2000 Election Game: Campaign Thread

[Niemeyerite]

If Spiral doesn't update today or tomorrow, I will, so relax (expect an update for Tuesday).

[Niemeyerite]

Does anyone want to join the game before I start moderating?

I haven't had time today for this... Sorry, people. I promise tomorrow you'll get an update.

[Niemeyerite]

Does anyone want to join the game before I start moderating?

I haven't had time today for this... Sorry, people. I promise tomorrow you'll get an update.

I hope someone else joins as well, it would be great to see Nader or a Reform candidate (Trump, Hagelin, Buchanan).

Maybe too late to make it a 3-way race, but a Reform candidate could make it to double digits, considering that Perot got almost 20% only 8 years before.

[Niemeyerite]

August 25th - 31st begins now

_______________________________________________________



-A week after the Conventions, Dan Quayle widens his lead.

-Is Tom Daschle wasting time and money on useless, and usually bad, polling? Is that strategy of releasing every private poll backfiring? Will he have enough energy to keep campaigning all around the USA, travelling to different states (and countries, sometimes) every day, without taking a rest? That could be the reasons of his drop in the polls... But are those the ONLY reasons? Only time (and campaign) will tell...

-2000 is on its way to be the first time in a long time not to have at least one 3rd party candidate. On the one hand, almost 1/5 of republicans believe Collin Powell is a republican in name only. Can a conservative candidate gain traction with those republican voters? On the other hand, Tom Daschle is managing to keep the left with him, with proposals that make him look like a "progressive hero", such as the bike lane one.

-Polls show that a Southerner in the D ticket and an afroamerican in the GOP one is keeping the republican base demobilized in the deep South.

-Arkansas, the state getting the most attention... Is it really worth it? Why do Quayle and Daschle keep fighting for a state that only delivers 6 EVs? What are the reasons for this? We believe Daschle has the upper hand here for two reasons: 1) he has Bill Clinton campaigning for him here and 2) his running-mate has represented rural Arkansas for 6 years and the entire state for more than a year in the Senate. But Quayle seems to be focused on carrying this states... Can him? And does Daschle feel that if he doesn't win Arkansas, his campaign is DOA?

______________________________________________________

Polls:

[/size]

Do you support adding bike lanes to every street in the nation, as Tom Daschle proposed? (among liberals in brackets)

Yes 25% (83%)
No 52% (6%)
Don't know 23% (11%)

Republicans only - Do you think Collin Powell is a"RINO" (Republican in name only)?

Yes 17%
No 70%
DK 13%

Tennessee:

Quayle/Powell 46%
Daschle/Lincoln 43%
Undecided 11%

Missouri:

Quayle/Powell 46%
Daschle/Lincoln 44%
Undecided 10%

California:

Daschle/Lincoln 49%
Quayle/Powell 43%
Undecided 8%

New Hampshire:

Quayle/Powell 50%
Daschle/Lincoln 44%
Undecided 6%

Alabama:

Quayle/Powell 49%
Daschle/Lincoln 40%
Undecided 11%

Maryland:

Daschle/Lincoln 49%
Quayle/Powell 39%
Undecided 12%

*National map coming next week

______________________________________________

You can request 2 endorsements this round, and maybe 1 or 2 the next one. After that, no more endorsements and/or surrogates.

We need a moderator for the debates. I was going to ask NHI to do it, but since he's Collin Powell now, I'll think about another person. Volunteers?

Good luck!

(I'll have another update today, and I think it'll be interesting...)

[Niemeyerite]

National PRP Poll (August 23rd)

Quayle/Powell 50% (+1)
Daschle/Lincoln 46% (-1)
Undecided/DK 4%

National Gassmussen Poll (August 22nd)

Quayle/Powell 51%
Daschle/Lincoln 44%
Undecided/DK 5%

National B2000 Poll (August 24th)

Quayle/Powell 47%
Daschle/Lincoln 46%
Undecided/DK 7%

[Niemeyerite]

Once Quayle releases his schedule I'll have an update. It's nice to see all those posts, thanks guys! I'll have to work a lot on my updates and polling... I'll need Excel, but I don't have it on my computer... Does anyone know if there's something similar on the internet, so I can work with it?

