NY Primaries Prediction Thread '13

[Progressive]

Post your predictions for the following primary races

NYC Mayor (D and R)
NYC Comptroller
NYC Public Advocate
Manhattan Borough President
Queens Borough President

Nassau County Executive

and whomever else

[nolesfan2011]

Dem Mayor: De Blasio 39% Thompson 24% Quinn 22% Weiner 7% Liu 6% Others 2%
GOP Mayor:  Lhota 55% Catsimatidis 33% McDonald 10%
Dem Comptroller:  Spitzer 52% Stringer 48%

[Niemeyerite]

Dem mayor:
De Blasio 41%
Thompson 23%
Quinn 17%
Weiner 9%
Liu 5%
Salgado 2%
Albanese 2%
Others 1%

GOP Mayor:
Lhota 53%
Catsimatidis 34%
McDonald 13%

Dem Comptroller:
Spitzer 53%
Stringer 47%

[Lief 🗽]

Dem Mayor:

De Blasio: 36%
Thompson: 29%
Quinn: 17%
Weiner: 6%
Liu: 5%

Comptroller:
Spitzer: 53%
Stringer: 47%

[PPT Spiral]

De Blasio - 39%
Thompson - 26%
Quinn - 15%
Weiner - 9%
Liu - 6%
Others - 5%

Lhota - 51%
Catsimatidis - 38%
McDonald - 11%

Spitzer - 52%
Stringer - 48%

[Miles]

De Blasio- 43%
Thompson- 23%
Quinn- 18%
Wiener- 8%

Spritzer- 51%
Stringer- 49%

I haven't really followed the GOP side.

[Eraserhead]

Okay, I wanted to get these out last night but better late than never I guess:

NYC Mayor (R)

Lhota 56%
Catsimatidis 36%
McDonald 8%

Lhota wins all five boroughs (with Catsimatidis coming in second in all of them).

NYC Mayor (D)

de Blasio 40%
Thompson 28%
Quinn 17%
Weiner 6%
Liu 5%
Salgado 2%
Albanese 1%
Credico 1%
Berkowitz 0%

de Blasio (barely) avoids a runoff.

By borough:

The Bronx: de Blasio (Thompson in second)
Brooklyn: de Blasio (Thompson in second)
Manhattan: de Blasio (Quinn in second)
Queens: de Blasio (Thompson in second)
Staten Island: de Blasio (Quinn in second)

NYC Comptroller

Spitzer 50.2%
Stringer 49.8%

I think strong support (and decent turnout) from blacks and hispanics save Spitzer at the end of the day. It should be very close though (not really buying that last Quinnipiac poll).

By borough:

The Bronx: Spitzer
Brooklyn: Spitzer
Manhattan: Stringer
Queens: Stringer (closest borough)
Staten Island: Stringer

NYC Public Advocate

James: 36%
Squadron: 27%
Saujani: 19%
Guerriero: 18%

By borough:

The Bronx: James (Guerriero in second)
Brooklyn: James (Squadron in second)
Manhattan: Squadron (Saujani in second)
Queens: Squadron (James in second)
Staten Island: Squadron (Guerriero in second)

Okay, this one is admittedly a shot in the dark. None of the candidates are extremely well known and I think the polling that was done is basically useless.

Don't know enough about the other races listed by the OP to try and predict them.

[NewYorkExpress]

Mayor GOP-
Lhota 56%
Catsmatidis 22%
McDonald 20%
other/write-in 4%

Democrats-
De Blasio 36%
Thompson 21%
Quinn 15%
Liu 7%
Wiener 5%
Salgado 4%
Albanese 3%
Other/write-in 10%

Comptroller
Democrats
Spitzer 51%
Stringer 48%

Libertarian- (yes there's a libertarian Primary)
Kristin Davis 52%
Hesham el Megily 48%

Public Advocate
Daniel Squadron 29%
Reshima Sajauni 27%
Letita James 15%
Cathy Guerreo 11%
Sidque Wai 10%


Manhattan Borough President
Gale Brewer

Bronx Borough President
Eric Diaz Jr

Queens Borough President
Melinda Katz

[Badger]

Not going to bother with exact percentages (maybe too chicken? ) but in sum:

DeBlasio narrowlyish misses 40% and goes into a runoff with Thompson.

Lhota sweeps all 5 bouroughs in an easy win.

Stringer beats Spitzer by at least a few points. Maybe....

[Badger]

NYC Public Advocate

James: 36%
Squadron: 27%
Saujani: 19%
Guerriero: 18%

By borough:

The Bronx: James (Guerriero in second)
Brooklyn: James (Squadron in second)
Manhattan: Squadron (Saujani in second)
Queens: Squadron (James in second)
Staten Island: Squadron (Guerriero in second)

Okay, this one is admittedly a shot in the dark. None of the candidates are extremely well known and I think the polling that was done is basically useless.

Don't know enough about the other races listed by the OP to try and predict them.

Just curious. Is this office also subject to the 40% runoff rule, or is that just the Mayoralty?

[Eraserhead]

NYC Public Advocate

James: 36%
Squadron: 27%
Saujani: 19%
Guerriero: 18%

By borough:

The Bronx: James (Guerriero in second)
Brooklyn: James (Squadron in second)
Manhattan: Squadron (Saujani in second)
Queens: Squadron (James in second)
Staten Island: Squadron (Guerriero in second)

Okay, this one is admittedly a shot in the dark. None of the candidates are extremely well known and I think the polling that was done is basically useless.

Don't know enough about the other races listed by the OP to try and predict them.

Just curious. Is this office also subject to the 40% runoff rule, or is that just the Mayoralty?

Yep, this office is also subject to the 40% runoff rule.

[bballrox4717]

De Blasio: 40%
Quinn: 22 %
Thompson: 22 %
Weiner: 7 %
Liu: 6 %

De Blasio barely clears run off, Quinn barely takes second, Thompson disappoints as African Americans turn out for De Blasio.

Joe Lhota takes over 50 % in the Republican primary.

[bedstuy]

Any takes on the Kings County District Attorney race?

[Eraserhead]

Eh, I guess I forgot about Sidque Wait in the Public Advocate race. I'm not gonna bother changing my whole prediction though. I can't really imagine him getting more than 1 or 2%.

[traininthedistance]

Any takes on the Kings County District Attorney race?

No idea.  Hope Ken Thompson wins; Hynes' predilection for covering up abuse cases in the Hasidic community is really effing disturbing.

[bedstuy]

Any takes on the Kings County District Attorney race?

No idea.  Hope Ken Thompson wins; Hynes' predilection for covering up abuse cases in the Hasidic community is really effing disturbing.

I really hope Thompson wins.  It's just unconscionable how the DA looks the other way on the abuse of Hasidic children.  There's some hope in the fact that Thompson has run a strong campaign and is going to get the vote of any non-Hasid that has paid attention, 

On the other hand, the Satmars are paying people to vote so we'll see how that affects things.

http://gothamist.com/2013/09/10/williamsburg_satmars_promise_a_chan.php