Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Current status of crazy close seats...

Capricornia - ALP 140
McEwen - ALP 73
Barton - ALP 62
Eden-Monaro - Lib 254
Petrie - LNP 600
Reid - Lib 619

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labor carried Broken Hill, which is hardly surprising but is nice for the mindlessly sentimental amongst us.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Division of Kennedy

House: LNP 41.0, KAP 29.6, ALP 16.2, PUP 7.7, Greens 3.1, whateversky the rest
Senate: LNP 40.5, ALP 21.7, KAP 13.8, PUP 8.1, Greens 3.3, Shooters & Fishers 1.2, Fishing & Lifestyle 1.1

[freek]

I wonder if it is really true that voters mistook the LDP as the LNP and that is how they got that Senate seat in NSW. That would really be sad.

Apparently the Liberal Democrats had the top left position on the NSW Senate ballot, so it might explain at least part of their success.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if it is really true that voters mistook the LDP as the LNP and that is how they got that Senate seat in NSW. That would really be sad.

Apparently the Liberal Democrats had the top left position on the NSW Senate ballot, so it might explain at least part of their success.

Watch parties start to recruit candidates who's name starts with A.

[minionofmidas]

I wonder if it is really true that voters mistook the LDP as the LNP and that is how they got that Senate seat in NSW. That would really be sad.

Apparently the Liberal Democrats had the top left position on the NSW Senate ballot, so it might explain at least part of their success.

Watch parties start to recruit candidates who's name starts with A.

Nothing new about that.

I recall archiving 70s or 80s (I forget) issues of the Australian Communists' weekly or monthly or whatever for a summer job. I recall a rundown of their fistful of candidates' result in a General Election. I recall an asterisk by the name of all the slightly less successless candidates. I recall the explanatory note that the candidates in question had been listed first on the ballot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, that's why ballot places are now determined by a draw.

[Platypus]

Yes, nothing alphabetical about our ballot papers any more.

It's actually two draws. First each candidate (in the order they filed) draws a random number, and then they draw the numbers for ballot order

I love the AEC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fisher is another possible PUP gain

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Random result of interest from Adelaide: Kingston is now clearly a very safe seat, and Makin is pretty clearly a safe one. Interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Platypus]

It looks likely that Seselja will get in on the back of Animal Justice Party preferences

Very high % below the line though, as it's Canberra.

[Talleyrand]

Current status of crazy close seats...

Capricornia - ALP 140
McEwen - ALP 73
Barton - ALP 62
Eden-Monaro - Lib 254
Petrie - LNP 600
Reid - Lib 619

Eden-Monaro has been updated by the AEC, and now it's Lib 634. Petrie and Reid haven't actually been updated since election night. I don't know if that means the count is complete or if there are still a significant number of ballots out?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Current status of crazy close seats...

Capricornia - ALP 140
McEwen - ALP 73
Barton - ALP 62
Eden-Monaro - Lib 254
Petrie - LNP 600
Reid - Lib 619

Eden-Monaro has been updated by the AEC, and now it's Lib 634. Petrie and Reid haven't actually been updated since election night. I don't know if that means the count is complete or if there are still a significant number of ballots out?

Still a LOT of counting left to do...

[adma]

Interesting that a libertarian will be in the senate. What's PUP all about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_United_Party

How can we best categorize Palmer--some kind of Perot-Stronach hybrid?

[Smid]

Current status of crazy close seats...

Capricornia - ALP 140
McEwen - ALP 73
Barton - ALP 62
Eden-Monaro - Lib 254
Petrie - LNP 600
Reid - Lib 619

Eden-Monaro has been updated by the AEC, and now it's Lib 634. Petrie and Reid haven't actually been updated since election night. I don't know if that means the count is complete or if there are still a significant number of ballots out?

Still a LOT of counting left to do...

I heard earlier today, roughly 14,000 postal votes in McEwen, none of which have been counted (well, they're probably in the process of being counted, but they're not online yet). Rechecking seems to be being updated, though - the margin there changed from 73 to 72 sometime this afternoon...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's early... but 57/103 booths counted and McGowan has a tiny lead over Mirabella (it won't hold but it's GLORIOUS to see)...

[Platypus]

A lot more booths in now, and McGowan's lead is at 1750.

Mainly Prepolls to come in. Benalla will help Sophie, Wodonga will be roughly equal, Wangaratta will help Sophie, The Div office in Wang will help Cathy, the rest are smaller but help Sophie.

So, it'll come down to postals, and I have no idea how they'll split.

The good news is that preferences are generally HEAVILY favouring McGowan, roughly 75-80%.

[Platypus]

Just taking three examples, from the more extreme ends booth wise:

Yarck (far south of Indi)

McGowan first prefs: 64 (23.19%)
McGowan TCP:  105 (38.40%)
Mirabella first prefs: 163 (59.06%)
Mirabella TCP: 171 (61.96%)

Devenish (far west of Indi)

McGowan 1st: 17 (17.35%)
McGowan TCP: 32 (32.65%)
Mirabella 1st: 64 (65.31%)
Mirabella TCP: 66 (67.35%)

Tallangatta (far northeast of Indi, near the border)

McGowan 1st: 233 (34.78%)
McGowan TCP: 333 (49.70%)
Mirabella 1st: 310 (46.27%)
Mirabella TCP: 337 (50.30%)


And one form a larger town in the center of the electorate:

Wangaratta

McGowan 1st: 536 (44.37%)
McGowan TCP: 724 (59.93%)
Mirabella 1st: 429 (35.51%)
Mirabella TCP: 484 (40.07%)

[Platypus]

Its true of a whole lot of the smaller booths, basically. Wandiligong, McGowan goes from 85 to 118, Mirabella from 82 to 86.

Tarrawingee, 57 to 92 for McGowan, 73 to 76 for Mirabella. Tatong 40 to 59; 69 to 75. Sandy Creek, 88 to 114 vs 146 to 155. Kinglake 106 to 397 for McGowan, 217 to 274 for Mirabella.

etc etc

Larger booths the advantage is also still significant, and in some cases (Benalla) huge.

Rutherglen 531 to 729 for McGowan, 554 to 618 for Mirabella.

West Wodonga Victory 635 to 937 for McGowan, Mirabella goes from 752 to 851.

West Wodonga 617 to 1052, Mirabella 650 to 786.

Wodonga Central 878 to 1424, Mirabella 849 to 1004.

Benalla West, McGowan 325 to 577, Mirabella 515 to 597.

Benalla, 362 to 649 for McGowan, 512 to 585 for Mirabella

[Platypus]

Oh my word.

Yea for Yea!

McGowan first prefs 164 (15.75%)
McGowan TCP: 469 (45.05%)

Mirabella 1st: 519 (49.86%)
Mirabella TCP: 572 (54.95%)

That 365 preferences to McGowan to 53 to Mirabella.

That's about 87% of preferences to McGowan

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is there anything we can from these numbers outside of the fact that Mirabella is getting thumped on preferences?

[Platypus]

Just that the areas Mirabella appeared to be doing well in, contrary to my expectations - the farming booths - either voted for her first pref or didn't put her above McGowan. In the towns, the 'anyone but Sophie' mood means all the ALP and Greens voters go for her. Also the Donkey votes for Rise Up Australia go to McGowan.

Basically everyone everywhere goes for McGowan if they didn't go for Mirabella straight up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That sounds pretty ominous for the she-beast

[Viewfromthenorth]

Any word on demographics yet? I'd be interested to see the gender split.