O, and if I finally leave the Forum, it'll be after finishing the game, so don't worry. This won't die before election day.

[Niemeyerite]

I'll update this today or tomorrow morning. Just give me some time to have state projections matching national polls (that's why I use Excel). Both campaigns are doing a great job, thank you!

But isn't anyone interesting in running as a 3rd party candidate? This late in the game and with both major party candidates campaigning so hard it'd be almost impossible for him to get to double digits, but he could play as a spoiler. IRL, in 2000 Ralph Nader cost Gore the election .

And what about debates? When do you want them to take place and who wants to be moderator? (I can do the job, but I prefer to have some other moderating and deciding who won the debate, because I'm not always impartial. I thought Obama had won the 1st debate against Romney)

[Niemeyerite]

Yeah, Isaac, Superique and Maxwell were the 3 I had in mind.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm slightly tempted to jump back in this as a third-party candidate, actually. Any suggestions as to who?

Well, I think Trump, Hagelin and David Boren could make interesting candidates (as opposed to Buchanan in OTL). Boren could draw support from both parties, Trump can self-fund his campaign and Hagelin has... interesting beliefs?

Ralph Nader ran in real life, Perot ran in 1992 and 1996, so why not this year too? Also, Jesse Ventura could make a late entry, or Jim Jeffords, who became an independent in 2001 in real life.

EDIT: Update in 15 minutes.

[Niemeyerite]

September 1st-7th begins now

__________________________________________________



-Daschle seen as more likeable than Quayle. 60% would prefer to have a beer with him.

-Polls keep showing Quayle leading by low single digits, but Daschle close behind.

-Daschle gets to explain to the American people his "bike lane" proposal. Quayle decided not to talk about the issue, even if he had a big opening to paint Daschle as an out of mainstream liberal.

-Quayle promises a republican legislature with a republican President will shake things up in Washington. Will that mobilize conservatives... or liberals?

-Will the "grades" ad hurt Daschle among people who used to be bad students? How will Americans react to the ad? Quayle was quick in his answer. Americans already believe he looks way more Presidential than Daschle, will this make his lead on this issue increase even more?

-Bill Clinton goes all in for Tom Daschle. The strategy of making Daschle look like 4 more years of Bill Clinton on economy but to the left on social issues seems to have stopped his bleed in polls... But is that strategy too soft to survive? This week we had a Clinton vs. Quayle race rather than a Daschle vs. Quayle one.

-Dan Quayle visits his home state, then Illinois. Doe he see a path in the state? And he made a visit to the state of California, too! And not to fundraise money! Republicans feeling optimistic this week!

-Pennsylvania, a great state to campaign in! Polls show a toss-up there, with Daschle still leading.


___________________________________________________

Polls:

Given the opportunity, you'd rather have a beer with...?

Tom Daschle 60%
Dan Quayle 29%
DK/U 11%

But... who looks more Presidential?

Dan Quayle 58%
Tom Daschle 27%
DK/U 15%

If the Democratic Party candidate were Bill Clinton (again) and the GOP one Dan Quayle... who'd get your vote?

Clinton 50%
Quayle 46%
DK/U 4%

Have you ever got an "F" in any of your grades?

