Australia 2013 - Results thread
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Author Topic: Australia 2013 - Results thread  (Read 50096 times)
Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #350 on: September 29, 2013, 02:33:00 AM »

How'd everyone else go in their predictions?

Pathetically poorly. Wrong seats:

Incorrect intra-Coalition prediction:
Mallee, VIC

Predicted Coalition (got ALP):
Lingiari, NT
Parramatta, NSW
Werriwa, NSW

Predicted Coalition (got Independent):
Denison, TAS

Predicted Labor (got Coalition):
Barton, NSW
Capricornia, QLD
Dawson, QLD
Herbert, QLD
Hindmarsh, SA
Lyons, TAS
Moreton, QLD
Page, NSW

Predicted WANAT (got Coalition):
Durack, WA
O'Connor, WA

So I got 135/150, or 90.0%. Pretty bad considering, since 2008, my worst US House performance has been 416/435, or 95.6% (obviously the overwhelming majority of both are quite safe seats). And that's without getting to the Senate:

Queensland: Predicted FFP and KAP; got LNP and PUP
New South Wales: Predicted GRN; got LDP
Victoria: Predicted LIB and WIKI; got GRN and AMEP
Tasmania: Predicted LIB; got PUP
South Australia: Predicted ALP; got FFP
Western Australia: Got 2 wrong whatever happens; either mispredicted GRN and WANAT (for LIB and PUP), or ALP and WANAT (for LIB and ASP)
NT: Predicted AFNPP; got ALP
ACT: Predicted GRN; got LIB

So, of 40 seats, I got 29/40 = 72.5% right. That's practically a chemistry quiz.

Don't knock yourself too badly Vosem, you only got two more wrong than I did, and I live down here!
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #351 on: September 29, 2013, 08:04:01 AM »
« Edited: September 29, 2013, 08:06:09 AM by Talleyrand »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=178632.msg3859227#msg3859227

Tasmania
N.A.

Northern Territory
Lingiari (thought Coalition would gain)

South Australia
Adelaide (thought Coalition would gain)
Wakefield (thought Coalition would gain)

Western Australia
N.A.

Victoria
Chisholm (thought Coalition would gain)
Indi (thought Coalition would hold)
Mallee (thought Liberals would gain from Nationals)

Queensland
Blair (thought Coalition would gain)
Fairfax (though Coalition would hold)
Moreton (thought Coalition would gain)

New South Wales
Barton (thought Labor would hold)
Greenway (thought Coalition would gain)
Kingsford Smith (thought Coalition would gain)
Parramatta (though Coalition would gain)
Werriwa (thought Coalition would gain)

So overall I correctly predicted 136/150 seats, or got 90.7% correct. I had expected to do slightly better, but I suppose a Labor defeat on the magnitude I had predicted was highly unlikely to begin with (although I'm still wondering why I left Barton as an ALP hold).
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #352 on: September 29, 2013, 08:41:35 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2013, 11:54:02 PM by Anton Kreitzer »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=178632.msg3859227#msg3859227

Tasmania
N.A.

Northern Territory
Lingiari (thought Coalition would gain)

South Australia
Adelaide (thought Coalition would gain)
Wakefield (thought Coalition would gain)

Western Australia
N.A.

Victoria
Chisholm (thought Coalition would gain)
Indi (thought Coalition would hold)
Mallee (thought Liberals would gain from Nationals)

Queensland
Blair (thought Coalition would gain)
Fairfax (though Coalition would hold)
Moreton (thought Coalition would gain)

New South Wales
Barton (thought Labor would hold)
Greenway (thought Coalition would gain)
Kingsford Smith (thought Coalition would gain)
Parramatta (though Coalition would gain)
Werriwa (thought Coalition would gain)

So overall I correctly predicted 136/150 seats, or got 90.7% correct. I had expected to do slightly better, but I suppose a Labor defeat on the magnitude I had predicted was highly unlikely to begin with (although I'm still wondering why I left Barton as an ALP hold).

I would have posted this in the thread you linked, but that's locked for whatever reason. Looking at the seats you got wrong, while you got only one more seat wrong than me, in terms of seat numbers, I was significantly closer:

My predictions in terms of seat numbers:
Labor: 55
Coalition: 93
Independent: 1
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Greens: 0

Your predictions in terms of seat numbers:
Labor: 45
Coalition: 102
Independent: 1
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Greens: 1

Results:
Labor: 55
Coalition: 90
Independent: 2
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Palmer United Party: 1
Greens: 1
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YL
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« Reply #353 on: September 30, 2013, 03:42:52 PM »

Antony Green's summary of the NT Senate count

Oh, and Palmer's winning margin is currently showing as 3 votes.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #354 on: September 30, 2013, 07:00:43 PM »

In relation to predictions... the ones I put up on 6 September were not my final ones... but they were the ones I put up here, so I have to own them... but I will outline my last-minute predictions from Sat morning too.

I had the Coalition on 87 (90) the ALP on 60 (55) IND/OTH on 3 (5)...

Overall, my problem was I 'reacted' rather than really thinking, which led to me completely underestimating the size of the swings in VIC, SA and especially TAS and overestimating the swings in NSW. I also stupidly overestimated the impact of KAP preferences in FNQ, considering I expected Kennedy to go to preferences, that was blind stupidity on my part.

My Sat morning predictions were a little more realistic. I gave Werriwa and Blair back to the ALP, shifted Eden-Monaro and Lyons into the toss-ups and pushed Hindmarsh into the LNP list and was deeply concerned about Page after a discussion I had with a friend at CHQ, and I also moved Deakin out of the toss-ups to LNP and therefore I felt the ALP primary in Melbourne wasn't going to be high enough to keep Bandt at bay.

