Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Talleyrand]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

Here is an ABC News Livestream (Geoblock has been removed).

[Talleyrand]

There's a very nasty 15.4% swing to the Liberals in Lyons, Tasmania, and the ALP is trailing in all seats except Franklin, where they appear to be holding on narrowly with only an 8.2% swing.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/pendulum/

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/map/

ABC has a pendulum and maps.

[Talleyrand]

ABC's computer almost always makes premature calls, IIRC, so it doesn't mean much in Bruce, but it's still extremely close (and Smid's prediction seems to be coming to fruition).

[Talleyrand]

It looks like there'll be a very painful swing against Labor in Lingiari, with the CLP candidate on 58.7% of TPP (although only 5/71 booths are in) against Warren Snowdon. In Darwin-based Solomon, it looks like there's a tiny swing to the CLP so far.

[Talleyrand]

Mirabella isn't safe by any means, as we don't have preference counts yet. Antony Green said that the computer is incorrect in this case, so it's closer than it appears.

It looks like Bandt has held on, if estimated preferences are correct.

[Talleyrand]

Greenway looks excellent, a 3.5% swing or so to the ALP so far, which would allow them to hold the seat with between 54% to 55% of the vote. Looks like Diaz really was a dud candidate.

Dobbell is VERY very close, and Labor's narrowly ahead (although it's fluctuating around 50-50). Same situation in Solomon.

[Talleyrand]

Solomon... ALP gain?

The ALP computer seems to think that's a 50-50 shot, but that's estimating the preferences for several booths (the CLP is leading overall in the 13 booths which have been redistributed). 

[Talleyrand]

In another Sydney seat which had been counted as a somewhat likely loss prior to tonight, Parramatta, Labor's Julie Owens seems to be holding her seat with 51.2% of the vote, suffering a 3.3% swing to the Liberals.

[Talleyrand]

...There's definitely a glitch on the Senate calculations on ABC's website

[Talleyrand]

Some early results are in from the two vast rural seats in WA, and the WA Nationals are doing well. In Durack, held by retiring Liberal Barry Haase, they're up with 52.9% of the vote, a solid swing in their favor, while they're holding on so far in O'Connor with 50.9% of the vote, a 2.7% swing to the Liberals.

[Talleyrand]

Rudd has announced his resignation as Labor leader.

[Talleyrand]

Current status of crazy close seats...

Capricornia - ALP 140
McEwen - ALP 73
Barton - ALP 62
Eden-Monaro - Lib 254
Petrie - LNP 600
Reid - Lib 619

Eden-Monaro has been updated by the AEC, and now it's Lib 634. Petrie and Reid haven't actually been updated since election night. I don't know if that means the count is complete or if there are still a significant number of ballots out?

[Talleyrand]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=178632.msg3859227#msg3859227

Tasmania
N.A.

Northern Territory
Lingiari (thought Coalition would gain)

South Australia
Adelaide (thought Coalition would gain)
Wakefield (thought Coalition would gain)

Western Australia
N.A.

Victoria
Chisholm (thought Coalition would gain)
Indi (thought Coalition would hold)
Mallee (thought Liberals would gain from Nationals)

Queensland
Blair (thought Coalition would gain)
Fairfax (though Coalition would hold)
Moreton (thought Coalition would gain)

New South Wales
Barton (thought Labor would hold)
Greenway (thought Coalition would gain)
Kingsford Smith (thought Coalition would gain)
Parramatta (though Coalition would gain)
Werriwa (thought Coalition would gain)

So overall I correctly predicted 136/150 seats, or got 90.7% correct. I had expected to do slightly better, but I suppose a Labor defeat on the magnitude I had predicted was highly unlikely to begin with (although I'm still wondering why I left Barton as an ALP hold).