Yes 74%
No 12%
Can't remember 14%

National PRP Poll (August 23rd)

Quayle/Powell 49% (-1)
Daschle/Lincoln 45% (-1)
Undecided/DK 6%
________________________________________________

Map (by PRP)

Quayle/Powell 220 EVs
Daschle/Lincoln 195 EVs
Toss-up 123 EVs

Tosss-up ((0-4%] lead)
30% shade ((4-8%] lead)
90% shade (+8% lead)

*Don't be mislead by the difference between shades:there are some states were the candidate leads by just below 8% who are less elastic than others were the same candidate has a lead just over 8%). There are 3-4 states were one of the candidates has a lead of just below 4%, so they're counted as a toss-up here, but the candidate trailing will have to refine his strategy if he wants to reverse polls. It's taken me many time to decide whether to have toss-up for % or <4% leads. I decided to go for the 2nd option so you have to guess where your time is better spent without much help

**Imagine Maine's 1st is yellow, not green.

[Niemeyerite]

National Gassmussen Poll (August 29th)

Quayle/Powell 50% (-1)
Daschle/Lincoln 44% (=)
Undecided/DK 6% (+1)

National B2000 Poll (August 31st)

Quayle/Powell 47% (=)
Daschle/Lincoln 46% (=)
Undecided/DK 7% (=)

Kentucky (PRP)

Quayle/Powell 51%
Daschle/Lincoln 42%
U/DK 7%

Alaska (PRP)

Quayle/Powell 63%
Daschle/Lincoln 28%
U/DK 9%

Pennsylvania (PRP)

Daschle/Lincoln 48%
Quayle/Powell 45%
U/DK 7%

[Niemeyerite]

Schedule coming later tonight!

Remember: I give bonus for posting early.

[Niemeyerite]

Update (likely) tonight.

[Niemeyerite]

Update today. Sorry for the delay, I had to deal with some personal issues... But I'm OK now

[Niemeyerite]

September 8th-21st begins now (two weeks, I'm afraid this game will die before Election Day if we don't hurry up. I'll be busy in April, too)

__________________________________________________



-Quayle still leading, but Daschle keeping his base fired up. Is Daschle favored if the turnout is low on Election Day?

-Powell, too lazy to be VP? Too optimistic about GOP chances in blue states? Does he really want to be VP? Americans unsure.

-Is West Virginia gone for Daschle? West Virginians afraid "to regulate coal" means "war on coal", poll shows. On the other hand, Oregon voters like his stance on clean energy.

-Quayle winning the "advertising war", with the support of millionaire, generous donors.

-Will Bill Clinton keep campaigning for Daschle after Lincoln words on campaign trail? "Bill Clinton was a philanderer, and I don't want him anywhere near me on the campaign trail". Arkansas voters now have an unfavorable opinion of their Senators, as do a huge majority of Americans. Should Daschle start thinking about changing his running-mate? She seems toxic for his campaign eight now... can she change that?

__________________________________________________

National PRP Poll (August 23rd)

Quayle/Powell 50% (+1)
Daschle/Lincoln 45% (=)
Undecided/DK 5% (-1)

National Gassmussen Poll (September 5th)

Quayle/Powell 49% (-1)
Daschle/Lincoln 44% (=)
Undecided/DK 7% (+1)

National B2000 Poll (September 7th)

Quayle/Powell 49% (+2)
Daschle/Lincoln 45% (-1)
Undecided/DK 6% (-1)

Do you believe Collin Powell is doing all he can to win the election?

Yes 14%
No 63%
DK 23%

Do you think Collin Powell really wants to be VP?

Yes 33%
No 23%
DK/Unsure 44%

What's your opinion about Blanche Lincoln?

Favorable 31%
Unfavorable 54%
DK/U 15%

West Virginia: do you believe "to regultate coal" is an euphemism for "war on coal"?

Yes 58%
No 24%
DK/Unsure 18%

Oregon poll:

-Do you approve of Daschle approach on clean energy?

Yes 56%
No 30%
DK/U 14%

-And who are you voting for?

Daschle/Lincoln 48% (+2)
Quayle/Powell 45% (-1)
DK/U/Other 7% (-1)

Arkansas: what's your opinion about Blanche Lincoln?

Favorable 40% (-14)
Unfavorable 48% (+9)
DK/U 12% (+5)

Nevada:

Daschle/Lincoln 47%
Quayle/Powell 44%
DK/U 9%

[Niemeyerite]

OOC: NYE, are you half-serious about this?

