictable is the electoral politics?

[The Other Castro]

Probably somewhere between 2008 and 2012. She'd start with the 2012 map, probably pick up North Carolina, and possibly pick up Missouri if its a big enough blowout. The electoral map wouldn't look too different, but the popular vote would be much closer to 2008 than 2012.

[bobloblaw]

Cruz would likwly win GA.

GA is a very inelastic state. I dont see too many moderate GOPers who would vote for Clinton.