Tunisian general election 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

So Chokri Belaid was assassinated. Before today, as far as I knew, he was the leader of the Movement of Democratic Patriots, a Marxist splinter group with 1 seat in parliament. Dude gets shot, suddenly the media makes him out to be a major figure. He's apparently head of something called the Unified Democratic Nationalist Party? Which I've never heard of before. Then he's the leader of the Popular Front? No, former Prime Minister Beji Caid el Sebsi is head of the Popular Front, which also includes the Tunisian Workers' Party (formerly the Tunisian Workers' Communist Party) and the Ettajdid Movement (formerly the Tunisian Communist Party), both of which are bigger than Belaid's party.

Anyway, the media is exaggerating how important this guy is. I don't think the powers that be would even bother to assassinate him. I'm guessing something personal or maybe typical Marxist infighting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The phrase 'opposition leader' is being used quite a bit, I note.

[Famous Mortimer]

Islamist Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali has announced he is forming a new technocratic cabinet and moving elections up as soon as possible.

The assassination seems to have hastened this decision but the main reason is the ongoing breakdown of the 3 party grand coalition between the Islamists, the nominally secular Congress for the Republic (the party of the figurehead president), and the social democratic Democratic Forum for Labuor and Liberties. The two smaller parties had been been demanding the removal of the Islamist Foreign and Justice Ministers.

A poll was released in January showing, for the first time since the last election, the Islamists losing the top spot and former PM Beji Caid el Sebsi's Call for Tunisia winning a plurality. Beji Caid el Sebsi had already been leading presidential polls for some time. However in both the parliamentary poll and the presidential polls, there was 30 to 50% undecided. Based on the last election and the election in Egypt (because all Arabs are the same - joking - sort of) you can pretty safety give all those undecideds to the Islamists.

[Famous Mortimer]

Corrections (as best I can figure out):

Beji Caid el Sebsi's Call for Tunisia is not part of the Popular Front.

Nor is the Ettajdid Movement (now called the Social Democratic Path), which is aligned with the Republic Party (formerly the Progressive Democratic Party, the party that was supposed to come in second in the last election but ended up coming in 5th).

The Popular Front is only the Tunisian Workers' Party and the Movement of Democratic Patriots.

God, reporting from Tunisia is a disaster.

[Benj]

The most recent parliamentary poll does not have so many undecided:

Call of Tunisia: 33% (moderate secularists)
Ennahda: 33% (moderate Islamists)
Popular Front: 8% (socialists/communists)
PDP/PR: 6% (liberal secularists)
Aridha: 4% (populists/personality cult party)
CPR: 4% (left-liberal secularists)
Ettakatol: 3% (social democratic secularists)

Others/Undecided: 10%

(reaches 101% due to rounding)

At the last election, the polls understated Ennahda considerably and overstated the PDP considerably but weren't so far off. I think even if Ennahda were the largest party on these numbers, a secularist coalition would rule.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'd dispute the classification of CPR as left liberal. They're a classic African oppositionist party, founded in exile with no real platform besides opposition to dictatorship.

[Benj]

True. I was looking for some sort of designation that would place them between Ettakatol and the PDP on the left-right economic spectrum, which seems to be where they place themselves. But economic issues are not central to their politics (though not to the extent of, say, Aridha).

[Foucaulf]

This is a massive bump, but bear with me. The aforementioned 2013 election has not happened. Instead we got, over last year, another assassination, protests around the country and a unity government. The election may happen during the Winter.

I lived in Tunisia over the summer, so I know a few things about the subject. If there is any interest I can talk about:

• Demographics (regional divides);
• The main parties;
• The public sphere's structure.

In other words, I can write a megapost. In the meantime, there are a few english Tunisian news websites; Tunisia Live is certainly the best.

[politicus]

This is a massive bump, but bear with me. The aforementioned 2013 election has not happened. Instead we got, over last year, another assassination, protests around the country and a unity government. The election may happen during the Winter.

I lived in Tunisia over the summer, so I know a few things about the subject. If there is any interest I can talk about:

• Demographics (regional divides);
• The main parties;
• The public sphere's structure.

In other words, I can write a megapost. In the meantime, there are a few english Tunisian news websites; Tunisia Live is certainly the best.

Please do.

[palandio]

That sounds promising! :-)

[Foucaulf]

TUNISIA: THE POLITICAL PRIMER

(Note: by reading this you agree to withhold all liability against me, especially if information gathered herein were to upset an actual Tunisian person.)

I. History.

Tunisia, a country of ten million people, lies between mountain, sand and sea. Its history as a country is quite brief: before, it was occupied by the Phoenicians, the Carthaginians, the Romans, the Arabs, the Ottomans, the French and the Italians (for a few days). The republican movement emerged in the 1920s and coalesced under one leader, the late President Habib Bourguiba.

Bourguiba's increasingly authoritarian regime went in step with his desire for a unique Tunisian identity. That identity is essentially "Arab-Islamic," bordering on the secular. While religious authorities had the liberty to act in the private sphere, the state entrenched women's rights and took no cues from the Qu'ran. A socialized economy gave way in the eighties, the same time as the pan-Arabist vision collapsed.

In 1987, the nearly demential Bourguiba was overthrown by Interior minister and confidant Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. This coup reconsolidated the regime against Islamists outside of the government circle, like Rashid Ghannouchi (more on him later). Economic liberalization was accompanied by a pivot to the West, bringing tourism dollars with it. But such sedation can't last for 20 years; by 2008 there were strikes and anger in the South. Of course, the action everyone remembers is what happened in late 2010, when a young man, Mohamed Bouazizi, burned himself alive in protest of the regime. He inspired rallies from the Sahara to Tunis, and Ben Ali fled by the next month.

As the former president's system collapsed, those suppressed under decades of Bourguiba-Ben Ali rule returned. First was Ghannouchi, more than ready to commence his Islamist movement. Then there were the unions and the Salafist cells. A coalition between Ghannouchi's Islamists and opposition lists was to lead the country to renewed prosperity and a proper constitution within a year at most.

What actually happened? - Investment slowed, wages stagnated, and the Revolution upset a tourism industry that had kept the southern regions afloat. Unemployment reached new highs, and the villages who first revolted continued to suffer. Meanwhile, the "Constituent Assembly "stalled; infighting between the coalition meant no text was forthcoming. Things reached boiling point in 2013, when the extremist threat surged once more and led to the death of significant politicians. By August, rallies in Tunis were calling for the government's immediate dissolution.

By surrendering the prime ministership, the ruling coalition entered into a "national dialogue" with opposition forces, a fusion of regime apparatchiks and leftists. This process, started in October, was too many times close to collapse. Somehow the parties have ended up agreeing to an interim government, a new election law and a large set of constitutional amendments, the last of which is being debated right now in the Constituent Assembly. Yes, seriously. While its passage does not guarantee an election this year, it is the only way any such election will matter.