[Niemeyerite]

OOC: Is Tom Daschle really talking about "Lincoln fiascoes" and "Bill Clinton... an unpopular President"? You may still have the opportunity this election if you change your strategy, campaign hard, in the right states and have good debate performances... But if you keep "playing" this way, it'll be a 40-45 state win for Quayle. Think about it

[Niemeyerite]

Big update tomorrow.

[Niemeyerite]

September 22nd-28th begins now

__________________________________________________



-Quayle widens his lead. Will he be able to keep it in October? Can Daschle still upset him after a very bad month?

-A month and a half from the election, Americans still find Quayle fits the Presidency better than the South Dakota democrat, and Powell crushes Lincoln on the VP poll.

-Americans think Lincoln should be replaced as VP candidate, democrats divided on the issue. There's a path for her recovering, polls show: the VP debate. Americans agree with her on one issue: the system of impeachment is broken, but fear she may not like Daschle after she said "The four of us may not like Bill Clinton... Some of us don't even like Tom Daschle" in the company of... Monica Lewinsky!

-September is all about Blanche Lincoln!!

-Experts find the Quayle website both easy to use and modern. Will that help him among youngs?

-Was Quayle lost when he visited Arkansas (AR)? Did he think he was visiting Alaska (AK)?

-Surrogates not working for Presidential candidates, and Daschle was a bit lazy in September, wasn't he?

-Quayle almost ties Daschle among Hispanics and does better than expected among blacks. But is he managing to keep the white conservative energized? At least, his push for inmigration reform seems to be working among Hispanics.

-Americans don't think Quayle will bring "honor" back to the White House. They believe honor is already there with Clinton as President. Reason? Americans still like President Clinton.

-Liberals in love with Daschle. Problem is: how many Americans identify as "liberal"? Are the ads against him helping solidify the liberal base behind him?

-Will Daschle upset Quayle in some states in the South? Lincoln making campaign stops in Alabama and South Carolina, Clinton in Arkansas and Lousiana and himself in Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina suggest he really thinks he has a chance in the South. Does him?

-Quayle can still play golf if he's elected President, poll says. Hispanics more divided on the issue. Do they think playing golf is out of touch with reality?

-State polls and map released... with many surprises! The biggest: Quayle with over 269 EVs.
__________________________________________________

National PRP Poll (September 20th)

Quayle/Powell 50% (=)
Daschle/Lincoln 44% (-1)
Undecided/DK 6% (+1)

-Among Hispanics:

Quayle/Powell 44%
Daschle/Lincoln 48%
DK/U 8%

-Among blacks:

Quayle/Powell 16%
Daschle/Lincoln 78%
DK/U 6%

-Among whites:

Quayle/Powell 54%
Daschle/Lincoln 40%
DK/U 6%

-Among conservatives:

Quayle/Powell 77%
Daschle/Lincoln  8%
DK/U 15%

-Among liberals

Quayle/Powell 6%
Daschle/Lincoln  91%
DK/U 3%

National Gassmussen Poll (September 18th)

Quayle/Powell 50% (+1)
Daschle/Lincoln 42% (-2)
Undecided/DK 8% (+1)

National B2000 Poll (September 20th)

Quayle/Powell 49% (=)
Daschle/Lincoln 45% (=)
Undecided/DK 6% (=)

Dan Quayle and Tom Daschle: who looks more "Presidential"?

Quayle 65%
Daschle 29%
DK/U 6%

Blanche Lincoln and Collin Powell: who looks more "Vice Presidential"?

Lincoln 13%
Powell 76%
DK/U 11%

Do you think Blanche Lincoln should be replaced as VP candidate?

Yes 54%
No 32%
DK/U 14%

-Among democrats:

Yes 40%
No 38%
DK/U 22%

Will you watch the VP debate?