So my final FINAL prediction was

LNP: 88
ALP: 58
GRN: 1
KAP: 1
IND: 2 

So I got 11 wrong on the Sat morning predictions - 92.6% and I got 16 on my Friday predictions...  89.3%.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #355 on: September 30, 2013, 09:30:57 PM »

ACT Senators have been determined
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #356 on: October 01, 2013, 12:26:50 AM »

Victorian Senators have been determined

Motoring Enthusiasts Party elected to final spot, despite receiving only about 0.5% of the vote.
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Hifly
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« Reply #357 on: October 01, 2013, 12:41:56 AM »

I think NSW is the only state I didn't do well on. I was almost right on McEwen though.
That Labor net gain in QLD never happened, obviously.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #358 on: October 01, 2013, 01:10:35 AM »

South Australian Senators determined

2 Liberal
1 Xenophon
1 Labor
1 Greens
1 Family First
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #359 on: October 01, 2013, 01:57:41 AM »

Victorian Senators have been determined

Motoring Enthusiasts Party elected to final spot, despite receiving only about 0.5% of the vote.

It's an f'ing joke... nothing more.
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YL
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« Reply #360 on: October 01, 2013, 02:05:44 AM »


Presumably if Labor and the Greens had preferenced Xenophon's running mate ahead of Family First and the Liberals then he would have been elected instead of Family First.

WA is still too close to call, though I think Lab/PUP is now slightly more likely than Greens/Sport.  That count should be done tomorrow.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #361 on: October 01, 2013, 03:09:01 AM »

Victorian Senators have been determined

Motoring Enthusiasts Party elected to final spot, despite receiving only about 0.5% of the vote.

It's an f'ing joke... nothing more.

I'm waiting, with anticipation, for the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters to table its report into the 2013 election. I suspect they will have a fair bit to say on the Senate electoral system, and put forward several recommendations to correct this unbalanced result and disproportionate power of the micro-parties.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #362 on: October 01, 2013, 08:04:42 PM »

NSW Senators have been determined

3 Coalition,
2 Labor,
1 Liberal Democrat.


Queensland Senators have been determined
3 Coalition,
2 Labor,
1 Palmer United.
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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #363 on: October 02, 2013, 01:56:52 AM »

The WA Senate count ended up with Labor/Palmer winning the last two seats, giving Liberal 3 Labor 2 Palmer 1.  The margin between the Shooters & Fishers and the Christians at the critical count was 14 votes (if the Christians had been ahead the last two seats would have been Green/Sports).  The Greens are asking for a recount.

(From Antony Green's blog.)
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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #364 on: October 02, 2013, 02:04:38 AM »

So the full Senate result is
Coalition 17
Labor 13
Greens 3
Palmer 3
Family First 1
Motoring Enthusiast 1
Liberal Democrats 1
Xenophon 1

which makes the new Senate
Coalition 33
Labor 26
Greens 9
Palmer 3
Family First 1
Motoring Enthusiast 1
Liberal Democrats 1
DLP 1
Xenophon 1

(assuming no changes from the likely recount in WA)
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #365 on: October 02, 2013, 04:13:28 PM »

As foreshadowed by YL, the Greens and Sports Party have requested a recount. The AEC is considering the request, as itwould involve recounting every ballot, statewide. The pivotal point in the count hinges on just 14 votes. The decision will be made today.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #366 on: October 03, 2013, 07:14:32 AM »
« Edited: October 03, 2013, 06:19:43 PM by Smid »

Apparently the AEC will not be conducting a recount for WA Senate. I don't know all the finer details of electoral law, but I would assume the decision could be appealed, but I couldn't speculate on the outcome of such a case, if the Greens actually decided to take it to court.

Edit: Link to the AEC Media Release

The news was reporting this morning that the Greens will be appealing the decision.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #367 on: October 09, 2013, 09:07:48 PM »

The Electoral Commissioner has agreed to a recount of WA Senate votes, including all ATL and informal ballots, but not BTL ballots, it would seem.

This represents "over 96% of votes, or 1.25 million of the 1.3 million formal votes."
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #368 on: October 10, 2013, 12:24:25 PM »

So the full Senate result is
Coalition 17
Labor 13
Greens 3
Palmer 3
Family First 1
Motoring Enthusiast 1
Liberal Democrats 1
Xenophon 1

which makes the new Senate
Coalition 33
Labor 26
Greens 9
Palmer 3
Family First 1
Motoring Enthusiast 1
Liberal Democrats 1
DLP 1
Xenophon 1

(assuming no changes from the likely recount in WA)

PUP/ Motoring Enthusiast block 4
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #369 on: October 20, 2013, 07:02:55 PM »

Just to say that party vote maps for the House of Representatives ought to be up tomorrow. Parties done will be the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and Palmers United Fruitcakes. I will probably also do Katter's Australian Fruitcake for Queensland only. A separate WA Nats map is also likely (but their total will be included in the Coalition map as well). There doesn't seem much point in doing other parties.

After all that will come Senate maps...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #370 on: October 23, 2013, 12:19:35 PM »



All a little later than planned, but not much later.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #371 on: October 23, 2013, 12:20:34 PM »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #372 on: October 23, 2013, 12:21:36 PM »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #373 on: October 23, 2013, 12:22:49 PM »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #374 on: October 25, 2013, 07:02:40 PM »

Worth a look: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2013/australia2013mapsindex.shtml
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