Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Vosem]

Four gains already projected:
Bass
Braddon
Corangamite
Page

Also Lyne, but then there was never any doubt there.

Lyons is now 'safe Coalition gain'...that makes five...

Lindsay makes six...New England has the same rating, but then it was never in any doubt...

Robertson makes seven. Bruce and McEwen (both 'safe LIB gain', amazingly) make eight and nine -- one swing like that might be a glitch, but I don't think two Melbourne suburbs projected like that probably aren't...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

[RogueBeaver]

ABC projecting 90-59 in seats.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

[Senator Cris]

ABC:

Coalition 65 - Labor 39 - Other 1

AEC:

Coalition 57 - Labor 25 - Other 1

[morgieb]

Bruce was given back.

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

Fowler had a massive swing in 2010, and the Liberal candidate had some major problems. It's very, very safe normally.

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

[Talleyrand]

ABC's computer almost always makes premature calls, IIRC, so it doesn't mean much in Bruce, but it's still extremely close (and Smid's prediction seems to be coming to fruition).

[morgieb]

Better in Western Sydney than I thought.

Very ordinary in Victoria though.

[Vosem]

Deakin's been projected as a safe gain, but Lindsay's actually been moved down to just 'Likely LIB gain', so the total is still just seven.

[Platypus]

Swing in McEwen all in booths that Libs did relatively better in in 2010 than the seat as a whole. I expect it to come back to 7% or so, ALP hold.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like the much anticipated Western Sydney collapse has not actually happened: probably because much of the swing happened last time round. Media Egg Faces?

[Senator Cris]

First Preferences by Party

22,41% in

Labor 33,3%

Liberal 27,4%
Liberal National 12,1%
Nationals 5,9%
Country Liberals 0,1%

TOT 45,5%

Greens 8,3%

Palmer United Pary 6,3%

TPP

Coalition 54,6%
Labor 45,4%

[Bacon King]

Rudd's behind on the first round vote

[RogueBeaver]

Lab will fight on the carbon tax: official line is that they lost because of leadership, not policy.

[Senator Cris]

ABC:

Coalition 69
Labor 42
Other 1

76 for majority

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

[Senator Cris]

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/au/results

[Platypus]

Mirabella down to 44% on first prefs, based on booths 17% swing anti her - looking very good for McGowan.

[Talleyrand]

It looks like there'll be a very painful swing against Labor in Lingiari, with the CLP candidate on 58.7% of TPP (although only 5/71 booths are in) against Warren Snowdon. In Darwin-based Solomon, it looks like there's a tiny swing to the CLP so far.

[Vosem]

Fairfax just switched straight from 'safe LNP retain' to 'safe PUP gain'...

Melbourne is at 'safe GRN retain'...

Kennedy is at 'likely KAP retain' -- considering the last several results from there, a close race there even if Katter wins is an amazing result...

[countydurhamboy]

Looks like there huge swings in western Sydney already happened last time.
ABC giving fairfax to Palmer, but a huge shock could be on the cards in kennedy.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yeah, it is clear that some of the numbers on the ABC website are not yet fully factoring in PUP and KAP.

[RogueBeaver]

Mirabella projected the winner. Guess these uneven swings and Lab overperforming in Western Sydney are what's playing havoc with those extra few seats projected Blue by Mackerras and Newspoll.