Yes 59%
No 27%
DK/U 14%

-Among independents:

Yes 66%
No 23%
DK/U 11%

And the Presidential debates?

Yes 62%
No 25%
DK/U 11%

Do you agree with Blanche Lincoln, who thinks that the system of impeachment is broken?

Yes 50%
No 21%
DK/U 29%

Do you think Lincoln should be hitting the campaign trail with Monica Lewinsky? Or would Bill Clinton help her more?

Lewinsky 20%
Clinton 63%
DK/U 17%

Will Dan Quayle bring honor back to the White House or it's already there with Bill Clinton?

Bring back 39%
Already there 53%
DK/U 8%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Clinton is doing as President?

Approve 55%
Disapprove 40%
DK/U 5%

Should Dan Quayle stop playing golf if he's elected President?

Yes 22%
No 63%
DK/U 15%

-Among Hispanics:

Yes 35%
No 49%
DK/U 16%

__________________________________________

California:

Quayle/Powell 46%
Daschle/Lincoln 48%
Undecided/DK 6%

Washington:

Quayle/Powell 45%
Daschle/Lincoln 49%
Undecided/DK 6%

South Carolina:

Quayle/Powell 54%
Daschle/Lincoln 38%
Undecided/DK 8%

Kansas:

Quayle/Powell 60%
Daschle/Lincoln 33%
Undecided/DK 7%

Louisiana:

Quayle/Powell 52%
Daschle/Lincoln 42%
Undecided/DK 6%

Maryland:

Quayle/Powell 43%
Daschle/Lincoln 49%
Undecided/DK 7%

Maine:

Quayle/Powell 46%
Daschle/Lincoln 48%
Undecided/DK 6%

Michigan:

Quayle/Powell 46%
Daschle/Lincoln 47%
Undecided/DK 7%

Map (by PRP):

Yellow: 3% or less margin. Toss-up.
30% shade: (3-6%] lead.
60% shade: (6-9] lead.
90% shade: more than 9% margin of lead.

Quayle/Powell 280 EVs
Daschle/Lincoln 136 EVs
Toss-up 122 EVs

[Niemeyerite]

So, no updates?

A candidate releasing his schedule with the other not doing so would give him a bump in polls, that for sure. I'll update this on Saturday.

[Niemeyerite]

So, I can update now. It'll likely be this evenning.

[Niemeyerite]

So now NYE doesn't want to play anymore. We have two options here:

1) Next update will be election night or
2) Someone replaces NYE as Daschle and Lincoln.

[Niemeyerite]

Sorry, guys. 2014 is being a tough year and the last things I wanted to do were studying and everything involving brain-working (including updating this). But later today you'll have a big update, and never again I'll let this "die". Sorry and thanks for the patience.

[Niemeyerite]

September 29th-October 5th begins now

__________________________________________________



-Blanche Lincoln image recovers (a bit) after Daschle explicit support for her and a more or less "calm" week with only one gaffe (about having already lost the election)!!.

-Al Gore campaigning for Tom Daschle in Minnesota give the South Dakota senator a slim edge over republican Quayle, PRP poll indicates. Is that lead real? Will the rust-belt come home for Daschle in November...?

-Does Tom Daschle really think he can win in Alabama or does he visit the state just because he likes it? Polls show him still trailing there, but not by double-digits yet.

-Is Quayle too confident about winning the Presidency in November? Some polls indicate that the race has tightened this week.

-Hundreds of students join "Students for Opportunity". Experts indicate that may be exactly what Quayle needs to make sure he wins states that voted for Clinton twice but are in play now!

-Candidates fighting for Pennsylvania. As of today, two polls taken in the state show an statistical tie with Quayle leading by just 1 in one of them. No clear favourite in the Keystone State, but Collin Powell managed to get more Pennsylvanians hear his speech: almost 60,000!

