Australia 2013 - Results thread

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Labor looks like putting Palmer in Parliament. Good news being, the more seats Labor retains, the less they'll risk a DD on the Carbon Tax.

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Urgently need senate reform.

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Weird results for the Greens. In NSW it looks like they got flogged - big swing against them in Sydney, falling to 3rd in Grayndler....., but in Victoria it looks like they broke even - held onto Melbourne, would've won Batman most likely under 2010 preferences....

Also see Wills.

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2013 Australian Federal Election - Primary Votes
Interim edition, obviously...

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2013 Australian Federal Election - Primary Votes
Interim edition, obviously...

That's odd, it's showing up for me... it's in the Gallery. Will no doubt show up as an X when I update it down the track, but should still work for the time being.

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Statewide 2PP is on the AEC website

Presently working on the 2CP Swing map.

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2013 Australian Federal Election - Two Candidate Preferred Swing
Interim Version


In seats where one party in a 2CP result has changed, the change in the other party's 2CP result has been used. This is the case in Sydney, Grayndler, Lyne, New England, Fairfax, and Durack.

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I'm about halfway through a Palmer primary vote map. I'll have it up shortly, but from what I've seen so far, it looks like it will confirm what Polnut was just saying.

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2013 Australian Federal Election Results - Palmer Primary Vote
Interim Edition


Bigger map in the Gallery, etc. Roughly an inverse to a typical Greens' strength map... Greens' strength has a central epicentre and radiates to lesser strength further from the core. Palmer strength is weakest in the city centres and inner suburbs, and typically seems to gain strength as it reaches the outer suburbs. This is evident in every state, including Queensland, which has some ridiculously high Palmer vote totals. Within the outer suburbs, there seems to be a slightly stronger result in more blue-collar, Labor seats - it's really slight, though, and I could be imagining it (and there are definitely some exceptions). I suspect it may be have been predominantly a blue collar protest option for typically Labor voters who didn't want to vote Coalition (except in Queensland, which is completely different to everywhere else).

For the record, the only electorate with a Palmer vote of less than 1% was Melbourne. The highest Palmer vote was for Palmer himself, in Fairfax. Even there, he only received 27% of the vote, so just over a quarter. If he is elected, it will be due to Labor Party preferences, and the Labor Party will be responsible for the collective national embarrassment.

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2013 Australian Federal Election - Labor Party Primary Vote Swing
Interim Results

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2013 Australian Federal Election - Informal Vote
Interim Results

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Didn't do great in my predictions. Excluding the half dozen or so that are still in doubt, it looks like I have 11 wrong - shouldn't have changed my initial gut feel on Durack, O'Connor and Chisholm.

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Current status of crazy close seats...

Capricornia - ALP 140
McEwen - ALP 73
Barton - ALP 62
Eden-Monaro - Lib 254
Petrie - LNP 600
Reid - Lib 619

Eden-Monaro has been updated by the AEC, and now it's Lib 634. Petrie and Reid haven't actually been updated since election night. I don't know if that means the count is complete or if there are still a significant number of ballots out?

Still a LOT of counting left to do...

I heard earlier today, roughly 14,000 postal votes in McEwen, none of which have been counted (well, they're probably in the process of being counted, but they're not online yet). Rechecking seems to be being updated, though - the margin there changed from 73 to 72 sometime this afternoon...

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Do we know how many postals have been cast in the above 5 seats (or if they've been counted yet/when they'll be counted)?

The link is available. I'll find it for you later, if someone doesn't post it earlier.

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Question: Does anyone have an up-to-date 2CP map?

Postal votes have 13 days to be received after the election, so long as they are sent before the election (ie, 13 days to arrive from overseas), and they are still counting absentee, postals and pre-poll that have already been arrived, anyway.

I won't be making a 2CP map until they finish counting, and will update swing maps, etc, then.

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I'm pretty sure full preference counts are undertaken in all seats, and published on the AEC website (go to "Divisional and Polling Place Results" and then select "Full Distribution of Preferences"). Here is Maranoa in 2010.

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There seems to have been one change in ABC's provisional Senate results: Palmer's party are no longer getting a seat in Tasmania.  But the Motoring Enthusiast in Victoria and the Sports Party candidate in WA are still shown as winning seats.

... and now that last Tasmanian seat is shown as going to the Sex Party.

When will final results be known?

My memory is somewhat foggy, but I believe that so long as they were posted before the election, postal votes have 13 days to be received by the Returning Officer (in other words, Friday, two weeks after the election, that is to say, in another couple of days). Most postal votes, coming from locations in Australia, are received quickly and able to be counted earlier in the days following the election, but the thirteen days' grace period is useful for postals coming in from overseas. In most seats, a small bundle of postal votes will remain uncounted until after the mail has been delivered on the final day postal votes can be received. That way, if only one postal vote is received on that day, no one will be able to tell how that voter voted (as their ballot will be added to the small batch remaining). This is why the final few hundred postal votes are unlikely to diminish over the next few days.

As for Palmer, I suspect he never thought he'd win, and didn't actually want to (as this would require him to hand control of his company over to someone else, while he took a seat on the backbench, where he will receive very little attention). I think this is why he was calling for a fresh election in his seat, despite having a sizeable lead at the time, and everyone assuming he would win. I think he may be somewhat relieved if that lead continues to evaporate. Of course, not being successful in politics is unlikely to dissuade him from desperately seeking attention and airing his views on issues, after all, the guy's ego is even larger than his substantial girth.

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It's a shame Rudd wasn't so gracious in his concession speech.

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I suspect any change to the system will bee after the Joint Electoral Maters Committee tables its Report into the 2013, which will, I'd assume, mention the rise of the micro-parties with representation radically different to their votes, and provide recommendations, at last one of which would likely be a reform of the Senate electoral method. The Government must then table its response to the recommendations, and one would assume it would embrace whatever recommendations emerge from the Report.

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A computer does do it, but the votes need to be entered into a computer first. There were 97 candidates in Victoria, and even more in NSW, so entering Below-the-Line votes can take some considerable time. Postal votes are able to be received for thirteen days after the election, provided they were posted before the election day (to allow for votes to be received from eligible voters overseas). As ag said, due to the electoral method used in the Senate, even a small number of votes can change the outcome.

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Senate results in Tasmania and Northern Territory have been finalised:

Tasmania
2 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Greens
1 Palmer United

Northern Territory
1 Country Liberal
1 Labor

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So neither the sports joke party nor the sex joke party ended up with Senate seats? That's a shame. The cars joke party will be all alone with the mining magnate personality cult joke party.

(I don't think all minor parties are joke parties but these ones are pretty ridiculous.)

No, only Tasmania and the Northern Territory have been finalised. The Motoring Enthusiasts Party was looking best in Victoria, and the Sports Party is WA.

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The Sex Party isn't a joke party as much as the others. they're a left liberal party with a joke name but a valid place on the political spectrum.

They are indeed a fairly libertarian party, however the name is not so much a joke, many of their candidates seem to be sex workers or strippers.

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I got:
Two wrong in Queensland;
Four wrong in NSW;
Three wrong in Victoria;
One wrong in Tasmania; 
One wrong in the Northern Territory;
One wrong in South Australia; and
Two wrong in Western Australia.

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ACT Senators have been determined