Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This thread will be unlocked by me at some point after I wake up. If this does not happen for whatever reason, that someone else should establish a Results thread when the polls close.

The usual rules apply: a bit of overt delight or horror at overall or individual results is perfectly acceptable, but try to avoid partisan droning (there are better places for that) or personal attacks.

Those that break these rules will be transported to Botany Bay for ten years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like the much anticipated Western Sydney collapse has not actually happened: probably because much of the swing happened last time round. Media Egg Faces?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tasmania results are unfortunate, but the state government is less popular than death, so there you are. At least one seat saved though. Which is something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Capricornia is fun

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Flagging up Bendigo as a possible bucket of cold sick...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparentlky the biggest swing in NSW is Fowler... 11.6% to Labor? Whaaa?

People should pay more attention to my posts

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, Mallee. Nat 40/Lib 25/ALP 19...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Be careful with the calls - in practice they're very provisional in nature. It's not unusual for a seat to be called and to be eventually won by 'tuther lot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lyons has tightened again; probably still gone, but you never know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You also have several independents polling non-tiny (if still amusingly low given the egos) amounts, and maybe there are issues there or whatever.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Basic pattern very clear now. Can expect some of the usual weird goings on in the seats that are close, but that won't be settled for a while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wrt to Lingiari, always remember that the mobile booths tend to come in quite late. And that much of the swing seen in the Territory election had already happened federally. Way too early to call, and always was.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BUT they have the Palmer votes going half-half, and I suspect they'll go more like 66-33. It'll be line-ball, but I reckon Mitchell's got up.

Could this be an issue in other close seats?

(I don't know the details of the counting set up as well as you).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's because the 'calls' aren't really calls. Quite a lot can still move around the edges as counting progresses.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The scale is basically just designed to show us what we need to know (i.e. where is close and where is super close) rather than the full picture in All Its Questionable Glory. Because there's no point doing the latter for a while yet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results in the Hunter are interesting: decent (given everything) Labor results in three seats out of four, the exception being Hunter. Which has since the 1980s been a very rural seat with a lot of natural Nationals territory, but personal votes eventually made that look to be not so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, this wasn't a landslide. Solid victory though.

Detailed results can be found in various places, but http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/ and http://www.aec.gov.au/results are your best bets.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One interesting result wrt the Greens is that they seem to be out of even potential contention in the division of Sydney: down to 17% on primaries, which is 13pts behind the Liberals. This is the lowest they've been for over a decade. They lost ground in Grayndler as well (and dropped back to third) but not as much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mallee currently looks like: Nat 39.6, Lib 26.8, ALP 17.3

I think that would mean a hold for the straw-chewers?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One interesting result wrt the Greens is that they seem to be out of even potential contention in the division of Sydney: down to 17% on primaries, which is 13pts behind the Liberals. This is the lowest they've been for over a decade. They lost ground in Grayndler as well (and dropped back to third) but not as much.

They won a seat in the last NSW state elections, no? Which division is that in? (or am I misremembering?)

They - just about - managed to win Balmain, which is split between Grayndler and Sydney in federal terms. But that was only because NSW Labor imploded.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Booth results are up on the AEC site already (yay for sad people like us!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results in the Hunter are interesting: decent (given everything) Labor results in three seats out of four, the exception being Hunter. Which has since the 1980s been a very rural seat with a lot of natural Nationals territory, but personal votes eventually made that look to be not so.

As sort-of-expected double digit swings at that end (Muswellbrook, Singleton, etc) of the division, a rather more mixed picture elsewhere. Did the Nationals actually try for once?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, at least Burnie still voted Labor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Current status of crazy close seats...

Capricornia - ALP 140
McEwen - ALP 73
Barton - ALP 62
Eden-Monaro - Lib 254
Petrie - LNP 600
Reid - Lib 619

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labor carried Broken Hill, which is hardly surprising but is nice for the mindlessly sentimental amongst us.