-Daschle and Quayle have reasons to fear: the first has lost some support among liberals (which still keeps very, very strong), the second is starting to seriously lose white's support, maybe because of his inmigration views, or maybe it's just statistical noice. Let's see how they react to these "problems"...
__________________________________________________

National PRP Poll (September 20th)

Quayle/Powell 49% (-1)
Daschle/Lincoln 44% (=)
Undecided/DK 7% (+1)

-Among whites:

Quayle/Powell 52% (-2)
Daschle/Lincoln 41% (+1)
DK/U 7% (+1)

-Among liberals

Quayle/Powell 7% (+1)
Daschle/Lincoln  88% (-3)
DK/U 5% (+1)

National Gassmussen Poll (September 18th)

Quayle/Powell 50% (=)
Daschle/Lincoln 43% (+1)
Undecided/DK 7% (-1)

National B2000 Poll (September 20th)

Quayle/Powell 49% (=)
Daschle/Lincoln 45% (=)
Undecided/DK 6% (=)

Do you think Blanche Lincoln should be replaced as VP candidate?

Yes 50% (-4)
No 37% (+5)
DK/U 13% (-1)

-Among democrats:

Yes 32% (-8)
No 46% (+8)
DK/U 22% (=)

Minnesota:

Daschle/Lincoln 49%
Quayle/Powell 45%
DK/U 6%

Alabama:

Quayle/Powell 51%
Daschle/Lincoln 43%
DK/U 6%

Pennsylvania (by PRP):

Quayle/Powell 46%
Daschle/Lincoln 46%
DK/U 8%

Pennsylvania (by F&N):

Quayle/Powell 48%
Daschle/Lincoln 47%
DK/U 5%

New Mexico:

Quayle/Powell 49%
Dachle/Lincoln 46%
DK/U 5%
__________________________________________

(Map coming each two weeks, so next week ).

[Niemeyerite]

Senate polls (!!!; 1/3)

Arizona:

Jon Kyl (R) 59%
Bill Toel (I) 14%
Vance Hansen (G) 13%
Barry Hess (L) 4%
DK/U 10%

Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN

California:

Dianne Feinstein (D) 46%
Tom Campbell (R) 40%
Medea Benjamin (G) 5%
Gail Lightfoot (L) 1%
Diane Beall Templin (AI) 1%
DK/U 7%

Rating: LEANS DEMOCRAT

Connecticut:

Joe Lieberman (D) 50%
Philip Giordano (R) 38%
William Kozak (CC) 3%
Wildey J. Moore (L) 1%
DK/U 8%

Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT

Delaware:

Thomas R. Carper (D) 48%
William V. Roth, Jr. (R) 44%
DK/U 8%

Rating: LEANS DEMOCRAT (Pick-up)

Florida:

Bill Nelson (D) 46%
Bill McCollum (R) 45%
Willie Logan (I) 3%
DK/U 6%

Rating: PURE TOSS-UP

Georgia:

Zell Miller (D) 50%
Mack Mattingly (R) 42%
DK/U 8%

Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Hawaii:

Daniel Akaka (D) 60%
John S. Carroll (Republican) 27%
Lauri Clegg (NL) 4%
DK/U 9%

Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT

Indiana:

Richard Lugar (R) 64%
David Johnson (D) 28%
Paul Hager (L) 3%
DK/U 5%

Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN

Maine:

Olympia Snowe (R) 57%
Mark W. Lawrence (D) 36%
DK/U 7%

Rating: SAFE REPUBLICAN

Maryland:

Paul Sarbanes (D) 55%
Paul Rappaport (R) 40%
DK/U 5%

Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT

Massachusetts:

Ted Kennedy (D) 60%
Carla Howell (L) 15%
Jack E. Robinson III (R) 13%
Philip F. Lawler (C) 3%
DK/U 9%

Rating: SAFE DEMOCRAT

Michigan:

Spencer Abraham (R) 48%
Debbie Stabenow (D) 46%
DK/U 6%

Rating: TOSS-UP/TILTS REPUBLICAN