Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Clive Palmer still in with a shot in Fairfax, surprised Dick Adams lost Lyons though. I must admit I'm glad Jaymes Diaz lost Greenway though, he would have been a bad member.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Looks like I was wrong about Eden-Monaro, underestimated Kelly's personal vote there.

Results are finally beginning to shape up over my way (WA), so far the Nationals are up in Durack, and big pro-Liberal swings in Moore and Canning. Labor look like they will hold their 3 seats, and have so far managed to get a swing to them in my seat (Cowan).

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All I'll say about Rudd is "good riddance." About the next PM, il a gagné ses épaulettes.

I've been waiting for this day for a long time, well done Mr. Abbott and the Coalition!

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Fairfax?

Still undecided, Palmer leads 51.9-48.1 on 2PP terms.

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ABC currently showing the Australian Sports Party, whoever they are, getting a seat in the Senate from WA with 0.22% of the first preference vote.  Even if it doesn't stay like that, it really makes this above the line system look ridiculous, and I say that as someone who likes the basic idea of STV.

Maybe more people voted below the line this election? I know I did.

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How'd everyone else go in their predictions? Now the results are virtually settled, here's how I went:

For my full list of predictions, please visit these posts:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168631.msg3858362#msg3858362
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168631.msg3858366#msg3858366

I got the following seats wrong:
Barton (thought Labor would hold)
Capricornia (thought Labor would hold)
Durack (thought the Nationals would gain)
Fairfax (thought Palmer would lose)
Franklin (thought the Liberals would gain)
Greenway (thought the Liberals would gain)
Indi (thought the Liberals would hold)
Lingiari (thought the CLP would gain)
Lyons (thought Labor would hold)
Melbourne (thought the Greens would lose)
Moreton (thought the LNP would gain)
O'Connor (thought the Nationals would hold)
Petrie (thought Labor would hold)

So 13 out of 150 wrong, or a 91.333% score

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How'd everyone else go in their predictions?

Pathetically poorly. Wrong seats:

Incorrect intra-Coalition prediction:
Mallee, VIC

Predicted Coalition (got ALP):
Lingiari, NT
Parramatta, NSW
Werriwa, NSW

Predicted Coalition (got Independent):
Denison, TAS

Predicted Labor (got Coalition):
Barton, NSW
Capricornia, QLD
Dawson, QLD
Herbert, QLD
Hindmarsh, SA
Lyons, TAS
Moreton, QLD
Page, NSW

Predicted WANAT (got Coalition):
Durack, WA
O'Connor, WA

So I got 135/150, or 90.0%. Pretty bad considering, since 2008, my worst US House performance has been 416/435, or 95.6% (obviously the overwhelming majority of both are quite safe seats). And that's without getting to the Senate:

Queensland: Predicted FFP and KAP; got LNP and PUP
New South Wales: Predicted GRN; got LDP
Victoria: Predicted LIB and WIKI; got GRN and AMEP
Tasmania: Predicted LIB; got PUP
South Australia: Predicted ALP; got FFP
Western Australia: Got 2 wrong whatever happens; either mispredicted GRN and WANAT (for LIB and PUP), or ALP and WANAT (for LIB and ASP)
NT: Predicted AFNPP; got ALP
ACT: Predicted GRN; got LIB

So, of 40 seats, I got 29/40 = 72.5% right. That's practically a chemistry quiz.

Don't knock yourself too badly Vosem, you only got two more wrong than I did, and I live down here!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=178632.msg3859227#msg3859227

Tasmania
N.A.

Northern Territory
Lingiari (thought Coalition would gain)

South Australia
Adelaide (thought Coalition would gain)
Wakefield (thought Coalition would gain)

Western Australia
N.A.

Victoria
Chisholm (thought Coalition would gain)
Indi (thought Coalition would hold)
Mallee (thought Liberals would gain from Nationals)

Queensland
Blair (thought Coalition would gain)
Fairfax (though Coalition would hold)
Moreton (thought Coalition would gain)

New South Wales
Barton (thought Labor would hold)
Greenway (thought Coalition would gain)
Kingsford Smith (thought Coalition would gain)
Parramatta (though Coalition would gain)
Werriwa (thought Coalition would gain)

So overall I correctly predicted 136/150 seats, or got 90.7% correct. I had expected to do slightly better, but I suppose a Labor defeat on the magnitude I had predicted was highly unlikely to begin with (although I'm still wondering why I left Barton as an ALP hold).

I would have posted this in the thread you linked, but that's locked for whatever reason. Looking at the seats you got wrong, while you got only one more seat wrong than me, in terms of seat numbers, I was significantly closer:

My predictions in terms of seat numbers:
Labor: 55
Coalition: 93
Independent: 1
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Greens: 0

Your predictions in terms of seat numbers:
Labor: 45
Coalition: 102
Independent: 1
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Greens: 1

Results:
Labor: 55
Coalition: 90
Independent: 2
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Palmer United Party: 1
Greens: 1