Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously still very much provisional.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Capricornia - ALP 141
Barton - ALP 68
McEwen - ALP 66
Eden-Monaro - Lib 569
Reid - Lib 634

[Hifly]

Do we know how many postals have been cast in the above 5 seats (or if they've been counted yet/when they'll be counted)?

[Smid]

Do we know how many postals have been cast in the above 5 seats (or if they've been counted yet/when they'll be counted)?

The link is available. I'll find it for you later, if someone doesn't post it earlier.

[YL]

Xenophon slams bizarre preference deals

Xenophon himself was actually quite high up Labor's preference list in South Australia (10th) but his running mate, Stirling Griff, was way down (49th).  When Labor's second candidate was eliminated, the votes first went to the Greens, electing their candidate, but then transferred to Family First and the Liberals ahead of Griff.  The Green preferences also went to Family First (but not the Liberals) ahead of Griff.  (Obviously this is all provisional.)

Mind you, I think what Xenophon does (splitting his votes equally between a left-wing and a right-wing ticket) is also quite weird, and a bit Moderate Heroish.

[YL]

2013 Australian Federal Election Results - Palmer Primary Vote

Bigger map in the Gallery, etc. Roughly an inverse to a typical Greens' strength map... Greens' strength has a central epicentre and radiates to lesser strength further from the core. Palmer strength is weakest in the city centres and inner suburbs, and typically seems to gain strength as it reaches the outer suburbs. This is evident in every state, including Queensland, which has some ridiculously high Palmer vote totals. Within the outer suburbs, there seems to be a slightly stronger result in more blue-collar, Labor seats - it's really slight, though, and I could be imagining it (and there are definitely some exceptions). I suspect it may be have been predominantly a blue collar protest option for typically Labor voters who didn't want to vote Coalition (except in Queensland, which is completely different to everywhere else).

For the record, the only electorate with a Palmer vote of less than 1% was Melbourne. The highest Palmer vote was for Palmer himself, in Fairfax. Even there, he only received 27% of the vote, so just over a quarter. If he is elected, it will be due to Labor Party preferences, and the Labor Party will be responsible for the collective national embarrassment.

Some of those patterns are vaguely reminiscent of UKIP...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting that a libertarian will be in the senate. What's PUP all about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_United_Party

How can we best categorize Palmer--some kind of Perot-Stronach hybrid?

More or less, yes. But with an added dash of Queensland weirdness; and of the Sir Joh variety at that.

[Vosem]

I presume the Other vote in Adelaide is for the Nick Xenophon Group?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Any word on demographics yet? I'd be interested to see the gender split.

Our exit polling isn't that great - so anything would have have to be an educated guess... women probably JUST leaned ALP - men supported the Coalition by a decent margin.

[DC Al Fine]

Question: When will be get to see preference flows by party?

EDIT: Also why did the Greens do so poorly? I would've figured they'd do well in a Labor debacle.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We'll see them in a while - we've gone into detail on the Greens - go back a couple of pages

[Platypus]

First of today's Indi updates extends McGowan's lead - by 1 vote

[Platypus]

Essentially all ordinary and prepolls counted now, and McGowan's lead is down to 680ish.

Benalla PPVC helped her, but continues the trend - McGowan went from 1,159 to 2,186, Mirabella from 2,400 to 2,641. But it's still helpful to Sophie.

Postals ought to skew towards Mirabella also, so it'll come right down to the line. Neither candidate will win by more than 1,500 votes, and the spread I suspect is anywhere between McGowan by 500 to Mirabella by 1,000. So, edge Sophie.

Unless the Wodonga prepolling centre is more friendly to McGowan than the other ones, as Wodonga as a town has been compared to the other major towns in the electorate. Then we're back to a complete knife-edge, and every chance that it comes down to absolutely nothing.

My cousin voted at the Singapore High Commission, and for McGowan, and her vote will be one of the very last to be counted...I'm dreaming that McGowan wins by 1 vote in about 8 days time

[Platypus]

And now we wait for postals.

Wodonga prepoll is in, and McGowan extends her lead to 1,051, a bit more than I expected tbh.

Wodonga PPVC

McGowan 1st: 3,462 (34.00%)
McGowan TCP: 5,278 (51.84)
Mirabella 1st: 4,445 (43.66%)
Mirabella TCP: 4,903 (48.16%)

I'm bringing the spread in to 500 to McGowan or 750 for Mirabella. Slight edge to Sophie still, but bloody close.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why are the north suburbs of Sydney so conservative? I understand that's where Howard was from too.

I looked at Google Street View and they look pretty, you know, generic. Not like the type of very affluent places that would vote that way.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why are the north suburbs of Sydney so conservative? I understand that's where Howard was from too.

I looked at Google Street View and they look pretty, you know, generic. Not like the type of very affluent places that would vote that way.

It's been blue-ribbon Liberal land for decades... even areas that don't look that 'affluent' are still very much Liberal voting. There's a lot of 'generation Liberalism' people who were raised in it, never left the area, so continue to vote with the herd. I use the big 'L' liberal deliberately - as many are not as socially conservative as those in parts of Western Sydney or in the country - for example, these seats, and those in Eastern Melbourne along with Wentworth have quite socially progressive views, they're very highly educated, higher income but they are economically conservative, they like low taxes etc etc. Plus US perceptions of what an affluent area looks like, can be very misleading.

I should also stress that this area's average age is considerably higher than the rest of the city - there are pockets where the population is shifting towards high-density, younger people who commute into the CBD...

[Platypus]

2nd hand from Leah Ginnivan (Indi campaign manager), is that the McGowan campaign felt they needed to lead by about 1,000 before postals to get up.

They're on 1,051... but the level of postal votes is higher than last time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

While I know it's not Thomson running - I still stunned at how small the margin in Dobell is... 807 votes and closing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

McGowan's lead in shrinking down to 759...

[Platypus]

Postals are doing worse than I expected, and there are plenty of them.

Mirabella will win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Interesting that the lead in Dobell is down to 700

[Hifly]

The liberals now lead in both Mcewen and Barton after some postal ballots have been counted.

[ag]

McGowan's lead in shrinking down to 759...

779 now.

[Platypus]

The scrutineers are clearly having fun. McGowan's lead has been jumping around from 759 to 770, to 779, to 775, to 768, to now on 770.

Meanwhile no more postals have been counted

[Platypus]

It'd make a great chapter of a Jeffrey Archer novel.

Imagine the page discussing whether or not a doctor's seven counts (Mirabella camp had apparently claimed it was a strike-through, invalidating the vote. It didn't work for them, obviously, but just goes to show who the evil ones are in this count.)